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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Rosenberg: Mounting Reasons for Democratic Optimism, With Cautionary Notes

The following excerpt of the podcast transcript of  “Why I’m Optimistic We Will Win This November – My Latest 2024 Election Take (5/1/24)” by Simon Rosenberg is cross-posted from his blog, Hopium Chronicles:

As I reviewed last night, here’s my basic take on the 2024 election right now:

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. We have a very strong case for re-election.

The Democratic Party is strong, unified, raising tons of money and winning elections all across the country.

And what do they have? They have Trump, the ugliest political thing any of us has ever seen, leading a party far more a raging dumpster fire than a well- oiled political machine.

One of the things I discussed was my take on recent polling. Here’s what I am seeing now…..(all polls can be found on 538)

In 538’s national Presidential polling average Biden has gained 1.7 pts against Trump in recent weeks, and the general election head to head is essentially tied. We’ve also seen a 3.5 pt gain for Democrats in recent months in 538’s Congressional Generic (which party will you support for Congress), and Dems now have a slight lead though it too is essentially tied. A majority of the national polls this week have the Biden tied or ahead, with 3 – Marist, Ipsos and FAU showing small Biden leads. It’s a close, competitive election with Dems gaining some ground in recent weeks.

In the battle for control of Congress, our Senate candidates all show modest but consistent leads, and Navigator Research has found our House candidates in better shape than Rs in the battleground. Lots of work ahead but this early data is encouraging.

In the Presidential battlegrounds, both polls this week – CBS and Emerson – had all the states they polled inside margin of error. The CBS poll was a little more favorable to Biden than Emerson but again what both found was the battleground states up for grabs.

I’m also coming to believe that these “bad candidate” problems Republicans had in 2022 are occurring again this year, and is going to become material in many of the battleground states this year, particularly in Arizona, North Carolina and possibly Wisconsin too. Kari Lake and the 1864 fiasco are going to be huge drag on the GOP in Arizona. Bat shit crazy Mark Robinson is going to be a big drag on the Rs in North Carolina based on recent polling, and a very not ready for prime time Eric Hovde is already struggling in Wisconsin. The strength of our candidates in the battleground right now – and their weakness – is an increasingly important part of how 2024 is unfolding.

Part of the reason Hopium has been focusing so much on Arizona and North Carolina for our political work is that given how extreme and wild the top of the ticket is in both states I think more is possible in both states this year. And let’s be very clear – if Biden wins AZ and NC we are going to win the election this November.

Rosenberg adds that “as people move from being an adult to registered voter to likely voter to actual voter and are faced with pulling that lever for MAGA Trump and Republicans lose ground. As voters get get closer to voting, and go through the process of having to consider the options in front of them, a meaningful number just can’t go for MAGA and either don’t vote or choose another option (Haley, the Dem). This 2024 MAGA ugliness and extremism is too much for too many, and the GOP coalition doesn’t stay together, Republican candidates struggle, underperform and lose, again and again.”

Further, “every day we need to do more, worry less. For doing more is what is going to make sure we win this November.” In addition, “There is an area I think of enormous opportunity for us in the coming months – we go bring our coalition back together and keep theirs splintered and unhappy with the MAGA takeover of their party.”

Rosenberg cautions that Dems have to stop the leakage of support from Latino and African Americans. Regarding the pro-Palestinian demonstrations on the nation’s campuses, “The bottom line – I think the protesters are blowing it right now. While we should always support peaceful protests, these protests have not been as peaceful as many profess, and they should not and cannot interfere with the millions of students taking their finals and graduating in the coming weeks.”

Click on this link to read more of Rosenberg’s podcast transcript and to hear his entire podcast.

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