From “77 percent say Trump policies increased cost of living: Survey” by Sarah Davis at The Hill:

A majority of Americans blame President Trump for heightened consumer costs, according to new polling.

A new CNN survey released on Tuesday found that 77 percent of U.S. adults believe the president’s policies have increased the cost of living in their communities. Eight percent said his administration has decreased costs, while 16 percent believe these policies have had “no effect.”

When asked specifically about which policies have had a negative impact on their financial situations, 75 percent selected the Iran war, 65 percent said Trump’s tariffs, 46 percent said artificial intelligence (AI) technology and 41 percent said changes to tax laws.

Inflation increased to 3.8 percent in April, the Labor Department said in a Tuesday report. The 0.6 percent spike in consumer prices from March to April was driven primarily by rising energy costs amid the Iran war.

Affordability is expected to play a central role in the midterm elections, with Democrats looking to take back control of the House by running on economic platforms.

However, 57 percent of people in the CNN survey indicated there were political issues that mattered “at least as much as the economy” for the midterms. Americans were split on how this upcoming election could impact their pocketbooks, with 49 percent saying their financial situation would likely be unchanged by the results and 50 percent saying it would have a “big effect.”

Trump’s war with Iran has placed a strain on the global energy markets, and U.S. consumers have felt the pinch at the gas pump. The average price of standard gas was just above $4.50 per gallon on Wednesday, up from around $3.16 a year ago, according to AAA.

These increased fuel prices have particularly impacted low-income families, according to a New York Federal Reserve analysis published last week. The report found that households earning less than $40,000 a year increased their spending the least out of all income bracket groups.

More here.

Read Anthony Flaccovento’s “Working People Everywhere Need A Rural New Deal” at Democracy: A Journal of Ideas. Here’s a teaser:

A Rural New Deal is urgently needed to help revitalize small towns and rural communities. That should be good news enough. But the added good news is that the policies and actions contained in the Rural New Deal will help working people in cities and suburbs as well. We’ll explore the particulars in a moment, but first some important background.

For most of the past five decades, small towns and rural communities have witnessed a steady erosion of their economies, along with a sharp increase in health problems, addiction, housing shortages, and the loss of population, including many young people looking for opportunities elsewhere. This didn’t just happen. It’s been a bipartisan, four-decade long betrayal of working folks, enabled by investor-driven trade deals like NAFTA, trickle-down tax and economic policies, and the near-abandonment of antitrust enforcement. Taken together, these policies—along with disinvestment in rural communities and one-time factory towns—have concentrated wealth and pulled the rug out from under workers, farmers, community banks, and small businesses. Recent trends, like the buying up of housing stock, land, and local physicians’ practices by private equity giants, is only accelerating the extraction and transfer of wealth from those who actually produce it to those who make money from trading, downsizing, or even eliminating the businesses.

The need for investment in infrastructure as well as local leadership and capacity is particularly critical to create good jobs and strong businesses in rural and working-class communities. While some characterize rural communities and red states as the primary beneficiaries of federal dollars, this is only partly true and overlooks key investment gaps in these places. Rural communities tend to receive more net federal dollars for two reasons: In general, they have more low-income people and more older people than cities and suburbs. As a result, higher per capita levels of federal money, in the form of Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Medicare, and Social Security flow to these regions. More disability funds, whether Black Lung or Social Security Disability payments, are also transferred to people in these communities, but that’s in large part because the jobs available skew toward the physically demanding and, too often, the dangerous and debilitating.

Where former factory towns and rural communities lack substantial and sustained investment is in the things that help them build long-term prosperity and higher levels of self-sufficiency: value-adding infrastructure (for example for food, fisheries, forest, and fiber enterprises), broadband, workforce development that meets emerging demands, and individual and organizational capacity to secure investment and drive bottom up, locally based solutions to their needs and problems. Studies from the Kellogg Foundation, USDA, and others document the dramatically lower levels of per capita investment of this sort in rural America as compared with urban investments.

More here.

