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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Women's Vote Counts

Democracy Corps: A guide to the women’s vote

Women will determine the outcome of this election. They are repulsed by Donald Trump, and 63 percent view him unfavorably.

Click here to read.

Trump vs Clinton

Democracy Corps: Key Findings from National Survey

A new national poll from Democracy Corps shows a tightening 3-point presidential race; but this poll reveals no changes to the structure of the race which indicates Clinton can quickly raise her vote and a repudiation of Donald Trump.

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Trans-Pacific Partnership and Stan Greenberg

Democracy Corps: Public anger about corporate power dominant factor in views on trade & TPP

New polling for Public Citizen provides powerful new insights about the public’s views on the trade issue.

Click here to read.

Battleground 2016: New Game

Battleground 2016: new game

Donald Trump’s unpopularity, beliefs, values and leadership qualities are forging a new 2016 battleground for the election of the President and U.S. Senate. Trump and Clinton no longer face symmetric image problems. With 60 percent viewing Trump unfavorably and half of presidential year voters saying they will never vote for him, he is losing Republican support to Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and college educated voters to Clinton and the Democrats. Trump is helping Clinton consolidate Democrats, unmarried women, and minority voters.


Creating a down-ballot Democratic wave

On Friday, Democracy Corps released our most recent national survey showing Hillary Clinton with an 11-point lead over Donald Trump (48 to 37 percent, with 8 percent for the Libertarian). Importantly, it showed the Democrats with an 8-point lead in the named congressional ballot (49 to 41 percent), something we have not seen since June of 2009 in our polls. It is also the first time we have seen the presidential margin exceed the Democrats’ party identification advantage: in this case, 6 points overall and 8 points without independent leaners.

The Daily Strategist

July 29, 2016

Hillary Clinton Accepts Nomination, Makes History, Calls for Investment in Infrastructure, Education, Expanding Social Security

The full text of  Hillary Clinton’s speech to the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, July 28, 2016, follows below.

Thank you! Thank you so much. Thank you. Thank you all so much. Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you all very, very much. Thank you for that amazing welcome. Thank you all for the great convention that we’ve had. And Chelsea, thank you. I am so proud to be your mother and so proud of the woman you’ve become. Thank you for bringing Marc into our family, and Charlotte and Aidan into the world.

And Bill, that conversation we started in the law library 45 years ago, it is still going strong.

You know that conversation has lasted through good times that filled us with joy, and hard times that tested us. And I’ve even gotten a few words in along the way.

On Tuesday night, I was so happy to see that my Explainer-in-Chief is still on the job. I’m also grateful to the rest of my family and the friends of a lifetime. To all of you whose hard work brought us here tonight. And to those of you who joined our campaign this week. Thank you.

What a remarkable week it’s been. We heard the man from Hope, Bill Clinton. And the man of Hope, Barack Obama. America is stronger because of President Obama’s leadership, and I’m better because of his friendship. We heard from our terrific vice president, the one-and-only Joe Biden, who spoke from his big heart about our party’s commitment to working people as only he can do.

And first lady Michelle Obama reminded us that our children are watching, and the president we elect is going to be their president, too. And for those of you out there who are just getting to know Tim Kaine – you’re soon going to understand why the people of Virginia keep promoting him: from city council and mayor, to Governor, and now Senator. And he’ll make our whole country proud as our Vice President.

And, I want to thank Bernie Sanders.

Bernie, your campaign inspired millions of Americans, particularly the young people who threw their hearts and souls into our primary. You’ve put economic and social justice issues front and center, where they belong. And to all of your supporters here and around the country: I want you to know, I’ve heard you.

Your cause is our cause. Our country needs your ideas, energy, and passion. That’s the only way we can turn our progressive platform into real change for America. We wrote it together – now let’s go out there and make it happen together.

Democrats Need To Address Issues Like Terrorism and Crime

After noticing, along with everyone else, that the first two days of the Democratic National Convention were extremely light on discussion of certain issues like terrorism and crime (they did spend a lot of time on the former on Day Three), it occurred to me that perhaps an old vice had returned to the American political scene. So I addressed it at New York:

[T]here is some evidence in both parties that a bad old habit is coming back: the tendency to talk predominantly about issues of most concern to the party base, and where the party’s policy prescriptions are relatively popular, and refuse to talk about anything else.

For many years, Democrats avoided talking about national security partly because they thought they looked and sounded weak on the subject, and partly because they figured if voters were absorbed with “good Democratic issues” like education and health care and wages they’d forget to worry about threats to the country. Republicans had a mirror-image delusion, trying hard to ignore “their” issues to the benefit of “our” issues.

One of the reasons Bill Clinton did well politically is that he refused to play that silly game and talked about crime and national security and, yes, even welfare dependency. You can make a good argument (on welfare policy, anyway) that he made the mistake of adopting conservative policies to address these problems. But he recognized something very simple: When politicians refuse to talk about something voters care about, voters fill in the blank with whatever distorted attributed positions the other side suggests. So when Democrats ignored crime as a “Republican issue” and Republicans accuse them of hating cops and sympathizing with violent criminals, a lot of voters had no real reason to conclude otherwise.

