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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Swing State Polls: Kerry Running Strong

Bush ahead by 4% Florida LV’s (Mason-Dixon Poll 10/4-5).
Kerry leads by 2% Florida LV’s (American Research Group Poll 10/2-5).
Kerry, Bush tied at 47% NH LV’s (American Research Group Poll 10/3-5)
Kerry ahead by 3% New Mexico LV’s (Albuquerque Journal Poll 10/1-4)
Kerry, Bush tied at 48% Ohio LV’s(American Research Group Poll 10/4-6)
Kerry leads by 7% PA LV’s (WHYY-TV/Westchester University Poll 10/1-4)
Kerry ahead by 3% PA LV’s(American Research Group Poll 10/2-4)

5 comments on “Swing State Polls: Kerry Running Strong

  1. bruhrabbit on

    ditto on what DC in CA said. I am doing phonebanking to the swing states and planning to do GOTV during the days before the election. I am glad the numbers are looking good- but shouldn’t we be focused on making them even better?

  2. Marcus Lindroos on

    Splendid news! Let’s just hope (and pray-) that the crucial third debate goes as well as the first two did.

    BTW, what kind of “message” do you think Kerry should send to undecided voters in the debate? (I assume there will be some sort of closing statement again). Off the top of my head —
    1) He should promise to be a “uniter” by solemnly pointing out the U.S. is at war and Congress likely will remain in Republican hands. He should hint that this might mean compromises on spending priorities, so that at least the deficits could be reduced. I think many fiscal conservatives and independents would like this.
    2) He might touch the cultural issue (the red wine, fluent french, his windsurfing hobby etc.) and beg culturally conservative voters not to dismiss him out of hand if they agree with his economic policies.
    3) He should point out that his opponent has expressed his unwavering determination to continue the same policies for another four years, if re-elected. In other words, the current policies in the Middle East will continue to be pursued and the handling of the federal economy won’t change. He should ask voters who think they were better off in 2000 to take a chance on him. I think it is a very powerful argument, since “Shrub” and his followers are strugging to portray 2001-04 in a positive light and mostly duck the issue altogether.
    4) He should defuse the extremely silly “global test” smear/scare campaign by explaining that it is merely a common sense term for saving American lives and dollars before going to war. In 1991, the other Gulf states largely reimbursed the U.S. for the cost of Gulf War I. Not so this time.
    5) Debate tactics. In the first debate, he was polite, well informed and surprisingly clear and succinct. More of the same, please! I would also like to see him damn the president with faint praise by first agreeing with the conventional wisdom that “Shrub” is a decent man who does what he thinks is best of the country. Having said that, he should then gently question whether “Shrub” really is qualified for the job, in the light of this Administration’s numerous screw-ups at home as well as abroad. “Grand vision” alone is not enough, he should say — the U.S. now needs competent management to turn Iraq and the federal economy around. It’s a very powerful argument. Saying “Shrub” is an immoral liar won’t work. Saying he simply isn’t up to the task of running the country just might work, since there is ample evidence for it.

  3. DC in CA on

    These are all nothing more than a good start.
    Yes, they are a very good and encouraging start, but let us all do what we can to keep those trend lines going.
    A good start. Now let’s do what we can – canvassing, phone banking, and other GOTV activities – to make for a great finish.

  4. Smooth Jazz on

    Nice Cherrypicking, but here’s a few you forgot. Btw, ARG = Kerry’s Private Poll.
    Marist: Bush 49, Kerry 46, Nader 1
    Reuters/Zogby Tracking Poll: Bush 46, Kerry 44, Nader 2
    Florida: Quinnipiac: Bush 51, Kerry 44
    Pennsylvania: Bush 47% Kerry 47%
    Colorado: Bush 48% Kerry 44%
    Michigan: Bush 46% Kerry 46%
    Virginia: Bush 50% Kerry 44%

  5. dock on

    I think tide is turning. After the debates, GW will finally be exposed as being way over his head as president. (if not already) I’m still one of those who think the race will be a route for Kerry, similar to Reagan over Carter in 1980


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