A new SurveyUSA poll of Missouri LV’s conducted Sept.7-9 for KSDK-TV St. Louis and KOMU-TV Columbia shows Bush now leading Kerry by just 2 percentage points, 48-46 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

A new Zogby America poll of nationwide LV’s conducted Sept. 8-9 has Bush at 47 percent and Kerry at 45 percent in a head to head match-up, within a 3.1 percent m.o.e.

Well, those horse race data keep coming in so let’s see what they tell us about the state of the race. Here are the Bush leads in the polls released since the end of the GOP convention. I use Kerry-Bush results and, in the one case where the 2-way race is not available (the Washington Post poll), I estimate a result based on their 3-way race margin and how the 3-way and 2-way races compared in their previous poll.
I use RVs intead of LVs where both are supplied for reasons I have dwelt on extensively. But where only LVs are available I use LVs. In these cases, based on what we know about the relation between LV and RV results this year, the results should actually be better for Bush than if the RV results had been available (though with Zogby and Rasmussen, since they party-weight, it’s hard to know how the two factors (LVs vs. party-weighting) net out).
Zogby, September 8-9 LVs: +2
Rasmussen: September 7-9 LVs: +2
Democracy Corps, September 6-9 LVs: +3
Fox News: September 7-8 LVs: +2
CBS News, September 6-8 RVs: +8
Washington Post, September 6-8 RVs: +4
Gallup, September 3-5 RVs: +1
Conclusion: Bush is ahead but probably not by much. September 6-8 was apparently a good period for him, relative to the immediate post-convention period covered by the Gallup poll, but he appears to be fading a bit based on the pattern of surveys covering slightly later time periods.
As for the idea that Bush has surged into a commanding lead: not in this universe anyway.

In a poll of NC LV’s taken by Survey USA for WBTV-TV Charlotte and WTVD-TV
Raleigh Durham Sept. 6-8, Bush leads Kerry 50-46 percent( moe 4.2 percent ).

A SurveyUSA poll of LV’s in Ohio for WCPO-TV Cincinnatti and WKYC-TV
Cleveland conducted Sept. 6-8 has Bush with 50 percent vs. 47 percent for
Kerry ( moe 3.8 percent ).

A poll of nation-wide LV’s conducted Sept. 6-9 by Democracy Corps has Bush at 50 percent, Kerry at 47 percent with 1 percent for “other.”

A poll of nation-wide RV’s conducted Sept 6-8 by YouGov for the Economist has Bush leading Kerry 46-45 percent, with 1 percent for Nader.

Another nugget from Alan Abramowitz:

If you assume that Democrats, Republicans, and independents in their LV sample voted about the same way as Dems, Reps, and indies in their RV sample (see their “dissecting the vote” analysis on the Gallup website), which was 90-7 Kerry for Dems, 49-46 Kerry for indies, and 90-7 Bush for Reps, in order to have the overall result come out 52-45 Bush there would have to be about a TEN point Republican advantage in party id among LVs. (If you assume 30 percent Dems, 40 percent Reps, and 30 percent indies, for example, with those Bush and Kerry percentages, you end up with almost exactly a 52-45 Bush lead.) Now that is ridiculous. Does anyone really believe that Republicans are going to have a 10 point advantage among 2004 voters?

I sure don’t and you shouldn’t either. In 2000, the Democrats had a 4 point advantage over the Republicans. That advantage, in my view, is likely to remain stable in 2004, though it’s certainly possible that it might diminish some (or increase!). But turn into a 10 point GOP advantage? No way. The fact must be faced: Gallup likely voters look pretty darn unlikely and give a distorted picture of political reality.
Perhaps it’s time for a re-think on this one over at Gallup headquarters.

OK, horse race fans, when last we picked up the story (September 3-5 Gallup poll), Bush had a one point lead on Kerry among RVs.
Today we have three different polls released covering about the same period with three pretty different horse race results.
1. CBS News, polling September 6-8 among RVs, gives Bush an 8 point lead.
2. ABC News/Washington Post, polling September 6-8 among RVs, gives Bush an estimated 4 point lead. Why do I say “estimated”? Because, now that Nader is becoming an ever-less-viable candidate, the WP poll has decided only to ask the three-way horse race question and not the followup for Nader voters that allows you to construct a 2-way race. Makes a lot of sense, right?
Since, in their last poll, the 2 way race knocked 2 points off Bush’s lead, I do the same thing in this poll and estimate that Bush’s 6 point lead in the 3 way race translates into a 4 point lead in the 2-way race.
3. Finally, Fox News, polling September 7-8 among LVs (no RV data available), gives Bush a 2 point lead.
Kinda confusing, huh? Why would September 6-8 be a better period for Bush than September 3-5, right after the convention? And could Fox’s polling period, which does not include September 6, mean they missed Bush’s best day and he was starting to go downhill a bit?
Stay tuned! There’ll be more polls coming at us shortly, I’m sure.

As Alan Abramowitz has pointed out to me in another missive:

Gallup’s new poll in Ohio appears to have the same problem as their latest national poll–there is again a huge discrepancy between their results for registered voters (Bush 48, Kerry 47) and their results for likely voters (Bush 52, Kerry 44). Based on the numbers of registered and likely voters in the Gallup sample, this means that they are projecting that 90 percent of Bush supporters will vote but only 78 percent of Kerry supporters will vote. Again, this seems way out of line with evidence from previous elections and with other polls. In contrast, in Pennsylvania and Washington, Gallup’s results for registered and likely voters are much more similar, and in line with other recent polls.