John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 47 percent of nation-wide RV’s in a head-to-head match-up, according to a New York Times/CBS News Poll conducted 10/1-3.
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Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
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November 30: Biden Has a Relatively Low Popularity Requirement For Beating Trump
Staring at the polls and recent precedents, I offered some blunt thoughts at New York on exactly how popular Biden needs to be in 2024:
There’s abundant evidence that if it were held today, a general election rematch of Joe Biden and Donald Trump would show the 46th president in serious trouble. He’s trailing Trump in national and most battleground-state polls, his job-approval rating is at or below 40 percent, his 2020 electoral base is very shaky, and the public mood, particularly on the economy, is decidedly sour.
The standard response of Biden loyalists to the bad recent polling news is to say “The election is a year away!,” as though public-opinion data this far out is useless. But it’s only useless if Biden turns things around, and while there’s plenty of time for that to happen, there has to be a clear sense of what he needs to secure victory and how to go about meeting those needs. Vox’s Andrew Prokop provides a good summary of possible explanations for Biden’s current position:
“One theory: Biden is blowing it — the polls are a clear warning sign that the president has unique flaws as a candidate, and another Democrat would likely be doing better.
“A second theory: Biden’s facing a tough environment — voters have decided they don’t like the economy or the state of the world, and, fairly or not, he’s taking the brunt of it.
“And a third theory: Biden’s bad numbers will get better — voters aren’t even paying much attention yet, and as the campaign gears up, the president will bounce back.”
The first theory, in my opinion, is irrelevant; Biden isn’t going to change his mind about running for reelection, and it’s simply too late for any other Democrat to push him aside. And the second and third theories really point to the same conclusion: The president is currently too unpopular to win in 2024 and needs to find a way to change the dynamics of a general-election contest with Trump.
There’s not much question that Biden needs to improve his popularity at least modestly. There is only one president in living memory with job-approval ratings anything like Biden’s going into his reelection year who actually won; that would be Harry Truman in 1948, and there’s a reason his successful reelection is regarded as one of the great upsets in American political history. There are others, including Barack Obama, who looked pretty toasty at this point in a first term and still won reelection but who managed to boost their popularity before Election Day (Obama boosted his job-approval rating, per Gallup, from 42 percent at the end of November 2011 to 52 percent when voters went to the polls 11 months later).
Given the current state of partisan polarization, it’s unlikely Biden can get majority job approval next year even with the most fortunate set of circumstances. But the good news for him is that he probably doesn’t have to. Job-approval ratings are crucial indicators in a normal presidential reelection cycle that is basically a referendum on the incumbent’s record. Assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, 2024 will not be a normal reelection cycle for three reasons.
First, this would be the exceedingly rare election matching two candidates with presidential records to defend, making it inherently a comparative election (it has happened only once, in 1888, when President Benjamin Harrison faced former president Grover Cleveland). In some respects (most crucially, perceptions of the economy), the comparison might favor Trump. In many others (e.g., Trump’s two impeachments and insurrectionary actions feeding his current legal peril), the comparison will likely favor Biden.
Second, Trump is universally known and remains one of the most controversial figures in American political history. It’s not as though he will have an opportunity to remold his persona or repudiate words and actions that make him simply unacceptable to very nearly half the electorate. Trump’s favorability ratio (40 percent to 55 percent, per RealClearPolitics polling averages) is identical to Biden’s.
And third, Trump seems determined to double down on the very traits that make him so controversial. His second-term plans are straightforwardly authoritarian, and his rhetoric of dehumanizing and threatening revenge against vast swaths of Americans is getting notably and regularly harsher.
So Biden won’t have to try very hard to make 2024 a comparative — rather than a self-referendum — election. And his strategic goal is simply to make himself more popular than his unpopular opponent while winning at least a draw among the significant number of voters who don’t particularly like either candidate.
This last part won’t be easy. Trump won solidly in both 2016 and 2020 among voters who said they didn’t like either major-party candidate (the saving grace for Biden was that there weren’t that many of them in 2020; there will probably be an awful lot of them next November). So inevitably, the campaign will need to ensure that every persuadable voter has a clear and vivid understanding of Trump’s astounding character flaws and extremist tendencies. What will make this process even trickier is the availability of robust independent and minor-party candidates who could win a lot of voters disgusted by a Biden-Trump rock fight.
