washington, dc

The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

staff

Is Trump Tanking in the Polls?

A transcript  excerpt from “Trump Is Failing and Unpopular—Brutal New Polls Confirm It,”  featuring  Greg Sargent’s interview at The New Republic with Lakshya Jain, a political data analyst and partner at Split Ticket, an organization devoted to mapping, modeling, and presenting electoral data through an approach driven by data science.” Note that the interview was conducted before the political fallout following Tuesday’s government shutdown and Quantico meeting:

What if we told you that Donald Trump is a really unpopular president? Would that surprise you? It’s certainly not something you hear much in the media. Yet in the last few days, five big national polls have come out showing Trump’s approval numbers in really terrible shape. This is even more visible on specific issues—on many of them, he’s polling in the thirties. He’s underwater on his supposedly strongest issue of immigration too.

And on top of that, a number of his most dramatic moments recently seem to have flopped for him—from the effort to fire comedian Jimmy Kimmel to the indictment of former FBI Director Jim Comey. Lakshya Jain, the co-founder of the data firm Split Ticket and head of political data at The Argument, has been making the case that Trump isn’t actually in such a strong position right now politically. So we’re going to talk about how the heck we can get this basic political fact—that Trump is very unpopular—more broadly understood. Lakshya, good to have you on.

Lakshya Jain: Hey, thanks for having me.

Sargent: So I’m just going to start with some numbers. The new Quinnipiac poll has Trump’s approval at an abysmal 38 percent, while 54 percent disapprove. The new Associated Press poll has him at 39 percent approving to 60 percent disapproving. The new Gallup poll has him at 40 percent to 56 percent. Reuters has him at 41 percent, and the new Economist/YouGov poll has him at 39–56. Lakshya, those numbers are bad. What’s your reading of these findings?

Jain: Oh, they’re horrible. And you know, this is as bad as I can remember it being for a first-year president, so to say. This is the second term, but it’s still the period in time at which the president’s approval ratings are generally at their highest. You know, Joe Biden ended his tenure extremely poorly in the court of public opinion, but it’s really important to remember that Biden was not this unpopular at this point in time in his first year. Trump is at levels that have only really been approached by Trump 1.0. That’s it.

That’s the only historical comparable. But Greg, what’s interesting to me, if I may, is that the disapproval this time is of a completely different nature, and I would argue a far more damaging nature than the first time around, because the first time around, it was centered around his abuse of the office, or so to say, people thinking he was unfit to lead the country. But people liked the economy. People really liked the economy under Trump. His economic numbers were consistently positive or break even the first time around. This time, what’s happening is people really hate Trump not for the abuse of office. They hate him for the economy.

Sargent: Well, let’s talk about some economic numbers, because if you drill down into these polls, they look even more gruesome for Trump. The Quinnipiac poll has Trump on the economy at 39 percent approving to 56 percent disapproving. On trade, he’s at 39 to 54. The AP poll has Trump on the economy at 37 to 62. On trade, 36 to 63.

So those numbers really bear out your point. And I think maybe what a lot of people haven’t really gotten their heads around, as well, is how bad the tariffs are for Trump. Can you talk about sort of how that stew has developed? He’s getting much more of what he wanted on the economy this time than he did last time, ironically enough, and that’s worse for him.

Jain: He’s getting much more of what he wanted, and people are getting much more of what he wanted. That’s important to note. And they all hate it, because the thing is the American people elected Donald Trump because they felt that Joe Biden was at fault for inflation.

And they thought that, given Trump’s economy and given how they felt Biden was unfit to lead, Trump would do a better job stewarding the economy. But this time around, they think he’s been obsessed with things like the woke culture wars and about persecuting his political opponents, and not focused enough on issues that they care about.

You know, when people say, the American people don’t care about all these things that elites think they do. I mean, that goes both ways, right? Like, yes, the democratic championing of norms has not worked out for them. And that is true. That is unquestionably true. But it is also true that Trump trying to focus all of his efforts on, you know, prosecuting his political opponents and going after them is also seen poorly because people don’t care about that. They’re like, why are you focused on that? My bills are so high.

Read more here.


Teixeira: The Poverty Wages of Democratic Resistance

The following article, “The Poverty Wages of Democratic Resistance,’ by Ruy Teixeira, politics editor of The Liberal Patriot newsletter, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of major works of political analysis, is cross-posted from The Liberal Patriot:

Welp, Trump is pretty unpopular and his ratings are very poor on a number of key issues, including the economy and inflation. But Democrats as a party don’t seem to be benefiting. Far from it, as illustrated by these data showing which party has a better plan on various issues from a just-released Reuters/Ipsos poll:



As Democrats clutch their tattered garments about them and mutter angrily that this is all the thanks they get for their noble resistance to the evil Trump, one might venture the suggestion that it is time to try a different approach.

Nah. Time for more of the same. The #Resistance is surely just about to break through if Democrats are sufficiently militant. Hence the gathering momentum for forcing a government shutdown to extract concessions from the GOP. One slight problem: it won’t work. The concessions will not be forthcoming, Democrats will be forced to back down and they will be blamed for the negative effects of the shutdown. But at least they’ll be resisting and doing something.

This is as dumb as it sounds. Much the same could be said about Democrats’ urge to turn it up to 11 on each and every move by Trump and his administration. Is there a person in this country today who does not already know Democrats hate Trump and think everything he does is terrible?

