John Kerry beat George Bush 44-41 percent of RV viewers of the 2nd presidential debate, with 13 percent undecided in an ABC News Poll. But Kerry beat Bush among self-identified independents 44-34 percent. (The respondents were self-identified 35 percent Democrats, 32 percent Republicans and 29 percent Independents.)
Kerry beat Bush 47-45 percent of RV debate-viewers in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. But Kerry beat Bush among self-identified independents 53-37 percent. (The respondents were self identified 38 percent Republicans, 32 percent Democrats and 30 percent Independents.)

More from Alan Abramowitz.

Here are the results in the 10 battleground states in which polls have
been conducted since the first debate. The number shown is the mean
difference between Bush support and Kerry support in the polls. A
positive number means that Bush was leading and a negative number means
that Kerry was leading. The number of polls is shown in parentheses.
Colorado: 0.0 (1)
Florida: +2.2 (5)
Iowa: +1.0 (2)
Minnesota: -4.0 (2)
New Hampshire: 0.0 (1)
New Mexico: -1.3 (3)
Ohio: -1.0 (1)
Pennsylvania: -5.0 (3)
Washington: -4.0 (2)
Wisconsin: +0.7 (3)
All of these results are based on three-way contests including Ralph
Nader in states where Nader is on the ballot. All of the results are
for likely voters when available or for registered voters when results
for likely voters were not provided. The source for these numbers is
pollingreport.com.

Alan Abramowitz reports that “a look at the polls that have been conducted since the first debate reveals a race that is close to a dead heat in the nation as a whole and in the key battleground states. There have been 14 national polls conducted since the first debate. In those 14 polls, George Bush holds an average lead of just 1.1 points.”

On the eve of the 2nd presidential debate, Senator John Kerry is ahead or in statistical tie with President Bush in all 16 “battleground states,” according to a new poll by Zogby Interactive, conducted 9/30 to 10/5 for the Wall St. Journal.
Kerry LV leads (%): AR 0.2; FL 0.4; IA 6.6; MI 9.7; MN 8.3; NV 1.0; NH 6.6; NM 11.4; OH 0.3; OR 10.1; PA 5.4; WA 9.9; and WI 2.5.
Bush LV leads (%): MO 2.2, TN 0.9 and WV 6.1.
According to the analysis of the Zogby Poll published in the Wall St. Journal, “Mr. Kerry holds leads outside the margin of error in 6 states…None of Mr. Bush’s leads are outside the margin.”

John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 47 percent of nation-wide RV’s on the eve of the second presidential debate, according to an AP-Ipsos Public Affairs Poll conducted 10/4-6. (Kerry leads Bush 50-46 percent among LV’s)
According to AP’s Ron Fournier, “Fewer voters than a month ago believe Bush is the best man to protect the country and fight the war.
“The AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll, completed on the eve of the second presidential debate, charted a reversal from a month ago, when the Republican incumbent had the momentum and a minuscule lead. Since then, bloodshed increased in Iraq, Kerry sharpened his attacks and Bush stumbled in their initial debate.
“Nearly three-fourths of likely voters said they had watched or listened to the first presidential debate last week, according to the poll. Only 8 percent came away with a more favorable view of Bush while 39 percent said they felt better about Kerry.”

Bush ahead by 4% Florida LV’s (Mason-Dixon Poll 10/4-5).
Kerry leads by 2% Florida LV’s (American Research Group Poll 10/2-5).
Kerry, Bush tied at 47% NH LV’s (American Research Group Poll 10/3-5)
Kerry ahead by 3% New Mexico LV’s (Albuquerque Journal Poll 10/1-4)
Kerry, Bush tied at 48% Ohio LV’s(American Research Group Poll 10/4-6)
Kerry leads by 7% PA LV’s (WHYY-TV/Westchester University Poll 10/1-4)
Kerry ahead by 3% PA LV’s(American Research Group Poll 10/2-4)

Leading Democratic pollster and public opinion analyst Stanley Greenberg, Co-founder of Democracy Corps, has made available the following analysis of the early data from last night’s debate.

The only national representative panel survey shows Edwards with a slight edge in the vice-presidential debate among key swing groups in the electorate, though overall Cheney had a slight edge of 40 to 37 percent on who won the debate. Where it matters, Edwards had the edge.
o Among independents, Edwards by 37 to 34 percent.
o Among undecided voters (with only 60 cases), Edwards won by 43 to 25 percent.
o Among battleground states, Edwards had 40 to 38 percent advantage.
That is probably why the presidential race remained tied before and after the debate, though Kerry’s vote rose from 47 to 49 percent.
The debate produced a yawning gender gap, with Cheney winning by 16 points among men (47 to 31 percent) and Edwards winning women by 9 points (43 to 34 percent) — a 25-point gender gap.
Fully 1,000 respondents watched the debate, and completed pre- and post-surveys. Data was collected by Knowledge Networks, a survey research firm that maintains the only nationally representative web-based survey platform.
The other national survey conducted tonight by ABC News had Cheney with an 8-point advantage, but note that the survey gave the Republicans a 7-point advantage in party identification. (They did not report the presidential vote.) That is consistent with a stable race and a likely tie in the debate.
Stan Greenberg

Professor Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, one of the leading academic analysts of American politics, sends along the following update on the polls:
John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied in the race for president both among Americans registered to vote and among likely voters according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush among registered voters, 48% say they would vote for Kerry and 45% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 47% of registered voters say they would vote for Kerry, 44% say they would vote for Bush, and 2% say they would vote for Nader.
Among registered voters considered likely to vote in November, Kerry is at 47% and Bush is at 46% in a two-way ballot. With Nader in the race, Kerry is at 46% and Bush is at 46% among likely voters and Nader is at 2%.
The results presented here are based on 1,005 completed telephone interviews conducted among a nationwide random sample of registered voters. Of the total sample of 1,005 registered voters, 800 are likely voters in November. The interviews were completed October 2 through 4, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. The theoretical margin of error for the sample of likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Bush leads Kerry 48-45 percent of nation-wide LV’s, with 7 percent for other, according to a Fox News Poll conducted by Opinion Dynamics 10/3-4. (margin of error +/-3)

John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 47 percent of nation-wide RV’s in a head-to-head match-up, according to a New York Times/CBS News Poll conducted 10/1-3.