So the formula for a Biden reelection is to do everything possible to boost his job-approval ratings up into the mid-40s or so and then go after Trump with all the abundant ammunition the 45th president has provided him. The more popular Biden becomes, the more he can go back to the “normalcy” messaging that worked (albeit narrowly) in 2020.
If the economy goes south or overseas wars spread or another pandemic appears, not even the specter of an unleashed and vengeful authoritarian in the White House will likely save Biden; the same could be true if Uncle Joe suffers a health crisis or public lapses in his powers of communication. But there’s no reason he cannot win reelection with some luck and skill — and with the extraordinary decision of the opposition party to insist on nominating Trump for a third time. Yes, the 45th president has some political strengths of his own, but he would uniquely help Biden overcome the difficulty of leading a profoundly unhappy nation.
going to http://www.pollingreport.com and taking all 13 polls since the debate (excluding the quickies) the results are as follows:
Bush – 47.38
Kerry – 46.31
a 1% difference well within the average 3% margin of error.
Marcus
I believe the point is that the methodology used before did not reflect what are historic trends, and that these numbers coming out reflect where most people thought the election is: namely a tie between Bush and Kerry. Most of the points about weighing I think these new polls are suggesting at least anecdotally maybe true- ie, they as the id’ers return to historic norms- the race is indeed tied.
It’s funny how much someone’s opinion can change only after a few days. On September 26th, a frequent poster to this site advised readers of EDM to disregard the “spin” suggesting that the CBS/NYT poll was biased in favor of Bush. Of course, this was at a time when the CBS/NYT poll indicated that Bush was leading Kerry by 8 points. In fact, his words of caution to us “libs” on September 26th were as follows,
“This CBS poll appears to use a weighting that includes MORE Dems than Reps (See the end of the file), so I’m confused by all the Lib spin that suggests this poll is biased in favor of GWB because it oversamples Reps.
Of course, if the poll does not toe the Lib line that the race is a dead heat, then the poll is to be discarded – Sheeeeesh!!”
Of course, now that the polls (including Gallup and CBS) are reflecting the effects of Bush’s undeniably disasterous debate performance, we are now advised by this same poster above,
“This (CBS) poll has about the same credibility as the forged document story IMO.”
Message: we “libs” should take the CBS poll seriously only if it shows Bush ahead, but if it shows Kerry is tied or leading it must be total crap.
Sheeeesh, indeed.
The recent swing in the polls lends credence to the idea that party ID is indeed fungible. People felt good about Kerry after the debates and so they identified themselves as Democrats (came out of the closet, if you will) to pollsters. Hence we see party ID breakdowns that now more closely reflect 2000 exit polling.
> …their Abu Gharib ambush on GWB…
>
> Posted by Smooth azz at October 5, 2004 05:02 AM
Really? So you think that ABC is more responsible for Abu Grahib than GWB is? Fascinating!
It’s probably more important to watch Friday morning job’s report than Friday night’s debate.
That’s because, in addition to the monthly number, the feds. will issues benchmark revisions for the entire year. History shows they can be very large. The average upward revisions since 1979 has been 308,000.
Robust job growth would speak for itself, which is definitely good news for the president.
On the other hand, a weak report and I think we’re looking at another 2000 squeeker.
How can you or anybody possibly know the actual number of GOP/Dem voters will turn out in November?
technically your right, we can’t know for sure the actual number of gop/dem voters. But you could make the same comment about any age group, any religion, a city vs. suburb, racial groups, ect…… by your logic you can’t do polling.
American Research Group has Kerry up by 3 in new poll today, 47-44.
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/
The polls won’t matter – GASP – is Kerry and Edwards play it right.
I think Edwards AND ESPECIALLY KERRY have to attack attack attack in these next two debates. They can’t cede an inch of ground. If they get Cheney to come off looking half as angry, or mean as Bush that is a win. Kerry should try to drive Bush right over the edge on Friday. I think comparisons to his father, George H.W. Bush may do it. If Bush cracks again on Friday you can stick a fork in him, he will be done.
It has occurred to me, however, that maybe these polls just miss Democrats. In 2000, for example, I thought most had Bush with a consistent lead in the month before the election. I don’t remember a one showing a Gore lead. Since the election turned out to be a tie, one would have expected a distribution of polls on either side — some for Gore, some for Bush. I don’t remember it that way — am I wrong? And does it suggest some systematic, if perhaps small, bias in national polls?
American Research Group has a poll with Kerry up by 3 points in RV’s, whether Nader is in or not. It has showed Kerry consistently doing well, without the fluctuations in other polls. Wonder why?