I don’t think so which suggests that continuing to inform voters of this fact can only have limited effectiveness, especially in convincing them that Democrats are a superior alternative to Trump’s party. Take the issue of immigration. Democrats have not stinted in their intense criticism of the actions of ICE agents, including comparing their actions to that of a “modern-day Gestapo.” And it is true that many of these actions have not been popular with the public.

Yet as noted above Republicans are still widely preferred on handling immigration—especially among working-class voters. It would appear that Democrats’ fusillade of criticism of ICE is not convincing voters Democrats have better ideas on how to handle immigration challenges. And why should it? The Democrats’ utter disaster on immigration policy under the Biden administration will not be so easily forgotten.

Josh Barro makes the relevant points:

For too long, Mr. Biden and his team asserted they couldn’t stop the surge without new legislation. That proved false: In 2024, having failed to get an immigration bill through Congress, Mr. Biden finally took executive actions to curb abuse of the asylum system and slow the flow of migrants across the southern border. When Mr. Trump took office, illegal border crossings slowed to a trickle. In other words, the problem had been fixable all along; Mr. Biden simply did not fix it until much too late.

Barro acknowledges that some Democratic commentators and policy shops are (finally) grappling with the need to fix a flat-out broken asylum system and other dysfunctional aspects of the immigration regime Democrats presided over. But there is a notable lack of appetite for dealing with the flash point of deportations/ICE other than denouncing the Trump administration. This is no small omission and indeed undercuts any attempt to portray Democrats as truly reformed on the issue of immigration.

[Democratic immigration policy] won’t work without a robust and credible commitment to enforcement, including interior enforcement (emphasis added). That’s because you can make whatever rules you want about who is supposed to immigrate and how, but if you continue to allow millions of people to come live in the United States in contravention of those rules, the immigration situation on the ground will not match what is written in policy.

The mental block that Democrats have here relates to an instinct about deportations: a feeling that it’s presumptively improper to remove an unauthorized immigrant who has settled in our country if that migrant hasn’t committed a crime unrelated to immigration. These people have been here a long time, the idea goes. They’re not causing trouble.

But if we build a system where people very often get to stay here simply because they made it in—the system that prevailed during most of Mr. Biden’s term—then we don’t really have an immigration policy, and voters won’t have any reason to believe us when we say our new policy will produce different results about who comes here.

Liberals also note, accurately, that there are negative economic consequences to a stepped-up program of interior enforcement that doesn’t focus narrowly on criminals…But these near-term economic costs need to be weighed against the way that stepped-up interior enforcement makes any future immigration policy more credible and more effective by sending migrants the message that they need a valid visa to stay in the United States.

The need to make a credible enforcement threat does not require Democrats to endorse specific enforcement practices of the Trump administration…Democrats are right…to call for a more effectively targeted approach. But that more targeted approach still needs to contemplate that being in the country without authorization is reason enough to deport someone (emphasis added).

Yup, this will be a hard one for Democrats to surrender on. But surrender they must. Otherwise, why should voters take them seriously?

Much the same is true of the crime issue. Democrats are more than happy to call out Trump actions like putting the National Guard in Washington DC (not needed, everything’s great!) and his threats to do the same in other cities. Again, specific actions by Trump are not necessarily popular but the Democrats’ furious denunciations are doing nothing to rehabilitate their image on public safety, as witnessed by the data above. Far more important is Democrats’ association with horrific crimes like the Charlotte, NC, knife murder of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska on a light rail train by a deranged individual who should no way have been on that train. If Democrats cannot be trusted to keep psychotic criminals off the street, why would/should voters trust Democrats over Republicans to handle public safety? It does not compute.

Basically, Democrats have two choices: they can be a loyal soldier in the #Resistance or they can be a different kind of Democrat, with emphasis on the “different.” Leaning into the former makes it very difficult, if not impossible, to be the latter. Democrats’ revealed preference at this point is to stick with the #Resistance and pursue various subterfuges to avoid the need to truly change their positions—even if the return on that strategy continues to be meager. Marc Novicoff in The Atlantic points out:

[E]ven the elected Democrats most insistent on the need for change seem focused on adjustments to the party’s communication style, rather than to its substantive positions. One school of thought holds that Democrats can woo cross-pressured voters without having to compromise on policy at all, as long as they switch up their vocabulary…A related theory of rhetorical moderation is about emphasis, not word choice. Because Democrats are much closer to the median voter on bread-and-butter material issues than Republicans are, perhaps they just need to talk more about their popular economic ideas and less about their unpopular social-issue positions…

For Democrats to appeal to cultural conservatives, some of them probably have to actually be more culturally conservative than what the party has offered in recent years, and not just adopt a different affect or ignore social issues entirely. Or they could simply cross their fingers and hope voters spontaneously adopt new perceptions about the party. That strategy offends no one and incurs little risk. That’s why it’s unlikely to work.

Damon Linker boils the challenge down to its uncomfortable essence:

The only sure way to defeat Trumpism is to defeat it at the ballot box. But the only way to defeat it at the ballot box is for opponents of right-wing populism to improve their showing in elections. And the only way for opponents of right-wing populism to improve their showing in elections is for them to stop driving voters who want tougher policies on crime and immigration, along with less embrace of the progressive outlook on race and gender, into the arms of the Trumpified Republican Party…

There really is only one option [for Democratic success]…promising to give the voters some of what Trump is offering them, but with greater restraint, competence, and humanity.

