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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Obama Grabs lead in VA Poll

A SurveyUSA poll of 900 adults (including 817 RV’s, 732LV’s) taken today in VA (before the Lehman Bros. meltdown) suggests the McCain-Palin bump may be flattening out. Here’s an excerpt from the wrap up:

…Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll…Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America’s 2008 battleground.
One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1. One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama.
In Virginia, there is still no evidence that Sarah Palin is attracting women to the GOP ticket. McCain polled at 44% before he picked Palin, and at 43% in each of the two polls conducted after Palin was announced.

The poll also lends some cred to Vega’s argument in his Saturday post that “thoughtful middle of the road voters” may hold the key going forward, with Obama leading McCain among VA’s moderate LV’s 58 to 38 percent.

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