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Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

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Jewish Voters Still Overwhelmingly Democratic

Jim Gerstein, executive director of Democracy Corps, has a post up at Politico, vaporizing the GOP meme that President Obama and Democrats are losing support of Jewish voters.
Gerstein begins by pointing out that conservatives tried to peddle this meme in 2000 and 2004 and 2008 with less than impressive outcomes: Al Gore got 78 percent of the Jewish vote in 2000, John Kerry received 74 percent and Obama was supported by 78 percent of Jewish voters, despite an extensive Republican propaganda efforts.
As for the November 2nd midterms, Gerstein says,

Now, with midterm elections approaching, the voices proclaiming Jewish revolt are in full force. This time, they say Democrats will lose Jewish support because Obama is unduly pressuring Israel. As usual, these arguments are based on arbitrary quotes from the leaders of lobbying organizations or someone’s Aunt Esther. It ignores the actual data reflecting the opinions of rank-and-file American Jews.
The starting point for separating anecdote from fact is to understand that Israel is not a voting priority for American Jews. In surveys that my firm has conducted for J Street in the 2008 and 2010 election cycles, only 8 percent to 10 percent of Jews cite Israel as one of the top two issues determining their vote. In other words, an overwhelming 90 percent of Jews don’t consider Israel as one of their top two issues.
For Jews, Israel is a threshold issue rather than a high priority. That is, candidates must demonstrate they are “good enough” on Israel. However, once they pass this threshold — as Obama, Kerry and Bill Clinton did — Jewish voters move on to consider issues that actually affect their daily lives, just like other voters.

Gerstein concedes that there will likely be a decline in Jewish support for Democratic candidates this year, proportional to the decline of support from other constituencies. Republicans will try to exaggerate the significance of the decline, but politically-alert voters won’t buy it. In terms of the latest poll numbers, Gerstein explains:

Currently, the Jewish vote is where we would expect it. Gallup reported in June that Democrats are getting 62 percent of the Jewish vote (which rises to 69 percent when allocating undecided voters). Last week, Gallup reported that Obama’s job approval with Jews remained 13 points above the national electorate, a margin that has remained consistent throughout his presidency…

As Gerstein concludes, “Clearly, Democrats’ political challenges are not with American Jews.”


Can Threat of GOP Surge in Polls Help Energize Women?

Lisa Mascaro of the L.A. Times Washington, D.C. Bureau has a wake up call for women political activists and all voters who believe more women are needed in congress. Madcaro’s article, “Women in Washington, Your Seats Are at Risk,” lends veracity to the recent Democratic slogan, “You put it in ‘D’ to go forward and ‘R’ for reverse.” As Mascaro explains:

…With this fall’s midterm elections, the number of women serving in Congress could drop for the first time in a generation — a twist on a political season many had dubbed “the year of the woman.”
If large numbers of Democratic incumbents lose in November, as expected, many women could be replaced by men. Female candidates tend to do better in Democratic years, and 2010 is shaping up as a successful year for Republicans.
Women now hold 90 seats in Congress: 69 are Democrats and 21 are Republicans. After the November election, Congress could end up with as many as 10 fewer female members, prognosticators now say, the first backslide in the uninterrupted march of women to Washington since 1978.

An unfavorable reversal of a three decades trend is a sobering thought for advocates of women’s political empowerment. And it’s not as if Republicans have much interest in making up the slack on their side of the aisle, as Mascaro reports:

In fact, just four women are among the GOP’s 46 “Young Guns,” as the party calls its frontline challengers who are considered future leaders.

So much for the “Mama Grizzlies” hype. The Republican Party remains a bastion of male dominance and if they win big in November, the GOP will further diminish the political empowerment of women in Washington.
All of which should serve as a rallying cry for all activists who believe America would be well-served by more women office-holders to (a.) contribute to the DSCC, DCCC and Democratic candidates and (b.) redouble campaign activism on their behalf.


TDS Co-Editor Ruy Teixeira: Public Wants More Regulation of Banks and Business

In his latest ‘Public Opinion Snapshot’ at the Center for American Progress website, TDS Co-Editor Ruy Teixeira presents some numbers deregulation-loving conservatives are not going to like. Says Teixeira:

Conservatives love to interpret the current sour public mood as rejection of the government’s role in the economy. In reality, that public sentiment is primarily traceable to the poor economy and has little to do with an embrace of conservative ideological views on government.
…A recent CNN poll asked the public whether it supported or opposed the new financial regulation reform bill, which it explicitly described as increasing “federal regulation over banks, Wall Street investors, and other financial institutions.” The public said it supported the new bill by a strong 58-39 margin.