This cannot be done through the #Resistance playbook. It’s really that simple. Will Democrats wake up to this fact or continue drawing their poverty-level political wages? We shall see as 2026 and, more threateningly, 2028 loom ahead.


Republicans Seek Control of TV and Movies

In his latest opinion essay at The New York Times, Thomas B. Edsall reports on the Republican’s efforts to control America’s media. An excerpt:

While the Trump administration continues to attack free speech, criminalize adversaries and attempt to crush liberal foundations, conservative billionaires have acquired Paramount and CBS, stand in line to own Warner Bros. Discovery and are positioned to extend right-wing control of social media platforms well beyond Elon Musk’s X.

Larry Ellison, the multibillionaire who founded Oracle — together with his son David — is building a media empire rivaling that of Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan. This gives the Ellisons extraordinary power to shape the nation’s politics and culture, just as the Murdochs have for decades through Fox News, News Corp, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Post.

After winning approval from the Federal Communications Commission, Skydance Media, founded by David Ellison with financial support from his father, acquired Paramount for $8 billion on Aug. 7. The deal gave him command of one of the four major networks and one of the five major Hollywood studios, as well as of Comedy Central and Showtime.

On June 18, President Trump endorsed the Skydance acquisitionwhile it was pending before the commission, telling White House reporters: “Ellison is great. He’ll do a great job with it.”

…Two conservative companies, Sinclair and Nexstar Media Group, own, operate or provide services to 386 television stations, far more than any of their competitors. Nexstar has entered into an agreement to acquire Tegna, which, if approved by regulators, would push the total number of stations controlled by Sinclair and Nexstar to 450.

Nexstar currently reaches 70 percent of U.S. households, and that will rise to 80 percent if it wins approval of its purchase of Tegna’s 64 stations. Sinclair’s stations reach 58 to 66 percent of U.S. households, depending on the measure used.

At least two political science papers have reported that after Sinclair buys a television station and sets programming policy, the Republican share of the local vote rises by 3 to 5 percentage points. One is “Small Screen, Big Echo? Political Persuasion of Local TV News: Evidence From Sinclair” by Antonela Miho of the Paris School of Economics; the other is “How Does Local TV News Change Viewers’ Attitudes? The Case of Sinclair Broadcasting” by Matthew Levendusky of the University of Pennsylvania.

Read the entire essay here.


A Primer for Dems on the Best Research on Childhood Vaccines

Democrats who want to get up to speed on “Childhood vaccines: What research shows about their safety and potential side effects” should read Naseem S. Miller’s article of the same title at Journalist’s Resource, a stub of which is cross-posted here:

This explainer about childhood vaccines, originally published on Feb. 26, was updated on Sept. 19 to explain new recommendations from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice.

Dr. Sean O’Leary, chair of the Committee on Infectious Diseases at the American Academy of Pediatrics, studies vaccines and immunization for a living. And if you ask him to summarize what we know about vaccines, he’ll tell you, without hesitation, that vaccines work.

“The science behind vaccines is very clear,” says O’Leary, a professor of pediatrics and infectious diseases at the University of Colorado School of Medicine and Children’s Hospital Colorado. “The benefits outweigh the risks.”

We created this tip sheet and research-based primer on the heels of the confirmation of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a long-time vaccine skeptic who now leads the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

During a time when even Sen. Bill Cassidy, a physician and lifelong advocate of vaccinations, voted for Kennedy’s confirmation, it’s important for journalists to clearly communicate what’s known about the safety of routine childhood vaccines — and dispel myths about their dangers.

We’ve gathered the following resources in this vaccine primer:

Read more here.


Reifowitz: Dems Must Recapture Obama’s Vision of American Identity

Ruy Teixeira recommends the following article, “How Democrats Lost Obama’s Vision of American Identity by Ian Reifowitz, cross-posted here from The Liberal Patriot:

Ask people what single line they remember about Barack Obama’s 2004 speech at the Democratic National Convention, and most will quote his words about unity, about there not being a black, white, Latino, or Asian America, but rather the United States of America.1But he also recognized the necessity of connecting the language of American unity to progressive policy goals. As Obama described his personal views:

[W]e are connected as one people. If there’s a child on the south side of Chicago who can’t read, that matters to me, even if it’s not my child. If there’s a senior citizen somewhere who can’t pay for her prescription and has to choose between medicine and the rent, that makes my life poorer, even if it’s not my grandmother.

Barack Obama recognized that persuading people to back policies (or candidates like himself) that call for sharing resources with others first required convincing them to identify with those other people as members of the same community—namely the American people.

Obama’s soaring depiction of our country’s story, in which we’ve committed terrible wrongs in the past but also drawn upon our founding documents and values to make remarkable progress, resonated with enough Americans to elect and re-elect him to the presidency with commanding margins—a feat accomplished by none of the Democratic Party’s three subsequent presidential candidates.

It should be obvious that Donald Trump’s vision of America represents something like the antithesis of Obama’s. What’s less obvious but equally important is that Democratic politicians—influenced by far-left academics—have in important ways departed from how the 44th president talks about our history and our national identity in the years since he left office.