I would really be interested in some attempt to reconcile the polls, which seem to come in two groups. My impression is that some have shown more volatility and gave a wider advantage to Bush post-RNC. Others have had less volatility all along, but more favorability to Kerry generally. On the other hand, I sort of thought Pew was one of the latter group and they’ve suddenly had Bush in the lead in their last two.
Help!
Has anybody seen the new ARG poll showing a slight Kerry lead? Ruy, how credible is this new poll?
Oops, I forgot the URL for the latest NH poll. Here it is, my apologies:
http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/elect100404.pdf
Marcus,
That’s my point exactly: We don’t really know if the EARLIER or CURRENT ID mix is correct, do we??
For all we know, CBS/NY Times COULD HAVE padded their earlier polls with Reps, to pounce with a Kerry “comeback” story later, or it could be that Dems were more enthusiastic after the debate, and may have been more willing to respond to a pollster.
The fact is: We don’t really know the motive behind them suddenly reversing the party ID to now support Kerry. Given that BOTH entities are run by partisan Dems, CBS complicity in perpetrating a forged document fraud, and the NY Times open disdain & hostility for GWB, I don’t trust them at this point.
Finally, in response to Tony and others, I have no problem recognizing a poll that is favorable to Kerry – And will gladly acknowledge if & when he takes the lead. I’m just skeptical that the race has changed fundamentally from where it was prior to the debate because CBS/NY Times, Newsweak & CNN/Gallup decided to flips party IDs in their samples.
Cloudy,
Today the Columbus dispatch published registration information. In Ohio people do not declare a party when they register, so estimates of the impact are based on whether the location is heavily democratic or republican.
Yesterday alone, 20,000 people registered in Franklin County (Columbus) and 98,000 had previously registered, which brings the total of registered voters to 837,000. I read somewhere else that this is approaching or exceeding census estimates for the county.
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) also received about 20,000 registrations yesterday, and they had received 235,000 voter registratin cards, 100,000 of them estimated to be new voters. The others probably name changes etc. I think if you haven’t voted in four years you have to reregister, so I think many were people who hadn’t been active who want to vote this year. Cleveland is heavily democratic, Columbus is predominately democratic.
In Hamilton County -Cinncinnati -(more Repub leaning), new registrations totaled 64,000 as of Saturday.
Even small, rural counties like mine, are getting record registrations, around 200 a day as of last week.
Typically that would be thought of as a problem in this repub leaning county, but this is no typical year. Some of these new votes include friends of my college aged kids who are voting Kerry.
Spent Saturday walking the neighborhoods with a Dem list that represented swing voters or undecided voters. Finding out if they had decided, trying to talk with undecideds. My impression, not very scientific, of course, but undecideds had already switched to Kerry at about 7-3. A few still undecided, but sometimes I think we ought to let some undecideds alone. I mean why should my well researched, passionate vote be canceled out by someone who doesn’t know who they are going to vote for as they walk in the booth?
More good news, I talked with folks who had decided to vote for Kerry after seeing the debate.
My prediction is that Ohio will go for Kerry.
Yard signs are more for Kerry here (again this is repub territory) and we can’t keep them stocked in the Dem storefront.
Those polls do not pick up on all the new registrations. Took my colleagues out to lunch last week to talk about why I’m voting for Kerry.
It will be all about GOTV now that everyone is registered.
Go Johnny go!
Smooth, are you kidding me? Clarke and Abu Gharib shook faith in Bush considerably. As I recall, Kerry was way ahead all that time. The NG story didn’t have much negative impact, not because memos were faked, but because NOBODY CARES about Bush’s NG service.
BTW – Where’s the outrage over the fake Kerry story from FOX (which was not only posted on its Web site but discussed on FNC) and the “who among us” quote made up by Maureen Dowd? Oops. Doesn’t fit the librul media paradigm. Never mind.
Smooth,
Love how you’re getting into the polling internals now that things aren’t going W’s way…
From the RealClearPolitics site, now using only polls from after the debates, Bush’s lead is down to 1.8% in a 3-way, mostly LV’s (total of 6 polls) and 0.4% in a 2-way, again mostly LV’s, total of 5 polls.
If anyone’s not noticed, SJ will criticize the polls most in favor of Kerry while not addressing the polls in favor of Bush. Good to see Ruy being evenhanded and posting all the polls.
I’ll happily take a 0.4-1.8% Bush lead at this point. If Kerry can keep it at that, the late break should go his way and be enough to put him over the top.
