By Alan Abramowitz
Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania are the big three in the presidential race. John Kerry and George Bush were both in Florida this morning. Kerry will be in Pennsylvania and Ohio later today. Bush will be there shortly. Both campaigns see these three states as the most crucial in the entire nation. Whoever wins two of these three states will probably win the election and right now George Bush is in big trouble in all three.
In seven polls conducted since the first presidential debate, John Kerry held an average lead of 4.0 points over George Bush among likely voters in Pennsylvania. Kerry led Bush in all seven polls.
In five polls conducted since the first presidential debate, John Kerry held an average lead of 1.2 points over George Bush among likely voters in Ohio. Kerry led Bush in four of the five polls. No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio.
In nine polls conducted since the first presidential debate, George Bush held an average lead of 0.8 points over John Kerry among likely voters in Florida. Kerry led in four polls, Bush led in four, and one was tied. In the four most recent polls, conducted since October 10, Kerry led in two, Bush in one, and one was tied. Kerry led by an average of 0.5 points in these four polls.
Kerry also led Bush by an average of 4.4 points in five polls conducted in the small but important state of New Hampshire–a state that George Bush carried in 2000. Kerry led in four of the five polls with one poll tied.
George Bush is not leading in a single state that Al Gore carried in the 2000 election. And remember, recent history shows that an incumbent president needs a lead of 3-4 points in the final polls in order to win because undecided voters tend to break heavily for the challenger.

By Alan Abramowitz
This poll of New Jersey likely voters is by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, a long-established, very reputable polling organization. Kerry leads by 13 among likely voters. Kerry’s firm support is 48 percent; Bush’s firm support is 36. Kerry is likely to carry NJ by about the same margin as Gore did four years ago. This state is not in play.

John Kerry leads George Bush 50-47 percent of nation-wide LV’s, according to a Democracy Corps Poll, conducted 10/17-18.

John Kerry leads George Bush 48-46 percent of Ohio LV’s, according to a poll by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinatti, conducted 10/11-17.

John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 46 percent of nation-wide RV’s, according to a New York Times/CBS News Poll, conducted 10/14-17. Bush’s approval rating is 44 percent.

“They’re the ones I pay attention to”
–Matthew Dowd, Bush’s chief campaign strategist, on Gallup relative to other polling organizations, quoted in today’s New York Times

John Kerry leads George Bush among LV’s in: in FL +1; PA +6; OR +9 and WA +7. He trails Bush in: AR -5 and NC -3 (stat. tie), according to SurveyUSA Polls conducted 10/15-17.

By Alan Abramowitz
If you just look at their results for registered voters, there has actually been very little change in the Gallup Poll results since early October. Bush had a 1 point lead then, he has a 3 point lead now. Not that different from what most other polls have been showing. Almost all of the change since their last poll is in the results for likely voters. Unfortunately, the likely voter number is the only one the media will focus on now.
So how do you go from a 3 point lead among registered voters to an 8 point lead among likely voters? By projecting that 89 percent of registered Bush supporters will vote but only 81 percent of registered Kerry supporters will vote. But as we know, this is totally unrealistic.

By Alan Abramowitz
A new Gallup poll has George Bush leading John Kerry by 8 points among likely voters. A new Democracy Corps poll has Kerry leading Bush by 3 points among likely voters. Who should you believe? Hint: If you’ve been following my previous messages, you should know the answer to this question.
Remember, in 2000, Democracy Corps’ final poll, released five days before the election, was right on the money. In fact, every D.C. poll in the final weeks of the 2000 campaign showed the race to be very, very close.
Remember, a Gallup poll released on October 26, 2000, less than two weeks before the election, had George Bush leading Al Gore by 13 points! Numerous Gallup polls during the final weeks of the 2000 campaign had Bush with ludicrously large leads.
And this time, Gallup has Bush ahead by 8 among likely voters but by 3 among registered voters. This is just too large a gap between registered and likely voters.
It looked for a while, after the first debate, like the Gallup Poll was getting reasonable again. Looks like they were just teasing us.

The new Time poll, conducted October 14-15, has the race tied 46-46 in a 2-way RV matchup. That’s pretty bad for an incumbent seeking re-election, but the rest of the poll has even worse news.
Start with the debates. The poll confirms that voters see Kerry as the winner of the final debate (37-28), though not by the crushing margin of the first debate (59-23). But when asked to consider all three presidential debates, voters do indeed see Kerry as the victor by a crushing margin, 57-27.
Moreover, voters give Kerry very high marks on specific aspects of the last debate, despite the fact that they were less likely to see him as the overall winner. This presumably reflects the extent to which (positive) impressions of Kerry are settling in voters’ minds.
For example, by 49-40 voters thought Kerry, rather than Bush, had the best understanding of the issues. That’s actually better than after the first debate, when voters saw the candidates tied on this attribute.
And then there’s this one: on who “took positions on issues that are closer to your own”, voters gave Kerry a wide 54-39 margin after the last debate, compared to 48-42 after the first debate.
And how about this one: after the first debate, voters gave Bush a slight one point edge on who seemed more presidential; after the last debate, voters gave Kerry the edge, 49-44.
On which candidate can be trusted more on different issues and in different areas, the poll finds little change from their post-first debate poll. Kerry’s gains after that debate have apparently stabilized.
Here are some of these gains, as summarized in the SRBI release on the poll:

Handling of the economy: Kerry has opened a 6 point lead over Bush, 49% – 43%. Just before the first debate, the candidates were even, 44% for each.
Health care: Kerry has widened his lead to 13 points, 51%-38%. Before the debates, Kerry had an 8 point edge.
Understanding people’s needs: Kerry is up by 7 points, 49% – 42%. Before the debates, he was up by just 4 points.
Commander-in-Chief: Bush is ahead by 10 points, 51%-41%, but this has narrowed from a 16 point advantage before the debates.
Providing leadership in difficult times: Bush leads by 8 points, 52%-40%. Before the debates, he dominated by as much as 21 points.
War on terrorism: Bush tops Kerry 51%-40%, after leading Kerry by as much as 18 points before the debates.

The poll also asked about some of the specific issues Kerry and Bush differed on in the last debate.
Assault weapons. By 73-22, voters favor the ban on assault weapons; by 49-8 they feel gun control laws should be more strict, not less strict; and by 41-40 they say Kerry is closer to their position on gun control than Bush.
Embryonic stem cell research: By 69-22 voter favor using discarded embryos to conduct stem cell research; by 49-34 they say Kerry is closer to their position on this issue than Bush.
Abortion. Voters say by 45-40 that Kerry is closer to their position than Bush on this issue.
Gay rights. Voters say by 44-41 that Kerry is closer to their position than Bush on this issue; by 54-41 they oppose amending the US constitution to ban same-sex couples from marrying.
Supreme Court appointments. By 43-38, voters say the issue of Supreme Court appointments makes them more likely to vote for Kerry rather than Bush.