Adam Doster’s Alternet/In These Times post “How Obama Could Radically Alter the Election Map This Fall” sheds light on the Obama campaign’s “grow the pie” voter registration mobilization.
Peter Nicholas’s “David Plouffe is the man steering Obama’s campaign” in today’s LA Times profiles Obama’s strategy wizard.
On a related topic, Peter Dreier has a Dissent article, “Will Obama Inspire a New Generation of Organizers?“, which explores how Obama’s activist experience informs his candidacy.
Oppo Alert: Those following the book buzz about “How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the American Dream” by Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam should check out Matthew Continetti’s Weekly Standard review article “Here’s My Plan: Winning blue-collar votes in red states.”
The Economist post “White Men Can Vote” ponders several theories as to why Dems’ don’t get more traction with a pivotal constituency.
George Lakoff’s HuffPo article “The Mind and the Obama Magic” makes the cognitive/brain sciences case that Obama should resist “nuanced” adjustments of his policies that drift toward the center.
Well, they’re at it again, the National Black Republican Association. This time it’s billboards, at least 7 in FL and one in SC, claiming against all reason and evidence that MLK was a Republican. You can see the grotesque things right here and read about the controversy here. What did MLK really think about Republicans? Read what he actually said here.

You know all that pundit chin music about McCain’s bright prospects for winning the Hispanic vote? The hard evidence is scant, to put it charitably, according to a HuffPo article by Mark Feierstein and Ana Iparraguirre, public opinion anlaysts for Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. As the authors point out:

Democrats also continue to retain their advantage as the party most attuned to Hispanics. In a poll earlier this year among Latino voters in California and the southwest, Democrats held a whopping 10 to 1 advantage as the party that understands the concerns of Hispanics. Obama also holds a lead among these voters of more than 20 points on the issue of most concern to Latinos (and voters overall): the economy.
…Obama is running well ahead of John McCain among Hispanics, and significantly better than John Kerry did against George Bush in 2004. Obama’s leads in national polls are due to his strong advantage (about 35 points) among Latinos. Take out Hispanics, and the race is effectively tied.

Further,

…George Bush’s approval rating has plummeted to below 30 percent among Hispanics, just as it has among the general public. Half as many Hispanics have a favorable image of the Republican Party as of the Democrats.

That doesn’t mean Obama will have a cakewalk, as Iparraguirre and Feierstein point out:

Democrats cannot take the Hispanic vote for granted, however. Despite McCain’s shift on immigration, he remains a formidable opponent. He is more competitive with Obama than a generic party match-up would suggest. McCain will likely seek to blunt the Democrats’ advantage on the economy by stressing national security and social issues like abortion and gay marriage on which many Hispanics hold conservative views.

Still, Latino voters are intensely concerned about the economy, as well as immigration issues, and the Democratic message and policies are resonating well with this pivotal constituency.

Christopher Cooper and Susan Davis shed more light on the Obama campaign’s efforts to maximize African American voter registration in their excellent Wall St. Journal article on the topic. A couple of nut graphs:

For Sen. Obama, the registration initiative is at the fore, especially since the main reason for low black turnout is low registration. The U.S. Census Bureau says that while registered black voters turn out at a rate generally even with white counterparts, qualified African-Americans register at a lower rate nationally — 68% to 75% for whites. The gap is particularly stark in the battleground state of Florida, where only 53% of eligible blacks were registered in 2004, compared with 71% of whites. In Virginia, it was 58% to 72%.
If Sen. Obama can achieve registration parity, the effect could be significant, since African-Americans traditionally vote Democratic about 90% of the time. Nationally, black turnout at white levels would have meant an additional 1.6 million voters in 2004, narrowing the three million-vote gap separating President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry. In states and districts with a heavy concentration of black citizens, the gap could have thrown victory to Democrats, including North Carolina, long a Republican stronghold, and currently considered a virtual toss-up by many analysts.

Naturally, the Republicans are already hard at work trying to suppress the Black vote:

If history is a guide, Republican campaigners will likely mount legal challenges to Sen. Obama’s voter-registration efforts. Although Democrats aren’t shy to litigate, it is Republicans who have generally opposed efforts to make registration procedures easier and have made such legal challenges, along with voter purges, a part of their election-year strategy, especially in close states. They did this in Florida and Ohio in 2000 and 2004 — unfairly, many Democrats charge. Louisiana’s Republican secretary of state has begun investigating the recent registration efforts of a Democratic-backed organization following reports that many applicants were either dead or fictional.

Republican leaders frequently take shots at Dems for being insufficiently patriotic. Yet racially-driven voter suppression remains an enduring cornerstone of their electoral strategy. Shameless.

