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Teixeira: The Climate Movement Is Circling the Drain. That’s great for Democrats!

The following article, “The Climate Movement Is Circling the Drain” by Ruy Teixeira, politics editor of The Liberal Patriot newsletter, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of major works of political analysis, is cross-posted from The Liberal Patriot:

These are dark days for the climate movement. Indeed, the whole movement is failing apart in front of our eyes.

Consider:

1. Countries are back-pedaling away from their climate commitments as fast as they can. Ten years after the Paris Agreement on reducing emissions—which as, David Wallace-Wells notes, had been treated by the U.N.’s Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, “as though its significance approached, if not exceeded, that of the U.N. charter itself”—leaders of major countries can’t even be bothered to show up at the U.N.’s annual climate change conferences. For the upcoming November conference in Brazil (COP30), the overwhelming majority of countries have not submitted formal decarbonization plans and, of those that have, most are not compatible with the ambitious goals laid out by the Paris Agreement.

2. The U.S. is not back-pedaling, but sprinting, away from its climate commitments. The Trump administration pulled out of the Paris Agreement and has eviscerated Biden-era climate policy, including the elimination of subsidies for wind, solar and electric vehicles. There has been a thunderous lack of protest to these moves other than press releases from climate NGOs and garment-rending jeremiads from the usual suspects like Bill McKibben.

3. Despite decades of well-funded programs, mandates and targets, global progress on eliminating fossil fuels has been extremely slow. Today, 81 percent of world primary energy consumption still comes from fossil fuels and only 15 percent from renewables, less than half of which comes from wind and solar. The renewables share is higher for electricity generation, 32 percent, but electricity only accounts for 21 percent of global energy consumption.

4. The same goes for eliminating fossil fuels in the U.S. About 80 percent of American primary energy consumption comes from fossil fuels and just 12 percent from renewables, divided between seven percent from wind/solar and five percent from hydropower, biofuels and other renewables. The renewables share of electricity generation is higher at 24 percent but electricity only accounts for 19 percent of energy consumption.

5. Nor is the situation much different in China, which has become the improbable hero of climate obsessives like Wallace-Wells. China also gets 80 percent of its primary energy consumption from fossil fuels and 17 percent from renewables, about half of which comes from wind and solar. The modest share of the latter may surprise those who have heard that China is adding a great deal of solar capacity but they should keep in mind that China is also by far the world leader in adding coal capacity. The renewables share of Chinese electricity generation is only slightly above global average at 34 percent and electricity is still under a quarter of energy consumption.

No wonder interest in declining rapidly in the net-zero project. The euphoria of the 2015 Paris Agreement has run into the harsh realities of a global energy system based largely around fossil fuels that is very, very hard to change quickly. Nor should we wish to do so given the likely associated costs. As Vaclav Smil points out:

[W]e are a fossil-fueled civilization whose technical and scientific advances, quality of life and prosperity rest on the combustion of huge quantities of fossil carbon, and we cannot simply walk away from this critical determinant of our fortunes in a few decades, never mind years. Complete decarbonization of the global economy by 2050 is now conceivable only at the cost of unthinkable global economic retreat…

And as he tartly observes re the 2050 deadline:

People toss out these deadlines without any reflection on the scale and the complexity of the problem…What’s the point of setting goals which cannot be achieved? People call it aspirational. I call it delusional.

This reality has begun to sink in for political leaders around the world. Not only is net-zero by 2050 not going to happen but their constituents have a remarkable lack of interest in seeing this goal attained. In the United States, voters view climate change as a third tier issue, vastly prioritize the cost and reliability of energy over its effect on the climate and, if action on climate change it to be taken, are primarily concerned with the effect of such actions on consumer costs and economic growth. Making fast progress toward net-zero barely registers.

Put it all together and you can see why the climate movement is circling the drain. Since the 2015 Paris Agreement, they have thrown everything they had toward raising the salience of the issue. They have had enormous amounts of money behind them, astonishing buy-in from elites, and a cooperative media ecosystemthat mandates use of the term “climate crisis,” pumps up every alarmist study and attributes every unusual weather event to climate change. What more could they ask?

And yet…most voters, especially working-class voters, just don’t care. Or at least not enough to disregard their frontline concerns about costs, economic growth, and consumer choice. Roger Pielke Jr.’s “iron law of climate policy”—that when policies focused on economic concerns confront policies focused on emissions reductions, it is economic concerns that will win out every time—remains undefeated.

In a rather desperate attempt to save their flailing movement, some climatistas have belatedly smelled the coffee and now proclaim that they are all about affordability and lowering the cost-of-living. This seems unlikely to work after years of yammering about the existential crisis of climate change—”more frightening than a nuclear war” as President Biden put it—which necessitates a complete makeover of the energy system. Rebranding as “we’re just folks who want to bring down your electric bill” is beyond disingenuous.

This is particularly so since the climate NGOs have not changed their basic goals and program in the slightest. As Matt Yglesias revealed, the League of Conservation Voters candidate questionnaire for this cycle still wants candidates to commit to maximalist clean energy targets (though no nuclear!), defend and extend (!) NEPA and aggressively kneecap fossil fuel production. Clearly, affordability rhetoric is just a temporary fig leaf for their unchanged priorities.

Other climatistas aren’t even bothering with the affordability dodge: they’re upping the ante. Now they want to fight the whole damn system! As a Politico article observed:

One set of activists is urging the environmental movement to join a broader anti-billionaire campaign led by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), which accuses the Trump administration of attacking democracy to benefit the very wealthiest Americans…

On Saturday [during Climate Week in New York], dozens of groups that embody the spirit of Sanders’ and Ocasio-Cortez’s “Fight the Oligarchy” tour held the “Make Billionaires Pay” march, which brought 25,000 people to Manhattan’s streets and included demonstrations in cities around the country. Participants hoisted effigies of billionaires such as Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and Tesla CEO Elon Musk and signs protesting Trump’s immigration policies and slashing of environmental rules…

Participants said delivering the critique on income inequality and the ultra rich would build common cause with like-minded individuals at a time when climate change feels less an immediate priority compared with people being detained over their immigration status.