Asked if they approve or disapprove of government regulation of business in the same poll, respondents said they approved of government regulation of business by a margin of 55 percent to 45 percent, adds Teixeira.
So much for the myth that a majority of Americans support Republican policies about government regulation of banks and business. As Teixeira puts it, “Conservative claims that the public is embracing their antigovernment ideology should be taken with a grain of salt — in fact, a whole cellar full.”


Beck’s Ego-Trip Not Likely to Affect Midterms

As might be expected The Washington Post is leading the print rags with insightful opinion writing concerning Glenn Beck’s “Restore Honor” rally, a poorly-disguised attempt to exploit the anniversary of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech in service to the wingnut agenda. On Wednesday, King’s son, Martin Luther King III had a widely-read op-ed and today, the Post’s Eugene Robinson leads with “Even Beck Can’t Mar King’s Legacy,” which offers some astute observations, including:

…Glenn Beck has every right to hold his absurdly titled “Restoring Honor” rally on Saturday…But the rest of us have every right to call the event what it is: an exercise in self-aggrandizement on a Napoleonic scale. I half-expect Beck to appear before the crowd in a bicorn hat, with one hand tucked into the front of his jacket.
That Beck is staging his all-about-me event at the very spot where the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. delivered his immortal “I Have a Dream” speech — and on the 47th anniversary of that historic address — is obviously intended to be a provocation. There’s no need to feel provoked, however; the appropriate response is to ignore him. No puffed-up blabbermouth could ever diminish the importance of the 1963 March on Washington or the impact of King’s unforgettable words.

Robinson goes on to expose Beck’s distortion that the Civil Rights Movement was about equal justice, as opposed to “social justice,” and adds,

…Beck’s version of history is flat-out wrong. The full name of the event at which King spoke 47 years ago was the “March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom.” Among its organizers was labor leader A. Philip Randolph, the founder of the Brotherhood of Sleeping Car Porters and a vice president of the AFL-CIO, who gave a speech describing the injustice of “a society in which 6 million black and white people are unemployed and millions more live in poverty.”
…From the beginning, King’s activism and leadership were aimed at securing not just equal justice but equal opportunity as well. When he was assassinated in 1968, King was in the midst of a Poor People’s Campaign aimed at bettering the economic condition of all underprivileged Americans, regardless of race.

Robinson notes that the rally is likely to draw some racists, along with some people with legitimate discontents, whose “concerns deserve to be heard. Instead, their anxieties are exploited by hucksters who see fear and anger as marketing tools.”
No doubt the Republicans are hoping the Beck rally will provide more fodder for their Democrat-bashing. Not too worry, as Robinson concludes,

Saturday night, when the event is done, the Lincoln Memorial will still be the place where King gave one of the most memorable speeches of the 20th century. People who came to the rally in search of answers will still be looking. And Glenn Beck will still be a legend in his own mind.

Beck’s ego-trip may end up fattening his bank account. But it’s not likely to do much to return the keys to the guys who drove the economy into the ditch.


POLITICAL SCIENCE RESEARCH – AUGUST 2010

From Perspectives on Politics

How ACORN Was Framed: Political Controversy and Media Agenda Setting

Peter Dreir and Christopher R. Martin

August 2010

ABSTRACT

Using the news controversy over the community group ACORN, we illustrate the way that the media help set the agenda for public debate and frame the way that debate is shaped. Opinion entrepreneurs (primarily business and conservative groups and individuals, often working through web sites) set the story in motion as early as 2006, the conservative echo chamber orchestrated an anti-ACORN campaign in 2008, the Republican presidential campaign repeated the allegations with a more prominent platform, and the mainstream media reported the allegations without investigating their veracity. As a result, the little-known community organization became the subject of great controversy in the 2008 US presidential campaign, and was recognizable by 82 percent of respondents in a national survey. We analyze 2007-2008 coverage of ACORN by 15 major news media organizations and the narrative frames of their 647 stories during that period. Voter fraud was the dominant story frame, with 55 percent of the stories analyzed using it. We demonstrate that the national news media agenda is easily permeated by a persistent media campaign by opinion entrepreneurs alleging controversy, even when there is little or no truth to the story. Conversely, local news media, working outside of elite national news media sources to verify the most essential facts of the story, were the least likely to latch onto the “voter fraud” bandwagon.


From Political Psychology

Ethnic Minority-Majority Asymmetry in National Attitudes around the World: A Multilevel Analysis

Christian Staerkle, Jim Sidanius, Eva G. T. Green and Ludwig E. Molina

August 2010

ABSTRACT

Using data from the International Social Survey Programme, this research investigated asymmetric attitudes of ethnic minorities and majorities towards their country and explored the impact of human development, ethnic diversity, and social inequality as country-level moderators of national attitudes. In line with the general hypothesis of ethnic asymmetry, we found that ethnic, linguistic, and religious majorities were more identified with the nation and more strongly endorsed nationalist ideology than minorities (H1, 33 countries). Multilevel analyses revealed that this pattern of asymmetry was moderated by country-level characteristics: the difference between minorities and majorities was greatest in ethnically diverse countries and in egalitarian, low inequality contexts. We also observed a larger positive correlation between ethnic subgroup identification and both national identification and nationalism for majorities than for minorities (H2, 20 countries). A stronger overall relationship between ethnic and national identification was observed in countries with a low level of human development. The greatest minority-majority differences in the relationship between ethnic identification and national attitudes were found in egalitarian countries with a strong welfare state tradition.