This will probably be my only post today. Lots of stuff on my plate.
Jazz
Several polls show that actually contrary to your propaganda the differential between men and women for Kerry was at a nadir (not only according to CBS, but also Newsweek and other polls).
This poll weights respondents to reflect the percentage of votes in the 2000 election that came from heavily Democratic, heavily Republican, and swing counties. News reports (the best ones in the Times, to be fair) make clear that new voter registration is much heavier in Democratic than in Republican counties. The poll results which are weighted to the 2000 voting pattern will not reflect this.
Also, the poll is weighted for education and not for income. This will fail to correct the bias of low-income Kerry voters being unrepresented in the sample, and may actually increase the bias through the weighting process. (See my comment on the last CBS-Times poll.)
again, another periodic update on the website for helping with voter reg in swing states, including the blockages of registrants:
http://acthere.com/
By the way, the Kerry camp has been allowed by the FEC to start raising money for a fund for any post-election litigation and such
About the “gap gap”. We have two dimensions and TWO kinds of gap gaps now. Before, there were differences in the amount of bounce from the debates, but all the polls agreed the race is now within two % + or -. Now there are two polls that have minimal bounces AND still show a large lead of 5-7 points remaining for Bush. Of the debate bounce, either they see one or two percent increase at most and no more, or well over 5% and nothing in between. Over now eight polls (NY Times, ABC, Pew, Zogby, Gallup, Carville, LA TImes, and NEWSWEEK, there is not only no consensus, the results don’t even spread along any sort of continuum.
If one averaged them all out you would probably get about a four percent bounce net, leaving about a two percent lead to Bush — my guess that’s where the truth is. And Cheney v. Edwards should help at least another notch, though not nearly as much.
I really wonder again if there are any surveys of the new registrations to see the party breakdown and location of the new voters, probably concentrated in swing states such as Ohio, Nevada, and (probably less likely to affect pres campaign, MO). If the news of record registrations is true this could easily decide the election.
A few substantive political points
AGAIN, IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THE FLIPFLOP ISSUE BE CONFRONTED FORCEFULLY AS A “MERE SPIN” AND SOON, POSSIBLY BY EDWARDS IN THE DEBATE. He’ll need to back it up, eg showing the bogusness of the exploitation of the ‘voted for it before voted against it blooper’ as well as the weakness of the claim on NAFTA and the Patriot Act, challenge the media, and secondarily, note that Kerry’s campaign could easily match all the supposed Kerry flipflops at their own website and then do it. “Mere spin” can then at least mitigate the solidified flipflop cliche that has 60% of voters saying Kerry just tells people what they want to hear.
I also hear much talk about the draft, but little attention to the possibility of a draft that doesn’t require MILITARY service, although allowing it to be fulfilled by noncombat military duty (with those signing up for combat duty of course exempt). This could be the deciding issue of the election easily.
Some of the incredible spins on Kerry from the debates, from people in mainstream media and watchdogs who should know better. The ‘global test’ issue cast as a requirement for PRIOR world acceptance by Safire, the $200 billion scored for being too high as there’s some official (VAST UNDER)estimate of the money costs of the war. Those costs don’t cover long term commitments like paying for those injured or disabled over the long term, shifting costs on to state and local governments, eg from National Guard callups, hidden and delayed military costs (even wear and tear), etc etc etc. Kerry if anything UNDERestimates the costs of the wars like everyone including the media does. This is a pet peeve of mine. Pre-emptive war was read by Safire to mean pre-emptive NUCLEAR war, which Kerry never suggested, and numerous observers are completely confused about N Korea, including some media watchdogs. Biden pointed out that the Chinese WANT us to go into bilateral negotiations to SUPPLEMENT, as Kerry suggested, the multilateral approach. Yet these misstatements are not only repeated by the Bush campaign but by highly respected journalists, commentators and watchdogs that people trust. People need to watchdog these.
In the interests of honesty I’ll point out that I am much more dovish than Kerry and way to his Left, just preferring him to Bush. I also didn’t join the many of my colleagues who followed the Ralph ‘if Roe v Wade gets overturned, so what?’ Nader juggernaut in 2000 (even as they supported Hillary against Lazio.
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The flipflop issue needs to be effectively countered soon so the last weeks of the campaign can successfully focus on DEFICIT, JOBS, MEDICARE SCAM, ENVIRONMENT, and MEGATAX CUTS for the RICH in the midst of all this.
I still say the machine agenda is a better predictor of who will be the next prez than all this.