Oh sure, that’ll work. Fold climate change completely into the progressive Omnicause, thereby positioning the issue even farther from the median voter.

As the (still well-funded) climate movement fades slowly into irrelevance, Democrats need to realize one important thing: this is great! They’re being let out of climate jail to think freely about their program for the future. The party has been way too identified with the climate movement and hostility to fossil fuels; way too preoccupied with climate change goals in framing their economic policies; way too dismissive of ordinary voters’ concerns about costs and economic growth and way too responsive to the priorities of liberal, educated elites instead of working-class voters. There’s a big, beautiful world out there of economic and energy policies that can now be considered without the climate movement’s thumb on the scales.

Freedom! Democrats should embrace it.


Dems Must Focus on Working Class, as Well as Poor

Fro  “Here’s One Reason Democrats Are Struggling With the Working Class: Voters see them as focusing on the poor and needy rather than valuing hard work. But that can change” by Monica Potts at The New Republic:

Voters trusted President Donald Trump to handle the economy, but after eight months of wild and costly tariff policies, attacks on independent institutions like the Federal Reserve Board, and massive government layoffs, even some members of his base are unhappy with him. Why did they trust him in the first place, though? Recent history shows that Democratic administrations preside over much better economies than Republican ones, yet voters continue to trust the GOP more on the issue. It’s been one of the top reasons voters without college educations have defected to Trump’s GOP: They think he’s better for the economy, and therefore better for them.

Melissa Morales, the founder and CEO of Somos Votantes, an independent Latino voter outreach and engagement group, thinks she knows why. Her organization has canvassed Latino voters, many of them working class, since its founding in 2019. What she hears is that the Democratic Party supports programs that help the poor and the needy; and voters who work one, two, or even three jobs and struggle to make ends meet don’t think of themselves that way.

“I always use the example of the Child Tax Credit, which was game-changing for families,” Morales said of the program that was temporarily extended under President Joe Biden during the pandemic. “The Child Tax Credit did an incredible amount to uplift working-class people in this country. But the way that Democrats talked about it was that [it] was going to lift 40 percent of children out of poverty.… So when people hear that frame, they hear, ‘This is a program for poor people.’”

At this moment, with voters increasingly dissatisfied with Trump’s governance—including the first government shutdown since he was last in office—Democrats need to think about how to reframe their economic policies so they resonate more with those voters. Because while it’s true that Democrats support programs that help low-income families, and their base supports those policies, the truth is that many working-class voters don’t see themselves represented in Democratic rhetoric even when it applies to them.

A new poll sheds light on this. The Working Class Project, which surveys voters who identify as working class, found that Democratic messages about rewarding hard work and getting ahead were more appealing than messages about reforming the system or going after billionaires. While other polling does consistently show that most voters think the very rich are overpaid and inequality is a problem, focus groups and polling from the Working Class Project illustrate how Democrats can risk vilifying the rich too much and make it seem like they don’t want people to be rich and successful.

…Republicans tout their economic approach as pro-business because they cut regulations and taxes, which many voters tend to believe is good for the economy overall (despite evidence to the contrary). But that doesn’t mean all working-class voters, however they’re defined, think the GOP is looking out for them. In addition to polling that shows voters remain unhappy with the state of the economy, polling from Somos Votantes shows that Trump’s support has collapsed among Latinos, especially young men, since he has taken office.

More here.


Teixeira: The Democrats’ Class Gap Problem

The following article, “The Democrats’ Class Gap Problem” by Ruy Teixeira, politics editor of The Liberal Patriot newsletter, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of major works of political analysis, is cross-posted from The Liberal Patriot:

It’s not exactly news that Democrats have a yawning working-class hole in their coalition. Over time, they have shed both white and nonwhite working-class (noncollege) voters, while improving among college-educated voters—though it has varied by election which sector of the working class has contributed the most to Democratic losses. In 2024, it was nonwhite working-class voters. Given the policies and rhetoric of the Trump administration might it be possible that the pointer this election moves back to the white working class, leaving the Democrats’ class gap in support as large or larger than ever?

It might! In the latest New York Times/Siena poll, white college voters say they’ll vote Democratic in 2026 by 16 points (two-party vote), while white working-class voters favor the Republicans by 34 points. That makes for a 50-point class gap among whites, about doubling the analogous class gaps from 2024 and 2022 Congressional voting (28 and 24 points, respectively). The NYT/Siena poll shows a similarly-sized class gap in net Trump approval (approval minus disapproval) among whites—white college graduates lopsidedly disapprove of Trump, while the white working class lopsidedly approve.

Other data from the poll underscore this gap. On specific issues, white working-class voters approve of Trump’s handling of the economy by 25 points (compared to net 20 points disapproval among white college grads); on handling immigration, it’s net 27 points approval vs. net 24 points disapproval; on managing the federal government, it’s 28 points net approval vs. 24 points net disapproval; and on crime, it’s a whopping 33 points net approval among the white working class vs. 13 points net disapproval among white college voters.

Views on recent high profile policy issues are consistent with these ratings. By 40 points (69-29 percent), white working-class voters support “deporting immigrants living in the United States illegally back to their home countries”, while white college grads are split evenly. A similar gap can be seen on “the deployment of National Guard troops in Washington, D.C.” White working-class voters support the move by 21 points (55-34 percent), while white college voters are opposed by 23 points (60-37 percent).

And white college grads are highly likely to think the Trump has “gone too far” in these and similar areas: 58 percent think his immigration enforcement actions have gone too far, 59 percent feel the same about sending National Guard troops into big cities and 57 think pressuring colleges and universities has gone too far. In contrast, just 34 percent, 37 percent and 28 percent of the white working class, respectively, think the president has gone too far in these areas (the rest think what he’s done is about right or, more commonly, that he hasn’t gone far enough).