 

“I’m Not Prejudiced, but . . .”: Compensatory Egalitarianism in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary

Corinne Moss-Racusin, Julie Phelan and Laurie Rudman

August 2010

ABSTRACT

The historic 2008 Democratic presidential primary race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton posed a difficult choice for egalitarian White voters, and many commentators speculated that the election outcome would reflect pitting the effects of racism against sexism (Steinem, 2008). Because self-reported prejudices may be untrustworthy, we used the Implicit Association Test (IAT) to assess White adults’ (1) condemnation of prejudices, and (2) attitudes toward the candidates in relation to voting decisions, as part of an online survey. Results supported the proposed compensatory egalitarianism process, such that Whites’ voting choice was consistent with their implicit candidate preference, but in an effort to remain egalitarian, participants compensated for this preference by automatically condemning prejudice toward the other candidate’s group. Additional findings showed that this process was moderated by participants’ ethnicity and level of prejudice, as expected. Specifically, compensatory egalitarianism occurred primarily among Whites and individuals low in explicit prejudice. Implications for candidate support, aversive racism theory, and implicit compensation processes are discussed.

 

The Affective Tipping Point: Do Motivated Reasoners Ever “Get It”?

David P. Redlawsk, Andrew J. W. Civettini and Karen M. Emmerson

August 2010

ABSTRACT

In order to update candidate evaluations voters must acquire information and determine whether that new information supports or opposes their candidate expectations. Normatively, new negative information about a preferred candidate should result in a downward adjustment of an existing evaluation. However, recent studies show exactly the opposite; voters become more supportive of a preferred candidate in the face of negatively valenced information. Motivated reasoning is advanced as the explanation, arguing that people are psychologically motivated to maintain and support existing evaluations. Yet it seems unlikely that voters do this ad infinitum. To do so would suggest continued motivated reasoning even in the face of extensive disconfirming information. In this study we consider whether motivated reasoning processes can be overcome simply by continuing to encounter information incongruent with expectations. If so, voters must reach a tipping point after which they begin more accurately updating their evaluations. We show experimental evidence that such an affective tipping point does in fact exist. We also show that as this tipping point is reached, anxiety increases, suggesting that the mechanism that generates the tipping point and leads to more accurate updating may be related to the theory of affective intelligence. The existence of a tipping point suggests that voters are not immune to disconfirming information after all, even when initially acting as motivated reasoners.

 

The Implicit and Explicit Effects of Negative Political Campaigns: Is the Source Really Blamed?

Luciana Carraro and Luigi Castelli

August 2010

ABSTRACT

Despite the widespread use of negative campaigns, research has not yet provided unambiguous conclusions about their effects. So far studies, however, have mainly focused on very explicit measures. The main goal of the present work was to explore the effects of different types of negative campaigns on both implicit and explicit attitudes, as well as in relation to two basic dimensions of social perception, namely competence and warmth. Across a series of three studies, we basically showed that not all negative campaigns lead to the same consequences. Specifically, especially personal attacks toward the opposing candidate may backfire at the explicit level. More interestingly, at an implicit level, the reliance on negative messages was associated with more negative spontaneous affective responses toward the source, but also with a spontaneous conformity to such a source. Overall, it appeared that negative messages decreased the perceived warmth of the source while simultaneously increasing the perceived competence. Results are discussed by focusing on the importance of implicit measures in political psychology and on the crucial role of perceived competence.

 

From Political Behavior

Sex and Race: Are Black Candidates More Likely to be Disadvantaged by Sex Scandals?

Adam J. Berinsky, Vincent L. Hutchings, Tali Mendelberg, Lee Shaker and Nicholas A. Valentino

August 2010

ABSTRACT

A growing body of work suggests that exposure to subtle racial cues prompts white voters to penalize black candidates, and that the effects of these cues may influence outcomes indirectly via perceptions of candidate ideology. We test hypotheses related to these ideas using two experiments based on national samples. In one experiment, we manipulated the race of a candidate (Barack Obama vs. John Edwards) accused of sexual impropriety. We found that while both candidates suffered from the accusation, the scandal led respondents to view Obama as more liberal than Edwards, especially among resentful and engaged whites. Second, overall evaluations of Obama declined more sharply than for Edwards. In the other experiment, we manipulated the explicitness of the scandal, and found that implicit cues were more damaging for Obama than explicit ones.

