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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

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Democracy Corps Poll: Kerry, Bush in Dead Heat

On the eve of the third presidential debate, John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 48 percent of nation-wide LV’s, according to a new poll by Democracy Corps conducted 10/10-11.


Kerry Leads by 9% in Oregon

Kerry leads Bush 53-44 percent of Oregon LV’s, with 4 percent for others, according to a SurveyUSA Poll for KATU-TV Portland conducted 10/9-11.


Kerry Edges Bush in ABC News, Gallup Post-Debate Polls; Wins Independents Easily

John Kerry beat George Bush 44-41 percent of RV viewers of the 2nd presidential debate, with 13 percent undecided in an ABC News Poll. But Kerry beat Bush among self-identified independents 44-34 percent. (The respondents were self-identified 35 percent Democrats, 32 percent Republicans and 29 percent Independents.)
Kerry beat Bush 47-45 percent of RV debate-viewers in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. But Kerry beat Bush among self-identified independents 53-37 percent. (The respondents were self identified 38 percent Republicans, 32 percent Democrats and 30 percent Independents.)


WSJ/Zogby Poll: Kerry Ahead or Tied in All Battleground States

On the eve of the 2nd presidential debate, Senator John Kerry is ahead or in statistical tie with President Bush in all 16 “battleground states,” according to a new poll by Zogby Interactive, conducted 9/30 to 10/5 for the Wall St. Journal.
Kerry LV leads (%): AR 0.2; FL 0.4; IA 6.6; MI 9.7; MN 8.3; NV 1.0; NH 6.6; NM 11.4; OH 0.3; OR 10.1; PA 5.4; WA 9.9; and WI 2.5.
Bush LV leads (%): MO 2.2, TN 0.9 and WV 6.1.
According to the analysis of the Zogby Poll published in the Wall St. Journal, “Mr. Kerry holds leads outside the margin of error in 6 states…None of Mr. Bush’s leads are outside the margin.”


New AP–Ipsos Poll: Kerry, Bush Tied

John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 47 percent of nation-wide RV’s on the eve of the second presidential debate, according to an AP-Ipsos Public Affairs Poll conducted 10/4-6. (Kerry leads Bush 50-46 percent among LV’s)
According to AP’s Ron Fournier, “Fewer voters than a month ago believe Bush is the best man to protect the country and fight the war.
“The AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll, completed on the eve of the second presidential debate, charted a reversal from a month ago, when the Republican incumbent had the momentum and a minuscule lead. Since then, bloodshed increased in Iraq, Kerry sharpened his attacks and Bush stumbled in their initial debate.
“Nearly three-fourths of likely voters said they had watched or listened to the first presidential debate last week, according to the poll. Only 8 percent came away with a more favorable view of Bush while 39 percent said they felt better about Kerry.”