Finally, here’s a result from the poll that crystallizes this chasm in attitudes between white working-class and college voters. Voters were given a choice between these two statements about Trump’s time in office so far: “Donald Trump is cleaning up chaos and disorder,” or “Donald Trump is creating chaos and disorder.” By 25 points (61-36 percent), white working-class voters think he’s getting rid of chaos and disorder, while white college-grad voters are almost exactly the reverse; by 27 points (63-36 percent) they think Trump is creating chaos and disorder. Interesting!

When you think about it, this pattern of results makes a great deal of sense. Since Trump’s election, Democrats have spent their limited political capital on resisting Trump’s every move and denouncing them in the most histrionic terms—with the clear implication that anyone with mixed feelings or (worse) qualified support for some of his moves is enabling the destruction of democracy and the unleashing of evil upon the land. This is catnip for white college-grad voters, the one demographic among whom Democrats have made progress since the Obama years. But among white working-class voters, the Democrats’ perennial problem demographic, who strongly distrust the Democrats and feel that it’s about time someone did something about the problems Trump is addressing, this approach plays far less well.

Of course, Democrats since the election have been talking nonstop about the need to reach working-class voters. They’re not unaware their party is increasingly a vehicle for educated professionals, whose priorities are quite different and frequently opposed to those of vast sectors of the working class. They’re just not willing to do much about it except proclaim their deep affection for the working class and assure them they are on their side and are really, really concerned about the cost of living. Efforts to materially change the image of the party on difficult cultural issues have been assiduously avoided, save the occasional and tentative suggestion that perhaps those with unorthodox (or, heaven forfend, conservative) views should not be immediately drummed out of the party.

This is not adequate for closing the class gap and convincing working-class voters that they and the Democratic Party are on the same page. Not even close. A NYT/Ipsos poll found this disjuncture between Democratic priorities and personal priorities back in January:



A new poll from the Searchlight Institute shows little has changed since the NYT/Ipsos January poll. Three of the top four Democratic issue priorities are still seen as climate change, LGBTQ+ issues, and abortion (though climate change is now at the top, not abortion) and immigration and crime are at the bottom of the priority list.

Plus ça change plus c’est la même chose. The Democrats’ implicit white college-grad play might well work in the 2026 House elections, where their odds of taking enough seats to shift control look good. But it’s a lot less likely to work for the Senate, where Democrats need to pick up four seats and successfully defend all their incumbents including in Michigan (52 percent white working class among eligible voters according to States of Change estimates) and New Hampshire (55 percent). The Democrats’ target seats include must-have Maine (61 percent white working class), almost-certainly-needed Ohio (55 percent) and if-they-can’t-get-Texas Iowa (61 percent). Daunting!

Getting the love from white college voters may not be enough to scale this mountain. Or succeed in 2028 for that matter. The clock is ticking.


Working Class Wants Policymakers To Reward Work and Listen to Their Values

The following stub of the article, “The Working Class Wants Policymakers To Reward Work and Listen to Their Values” by Aurelia Glass, David Madland and Karla Walter, is cross-posted from Americanprogressaction.org.

Research and events from the American Worker Project and others show that working-class families are struggling and want elected officials to focus on rewarding work while also representing their positions on other issues.

For years, working-class families have been struggling with high costs and with jobs that do not adequately reward hard work, and in 2024, working-class voters made their dissatisfaction with the status quo clear: 56 percent of them voted for Donald Trump, while only 43 percent voted for Kamala Harris. This outcome made the steady decline in working-class support for the Democratic Party—previously seen as the champion of working people’s interests—impossible to ignore and prompted a renewed debate on how policymakers can represent working-class interests.

In 2025, the American Worker Project at the Center for American Progress Action Fund published research and hosted events bringing together policymakers and researchers studying the issue of working-class representation in American politics. This column synthesizes findings from the AWP and elsewhere relating to the working class, including:

  • Nearly two-thirds of the workforce, and roughly the same proportion of the electorate, is working class.
  • The working class is more racially and ethnically diverse than the college-educated workforce.
  • Working-class people struggle economically, burdened with high costs while working primarily in service jobs that do not offer decent wages.
  • Working-class voters want progressive economic policies, especially those that reward work.
  • Winning the working class requires more than just a strong economic message: Many working-class voters feel policymakers are out of touch, fail to address or even acknowledge cultural divides, or are more focused on the preferences of elites rather than prioritizing fights that will make the most difference to working people.

These findings make clear that anyone who wants to represent working-class Americans must prioritize a progressive economic agenda that strengthens worker power; ensures families can support themselves with decent pay and benefits; addresses skyrocketing costs for rent, groceries, and health care; and addresses the concerns of working-class voters on cultural issues.

Who is the working class?

The working class—defined as workers without a four-year college degree—makes up almost two-thirds of the workforce and a similar proportion of the electorate and is more racially and ethnically diverse than the college-educated workforce. While roughly two-thirds of the college-educated workforce is white, white workers make up just more than half of the working class.

More than three-quarters of working-class Americans work in the service sector, and the jobs most commonly held by working-class people tend to offer far lower wages than the jobs held by workers with college degrees. As shown in Figure 1, the median worker with a high school diploma earned a weekly income of $960 in the second quarter of 2025, compared with $1,732 for the median college-educated worker. Even after controlling for demographic factors such as age and gender, college-educated workers earn about 75 percent more than similar workers without a college education.

Read more here.


Is Trump Tanking in the Polls?

A transcript  excerpt from “Trump Is Failing and Unpopular—Brutal New Polls Confirm It,”  featuring  Greg Sargent’s interview at The New Republic with Lakshya Jain, a political data analyst and partner at Split Ticket, an organization devoted to mapping, modeling, and presenting electoral data through an approach driven by data science.” Note that the interview was conducted before the political fallout following Tuesday’s government shutdown and Quantico meeting:

What if we told you that Donald Trump is a really unpopular president? Would that surprise you? It’s certainly not something you hear much in the media. Yet in the last few days, five big national polls have come out showing Trump’s approval numbers in really terrible shape. This is even more visible on specific issues—on many of them, he’s polling in the thirties. He’s underwater on his supposedly strongest issue of immigration too.