In the Eye of the Beholder? Motivated Reasoning in Disputed Elections Kyle C. Kopko,

Sarah McKinnon Bryner, Jeffrey Budziak, Christopher J. Devine and Steven P. Nawara

August 2010

ABSTRACT

This study uses an experimental design to simulate the ballot counting process during a hand-recount after a disputed election. Applying psychological theories of motivated reasoning to the political process, we find that ballot counters’ party identification conditionally influences their ballot counting decisions. Party identification’s effect on motivated reasoning is greater when ballot counters are given ambiguous, versus specific, instructions for determining voter intent. This study’s findings have major implications for ballot counting procedures throughout the United States and for the use of motivated reasoning in the political science literature.

Masculine Republicans and Feminine Democrats: Gender and Americans’ Explicit and Implicit Images of the Political Parties

Nicholas J. G. Winter

August 2010

ABSTRACT

During the past three decades Americans have come to view the parties increasingly in gendered terms of masculinity and femininity. Utilizing three decades of American National Election Studies data and the results of a cognitive reaction-time experiment, this paper demonstrates empirically that these connections between party images and gender stereotypes have been forged at the explicit level of the traits that Americans associate with each party, and also at the implicit level of unconscious cognitive connections between gender and party stereotypes. These connections between the parties and masculinity and femininity have important implications for citizens’ political cognition and for the study of American political behavior.


Gingrich Too Extreme for Buchanan, Scarborough

It appears that a circular firing squad composed of his fellow Republicans is forming around Newt Gingrich. The GOP’s 2012 front-runner (in some polls) for President is getting slammed right and left by fellow Republicans, including Pat Buchanan. Here’s the video clip J.P. Green flagged in his post below, which is also worth watching for the insightful comments on the controversy by several of the participants.


Democrats: President Obama’s recent speeches provide a coherent Democratic message for the fall. They are clear, serviceable and ready to be put to use.

by James Vega
In the aftermath of the elections of 2000, 2002 and 2004 Dems widely bewailed the superior “message discipline” of the Republicans. The GOP was credited with successfully guiding its members to focus on a small number of clear slogans and themes while Democrats tied themselves in knots.
In consequence, one key theme of a recent strategy meeting about the coming elections between Senate Democrats and senior staff and the Obama White House was that “there will be intense emphasis on keeping all candidates, offices and parties coordinated on the same message”.
Read the entire memo.


A message strategy for combating the “enthusiasm gap” – Theme: This election is not about Washington. It’s about resisting a conservative attack on “people like you”.

by James Vega
In recent weeks the DNC, OFA and other Democratic campaign organizations have refined their message strategy to define the coming election as a stark choice between two vastly different alternative futures rather than a referendum on Obama’s first year and a half in office and to suggest that a wide range of distasteful policies will be pursued if the Republicans win control of the House of Representatives.
This is fine as far as it goes but it does not bring into focus the distinct and uniquely aggressive threat that the militarized and hyper-ideological “take back our country” campaign poses to Democrats across the country.
Read the entire memo.


Watch out Democrats: the exposure of the dishonest manipulation of videos shown on Andrew Breitbart’s websites will not moderate attacks by conservative extremists. It will intensify the search for new and even more aggressive tactics to employ.

by James Vega
In recent days an important discussion has emerged among progressives about the proper strategy for the progressive movement. As Bill Scher, the Online Campaign Manager of the Campaign for America’s Future described it:
Read the entire memo.


Lux: How Dems Can Leverage Real Populism

Probably no term in the political lexicon evokes more confusion that ‘populism,’ which has been carelessly tossed around to describe philosophies ranging from progressive to outright racist demagoguery. Fortunately we have Mike Lux to straighten out the mess and put the term in modern context to describe what it means for progressives and how it can be leveraged to help Democrats win a stable majority. In his HuffPo post “A Modern Progressive Populist Platform,” Lux explains:

With voters angry at the establishment and incumbents in general, and deals in particular, Democrats who are defenders of the established order are working overtime to beat down the idea of winning elections by using scary populism. Using faulty historical analogies, polls with carefully designed questions in order to elicit certain answers, and the specter of far-right anti-intellectualism as reasons not to be populist, they fear what might happen if Democrats actually start listening to real voters and make the changes people were promised in 2008.
The good news is that if the Democrats running for office in this tough, tough year will respond to the anti-establishment anger that is out there and ride it, they can do better than anyone is currently predicting. Of course, if that happened, it would be a very bad thing for corporate Democrats who don’t want anything to change, because it would prove the lie that the only way for Democrats to win is to kow-tow to special interest power and conventional wisdom.

Lux takes writers Matt Bai and Kevin Mattson to task for adding to the confusion about populism, and critiques Mattson’s article in the Aug. 3rd edition of The American Prospect: