Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has a new study, “Assessing the Impact of Sarah Palin on the Women’s Vote,” the best data-driven analysis of the ‘Palin effect’ on women voters thus far. The study, conducted 9/2-3 for the Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund, surveyed 1356 women, inlcuding 1295 lv’s. Here’s the nut graph from the executive summary:
After viewing the acceptance speech of the first female vice presidential candidate for the Republican party, there was no positive electoral movement toward the Republican ticket among either married or unmarried women in these groups. Some unmarried women moved toward the Republican ticket, but an equal number moved against McCain and Palin.
The study also found that “unmarried women are much more skeptical” about Palin than married women and “significantly less likely…to believe that she is an asset to the Republican ticket.” Obama’s margin with unmarried women increased from 28 to 36 percent after the Palin nomination, though “largely because of a drop for McCain.” In addition the GQR memo on the survey noted,
Married women are divided (39 percent much or somewhat more likely, 36 percent much or somewhat less likely), while unmarried women are clearly turned off by the Republican Convention (27 percent much or somewhat more, 45 percent much or somewhat less).
The survey found that Obama has a 15 point lead among women lv’s overall, driven by his edge with unmarried women and younger unmarried women in particular. Interestingly, McCain’s slight lead with married women remains “unchanged since July.” Obama now holds a 55 to 32 percent lead with white, unmarried women, while he lags by 15 points among white married women (39 to 55 percent).
Meanwhile a new ABC News poll (505 adults, 4.5 moe), conducted 9/4 found,
Men are slightly more apt than women to say Palin’s experienced enough for the presidency, 46 percent to 39 percent, with more women unsure about it. Seventy-four percent of Republicans say she’s sufficiently experienced; 44 percent of independents and 21 percent of Democrats agree.
Clearly, polls indicate that the Palin nomination has not helped sway many voters toward the GOP thus far. For the Republicans, it’s all about cranking up registration and turnout among conservatives.