Mike Dorning of the Chicago Tribune Washington Bureau reports on a new study by his newspaper indicating big gains in store for Dems if they can produce a modest increase in turnout of youth and African American voters. Dorning’s article, flagged by Facing South‘s Chris Kromm, has this to say about Obama’s prospects for picking up nine states Bush won in ’04:

If Obama could inspire just 10 percent more Democratic voters under 30 to go to the polls than did four years ago, that alone could be enough to switch Iowa and New Mexico from red to blue, the analysis suggests.
Just a 10 percent increase in turnout among blacks would make up more than 40 percent of George W. Bush’s 2004 victory margin in Ohio and more than 20 percent of the Republicans’ 2004 victory margin in Florida.
Turnout increases of 10 percent of both young voters and African-Americans could virtually eliminate the Republicans’ 2004 victory margin in Ohio and go a long way to closing the gap in Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Virginia and—a bit more of a stretch—possibly North Carolina.
…A host of Republican states would come into play, while Democratic leads would be substantially cushioned in major blue states that the presumed Republican candidate John McCain has targeted: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Dorning points out that Black registration and general election turnout increased 11 percent in 1984, when Rev. Jesse Jackson ran for President in the primaries — even though Walter Mondale was the nominee. In addition, African American turnout in the ’08 primaries is double the ’04 figures, according to David Bositis of the Joint Center for Political Studies. (See also J.P. Green’s recent post on Black turnout) Dorning adds,

That potential helps explain why the Obama campaign chose to forgo federal funding and also why it is engaged in a massive voter registration drive. With its unprecedented resources, the campaign can fund an array of specific targeting operations, and Obama exploited early versions of those to great success during the primary campaign.

Dorning cautions that the Republicans are also improving their micro-targeting turnout operation that was so successful in key states like Ohio in ’04. However the scale of the Obama campaign’s voter registration drive and turnout effort will likely be unmatched.

Thomas F. Schaller hosts a Salon roundtable today on “The swing states of 2008.” His guests include pollster Paul Maslin (Dean’s ’04, Richardson ’08), Andres Ramirez, v. p. for Hispanic Programs and director of the Hispanic Strategy Center at NDN; and conservative blogger Ross Douthat, sr. editor at The Atlantic. Their discusssion is largely speculative and the panel is wary of taking early horse-race polls too seriously. But their insights about registration trends in the SW, the candidates’ age difference in PA, the effect of the Democratic Party’s decision on MI delegates, the benefit to McCain from picking Crist or Condi and other topics are informative. One of the things they seem to agree on is that NM is the state most likely to flip to Blue, with NH the best candidate to flip red. But they see VA, IA, PA, MI and FL as very much in play and have a couple of surprises that may be up for grabs.

The political ad war between Obama and McCain is well underway, and Shane D’Aprile of Campaigns & Elections emag Politics has a report and preview.
Check out “I’m Voting Republican,” a funny reverse psychology ad now gathering buzz.
Slate‘s David Roth has an interesting video report on the “Spot Runner” political ad phenomenon, which provides decent-looking video for internet ad clips for local candidates — for less than $500.
Another cheap, but clever ad technique — this one in the form of Republican robocalls (via ‘Freedomwatch’) blaming three dozen Dem congressmen for high gas prices (Talk about nerve). Dems should respond with robocalls nailing even more Republicans for opposing tougher CAFE standards.
The Grey Lady and WaPo obits of political ad pioneer Tony Schwartz include insightful nuggets of ad strategy and tips for making compelling TV ads.
You may know a lot of people who put more face time in front of their PC than their TV’s — 42 percent of Americans now say they get political information from the internet. Yet eMarketer reports that this year only 2 percent of political ad expenditures will go online, compared to an estimated 50 to 80 percent for television. This despite 87 million voters using the internet.
Last and best, today the Obama campaign is releasing a 60 second TV ad in 18 ‘battleground’ states, and you get to see it right here and now, courtesy of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Political Insider.

Elizabeth Drew, ace critic for the New York Review of Books, gives Senator Jim Webb’s new book “A Time to Fight: Reclaiming a Fair and Just America” a strong thumbs up. Drew is clearly impressed with Webb’s character, as well as his writing skills, and her review may add a little volume to the Webb for Veep buzz. Drew notes Webb’s controversial statements regarding women in the military and his defense of the Vietnam War as “strategically necessary,” two positions that are problematic for some liberal Democrats. (For more on Webbs veep prospects, feminist concerns about Webb and his book, see Ed Kilgore’s TDS post on Webb in the veepstakes here).
Drew nonetheless offers perceptive insights into the strengths Webb would bring to the Democratic ticket and says “…Webb offers a fresh approach to politics and stirs an excitement that would provide the ticket with more pizzazz than would some of the more conventional figures whose names are in play.” And, as Drew points out, the publication of Webb’s political manifesto does seem exceptionally well-timed.