This stub from following article, “A Simple Model for Forecasting the Impact of Mid-Cycle Redistricting on the 2026 House Elections,” is cross-posted from centerforpolitics.org:

A House forecasting model based on post-World War II history, the number of seats the presidential party holds going into the midterm, and House generic ballot polling can give us a good sense of what might happen in the House…However, one important factor that the model does not take into account for 2026 is the impact of an apparent Republican advantage in redistricting, which may effectively mean that Republicans are going into November with more seats than they currently hold…But even if one starts the Republicans with 10 more seats than they currently hold because of redistricting gains, the model still suggests Democrats are favored to win the House unless their lead in House generic ballot polling, now about half a dozen points in polling averages, evaporates….

Conclusions

Mid-cycle redistricting is likely to have only a minimal impact on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House elections. Based on our simple but highly accurate forecasting model, adding the equivalent of 10 Republican districts prior to the election is only expected to reduce Democratic gains by about five seats. With an average lead of around 6 points on the generic ballot, Democrats would still be expected to gain around 23 seats in the House. To have a reasonable chance of maintaining control of the House, Republicans would need to be tied or leading on the generic ballot prior to the election.

More here.

Ruy Teixeira, author of major works of political analysis and non-resident senior fellow of the American Enterprise Institute, explains  why “Trump Is Making the Same Mistake That Doomed Biden” at The Free Press:

President Donald Trump has a high opinion of his own persuasive power and political instincts. That is not without justification. Despite massive derision from pundits, he’s managed to win two out of the last three presidential elections. Clearly, there are some things he understands about American voters that establishment politicians and commentators do not.

But lately his political star has been falling, as is vividly illustrated by a new, widely cited poll from The New York Times and Siena College, which measures Trump’s approval rating down at 37 percent. Democrats’ lead on the generic House ballot, by the same poll, is up to 10 points. That means Trump’s approval is now below President Joe Biden’s in the first polls after Biden’s disastrous July 2024 debate, when he froze and babbled repeatedly in front of millions of American viewers, causing him to drop out of the race for reelection.

And these are not outliers; both figures are only a bit worse than rolling averages calculated by various poll aggregators. Trump’s descent in the polls refutes a claim made by many of his supporters, who long have argued that the polarizing president had both a “low ceiling” of support but also a “high floor.” So much for that—Trump is now down in the Biden basement.”

More here.

From “Democrats Have the Biggest Midterm Election Lead in May, by any Party, in 20 Years:  All signs point to a Blue Wave, and they may need every drop to overcome recent gerrymandering woes and likely presidential scheming” by Bill Scher at Washington Monthly:

While the polling industry has taken a lot of guff in recent years, one question continues to earn its keep: the generic congressional ballot test. It is a poll question that asks respondents which party’s candidate they plan to support to represent their House district. The average lead in the general congressional ballot test can’t tell us exactly how many seats will flip, but it can tell us if a wave is coming.

Three of the last five midterm elections have been “wave” years in which the party that did not control the White House flipped over 25 House seats—the post-World War II average—en route to seizing the Speaker’s gavel. In each of the wave years—the 2006 and 2018 Blue Waves, as well as the 2010 Red Wave—the Real Clear Politics average generic congressional ballot test lead for the opposition party cleared five points. At no point in the non-wave years of 2014 and 2022 did either party meet that mark (though Republicans came close in 2022, briefly touching 4.8 in April).

This year, Democrats have already cleared the five-point mark in the RCP average, first for a few days in February, then again in late March. This spring, the Democratic lead has steadily ticked upward. Buoyed by particularly strong data in the latest New York Times poll, the Democrats’ lead stood at 7.2 points as of May 18. That nearly matches the 7.3-point poll lead Democrats had before Election Day 2018.

That’s significant for two reasons. One, no party has built an average seven-point generic congressional ballot test lead in RCP this early in a midterm year since 2006, when public ire over the Iraq War quagmire, the botched response to Hurricane Katrina, and the unpopular and unsuccessful push to privatize Social Security partially fueled double-digit Democratic polling leads from the very beginning of the year.

Two, in the RCP average, no party that led by seven points at some point during a midterm year ever ended the election year with a lead of less than seven points. In the more crucial metric of the aggregate House popular vote margin, that’s also pretty much true, although the 2010 Republicans scored slightly below at 6.8 points.

Of course, there can always be a first time. Perhaps President Donald Trump gets the Strait of Hormuz reopened, which eases pressure on gas prices and prompts a voter reassessment. But most energy industry experts have cautioned that even with a resolution with Iran, prices may not return to pre-war levels, partly because of damage to energy infrastructure. More likely, we are seeing a dynamic familiar in wave years—year-long, stable polling leads for the opposition party. (An exception was in 2010, when Democrats were competitive in generic ballot polls through June before Republicans broke away.)

More here.

From “Kleptocracy“,  Joyce Vance’s latest Substack column:

Here’s the bottom line. Donald Trump wants to take $1.8 billion dollars of money that taxpayers like you and me have paid to the government, and he wants to give it to his most hardcore followers, the people who stormed the Capitol on January 6. Trump calls them victims of Joe Biden’s weaponization of the Justice Department. It’s corruption. Corruption in plain sight. Trump is going to give his supporters taxpayers’ money.

One of the most troubling things about Trump’s second presidency is that fraud and corruption have been completely normalized. There’s no call for accountability. And it’s a long list. Trump crypto. Trump pumping up Palantir stock after buying a sizable amount for himself. The Campaign Legal Center has a 38-page report, last updated in February, called “Trump’s Corrupt Transactions.” But it all pales in comparison to what began to unfold last week.

You may recall that back in January, Trump, his two oldest sons, and the Trump Organization filed a lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service, asking for $10 billion. In it, they alleged that a former IRS employee illegally gave Trump’s tax returns to the New York Times, ProPublica, and “other leftist media outlets.” They fault the IRS for failing to take precautions to prevent it from happening.

The claim for $10 billion stems from an allegation that the disclosure “caused reputational and financial harm, public embarrassment, unfairly tarnished their business reputations, portrayed them in a false light, and negatively affected President Trump and the other Plaintiffs’ public standing.” There is no documentation that the release of tax records caused any of that, and no proof that it resulted in $10 billion in damages. Arguably, given Trump’s reelection and reports that he’s now worth more money than ever, he suffered no damages at all. And even if he did, it would be difficult to isolate them to the IRS leak as opposed to his 34 felony counts of criminal conviction, the January 6 insurrection, or his connection to Jeffrey Epstein.

The important thing for Democratic campaigns to repeat again and again is that, with extremely few exceptions, today’s Republican Party enables the Trump kleptocracy. A vote for any of the enablers  is a vote to support continued  theft of taxpayer’s hard earned money. It is a simple  message that does not need to be diluted to  be effective.

At commonplace.org, Oren Cass interviews Ruy Teixeira:

The Democratic Party continues to reel from its 2024 electoral defeat and struggles to connect with the American people. But the party remains captured by special interests and sacred cows that its leaders refuse to confront.

Few understand this dynamic better than Ruy Teixeira, author and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and founder of The Liberal Patriot, a now-defunct newsletter. He and Oren discuss what happened to TLP, formerly a source of difficult truths for Democrats, how the advocate class has moved the party so rapidly to the left, and why the Democratic establishment so stubbornly refuses to learn anything new. They conclude by looking at what it all means for the future of both parties, and whether there’s an off-ramp for the polarization dominating American politics.

You can watch the interview right here. Transcript here.

From “The New Civil Rights Movement Starts Now” at The Contrarian:

Democracy is not a spectator sport. Whether you want to exercise your right to vote, join a protest, call your elected officials, run for office, or keep tabs on the week’s hottest issues and protests, The Contrarian has you covered.

Here are our top suggestions for getting involved in the days ahead. These are heated times; we encourage non-violent and lawful activism.

Republicans across the South are using the cover of the Supreme Court’s execrable Callais decision to dilute the power of Black and Brown voters. In response, voting rights advocates are organizing an All Roads Lead to the South day of protest and action on Saturday, May 16.

The day’s key demonstrations will take place in Selma and Montgomery, Alabama, two hallowed grounds from the civil rights movement of the 1950s and 60s. Organizers are framing the action as a continuation of that struggle: “Our parents and grandparents marched, organized, bled, and won,” they write. “The Voting Rights Act was theirs. The fight to keep it is ours.”

The day will begin in Selma, scene of the Bloody Sunday march in 1965, with a “Moral Moment for Faith Leaders” at 9 a.m. local time, with a crossing the famed Edmund Pettus Bridge. The culmination of the day of action will be in Montgomery, home of the bus boycott led by Rosa Parks, with a rally at the state capitol beginning at 1 p.m. The Contrarian will be reporting on the scene all day. Contrarian publisher Norm Eisen, April Ryan, and others will come to you live from Montgomery on Saturday evening with a recap of the day’s events.