And on top of that, a number of his most dramatic moments recently seem to have flopped for him—from the effort to fire comedian Jimmy Kimmel to the indictment of former FBI Director Jim Comey. Lakshya Jain, the co-founder of the data firm Split Ticket and head of political data at The Argument, has been making the case that Trump isn’t actually in such a strong position right now politically. So we’re going to talk about how the heck we can get this basic political fact—that Trump is very unpopular—more broadly understood. Lakshya, good to have you on.

Lakshya Jain: Hey, thanks for having me.

Sargent: So I’m just going to start with some numbers. The new Quinnipiac poll has Trump’s approval at an abysmal 38 percent, while 54 percent disapprove. The new Associated Press poll has him at 39 percent approving to 60 percent disapproving. The new Gallup poll has him at 40 percent to 56 percent. Reuters has him at 41 percent, and the new Economist/YouGov poll has him at 39–56. Lakshya, those numbers are bad. What’s your reading of these findings?

Jain: Oh, they’re horrible. And you know, this is as bad as I can remember it being for a first-year president, so to say. This is the second term, but it’s still the period in time at which the president’s approval ratings are generally at their highest. You know, Joe Biden ended his tenure extremely poorly in the court of public opinion, but it’s really important to remember that Biden was not this unpopular at this point in time in his first year. Trump is at levels that have only really been approached by Trump 1.0. That’s it.

That’s the only historical comparable. But Greg, what’s interesting to me, if I may, is that the disapproval this time is of a completely different nature, and I would argue a far more damaging nature than the first time around, because the first time around, it was centered around his abuse of the office, or so to say, people thinking he was unfit to lead the country. But people liked the economy. People really liked the economy under Trump. His economic numbers were consistently positive or break even the first time around. This time, what’s happening is people really hate Trump not for the abuse of office. They hate him for the economy.

Sargent: Well, let’s talk about some economic numbers, because if you drill down into these polls, they look even more gruesome for Trump. The Quinnipiac poll has Trump on the economy at 39 percent approving to 56 percent disapproving. On trade, he’s at 39 to 54. The AP poll has Trump on the economy at 37 to 62. On trade, 36 to 63.

So those numbers really bear out your point. And I think maybe what a lot of people haven’t really gotten their heads around, as well, is how bad the tariffs are for Trump. Can you talk about sort of how that stew has developed? He’s getting much more of what he wanted on the economy this time than he did last time, ironically enough, and that’s worse for him.

Jain: He’s getting much more of what he wanted, and people are getting much more of what he wanted. That’s important to note. And they all hate it, because the thing is the American people elected Donald Trump because they felt that Joe Biden was at fault for inflation.

And they thought that, given Trump’s economy and given how they felt Biden was unfit to lead, Trump would do a better job stewarding the economy. But this time around, they think he’s been obsessed with things like the woke culture wars and about persecuting his political opponents, and not focused enough on issues that they care about.

You know, when people say, the American people don’t care about all these things that elites think they do. I mean, that goes both ways, right? Like, yes, the democratic championing of norms has not worked out for them. And that is true. That is unquestionably true. But it is also true that Trump trying to focus all of his efforts on, you know, prosecuting his political opponents and going after them is also seen poorly because people don’t care about that. They’re like, why are you focused on that? My bills are so high.

Read more here.


Teixeira: The Poverty Wages of Democratic Resistance

The following article, “The Poverty Wages of Democratic Resistance,’ by Ruy Teixeira, politics editor of The Liberal Patriot newsletter, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of major works of political analysis, is cross-posted from The Liberal Patriot:

Welp, Trump is pretty unpopular and his ratings are very poor on a number of key issues, including the economy and inflation. But Democrats as a party don’t seem to be benefiting. Far from it, as illustrated by these data showing which party has a better plan on various issues from a just-released Reuters/Ipsos poll:



As Democrats clutch their tattered garments about them and mutter angrily that this is all the thanks they get for their noble resistance to the evil Trump, one might venture the suggestion that it is time to try a different approach.

Nah. Time for more of the same. The #Resistance is surely just about to break through if Democrats are sufficiently militant. Hence the gathering momentum for forcing a government shutdown to extract concessions from the GOP. One slight problem: it won’t work. The concessions will not be forthcoming, Democrats will be forced to back down and they will be blamed for the negative effects of the shutdown. But at least they’ll be resisting and doing something.

This is as dumb as it sounds. Much the same could be said about Democrats’ urge to turn it up to 11 on each and every move by Trump and his administration. Is there a person in this country today who does not already know Democrats hate Trump and think everything he does is terrible?

I don’t think so which suggests that continuing to inform voters of this fact can only have limited effectiveness, especially in convincing them that Democrats are a superior alternative to Trump’s party. Take the issue of immigration. Democrats have not stinted in their intense criticism of the actions of ICE agents, including comparing their actions to that of a “modern-day Gestapo.” And it is true that many of these actions have not been popular with the public.

Yet as noted above Republicans are still widely preferred on handling immigration—especially among working-class voters. It would appear that Democrats’ fusillade of criticism of ICE is not convincing voters Democrats have better ideas on how to handle immigration challenges. And why should it? The Democrats’ utter disaster on immigration policy under the Biden administration will not be so easily forgotten.

Josh Barro makes the relevant points:

For too long, Mr. Biden and his team asserted they couldn’t stop the surge without new legislation. That proved false: In 2024, having failed to get an immigration bill through Congress, Mr. Biden finally took executive actions to curb abuse of the asylum system and slow the flow of migrants across the southern border. When Mr. Trump took office, illegal border crossings slowed to a trickle. In other words, the problem had been fixable all along; Mr. Biden simply did not fix it until much too late.