Republican George W. Bush (or his “brain,” Karl Rove) got this basic point, insisting on offering conservative prescriptions to improve education, to cover prescription drug costs for seniors, and to deal with the problem of undocumented workers. He even addressed Social Security, though his desire to “reform” the program and improve its solvency by simply reducing benefits was a little too apparent.

The issues discussed at this year’s Republican convention were remarkably straitened. One of them, climate change, was naturally ignored because most Republicans don’t even believe in it. But big areas of economic policy, education policy, health-care policy, environmental policy, food and nutrition policy, and on and on, were at most paid lip service in Cleveland. And even on issues they did address, they often exhibited a cramped perspective: By refusing to acknowledge the issue of police misconduct toward the minority citizens they are supposed to correct, their silence encouraged the impression that they thought police should be able to do any damn thing they want, and that the odd beaten or murdered African-American John Q. Citizens was just the price to be paid for keeping crime under control. Is there any wonder Republicans continue to struggle with minority voters?

But Democrats are making the same mistake if they minimize discussion of terrorism specifically or national security generally, or of immigration enforcement, or of crime policy. On the racially fraught subject of policing, Republican charges that Democrats don’t give a damn about police or even public safety gain traction they do not deserve from a convention where murdered police officers and their families are rarely mentioned.

Again, refusing to cede ownership of entire issue areas to the other party does not mean accepting their policy prescriptions; indeed, it means denying false choices between, say, strong and proactive policing and the liberties of citizens who ought to be presumed innocent when walking the streets or driving their cars.

Political parties ought to have something to say about any issue voters legitimately care about, if only to show they are listening. And any ideology worth having doesn’t let its acolytes fall silent when an inconvenient topic comes up.

President Obama: ‘There has never been a man or a woman, not me, not Bill, nobody more qualified than Hillary Clinton to serve as President of the United States of America’

The full text of President Barack Obama’s speech to the Democratic National Convention in Cleveland  follows below:

Thank you, everybody. Thank you. I love you back. Hello, America. Hello Democrats.

So, 12 years ago, tonight, I addressed this convention for the very first time. You met my two little girls, Malia and Sasha, now two amazing young women who just fill me with pride. You fell for my brilliant wife and partner, Michelle, who has made me a better father and a better man, who’s gone on to inspire our nation as first lady. And who somehow hasn’t aged a day.

I know, the same cannot be said for me. My girls remind me all the time. Wow, you’ve changed so much, daddy. And then they try to clean it up. Not bad, just more mature. And, and it’s true. I was so young that first time in Boston. And look, I’ll admit it, maybe I was a little nervous. Addressing such a big crowd.

But I was filled with faith. Faith in America. The generous, big-hearted, hopeful country that made my story, that made all of our stories possible. A lot’s happened over the years. And while this nation has been tested by war, and it’s been tested by recession, and all manner of challenges, I stand before you again tonight after almost two terms as your president to tell you I am more optimistic about the future of America than ever before. How could I not be?

After all that we’ve achieved together. After the worst recession in 80 years, we fought our way back. We’ve seen deficits come down, 401ks recover, auto industry set new records, unemployment reach eight-year lows and our businesses create 15 million new jobs. After a century of trying, we declared that health care in America is not a privilege for a few, it is a right for everybody.

Sanders: “Hillary Clinton must become the next president of the United States. The choice is not even close”

The text of Senator Bernie Sanders’s address to the opening night of the Democratic Convention, which follows below, is cross-posted from npr.org.

Good evening. Thank you. Thank you very much. It is an honor…thank you. Thank you very much. It is an honor to be here tonight. Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you.

It is an honor to be here tonight and to be following in the footsteps of my good friend, Elizabeth Warren. And to be here tonight to thank Michelle Obama for her incredible service to our country. She has made all of us proud.

Let me begin by thanking the hundreds of thousands of Americans who actively participated in our campaign as volunteers. Let me thank the two and a half million Americans who helped fund our campaign with an unprecedented 8 million individual campaign contributions. Anyone know what that average contribution was? That’s right – $27. And let me thank the 13 million Americans who voted for the political revolution, giving us the 1,846 pledged delegates here tonight – 46 percent of the total. And delegates: thank you for being here, and thank you for all the work you have done. I look forward to your votes during the roll call on Tuesday tomorrow night.

And let me offer a special thanks to the people of my own state of Vermont who have sustained me and supported me as a mayor, congressman, senator and presidential candidate. And to my family – my wife, Jane, our four kids and seven grandchildren – thank you very much. for your love and hard work on this campaign.

I understand that many people here in this convention hall and around the country are disappointed about the final results of the nominating process. I think it’s fair to say that no one is more disappointed than I am. But to all of our supporters – here and around the country – I hope you take enormous pride in the historical accomplishments we have achieved.