Obama’s approach centers on the need to actively inculcate a sense of peoplehood that unifies Americans of every kind, even as it makes space for identities based on race, culture, religion, and more. He understood that a healthy society requires a concept of America within which people of all backgrounds can find themselves. People need to feel a sense of belonging, a sense of identity, something that connects them to a larger purpose. A concept of Americanness—a liberal patriotism—that can connect Americans to one another across boundaries is crucial to countering Trumpism broadly and racial/ethnic tribalism more specifically. Obama’s integrative vision of our national identity provides an ideological foundation for what political scientist Robert Putnam called “bridging social capital.”

Invoking Dr. Martin Luther King, Obama, in his final State of the Union, called on Americans to reject “voices urging us to fall back into our respective tribes, to scapegoat fellow citizens who don’t look like us, or pray like us, or vote like we do, or share the same background.” He called on us instead to be “inspired by those…voices that help us see ourselves not, first and foremost, as black or white, or Asian or Latino, not as gay or straight, immigrant or native-born, not as Democrat or Republican, but as Americans first, bound by a common creed.”

Where the Academic Left’s Critique of Obama Misses the Mark

The academic left broke with Obama on three critical issues: how much commonality exists across racial lines, the trajectory of history, and whether to emphasize universal or race-specific programs. These ideas raise important questions that are vital to debate and discuss. However, they are often not only problematic on the merits but also profoundly harmful to the Democratic brand.

Embrace of Race Essentialism

First, there’s the question of whether to highlight commonality across lines of race versus stressing the differences, the latter sometimes to the point of race essentialism. Obama constantly emphasized the former in a balanced way, as he did in his “A More Perfect Union: Race, Politics, and Unifying Our Country” address in 2008: “Let us find that common stake we all have in one another, and let our politics reflect that spirit as well.” Likewise, here’s the 44th president on December 6, 2024, at the Obama Foundation Democracy Forum: “Pluralism does not require us to deny our unique identities or experiences, but it does require that we try to understand the identities and experiences of others and to look for common ground.”

Obama’s approach sharply contrasts with the race essentialist mindset that characterizes the views of Robin DiAngelo, author of White Fragility. In a statement that reflects her core beliefs, she urgedwhite people to accept that “your race shaped every aspect of your life from the moment that you took your first breath.” Race is certainly an important influence on any American’s life, but DiAngelo’s statement flattens out the wide range of the lives white Americans live. Rhetoric and policy based on such ideas cannot help but fail to adequately address the real struggles of poor whites, who remain the majority of Americans living in poverty.

The Denial of Racial Progress

A second area of disagreement concerns the degree to which we have made progress reducing racism over the course of American history. In the “A More Perfect Union” speech, then-Senator Obama contrasted his view with that of his left-wing former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, in terms that could also apply to the academic left in more recent years. The problem was not in calling out racism but instead in speaking,

as if no progress had been made; as if this country…is still irrevocably bound to a tragic past. But what we know—what we have seen—is that America can change. That is the true genius of this nation. What we have already achieved gives us hope—the audacity to hope—for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.

In a sharp contrast, from its very first paragraph, The 1619 Projectlaid out its founding principle. It contends that the idea our country was born on July 4, 1776, “is wrong, and that the country’s true birth date, the moment that its defining contradictions first came into the world, was in late August of 1619”—when the first enslaved Africans arrived on our shores. At that point, “America was not yet America, but this was the moment it began.” Subsequently, The New York Times, which published this collection of essays, softened this claim as well as other similarly provocative language after receiving pushback from scholars and others. Nevertheless, the core of the argument remains that the enslavement of Africans in what would become the United States—a truly horrific, despicable practice that has no doubt cast a long shadow and still matters today—is the single most important event in our history, more important than the act of creating the nation itself.

Leaving aside the accuracy of this highly questionable assertion, a Democratic Party seen as believing it has no chance of being entrusted with governing our country. The Brahmin Left, however, ate it up, and The 1619 Project, about which historians have raised some serious questions, won the Pulitzer Prize. Similarly, Ta-Nehisi Coates, expressing sentiments that stand diametrically opposed to Obama’s, asserted about black Americans: “We were never meant to be part of the American story.” He says this without qualification. The statement is totalizing and eternal. Coates’s words carry real anguish, caused by racism, that all Democratic officials should understand, but this view fails to acknowledge progress, and its complete embrace would leave the Democratic Party with a politically unpopular worldview that makes it less able to enact positive change through policy.

The Support for Racial Preferences

A third area of at least partial disagreement centers on the question of whether to support universal programs—which disproportionately benefit Americans of color—versus those that explicitly target Americans by race. In The Audacity of Hope, Obama wrote, “An emphasis on universal, as opposed to race-specific, programs isn’t just good policy; it’s also good politics.” He also explained:

The only thing I cannot do is…pass laws that say I’m just helping black folks. I’m the president of the entire United States. What I can do is make sure that I am passing laws that help all people, particularly those who are most vulnerable and most in need. That in turn is going to help lift up the African American community.

Compare this to what Ibram X. Kendi wrote in the first edition of How to Be An Anti-Racist, perhaps the ur-text of the race essentialist academic left: “Racial discrimination is not inherently racist. The defining question is whether the discrimination is creating equity or inequity. If discrimination is creating equity, then it is antiracist.” Kendi altered this section in a subsequent edition, after facing criticism. What he wrote provided the intellectual foundation for the push in policy for equity. It stands in direct opposition to what Obama expressed in the “A More Perfect Union” speech, when he called on Americans to “do unto others as we would have them do unto us.”