Barro acknowledges that some Democratic commentators and policy shops are (finally) grappling with the need to fix a flat-out broken asylum system and other dysfunctional aspects of the immigration regime Democrats presided over. But there is a notable lack of appetite for dealing with the flash point of deportations/ICE other than denouncing the Trump administration. This is no small omission and indeed undercuts any attempt to portray Democrats as truly reformed on the issue of immigration.

[Democratic immigration policy] won’t work without a robust and credible commitment to enforcement, including interior enforcement (emphasis added). That’s because you can make whatever rules you want about who is supposed to immigrate and how, but if you continue to allow millions of people to come live in the United States in contravention of those rules, the immigration situation on the ground will not match what is written in policy.

The mental block that Democrats have here relates to an instinct about deportations: a feeling that it’s presumptively improper to remove an unauthorized immigrant who has settled in our country if that migrant hasn’t committed a crime unrelated to immigration. These people have been here a long time, the idea goes. They’re not causing trouble.

But if we build a system where people very often get to stay here simply because they made it in—the system that prevailed during most of Mr. Biden’s term—then we don’t really have an immigration policy, and voters won’t have any reason to believe us when we say our new policy will produce different results about who comes here.

Liberals also note, accurately, that there are negative economic consequences to a stepped-up program of interior enforcement that doesn’t focus narrowly on criminals…But these near-term economic costs need to be weighed against the way that stepped-up interior enforcement makes any future immigration policy more credible and more effective by sending migrants the message that they need a valid visa to stay in the United States.

The need to make a credible enforcement threat does not require Democrats to endorse specific enforcement practices of the Trump administration…Democrats are right…to call for a more effectively targeted approach. But that more targeted approach still needs to contemplate that being in the country without authorization is reason enough to deport someone (emphasis added).

Yup, this will be a hard one for Democrats to surrender on. But surrender they must. Otherwise, why should voters take them seriously?

Much the same is true of the crime issue. Democrats are more than happy to call out Trump actions like putting the National Guard in Washington DC (not needed, everything’s great!) and his threats to do the same in other cities. Again, specific actions by Trump are not necessarily popular but the Democrats’ furious denunciations are doing nothing to rehabilitate their image on public safety, as witnessed by the data above. Far more important is Democrats’ association with horrific crimes like the Charlotte, NC, knife murder of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska on a light rail train by a deranged individual who should no way have been on that train. If Democrats cannot be trusted to keep psychotic criminals off the street, why would/should voters trust Democrats over Republicans to handle public safety? It does not compute.

Basically, Democrats have two choices: they can be a loyal soldier in the #Resistance or they can be a different kind of Democrat, with emphasis on the “different.” Leaning into the former makes it very difficult, if not impossible, to be the latter. Democrats’ revealed preference at this point is to stick with the #Resistance and pursue various subterfuges to avoid the need to truly change their positions—even if the return on that strategy continues to be meager. Marc Novicoff in The Atlantic points out:

[E]ven the elected Democrats most insistent on the need for change seem focused on adjustments to the party’s communication style, rather than to its substantive positions. One school of thought holds that Democrats can woo cross-pressured voters without having to compromise on policy at all, as long as they switch up their vocabulary…A related theory of rhetorical moderation is about emphasis, not word choice. Because Democrats are much closer to the median voter on bread-and-butter material issues than Republicans are, perhaps they just need to talk more about their popular economic ideas and less about their unpopular social-issue positions…

For Democrats to appeal to cultural conservatives, some of them probably have to actually be more culturally conservative than what the party has offered in recent years, and not just adopt a different affect or ignore social issues entirely. Or they could simply cross their fingers and hope voters spontaneously adopt new perceptions about the party. That strategy offends no one and incurs little risk. That’s why it’s unlikely to work.

Damon Linker boils the challenge down to its uncomfortable essence:

The only sure way to defeat Trumpism is to defeat it at the ballot box. But the only way to defeat it at the ballot box is for opponents of right-wing populism to improve their showing in elections. And the only way for opponents of right-wing populism to improve their showing in elections is for them to stop driving voters who want tougher policies on crime and immigration, along with less embrace of the progressive outlook on race and gender, into the arms of the Trumpified Republican Party…

There really is only one option [for Democratic success]…promising to give the voters some of what Trump is offering them, but with greater restraint, competence, and humanity.

This cannot be done through the #Resistance playbook. It’s really that simple. Will Democrats wake up to this fact or continue drawing their poverty-level political wages? We shall see as 2026 and, more threateningly, 2028 loom ahead.


Republicans Seek Control of TV and Movies

In his latest opinion essay at The New York Times, Thomas B. Edsall reports on the Republican’s efforts to control America’s media. An excerpt:

While the Trump administration continues to attack free speech, criminalize adversaries and attempt to crush liberal foundations, conservative billionaires have acquired Paramount and CBS, stand in line to own Warner Bros. Discovery and are positioned to extend right-wing control of social media platforms well beyond Elon Musk’s X.

Larry Ellison, the multibillionaire who founded Oracle — together with his son David — is building a media empire rivaling that of Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan. This gives the Ellisons extraordinary power to shape the nation’s politics and culture, just as the Murdochs have for decades through Fox News, News Corp, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Post.

After winning approval from the Federal Communications Commission, Skydance Media, founded by David Ellison with financial support from his father, acquired Paramount for $8 billion on Aug. 7. The deal gave him command of one of the four major networks and one of the five major Hollywood studios, as well as of Comedy Central and Showtime.

On June 18, President Trump endorsed the Skydance acquisitionwhile it was pending before the commission, telling White House reporters: “Ellison is great. He’ll do a great job with it.”

…Two conservative companies, Sinclair and Nexstar Media Group, own, operate or provide services to 386 television stations, far more than any of their competitors. Nexstar has entered into an agreement to acquire Tegna, which, if approved by regulators, would push the total number of stations controlled by Sinclair and Nexstar to 450.

