John Kerry leads George Bush 50-47 percent of nation-wide LV’s, according to a Democracy Corps Poll, conducted 10/17-18.
3 comments on “Democracy Corps Poll: Kerry Leads by 3%”
scottso on
Fellow donkeys,
If the good news from this DCorps poll isn’t enough to boost your spirits, I strongly recommend heading over to democracycorps.com and checking out their Public Polling chart (right column, about halfway down), which provides a superb summary of the state of the polls right now, both nationally and at the state level (and it includes our favorite statistic: the D/R split). In it you will find that the average of polls for this past several days has GWB with 47% support. Not only that, but the number has been remarkably static close to a month now. By contrast, JFK’s support has risen gradually and steadily, from 43-44% pre-debates, to 45% after debate #1, 46% after #2, and 47% after number 3. This really confirms what all of us thought must be the case all along: the majority of the country is pretty unhappy with Bush, and was just waiting all along to be convinced that Kerry was the right man to replace him. Most of them have now been convinced, and them who haven’t will be on November 2nd.
We all know that Bush at 47% is toast — but if you’re still pessimistic, consider the following:
1. The polls summarized by DCorps are all for LVs — if it were RVs then Kerry would be doing even better, as has been the case in almost every poll during the entire campaign season.
2. We have had positive documentation from the NY Times that the Dems kicked some serious a** in new vote registration — so much that even the pachyderm’s shredding forms & denying applications won’t be enough to counteract it.
3. With Kerry poised to win this race 51-47, we really don’t even have to sweat the Electoral College, but in case you want to do that, DCorps’ report has similar summaries for all the state polls, showing — shock of all shocks — Bush’s support running at 47% or lower in essentially EVERY battleground state that is still being seriously contested: PA, OH, FL, MI, MN, IA, WI, NH, NV, CO. Right now, Kerry stands poised to win EVERY ONE of these states!! Even if Jeb & Co. steal FL, we got room to spare.
The absolutely stability of Bush’s 47% is actually very good news — it means that nothing he’s done for the last month has garnered him any extra support. This race appears to have entered a static phase, and may change very little over the next 2 weeks. So rejoice! We are hurtling toward victory!
Now prepare for a very late night on November 2nd — to see if we take back the Senate!
Most interesting question in the survery:
“In last election, did you vote for Bush or Gore?”
Respondents said they voted for Bush by 50-44.
If the respondents are reporting accurately (a big ‘if’), then this describes the polling bias. If the polling bias is +6 for Bush, we can expect good things in 2 weeks.
I think that one of the most telling aspects of this poll is that it is based on a polling population that voted 55 for Bush to 44 for Gore in 2000 and now favors Kerry by 50 Kerry and 47 for Bush.
This year’s big media narrative has been the confirmation saga of Neera Tanden, Biden’s nominee for director of the Office of Management and Budget. At New York I wrote about how over-heated the talk surrounding Tanden has become.
Okay, folks, this is getting ridiculous. When a vote in the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on the nomination of Neera Tanden was postponed earlier this week, you would have thought it presented an existential threat to the Biden presidency. “Scrutiny over Tanden’s selection has continued to build as the story over her uneven reception on Capitol Hill stretched through the week,” said one Washington Post story. Politico Playbook suggested that if Tanden didn’t recover, the brouhaha “has the potential to be what Biden might call a BFD.” There’sbeen all sorts of unintentionally funny speculation about whether the White House is playing some sort of “three-dimensional chess” in its handling of the confirmation, disguising a nefarious plan B or C.
Perhaps it reflects the law of supply and demand, which requires the inflation of any bit of trouble for Biden into a crisis. After all, his Cabinet nominees have been approved by the Senate with a minimum of 56 votes; the second-lowest level of support was 64 votes. One nominee who was the subject of all sorts of initial shrieking, Tom Vilsack, was confirmed with 92 Senate votes. Meanwhile, Congress is on track to approve the largest package of legislation moved by any president since at least the Reagan budget of 1981, with a lot of the work on it being conducted quietly in both chambers. Maybe if the bill hits some sort of roadblock, or if Republican fury at HHS nominee Xavier Becerra (whose confirmation has predictably become the big fundraising and mobilization vehicle for the GOP’s very loud anti-abortion constituency) reaches a certain decibel level, Tanden can get out of the spotlight for a bit.
But what’s really unfair — and beyond that, surreal — is the extent to which this confirmation is being treated as more important than all the others combined, or indeed, as a make-or-break moment for a presidency that has barely begun. It’s not. If Tanden cannot get confirmed, the Biden administration won’t miss a beat, and I am reasonably sure she will still have a distinguished future in public affairs (though perhaps one without much of a social-media presence). And if she is confirmed, we’ll all forget about the brouhaha and begin focusing on how she does the job, which she is, by all accounts, qualified to perform.
Fellow donkeys,
If the good news from this DCorps poll isn’t enough to boost your spirits, I strongly recommend heading over to democracycorps.com and checking out their Public Polling chart (right column, about halfway down), which provides a superb summary of the state of the polls right now, both nationally and at the state level (and it includes our favorite statistic: the D/R split). In it you will find that the average of polls for this past several days has GWB with 47% support. Not only that, but the number has been remarkably static close to a month now. By contrast, JFK’s support has risen gradually and steadily, from 43-44% pre-debates, to 45% after debate #1, 46% after #2, and 47% after number 3. This really confirms what all of us thought must be the case all along: the majority of the country is pretty unhappy with Bush, and was just waiting all along to be convinced that Kerry was the right man to replace him. Most of them have now been convinced, and them who haven’t will be on November 2nd.
We all know that Bush at 47% is toast — but if you’re still pessimistic, consider the following:
1. The polls summarized by DCorps are all for LVs — if it were RVs then Kerry would be doing even better, as has been the case in almost every poll during the entire campaign season.
2. We have had positive documentation from the NY Times that the Dems kicked some serious a** in new vote registration — so much that even the pachyderm’s shredding forms & denying applications won’t be enough to counteract it.
3. With Kerry poised to win this race 51-47, we really don’t even have to sweat the Electoral College, but in case you want to do that, DCorps’ report has similar summaries for all the state polls, showing — shock of all shocks — Bush’s support running at 47% or lower in essentially EVERY battleground state that is still being seriously contested: PA, OH, FL, MI, MN, IA, WI, NH, NV, CO. Right now, Kerry stands poised to win EVERY ONE of these states!! Even if Jeb & Co. steal FL, we got room to spare.
The absolutely stability of Bush’s 47% is actually very good news — it means that nothing he’s done for the last month has garnered him any extra support. This race appears to have entered a static phase, and may change very little over the next 2 weeks. So rejoice! We are hurtling toward victory!
Now prepare for a very late night on November 2nd — to see if we take back the Senate!
Most interesting question in the survery:
“In last election, did you vote for Bush or Gore?”
Respondents said they voted for Bush by 50-44.
If the respondents are reporting accurately (a big ‘if’), then this describes the polling bias. If the polling bias is +6 for Bush, we can expect good things in 2 weeks.
I think that one of the most telling aspects of this poll is that it is based on a polling population that voted 55 for Bush to 44 for Gore in 2000 and now favors Kerry by 50 Kerry and 47 for Bush.