Biden and Harris’s Move to the Left of Obama on Race

Academics and public intellectuals aiming to stir the conscience of their readers have goals and methods that must differ from those of politicians running for office, who seek the political power to make change. Such provocateurs can take positions to the left of mainstream politicians because, after all, they don’t need to win more votes than their opponent. But what’s especially notable here is that Democratic elected officials shifted to the left of Obama on race as well.

The Biden administration relied on several of the universal programs Obama championed, but Biden also adopted too much of the Brahmin Left’s positioning on race. His first executive order called for a government-wide focus on “equity” that, among other things, promoted DEI trainings in federal government agencies and offices. Biden’s Education Department, likewise, advanced similar thinking on race in its programming. In April 2021, the Biden White House promoted a program of grants for teaching civics and American history that both uncritically praised The 1619 Project and quoted directly from Kendi’s book.

Looking at funding, the American Rescue Plan included $4 billion of debt relief that would benefit indebted farmers of color—most of whom were African American—but excluded whites. White farmers sued on the basis of racial discrimination. This policy further entrenched the belief among some white Americans that a Democratic president and Congress—focused on equity of outcomes rather than equal rights—stood on the side of minorities and stood opposed to white interests. This was a far cry from Obama’s position that he would not pass laws that only helped black Americans. Struggling black farmers in Alabama are not better off because the government chose not to include struggling white farmers in Iowa. But the latter are definitely worse off for not getting that help, and the reason behind the policy might well lead those white farmers to resent both people of color and the Democratic officials who made that choice.

Furthermore, such choices weaken the multiracial coalition of the economically vulnerable that true progressive change requires, something Dr. King understood. In Why We Can’t Wait, he called for a “Bill of Rights for the Disadvantaged” that would include poor whites. Echoing Dr. King, Obama also tended to endorse universalist rather than race-specific policies.

Rhetorically, as well, neither Biden nor Harris decisively broke with the hard left, as Obama did when he forcefully distanced himself from Rev. Wright, or President Bill Clinton did when he distanced himself from Sister Souljah, a rapper who said after the 1992 Los Angeles riots, “If black people kill black people every day, why not have a week and kill white people?”

Some might have expected that Biden and Harris’s more race-specific equity rhetoric would have resulted in increased support among voters of color. It did not. The reality is that the wealthy white liberals who proudly declare their devotion to the principles of DiAngelo’s White Fragility or Kendi’s How to Be an Anti-Racist express positions on racial issues like policing or education that stand far to the left of most African Americans. The views of the Brahmin Left—which TLP’s Ruy Teixeira noted “have come to define the Democratic Party in the eyes of many working-class voters, despite the fact that many Democrats do not endorse them”—are alienating the very Americans most likely to face racial oppression. These groups also happen to include some of the fastest-growing segments of our voting population.

Democratic politicians must find ways to clearly distance themselves from the more extreme, unnuanced aspects of race essentialism, as Obama repeatedly has done. To be fair, President Biden and Vice President Harris on occasion employed language that echoed, at least in part, the Obama vision of America discussed here. Unfortunately, doing so does not have the same impact as putting it at the core of one’s worldview.

A Path Forward

Since Obama left office, Democrats have lost sight of the importance of his type of conception of America. He provided both an accurate picture of the country and showed an ability to win over sufficient numbers of working-class voters of every race—the overwhelming majority of whom are strongly patriotic. Democrats need to reembrace the Obama vision of America and avoid the more identity politics-based vision of the Brahmin Left if they wish to get a fair hearing from working-class Americans on policy prescriptions they propose.

Some intellectuals offer a path forward that differs from that proposed by Kendi, Coates, and The 1619 Project. Writer Heather McGhee has offered a compelling vision of how to talk about race along Obamaesque lines. She wrote:

The zero-sum story of racial hierarchy…is an invention of the worst elements of our society: people who gained power through ruthless exploitation and kept it by sowing constant division. It has always optimally benefited only the few while limiting the potential of the rest of us, and therefore the whole.

McGhee argues that Republicans pit racial and other groups against each other such that if one gains, the others must lose. That story is a false one. She notes that what she called the “race left” inadvertently contributes to this zero-sum vision by “focus[ing] on how white people benefited from systemic racism.” She argues that’s not an accurate story. Many whites suffered, rather than benefited, under the old laws of white supremacy, even as those laws harshly oppressed black Americans above all. For the most part, white people “lost right along with the rest of us. Racism got in the way of all of us having nice things.” Her key illustration is that when courts ordered desegregation of public swimming pools, some communities chose to fill in the pools rather than integrate them. Black people got hurt, but so did working-class whites. McGhee’s formulation is both accurate and politically persuasive to a broad audience.

Democrats need to move away from the language of equity, which implies that it would be acceptable to close the racial gaps in health or education by helping members of the disadvantaged racial groups improve while denying any help to lower-income whites. Obama understood this reality instinctively, as he made clear in his “A More Perfect Union” speech. He called on all Americans to “realize that your dreams do not have to come at the expense of my dreams; that investing in the health, welfare, and education of black and brown and white children will ultimately help all of America prosper.” Like the 44th president did, today’s Democrats must talk along these lines regularly and weave these concepts into their communication about all kinds of issues, not just on special occasions.

To reorient themselves, Democrats must make some choices and offer newer, more inspiring alternatives than they have in recent years. Barack Obama brilliantly walked a middle path between extremes. He managed to acknowledge inequities and the need for more progress while also offering hope. Obama flatly rejected the faddish vision that, in the words of Teixeira, claims “America was born in slavery, marinated in racism, and remains a white supremacist society, shot through with multiple, intersecting levels of injustice that make everybody either oppressed or oppressor on a daily basis.”

Perhaps nowhere did Obama strike the balance better than in his speech commemorating the 50th anniversary of the Selma to Montgomery Voting Rights March. Obama asked:

What could more profoundly vindicate the idea of America than plain and humble people—the unsung, the downtrodden, the dreamers not of high station, not born to wealth or privilege, not of one religious tradition but many—coming together to shape their country’s course? What greater expression of faith in the American experiment than this; what greater form of patriotism is there; than the belief that America is not yet finished, that we are strong enough to be self-critical, that each successive generation can look upon our imperfections and decide that it is in our power to remake this nation to more closely align with our highest ideals?

To right the ship, tell a credible and also inspiring story, and win elections, a new generation of Democrats needs to recapture this same spirit.

1 This article draws upon a longer report published by the Progressive Policy Institute, as well as from my books, Obama’s America: A Transformative Vision of Our National Identity (Washington, D.C.: Potomac Books, 2012) and Riling up the Base: Examining Trump’s Use of Stereotypes through an Interdisciplinary Lens (Boston: DeGruyter Brill, 2025, co-authored with Anastacia Kurylo), along with my article, “How Progressives Talk about July 4 and Our National History in the Post-Trump Presidency Era” (Daily Kos, 2024).


Trump’s Week of ‘Massive Legal Losses’ Merits More Attention

Julianne McShane has a review of “Trump’s Week of Massive Legal Losses” at Mother Jones. Here’s an excerpt:

  • Last Friday, a federal appeals court ruled that Trump’s reciprocal tariffswere basically illegal, as my colleague Inae Oh covered. (On Truth Social, Trump alleged the court was “Highly Partisan,” adding, “If these Tariffs ever went away, it would be a total disaster for the Country.”)
  • The same day, a federal judge ruled that the administration could not fast-track deportations of people detained far from the southern border. (White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller called the ruling a “judicial coup.”)
  • Last Sunday, a federal judge temporarily blocked the administration from deporting hundreds of unaccompanied Guatemalan children. (Miller alleged the “Biden judge” was “effectively kidnapping these migrant children.”)
  • On Tuesday, an appeals court upheld a lower court’s ruling requiring Trump to rehire fired Federal Trade Commissioner Rebecca Kelly Slaughter. That prompted the administration to ask the Supreme Courtto allow the firing to proceed.
  • The same day, a federal judge ruled that Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to Los Angeles was illegal, alleging that the president and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth are “creating a national police force with the President as its chief.” (White House spokesperson Anna Kelly characterized the ruling as “a rogue judge…trying to usurp the authority of the commander in chief to protect American cities from violence and destruction.”)
  • On Wednesday, a federal judge ruled that the administration broke the law when it froze billions of dollars in research funds to Harvard. (White House spokesperson Liz Huston called the decision “egregious.”)
  • On Thursday, an appeals court ruled that Trump could not cancel billions of dollars in foreign aid without getting approval from Congress. (The administration already appealed the decision.)
  • And on Friday, a federal judge blocked Trump from revoking the temporary legal status of hundreds of thousands of Haitian and Venezuelan immigrants. (A Department of Homeland Security spokesperson said the ruling “delays justice,” adding, “unelected activist judges cannot stop the will of the American people for a safe and secure homeland.”)

Read more here.


Are Dems Too Risk-Averse in Facing Government Shutdown?

To get up to speed on the possibility of a government shutdown and what Democrats can do about it, read “Shutdown talk heats up as Democrats insist on stopping health care cuts” by Kevin Frecking and Lisa Mascaro at apnews.com. An excerpt:

WASHINGTON (AP) — A deadline looming, Congress charged Monday toward a federal government shutdown as Republicans brush back Democratic demands to save health care funding from cutbacks, while Democrats are flexing a newfound willingness to play hardball, even if it means closing offices and services.

Republican leaders are ready to call the Democrats’ bluff, possibly as soon as this week, with a test vote before the end-of-the-month deadline to keep government running.

GOP leaders said they could tee up a vote on a short-term spending bill that would keep the federal government fully operational when the new budget year begins Oct. 1. It would likely be a temporary patch, into mid-November.

House Speaker Mike Johnson said the measure would include funds to boost security for lawmakers in the wake of the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. Additionally, the Trump administration said it’s asking Congress for $58 million in increased funding for the U.S. Marshals Service and security for the Supreme Court. And the Senate is considering its own proposals.

“I want everyone within the sound of my voice to understand: Members of Congress are safe,” Johnson, R-La., said Monday at the Capitol. “They will be kept safe. They have security measures now at their residence and personally. We can always enhance and do more and do better.”