Nexstar currently reaches 70 percent of U.S. households, and that will rise to 80 percent if it wins approval of its purchase of Tegna’s 64 stations. Sinclair’s stations reach 58 to 66 percent of U.S. households, depending on the measure used.

At least two political science papers have reported that after Sinclair buys a television station and sets programming policy, the Republican share of the local vote rises by 3 to 5 percentage points. One is “Small Screen, Big Echo? Political Persuasion of Local TV News: Evidence From Sinclair” by Antonela Miho of the Paris School of Economics; the other is “How Does Local TV News Change Viewers’ Attitudes? The Case of Sinclair Broadcasting” by Matthew Levendusky of the University of Pennsylvania.

Read the entire essay here.


A Primer for Dems on the Best Research on Childhood Vaccines

Democrats who want to get up to speed on “Childhood vaccines: What research shows about their safety and potential side effects” should read Naseem S. Miller’s article of the same title at Journalist’s Resource, a stub of which is cross-posted here:

This explainer about childhood vaccines, originally published on Feb. 26, was updated on Sept. 19 to explain new recommendations from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice.

Dr. Sean O’Leary, chair of the Committee on Infectious Diseases at the American Academy of Pediatrics, studies vaccines and immunization for a living. And if you ask him to summarize what we know about vaccines, he’ll tell you, without hesitation, that vaccines work.

“The science behind vaccines is very clear,” says O’Leary, a professor of pediatrics and infectious diseases at the University of Colorado School of Medicine and Children’s Hospital Colorado. “The benefits outweigh the risks.”

We created this tip sheet and research-based primer on the heels of the confirmation of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a long-time vaccine skeptic who now leads the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

During a time when even Sen. Bill Cassidy, a physician and lifelong advocate of vaccinations, voted for Kennedy’s confirmation, it’s important for journalists to clearly communicate what’s known about the safety of routine childhood vaccines — and dispel myths about their dangers.

We’ve gathered the following resources in this vaccine primer:

Read more here.


Reifowitz: Dems Must Recapture Obama’s Vision of American Identity

Ruy Teixeira recommends the following article, “How Democrats Lost Obama’s Vision of American Identity by Ian Reifowitz, cross-posted here from The Liberal Patriot:

Ask people what single line they remember about Barack Obama’s 2004 speech at the Democratic National Convention, and most will quote his words about unity, about there not being a black, white, Latino, or Asian America, but rather the United States of America.1But he also recognized the necessity of connecting the language of American unity to progressive policy goals. As Obama described his personal views:

[W]e are connected as one people. If there’s a child on the south side of Chicago who can’t read, that matters to me, even if it’s not my child. If there’s a senior citizen somewhere who can’t pay for her prescription and has to choose between medicine and the rent, that makes my life poorer, even if it’s not my grandmother.

Barack Obama recognized that persuading people to back policies (or candidates like himself) that call for sharing resources with others first required convincing them to identify with those other people as members of the same community—namely the American people.

Obama’s soaring depiction of our country’s story, in which we’ve committed terrible wrongs in the past but also drawn upon our founding documents and values to make remarkable progress, resonated with enough Americans to elect and re-elect him to the presidency with commanding margins—a feat accomplished by none of the Democratic Party’s three subsequent presidential candidates.

It should be obvious that Donald Trump’s vision of America represents something like the antithesis of Obama’s. What’s less obvious but equally important is that Democratic politicians—influenced by far-left academics—have in important ways departed from how the 44th president talks about our history and our national identity in the years since he left office.

Obama’s approach centers on the need to actively inculcate a sense of peoplehood that unifies Americans of every kind, even as it makes space for identities based on race, culture, religion, and more. He understood that a healthy society requires a concept of America within which people of all backgrounds can find themselves. People need to feel a sense of belonging, a sense of identity, something that connects them to a larger purpose. A concept of Americanness—a liberal patriotism—that can connect Americans to one another across boundaries is crucial to countering Trumpism broadly and racial/ethnic tribalism more specifically. Obama’s integrative vision of our national identity provides an ideological foundation for what political scientist Robert Putnam called “bridging social capital.”

Invoking Dr. Martin Luther King, Obama, in his final State of the Union, called on Americans to reject “voices urging us to fall back into our respective tribes, to scapegoat fellow citizens who don’t look like us, or pray like us, or vote like we do, or share the same background.” He called on us instead to be “inspired by those…voices that help us see ourselves not, first and foremost, as black or white, or Asian or Latino, not as gay or straight, immigrant or native-born, not as Democrat or Republican, but as Americans first, bound by a common creed.”

Where the Academic Left’s Critique of Obama Misses the Mark

The academic left broke with Obama on three critical issues: how much commonality exists across racial lines, the trajectory of history, and whether to emphasize universal or race-specific programs. These ideas raise important questions that are vital to debate and discuss. However, they are often not only problematic on the merits but also profoundly harmful to the Democratic brand.

Embrace of Race Essentialism

First, there’s the question of whether to highlight commonality across lines of race versus stressing the differences, the latter sometimes to the point of race essentialism. Obama constantly emphasized the former in a balanced way, as he did in his “A More Perfect Union: Race, Politics, and Unifying Our Country” address in 2008: “Let us find that common stake we all have in one another, and let our politics reflect that spirit as well.” Likewise, here’s the 44th president on December 6, 2024, at the Obama Foundation Democracy Forum: “Pluralism does not require us to deny our unique identities or experiences, but it does require that we try to understand the identities and experiences of others and to look for common ground.”

Obama’s approach sharply contrasts with the race essentialist mindset that characterizes the views of Robin DiAngelo, author of White Fragility. In a statement that reflects her core beliefs, she urgedwhite people to accept that “your race shaped every aspect of your life from the moment that you took your first breath.” Race is certainly an important influence on any American’s life, but DiAngelo’s statement flattens out the wide range of the lives white Americans live. Rhetoric and policy based on such ideas cannot help but fail to adequately address the real struggles of poor whites, who remain the majority of Americans living in poverty.

The Denial of Racial Progress

A second area of disagreement concerns the degree to which we have made progress reducing racism over the course of American history. In the “A More Perfect Union” speech, then-Senator Obama contrasted his view with that of his left-wing former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, in terms that could also apply to the academic left in more recent years. The problem was not in calling out racism but instead in speaking,

as if no progress had been made; as if this country…is still irrevocably bound to a tragic past. But what we know—what we have seen—is that America can change. That is the true genius of this nation. What we have already achieved gives us hope—the audacity to hope—for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.

In a sharp contrast, from its very first paragraph, The 1619 Projectlaid out its founding principle. It contends that the idea our country was born on July 4, 1776, “is wrong, and that the country’s true birth date, the moment that its defining contradictions first came into the world, was in late August of 1619”—when the first enslaved Africans arrived on our shores. At that point, “America was not yet America, but this was the moment it began.” Subsequently, The New York Times, which published this collection of essays, softened this claim as well as other similarly provocative language after receiving pushback from scholars and others. Nevertheless, the core of the argument remains that the enslavement of Africans in what would become the United States—a truly horrific, despicable practice that has no doubt cast a long shadow and still matters today—is the single most important event in our history, more important than the act of creating the nation itself.

Leaving aside the accuracy of this highly questionable assertion, a Democratic Party seen as believing it has no chance of being entrusted with governing our country. The Brahmin Left, however, ate it up, and The 1619 Project, about which historians have raised some serious questions, won the Pulitzer Prize. Similarly, Ta-Nehisi Coates, expressing sentiments that stand diametrically opposed to Obama’s, asserted about black Americans: “We were never meant to be part of the American story.” He says this without qualification. The statement is totalizing and eternal. Coates’s words carry real anguish, caused by racism, that all Democratic officials should understand, but this view fails to acknowledge progress, and its complete embrace would leave the Democratic Party with a politically unpopular worldview that makes it less able to enact positive change through policy.

The Support for Racial Preferences

A third area of at least partial disagreement centers on the question of whether to support universal programs—which disproportionately benefit Americans of color—versus those that explicitly target Americans by race. In The Audacity of Hope, Obama wrote, “An emphasis on universal, as opposed to race-specific, programs isn’t just good policy; it’s also good politics.” He also explained:

The only thing I cannot do is…pass laws that say I’m just helping black folks. I’m the president of the entire United States. What I can do is make sure that I am passing laws that help all people, particularly those who are most vulnerable and most in need. That in turn is going to help lift up the African American community.

Compare this to what Ibram X. Kendi wrote in the first edition of How to Be An Anti-Racist, perhaps the ur-text of the race essentialist academic left: “Racial discrimination is not inherently racist. The defining question is whether the discrimination is creating equity or inequity. If discrimination is creating equity, then it is antiracist.” Kendi altered this section in a subsequent edition, after facing criticism. What he wrote provided the intellectual foundation for the push in policy for equity. It stands in direct opposition to what Obama expressed in the “A More Perfect Union” speech, when he called on Americans to “do unto others as we would have them do unto us.”

Biden and Harris’s Move to the Left of Obama on Race

Academics and public intellectuals aiming to stir the conscience of their readers have goals and methods that must differ from those of politicians running for office, who seek the political power to make change. Such provocateurs can take positions to the left of mainstream politicians because, after all, they don’t need to win more votes than their opponent. But what’s especially notable here is that Democratic elected officials shifted to the left of Obama on race as well.

The Biden administration relied on several of the universal programs Obama championed, but Biden also adopted too much of the Brahmin Left’s positioning on race. His first executive order called for a government-wide focus on “equity” that, among other things, promoted DEI trainings in federal government agencies and offices. Biden’s Education Department, likewise, advanced similar thinking on race in its programming. In April 2021, the Biden White House promoted a program of grants for teaching civics and American history that both uncritically praised The 1619 Project and quoted directly from Kendi’s book.

Looking at funding, the American Rescue Plan included $4 billion of debt relief that would benefit indebted farmers of color—most of whom were African American—but excluded whites. White farmers sued on the basis of racial discrimination. This policy further entrenched the belief among some white Americans that a Democratic president and Congress—focused on equity of outcomes rather than equal rights—stood on the side of minorities and stood opposed to white interests. This was a far cry from Obama’s position that he would not pass laws that only helped black Americans. Struggling black farmers in Alabama are not better off because the government chose not to include struggling white farmers in Iowa. But the latter are definitely worse off for not getting that help, and the reason behind the policy might well lead those white farmers to resent both people of color and the Democratic officials who made that choice.

Furthermore, such choices weaken the multiracial coalition of the economically vulnerable that true progressive change requires, something Dr. King understood. In Why We Can’t Wait, he called for a “Bill of Rights for the Disadvantaged” that would include poor whites. Echoing Dr. King, Obama also tended to endorse universalist rather than race-specific policies.

Rhetorically, as well, neither Biden nor Harris decisively broke with the hard left, as Obama did when he forcefully distanced himself from Rev. Wright, or President Bill Clinton did when he distanced himself from Sister Souljah, a rapper who said after the 1992 Los Angeles riots, “If black people kill black people every day, why not have a week and kill white people?”

Some might have expected that Biden and Harris’s more race-specific equity rhetoric would have resulted in increased support among voters of color. It did not. The reality is that the wealthy white liberals who proudly declare their devotion to the principles of DiAngelo’s White Fragility or Kendi’s How to Be an Anti-Racist express positions on racial issues like policing or education that stand far to the left of most African Americans. The views of the Brahmin Left—which TLP’s Ruy Teixeira noted “have come to define the Democratic Party in the eyes of many working-class voters, despite the fact that many Democrats do not endorse them”—are alienating the very Americans most likely to face racial oppression. These groups also happen to include some of the fastest-growing segments of our voting population.

Democratic politicians must find ways to clearly distance themselves from the more extreme, unnuanced aspects of race essentialism, as Obama repeatedly has done. To be fair, President Biden and Vice President Harris on occasion employed language that echoed, at least in part, the Obama vision of America discussed here. Unfortunately, doing so does not have the same impact as putting it at the core of one’s worldview.

