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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Watch Out for Those Gallup LVs in Ohio

As Alan Abramowitz has pointed out to me in another missive:

Gallup’s new poll in Ohio appears to have the same problem as their latest national poll–there is again a huge discrepancy between their results for registered voters (Bush 48, Kerry 47) and their results for likely voters (Bush 52, Kerry 44). Based on the numbers of registered and likely voters in the Gallup sample, this means that they are projecting that 90 percent of Bush supporters will vote but only 78 percent of Kerry supporters will vote. Again, this seems way out of line with evidence from previous elections and with other polls. In contrast, in Pennsylvania and Washington, Gallup’s results for registered and likely voters are much more similar, and in line with other recent polls.

18 comments on “Watch Out for Those Gallup LVs in Ohio

  1. bt on

    Marcus and Jeff (Jeff, not sure if you were responding in part to my comment): Just would like to clarify. My point was that the National Guard stuff is competing with what K/E are trying to say now. To the extent the National Guard coverage is being driven by 527s K/E cannot directly rein that in even if they would very much like to do so. If they did as you suggested, Marcus–make a public statement expressing their desire or intention to focus for the duration of this campaign on the issues voters are concerned about today–perhaps any 527s, with whom they cannot directly communicate, and other K/E supporters who are pushing more National Guard coverage would get the message and back off. Which of course guarantees nothing in terms of what the media decide to focus on.
    I’m not aware of K/E voluntarily discussing Vietnam era events of late. This may be a situation where K/E’s efforts to get back control of the debate are being hurt by well-meaning pro-Kerry 527 groups and/or others.

  2. gabby hayes on

    Rasmussen polls daily and uses a three day rolling average for his daily numbers. Here is what they show:
    ***The Bush approval and disapproval numbers are exactly where they were before the Republican convention.
    ***The Bush v. Kerry numbers for voters are exactly where they were before the Republican convention.
    Fox Dynamic poll
    Fox reported RVs until after their August 4th poll showed Kerry gaining the lead. Once the RVs showed Bush losing the lead, Fox quit reporting their RV results and switched to the LV distinction. This is akin to discovering that Kerry is 6’3 and Bush is 5’9, so the Fox Pollster backs away until Bush APPEARS to be taller from this angle. Yeah, it is that BAD.
    Fox shows Bush with only a two point lead TODAY, among LVs.
    ***Fox has Bush v. Kerry at two point race among LVs, clearly within the margin of error.

  3. tony on

    And the ABC/Post poll shows the two tied among all voters in the battleground states. How much of what Bush did was to increase his strength in states he was going to win anyway?

  4. tony on

    OK, ABC is out. Taking a count again, for polls held at least in part after the convention, using RV’s when available, LV’s when not, we have:
    CBS Bush +7 (Sept 6-8)
    ABC Bush +6 (Sept 6-8)
    Fox Bush +4% (LV, Sept 7-8)
    Gallup Bush +1% (Sept 3-5)
    ICR Kerry +1% (Sept 1-5)
    There’s the question of what Labor Day is doing to all of this. And of whether the LV list (which favors Bush more) is better than the RV list. But this set has a median of Bush up by 4%. Hardly insurmountable.
    I look forward to Ruy giving us a lot more insight on all of this.
    Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. That’s most likely the election. And the debates.

  5. Ed on

    Logan, I don’t think Inside politics is all that bad. I always found Judy Woodruff pretty fair and Bill Snider usually tilts to the left. Of course I think it is a little to early to say we have a front runner. If two weeks after the convention ALL the polls show a more than 5 point lead, than that could be true. Even then we have the debates. I heard that when Regan Ran against Carter that Carter had a double didget lead going into the debates then after the debates Carter was toast.

  6. Jeff on

    As far as the media declaring Bush the “frontrunner.” I knew this would happen.
    I mean, didn’t we all?
    When Kerry is ahead by 5 or 6% it is a virtual tie.
    When Bush is ahead by 5 or 6% he is the “clear front runner.”
    Truth is, Kerry should embrace his new “underdog status.” Let it be how he connects with people.
    He can claim that, like the people, he is the underdog against corporate interests, et al.
    He then should say, there are more of us then them.
    P.S. I agree that he should stop talking about Vietnam. Christ Almighty. I wish he had never brought up fucking Vietnam.
    Think about the irony. That pitiful country cost us the 1968 and 1972 elections. Imagine if it costs us 2004 as well.
    P.P.S. I’m beginning to think that Kerry is a dipshit.