In the past budget battles, it has been Republicans who’ve been willing to engage in shutdown threats as a way to focus attention on their priority demands. That was the situation during the nation’s longest shutdown, during the winter of 2018-19, when President Donald Trump was insisting on federal funds to build the U.S.-Mexico border wall.

This time, however, Democrats, facing intense pressure from their base of supporters to stand up to Trump and refuse to fund the administration’s policies, are taking a tougher position — even if it means halting funds needed to run federal offices.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said he and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries are united in opposing any legislation that doesn’t include key health care provisions.

They have particularly focused on the potential for skyrocketing health care premiumsfor millions of Americans if Congress fails to extend enhanced subsidies, which many people use to buy insurance on the Affordable Care Act exchange. Those subsidies were put in place during the COVID crisis, but are set to expire.

More here.


Teixeira: Three Big Problems with the Politics of Abundance

The following article, “Three Big Problems with the Politics of Abundance” by Ruy Teixeira, politics editor of The Liberal Patriot newsletter, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of major works of political analysis, is cross-posted from The Liberal Patriot:

I was at the Abundance 2025 conference last week and overall I think it was a big success. There was a wide range of interesting speakers and panels and a pleasing sense of intellectual ferment. It seems likely that the discourse around abundance will continue to evolve in the future and play an important role in policy discussions. That’s a good thing.

But the politics? Ah, there’s the rub. For abundance to succeed as policy it also has to succeed as politics. And here there are some very big problems that will not go away easily and put limits on how far abundance policy can get.

1. Abundance is not a get-out-of-jail-free card for the Democrats. A key reason abundance has caught on in sectors of the Democratic Party is that they are desperate for something—anything—they can “stand for” besides opposing Trump. They are aware the party is at a low point in voter esteem and widely viewed, especially by working-class voters, as out of touch and ineffective. Abundance is something they can glom on to and say “see—we are turning over a new leaf and will be different in the future.”

A Washington Post article described what Democrats are embracing as “cutting back on the environmental reviews, strict zoning, labor rules and other obstacles that prevent government from efficiently building, fixing and fostering the things people want, from housing to energy.” An Axios article summarized the new approach as “respond[ing to governing failures in blue cities and states] by cutting excess regulations to build more housing, energy projects and more.”

This is fine as far as it goes and is undoubtedly needed. But notice what’s missing. There is no hint here of moving to the center on the wide variety of culturally-inflected issues—crime, immigration, affirmative action, DEI, trans, etc., etc.—that have come to define the image of the contemporary Democratic Party and are tanking the Democrats’ performance among working-class voters. Some Democratic abundance boosters recognize this problem but they are very much a minority voice.

Indeed, it is clear that for most, this is a way of eliding those uncomfortable issues. If we talk about this, we don’t have to talk about that. In this, they are not so different from their great rivals, the “fighting the oligarchy”/populist economics crowd, who also believe their economic approach will dispense with the need to confront and resolve Democrats’ profound cultural distance from normie working-class voters.

That hasn’t worked and won’t work. To believe otherwise is to disregard the clear message of the 2024 election, not to mention the Democrats’ Senate problem and population shifts that will make it ever more necessary to compete in culturally conservative red states. Abundance, in short, is not a get-out-of-jail-free card for today’s Democrats. Not even close.

2. Abundance for whom? So this abundance thing—who is it actually for? There is a distinct whiff of professional class coastal liberal preferences in the animating goals of, especially, Democratic adherents to abundance. They are heavy on infill urban housing, urban infrastructure, and building out renewable energy to stave off climate catastrophe. Indeed, in the seminal text of these advocates, Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, the book’s introduction waxes rhapsodic on their vision of a 2050 socially liberal ecotopia, where, to paraphrase President Trump (“everything’s computer!”), everything’s electric! Fossil fuels are but a distant memory; it’s all clean energy that is dirt cheap with towering skyscraper farms for food and drones that seamlessly deliver everything your heart desires.

This is catnip for the book’s (apparent) target audience of liberal Democratic-leaning professionals but for the rest of the population—not so much. Liberal abundance advocates are obsessed with the need for a rapid transition away from fossil fuels to clean energy (chiefly wind and solar with a few nukes thrown in). They center “net zero” by 2050 as an urgent priority despite its profound impracticality. And they simply refuse to take seriously the major, undeniable trade-offs between overall energy abundance and a forced march to decarbonization.

That’s a big problem. Cheap, reliable, plentiful energy must necessarily underpin any abundance worthy of the name. Cheap energy enabled the rise of industrial society and remains essential for today’s standard of living. Without it, these advocates’ vision of overall abundance is nothing more than a pipe dream.

Such abundance cannot be achieved by wind and solar solely or even mostly. It means way more nuclear and, yes, more drilling for America’s massive endowment of fossil fuels, especially natural gas, the cleanest fossil fuel.

Liberal abundance advocates struggle to accept this fact, instead choosing to market their agenda as the way that Democrats’ dream of a rapid renewables–based transition can actually be attained. But working-class voters have little interest in this rapid clean energy transition. These voters—exactly the voters the party needs to win back—do not share the zeal of Democrats’ educated voter base for restructuring the economy around “green” industries and the clean energy agenda that underpinned much of Biden administration economic policy. The last election should have made that, well, abundantly clear.