Robert Creamer has a HuffPo must-read “How Obama Can Win Over Seniors and Turn the November Election Into a Democratic Landslide.” Noting that Obama trails McCain by 22 percent among white Seniors in current polls, Creamer has some creative suggestions to close the gap. Here’s a teaser:

Democrats should not attempt to “soften” their opposition to the Iraq War by trying to sound more like Republicans. We need to be clear that the Bush-McCain policies have failed precisely because they have made America less safe, weakened our military, strengthened our adversaries and isolated America in the world. Seniors fear that Obama might not be “strong” enough personally in dealing with world issues. He – and Democrats generally – need to show them that we are “strong” by standing up forcefully for our own view of the policy that can make us safer – and that we are more patriotic in that regard than reckless right-wingers who have in fact made us less secure.
* The “cost of war” frame is particularly powerful with seniors. They agree strongly that it is outrageous that Bush and McCain have spent hundreds of billions on the War in Iraq, but can’t find the money to pay for health care….Democrats need to repeatedly go right at McCain’s competency and judgment when it comes to Iraq — to remind them that his judgment about going to war in Iraq in the first place was wrong.

It’s a good read for all Dem candidates who want to get a bigger piece of a critical high-turnout constituency. See also J. P. Green’s recent TDS post “Beating McCain — With Seniors” for more on this important topic.

Bart Jansen’s CQPolitics post “Softer-Touch Marketing Woos Cross-Party Voter” reports on Democratic consultants’ soft-sell approaches to win GOP-held House districts trending purple. As Jansen explains:

This new breed of campaign consultants typically hews to sotto voce campaign themes: guarded, post-ideological messages that are calculated to reassure cross-party and independent voters…Democrats have to campaign in purple districts ever so softly. A key element of the strategy to hang on to these “majority maker” districts is to downplay any suggestion that the incumbents — mostly members of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition — might rub their constituents the wrong way, ideologically speaking, and to highlight the ways they’ll be fighting on behalf of their districts in more crucial everyday struggles.

Jansen cites the recent victories of Travis W. Childers in N.E. Mississippi and Bart Cazayoux in Baton Rouge as emblematic wins by Blue Dog Dems using soft sell strategies. He quotes retiring Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, former head of the NRCC:

The Democrats have cracked the code, and we still have an admissions test to get into the party and be a candidate…Democrats are smart. They want to win. Our guys still want to be right.

Jansen reports that many of the new Blue Dog candidates are quite conservative, particularly on social issues, though usually more progressive than their Republican opponents on key economic issues. While some liberal Dems have concerns about over-stretching their party’s “Big Tent,’ fortunately the Republican establishment remains hell-bent on pursuing their incredible shrinking tent strategy.

In some Democratic circles the notion is quickly dismissed. But Obama’s expected nomination opens up the possibility that ’08 could be the year that Democrats secure some beachheads in the south, the region most African Americans call home. For an update on Democratic prospects in the south, check out Louis Jacobson’s largely skeptical Stateline.org post “Will Obama have coattails in the South?” (flagged by Facing South‘s Chris Kromm). Among Jacobson’s more encouraging observations:

On a statewide level, the biggest down-ballot impact for Democrats will likely come in the close race for North Carolina open-seat governorship, which pits Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R). Even before the presidential primaries began, incumbent Democrats seemed to be well-positioned to retain several other statewide posts in the Tarheel State, including attorney general and secretary of state.
…When North Carolina Democratic chairman Jerry Meek endorsed Sen. Obama the day after the North Carolina primary, he said, “I cited my belief that he would have a substantial down-ballot effect. It will be strongest in statewide races, and all of those are intensely competitive.”
Only three of every four people who voted for president in North Carolina’s Democratic primary also voted in lower contests, such as the labor commissioner race. Still, the total Democratic turnout was three times as high as the Republican turnout, so one can expect that many of the new voters will have an impact in the fall as well, said John Davis, president of the North Carolina Forum for Research and Economic Education, a business and political research group. “Obama’s impact down-ballot will be huge for Democrats, if he is able to sustain his momentum,” Davis said.

On the Senate:

Two U.S. Senate seats — those held by Republicans Roger Wicker of Mississippi and Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina — are far more threatened by former Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) and North Carolina state Sen. Kay Hagan (D) than had been predicted just a few months ago. And endangered U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) may find an energized black base her only way to win a third term given the state’s population loss following Hurricane Katrina.

Jacobson has a lot to say about possible conservative backlash, that Obama will actually increase the GOP vote. That’s a question mark, based on the debatable assumption that previously apolitical reactionaries will turn out to vote against Obama. What appears to be a sure bet, on the other hand, is a record-level Black turnout in the South — a major asset for down ballot Dems.