Supporting actions are planned in cities from Austin to St. Louis, Trenton to Tallahassee. Find the event nearest you on this interactive map or organize one of your own.

The most important step you can take in the face of the Republican assault on representative democracy is ensuring that you, your friends, and your family members are registered to vote and have a plan to vote in November. The All Roads page has a “Stop the Voting Purge” tool to help you check your registration and polling place, register to vote if necessary, and sign up for election reminders.

President Obama provided a couple of  soundbites Democrats can use in unveiling GOP corruption. As Ashleigh Fields reports at The Hill:

Former President Obama on Tuesday said the president “shouldn’t have a bunch of side hustles,” signaling there should be a clear ethical standard for those occupying the Oval Office.

“A good policy that I’d like to see followed is that the president of the United States shouldn’t have a bunch of side hustles that those companies and foreign entities can invest in,” the former president told Stephen Colbert on “The Late Show.”

Obama’s comments come after President Trump’s critics have raised concerns with his decision to accept a Qatari jet with intentions to use the carrier as the next Air Force One.

During his second stint in office, others have flagged potential corruption as private companies back Trump’s $400 million White House ballroom project and his family’s cryptocurrency stock has significantly grown.

Obama said he thought it was a “pretty obvious principle” not to engage in “side hustles” while serving as commander-in-chief.

…“The idea is that the attorney general is the people’s lawyer. It’s not the president’s consigliere. …There’s a bunch of stuff that we can overcome,” he said. “We can’t overcome the politicization of the criminal justice system.”

…When asked what powers he believes the president should not have, Obama said, “Although this is in the Constitution, it’s a little hard to change, but maybe don’t pardon people who’ve given you a bunch of campaign contributions or invested in your businesses.”

Former President Obama’s way with words is still instructive for Democratic candidates at all levels. The G.O.P. has actually devolved from a party dedicated to enriching the already super-wealthy into a personality cult of groveling sycophants. It’s about boiling Republican corruption down for time-challenged voters. Obama knows how to rephrase the critiques of Republican corruption into easy-to-remember soundbites. Democratic campaigns should pay attention.

From “The Real Reason to Worry About the Midterm Elections: Some worry about a November Trump coup. That’s far-fetched, but the ordinary forms of voter suppression are the greater concern” by Robert Kuttner at The American Prospect:

…Trump has been desperately trying to gain control of the election machinery, so far to no avail. His executive orders trying to assert control over electoral machinery that the Constitution clearly gives to the states have been blocked by the courts. The SAVE America Act, which would accomplish the same thing by statute, was passed by the House but died in the Senate.

Trump still hopes to use his control of the Postal Service to undermine the use of mail-in ballots, and to find a way to require photo ID, all on the bogus and discredited premise that illegal voting is rampant. One vexing problem is that even if election officials in blue and purple states reject Trump’s demands to turn over election records for federal purging, Republican officials in some states are going along. This is being challenged in court.

How far would Trump go? In the nightmare scenarios posed by some concerned groups, Trump waits until Election Day, claims that Iran has hacked the election, declares a national emergency, and suspends the election until the accuracy of polling can be assured. Delay is deadly. In some versions of the nightmare, Trump sends in ICE to seize ballot boxes and voting machines.

…MOST LEADERS IN THE “DEFEND DEMOCRACY” CAMP are more worried about the ordinary forms of voter suppression, which Trump and his allies in MAGA-controlled states will surely try to take to new depths this year. This includes not only familiar tactics such as purging voter rolls, intimidating poll watchers and local election officials, changing locations where voters may cast ballots, reducing the number of polling places, and altering the rules and procedures on mail-in ballots.

…Miles Rapoport, former Connecticut secretary of the state and the present leader of 100% Democracy (and a Prospect board member), put it this way: “We can all imagine nightmare scenarios, but they are both unlikely and unhelpful. It’s more important that secretaries of state, pro-democracy legal and advocacy organizations, the courts, and an alerted citizenry push back effectively and make the elections work.”

Whether you are more concerned about a somewhat far-fetched risk of an attempted coup, or about familiar forms of voter suppression taken to new extremes, the remedy is the same. The people need to turn out in record numbers, both to vote and if necessary to face down ICE.”

More here