Too few liberal abundance advocates are willing to grapple with the ways in which their preferred agenda is incompatible with the views and priorities of normie voters, as opposed to people like them. Geoff Shullenberger has noted correctly that the abundance envisioned by advocates “already exists, at least in some form, for those who can afford it,” which just happens to include a huge chunk of the Democrats’ educated professional base. Josh Barro has chided Democratic abundance advocatesfor their support of “decarbonization policies that would make energy, and the aspirational suburban lifestyle, more expensive.” And that lifestyle, he points out, is what “abundance” means for most ordinary Americans. They want that nice house in the ‘burbs with all the gadgets and vehicles! Especially vehicles—as Arizona Democratic senator Ruben Gallego has memorably remarked: “Every Latino man wants a big-ass truck.” The contrast between what most liberal Democrats, including abundance advocates, want such voters to want and what they actually do want is a fundamental problem.

Abundance for whom is an obvious, glaring question that cannot be elided. And right now, way too many abundance advocates have answers that cannot generate the public support they need.

3. Abundance is under-powered as a political project. We live in a populist erawhere a politician like Trump has succeeded by pushing a bold, uncompromising vision to sweep away a broken, elite-dominated system. His crusade is emotional and visceral in a way that liberals loathe but engages tens of millions of working-class voters.

Against this, the technocratic-flavored abundance argument seems weak by comparison. Tweaking the current system to get better outputs assumes more faith in the current system than plausibly exists among most voters. They are more likely to see it as a well-intentioned but likely ineffective reform attempt than a crusade they want to sign up to. An emotional, morally-charged, and nationalistic drive to radically transform our failing system, promote a new era of national development and grand accomplishments and leave the Chinese in the dust is more like a crusade. But at this point such a crusade seems very far from the center of gravity of the abundance discourse.

Frankly, I don’t see how abundance gets very far until and unless advocates recognize its weakness as a political project and embed it in a broader project that can move tens of millions. Only then are their ambitions likely to be realized.


Will Dems Play Hardball on Shutdown?

The following article stub for “Are Senate Democrats Growing a Spine?” by Robert Kuttner is cross-posted from The American Prospect:

Last March, Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer embarrassed himself and his party by colluding with Senate Republicans to round up votes to block a filibuster over Trump’s budget cuts, and then getting absolutely nothing in return. The impoundments, rescissions, and deeper cuts continued, as did Trump’s general lawlessness.

As the government faces an October 1 shutdown unless Congress can make a deal for a continuing resolution to keep spending at current levels, there had been signs that Schumer was planning to rinse and repeat, fearing that Democrats would be blamed for any shutdown. A variant was the idea that Democrats would go along with Republicans in exchange for one high-profile Republican concession—keeping subsidies for Affordable Care Act policies at current levels.

But now, the signs are that Senate Democrats will hold out for a much stronger deal—or let Republicans take the fall for refusing to bargain and letting the government shut down for a time. Schumer seems to be cornered into doing the right thing.

Why? The context has drastically changed since March. Trump’s policies have become more extreme and more unpopular. The 2026 midterms are six months closer. Schumer has lost a lot of credibility with his caucus.

The emerging Democratic caucus position is that Republicans would have to agree to enforceable terms that would block further impoundments or rescissions; there would need to be drastic changes in health policy generally, and not just on ACA subsidies, which affect less than 10 percent of the population. Democrats will hold out for restoration of Medicaid and other health funds as well, as well as changes in vaccine policy.

If Trump’s multiple health cuts persist, they will affect not only those on Medicaid or with ACA-backed policies. Government health care spending and regulation indirectly subsidizes all private health insurance by covering or constraining some costs so that insurance doesn’t have to. Projections are that all policyholders face major premium increases after October 1. In demanding Republican concessions on a broad front of health policy issues as the price of a budget agreement, Democrats will make a huge deal of this risk.

Either way, Democrats win politically. If Republicans refuse to go along, they take the fall for allowing the government to shut down rather than agreeing to a compromise on issues that most Americans support. And if Republicans do agree to a deal, Democrats will have demonstrated muscle and principle on issues that resonate with most Americans. Even better, Republicans will have been backed into constraining Trump.

More here.


Working-Class ‘Trapped in a Cycle of Debt’

The following article stub for  “Polling Shows ‘American Families Are Trapped in a Cycle of Debt‘” by Jessica Corbett is cross-posted from Common Dreams:

Yet another poll exposes the pain that working-class Americans are enduring thanks to US President Donald Trump’s policies, the economic justice advocates behind the new survey said Tuesday.

Polling released in recent months has highlighted how most Americans don’t believe that merely working hard is enough to get ahead, a majority blames Trump for the country’s economic woes, and large shares are concerned about the price of groceries, housing, and unexpected medical expenses.

The new survey—conducted by Data for Progress less than two weeks ago for Groundwork Collaborative and Protect Borrowers—shows that “American families are trapped in a cycle of debt,” the groups said.

Specifically, the Data for Progress found that 55% of likely voters have at least some credit card debt, and another 18% said that they “had this type of debt in the past, but not anymore.” Additionally, over half have or previously had car loan or medical debt, more than 40% have or had student debt, and over 35% are or used to be behind on utility payments.

More than two-thirds of respondents said that the federal government’s resumption of student loan collections had an impact on their family’s finances, and almost a quarter said they would need a one-time infusion of cash, “such as from inheritance, lottery, government assistance, etc.,” to be able to pay off all of their debt.

More here.