A Path Forward

Since Obama left office, Democrats have lost sight of the importance of his type of conception of America. He provided both an accurate picture of the country and showed an ability to win over sufficient numbers of working-class voters of every race—the overwhelming majority of whom are strongly patriotic. Democrats need to reembrace the Obama vision of America and avoid the more identity politics-based vision of the Brahmin Left if they wish to get a fair hearing from working-class Americans on policy prescriptions they propose.

Some intellectuals offer a path forward that differs from that proposed by Kendi, Coates, and The 1619 Project. Writer Heather McGhee has offered a compelling vision of how to talk about race along Obamaesque lines. She wrote:

The zero-sum story of racial hierarchy…is an invention of the worst elements of our society: people who gained power through ruthless exploitation and kept it by sowing constant division. It has always optimally benefited only the few while limiting the potential of the rest of us, and therefore the whole.

McGhee argues that Republicans pit racial and other groups against each other such that if one gains, the others must lose. That story is a false one. She notes that what she called the “race left” inadvertently contributes to this zero-sum vision by “focus[ing] on how white people benefited from systemic racism.” She argues that’s not an accurate story. Many whites suffered, rather than benefited, under the old laws of white supremacy, even as those laws harshly oppressed black Americans above all. For the most part, white people “lost right along with the rest of us. Racism got in the way of all of us having nice things.” Her key illustration is that when courts ordered desegregation of public swimming pools, some communities chose to fill in the pools rather than integrate them. Black people got hurt, but so did working-class whites. McGhee’s formulation is both accurate and politically persuasive to a broad audience.

Democrats need to move away from the language of equity, which implies that it would be acceptable to close the racial gaps in health or education by helping members of the disadvantaged racial groups improve while denying any help to lower-income whites. Obama understood this reality instinctively, as he made clear in his “A More Perfect Union” speech. He called on all Americans to “realize that your dreams do not have to come at the expense of my dreams; that investing in the health, welfare, and education of black and brown and white children will ultimately help all of America prosper.” Like the 44th president did, today’s Democrats must talk along these lines regularly and weave these concepts into their communication about all kinds of issues, not just on special occasions.

To reorient themselves, Democrats must make some choices and offer newer, more inspiring alternatives than they have in recent years. Barack Obama brilliantly walked a middle path between extremes. He managed to acknowledge inequities and the need for more progress while also offering hope. Obama flatly rejected the faddish vision that, in the words of Teixeira, claims “America was born in slavery, marinated in racism, and remains a white supremacist society, shot through with multiple, intersecting levels of injustice that make everybody either oppressed or oppressor on a daily basis.”

Perhaps nowhere did Obama strike the balance better than in his speech commemorating the 50th anniversary of the Selma to Montgomery Voting Rights March. Obama asked:

What could more profoundly vindicate the idea of America than plain and humble people—the unsung, the downtrodden, the dreamers not of high station, not born to wealth or privilege, not of one religious tradition but many—coming together to shape their country’s course? What greater expression of faith in the American experiment than this; what greater form of patriotism is there; than the belief that America is not yet finished, that we are strong enough to be self-critical, that each successive generation can look upon our imperfections and decide that it is in our power to remake this nation to more closely align with our highest ideals?

To right the ship, tell a credible and also inspiring story, and win elections, a new generation of Democrats needs to recapture this same spirit.

1 This article draws upon a longer report published by the Progressive Policy Institute, as well as from my books, Obama’s America: A Transformative Vision of Our National Identity (Washington, D.C.: Potomac Books, 2012) and Riling up the Base: Examining Trump’s Use of Stereotypes through an Interdisciplinary Lens (Boston: DeGruyter Brill, 2025, co-authored with Anastacia Kurylo), along with my article, “How Progressives Talk about July 4 and Our National History in the Post-Trump Presidency Era” (Daily Kos, 2024).


Trump’s Week of ‘Massive Legal Losses’ Merits More Attention

Julianne McShane has a review of “Trump’s Week of Massive Legal Losses” at Mother Jones. Here’s an excerpt:

  • Last Friday, a federal appeals court ruled that Trump’s reciprocal tariffswere basically illegal, as my colleague Inae Oh covered. (On Truth Social, Trump alleged the court was “Highly Partisan,” adding, “If these Tariffs ever went away, it would be a total disaster for the Country.”)
  • The same day, a federal judge ruled that the administration could not fast-track deportations of people detained far from the southern border. (White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller called the ruling a “judicial coup.”)
  • Last Sunday, a federal judge temporarily blocked the administration from deporting hundreds of unaccompanied Guatemalan children. (Miller alleged the “Biden judge” was “effectively kidnapping these migrant children.”)
  • On Tuesday, an appeals court upheld a lower court’s ruling requiring Trump to rehire fired Federal Trade Commissioner Rebecca Kelly Slaughter. That prompted the administration to ask the Supreme Courtto allow the firing to proceed.
  • The same day, a federal judge ruled that Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to Los Angeles was illegal, alleging that the president and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth are “creating a national police force with the President as its chief.” (White House spokesperson Anna Kelly characterized the ruling as “a rogue judge…trying to usurp the authority of the commander in chief to protect American cities from violence and destruction.”)
  • On Wednesday, a federal judge ruled that the administration broke the law when it froze billions of dollars in research funds to Harvard. (White House spokesperson Liz Huston called the decision “egregious.”)
  • On Thursday, an appeals court ruled that Trump could not cancel billions of dollars in foreign aid without getting approval from Congress. (The administration already appealed the decision.)
  • And on Friday, a federal judge blocked Trump from revoking the temporary legal status of hundreds of thousands of Haitian and Venezuelan immigrants. (A Department of Homeland Security spokesperson said the ruling “delays justice,” adding, “unelected activist judges cannot stop the will of the American people for a safe and secure homeland.”)

Read more here.