  7. Allan Bartlett on

    I understand how you can spin maybe one or two polls, but almost every mainstream poll coming out lately has Bush up. ABC and CBS came out today. both have Bush up by seven and nine respectively. Can all these polls be wrong at the moment?

  8. Marcus Lindroos on

    > Just a followup comment. When the Republicans were
    > trying to run Clinton out of town on a rail Carville
    > used to say that the public wants to know what the
    > politicians are going to do about their problems and
    > has little use for politicians who want all the talk to be
    > about themselves and who did what to whom when.
    Precisely why Kerry needs to stop talking about Vietnam already… Sure, he is justifiably proud of his medals, but that’s no substitute for real policies and ideas. If he can present those to the American public (and avoid “Kerrymeandering” by giving simple, clear answers to questions) during the debates, he still has a good chance.
    Fortunately, “Shrub” also has offered little but cliches and tired rhetoric for his political base.

  9. bt on

    Just a followup comment. When the Republicans were trying to run Clinton out of town on a rail Carville used to say that the public wants to know what the politicians are going to do about their problems and has little use for politicians who want all the talk to be about themselves and who did what to whom when. Something along those lines.
    This sort of mindset says: when you come right down to it, our side just has better ideas about what to do to improve the lives of ordinary citizens. The public has for decades agreed. It continues to agree. When we offer our ideas in straightforward, digestible language that frames the choice clearly, we usually win.

  10. Logan on

    Why is Bill Schneider of CNN allowed to lie about the polls on their little Inside Politics right wing biased show? All the legitimate polls show a close race, yet Mr. Schneider claimed, “Well, we can now say that Bush is the clear front runner.” Say what? Just recently Kerry was in the lead, by about the same margins as Bush is supposedly now, yet Mr. S. nor anyone at CNN ever called Kerry the front runner. The Bush crowd and their media mininons are obvioulsy trying to use fake polls to influence a “band waggon” effort to sway voters, which seems really crass and clearly based on fake data.

  11. bt on

    Marcus, likewise I am hoping this campaign will move to, and stay in, the 21st century from this point forward. The National Guard stuff that is being reported is competing with what K/E are trying to get out there. If it’s about the distant past we are way off message. Yes, Bush and his surrogates continue to deceive about the distant past. But they have been both deceitful and wildly incorrect in what they have said to the public on matters of much more pressing concern to the voters.

  12. Marcus Lindroos on

    Not really related to the Subject, but I think Kerry needs to do the smart but high-minded thing by urging _EVERYONE_ to stop talking about the supposed inconsistencies regarding a) “Shrub’s” national guard service in the early 70’s, b) his own Vietnam record. As some pundit pointed out, this discussion will not bring a single U.S. serviceman home from Iraq and nor will it be very helpful when trying to figure out how to shrink the annual $0.5-trillion federal deficit.
    Let’s face it: the likelihood of another four years of “Shrub” will decrease if the election debate is focused on factual issues like the federal economy, jobs, Iraq and the role the current President’s decisions has played in all that. Conversely, an angry mud-slinging debate will only divert attention away from this Administration’s many failures while discouraging independents from voting for anybody. This will make it easier for Karl Rove to win by simply bringing the committed GOP base to the voting booths.

  13. Mike in MD on

    Interesting that Fox News has a poll that shows Kerry doing better than CBS’ poll.
    And to answer some of JDC’s questions, I think Kerry has some ground to make up, but not really a lot. I don’t think Bush holds that “strong” a lead; to me strong indicates a wide margin that has held up for a long time, not a few points gained over the last couple of weeks. I
    If Bush gets PA and FL, then I think he wins. But I personally wouldn’t bet too heavily on him winning Pennsylvania. With the GOP convention just last week, and with all the “Kerry is tanking/can’t do anything right” coverage we’ve been subjected to lately, this may be Bush’s highwater mark (barring external events, of course) and they’re still tied there.

  14. jdc742 on

    Ruy or anyone,
    At this site:
    …the ECV map seems to indicate Bush is holding a strong lead in the state polls and the national map. Aside from the Gallup fallacies you’ve been discussing, are there other fallacies internal to it, or is it accurate that Kerrry has alot of ground to make up? Is Zogby worth following or not?
    If Pennsylvania and Florida break for Bush, is the election over?
    Thank you.


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