The CBSNews/Knowledge Networks poll of uncommitted voters taken right after the debate gave 40 percent to Obama, with 26 percent for McCain and 34 percent undecided.
The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll of “debate-watchers” had 54 percent saying that Obama “did the best job” in the debate, with 30 percent for McCain.
In a SurveyUSA poll, California debate-watchers give it to Obama more than 2 to 1 (56 percent Obama, 26 percent McCain, 18 percent ‘no clear winner).
Democracy Corps dial-testing of 50 undecided voters gave Obama 38 percent, with 30 percent for McCain, and 42 percent saying they would vote for Obama if the election were held today, compared with 26 percent for McCain.
A Media Curves poll of 1004 respondents found Obama the winner by a margin of 52-34, with 14 ‘don’t know.’

As the McCain campaign has ramped up its attacks on Barack Obama for his connection with William Ayers, Democrats have debated various ways to fight back.
Here’s a really good approach, written by Chicago Tribune columnist Steve Chapman. The author is not an Obama spokesperson, and even thinks Obama should have condemned Ayers more forcefully than he did. But he very dramatically exposes the shameless hypocrisy and dishonesty behind the McCain attacks. His argument is calm, reasoned and logical enough to convince moderates but is at the same time sharp and powerful enough to use in even the most free-swinging debates with McCain campaign spokespeople.
Here’s how Chapman starts off:

Can a presidential candidate justify a long and friendly relationship with someone who, back in the 1970s, extolled violence and committed crimes in the name of a radical ideology — and who has never shown remorse or admitted error? When the candidate in question is Barack Obama, John McCain says no. But when the candidate in question is John McCain, he’s not so sure.
Obama has been justly criticized for his ties to former Weather Underground member Bill Ayers, who in 1995 hosted a campaign event for Obama and in 2001 gave him a $200 contribution. The two have also served together on the board of a foundation. When their connection became known, McCain minced no words: “I think not only repudiation but an apology for ever having anything to do with an unrepentant terrorist is due the American people.”
What McCain didn’t mention is that he has his own Bill Ayers — in the form of G. Gordon Liddy. Now a conservative radio talk-show host, Liddy spent more than 4 years in prison for his role in the 1972 Watergate burglary. That was just one element of what Liddy did, and proposed to do, in a secret White House effort to subvert the Constitution. Far from repudiating him, McCain has embraced him.

Was Liddy really a dangerous criminal extremist who advocated violence? Here’s how Media Matters for America summarizes his record:

Liddy has acknowledged preparing to kill someone during the Ellsberg break-in “if necessary”; plotting to murder journalist Jack Anderson; plotting with a “gangland figure” to murder Howard Hunt to stop him from cooperating with investigators; plotting to firebomb the Brookings Institution; and plotting to kidnap “leftist guerillas” at the 1972 Republican National Convention (The murder, firebombing, and kidnapping plots were never carried out; the Watergate break-ins were.)
During the 1990s, Liddy reportedly instructed his radio audience on multiple occasions on how to shoot Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms agents…On one show he said “Go for a head shot; they’re going to be wearing bulletproof vests. … Kill the sons of bitches.” On another he recommended shooting ATF agents in the groin.

How close are McCain and Liddy? As Chapman says:

At least as close as Obama and Ayers appear to be. In 1998, Liddy’s home was the site of a McCain fundraiser. Over the years, he has made at least four contributions totaling $5,000 to the senator’s campaigns — including $1,000 this year.
Last November, McCain went on his radio show. Liddy greeted him as “an old friend,” and McCain sounded like one. “I’m proud of you, I’m proud of your family,” he gushed. “It’s always a pleasure for me to come on your program, Gordon, and congratulations on your continued success and adherence to the principles and philosophies that keep our nation great.”

Chapman concludes his column as follows:

Given Liddy’s record, it’s hard to see why McCain would touch him with a 10-foot pole. On the contrary, he should be returning his donations and shunning his show. Yet the senator shows no qualms about associating with Liddy — or celebrating his service to their common cause.
How does McCain explain his howling hypocrisy on the subject? He doesn’t. I made repeated inquiries to his campaign aides, which they refused to acknowledge, much less answer. On this topic, the pilot of the Straight Talk Express would rather stay parked in the garage.
That’s an odd policy for someone who is so forthright about his rival’s responsibility. McCain thinks Obama should apologize for associating with a criminal extremist. To which Obama might reply: After you.

If anything, the truth is that McCain’s connection to Liddy is vastly more direct and troubling than Obama’s serving on a foundation board with Ayers. After all, Obama forcefully repudiated Ayers violence while McCain essentially justifies Liddy. To be sure, there are many other ways to challenge the McCain attacks floating around right now, but this approach has a lot to offer. Dems can post it on web discussions, send it to editors and commentators or use it in face-to-face debates. It offers compelling proof that McCain’s embrace of this line of attack is a cynical desperation move and not a sincere political argument.

New Democracy Corps surveys of 1,000 LV’s nationally and 1,044 LV’s in the battleground states conducted 9/28-30 bring good news for the Obama campaign — “the first real, sustainable lead of the presidential race.”

Obama has taken a 4-point lead nationally, but more important, he leads by 6 points in the presidential battleground states (50 to 44 percent). This lead represents a 10-point swing in the battleground states that Kerry lost by 4 points in 2004 – a comparable swing to what congressional Democrats achieved in 2006.

In the DCorps survey memo, Stan Greenberg and James Carville explain,

…the race has changed in fundamental ways in the last two weeks – and not necessarily for the most obvious reason, the economy and financial crisis. Obama’s gains as a person and leader as well as gains on national security, contrasted with McCain’s negativity, political maneuvering and failure to take the Republicans with him, have changed the dynamic of the race.

In the pivotal battleground states, McCain leads among white men 51-41 percent, while Obama leads among white women by a margin of 50-44 percent. But Dems have a 51-43 lead in generic House races.

A CBS News/Knowledge Networks poll taken immediately following the debate shows uncommitted voters who watched the veep debate believed Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden did the best job by a margin of more than 2 to 1. The poll (PDF here) also found,

Forty-six percent of these uncommitted viewers said Biden won the debate Thursday night, while 21 percent said Palin won. Thirty-three percent thought it was a tie…Palin’s debate performance improved uncommitted voters’ perceptions of her overall, and on a number of specific measures. But uncommitted voters still have doubts about her ability to assume the presidency if necessary and she lags behind Biden on her knowledge and preparedness for the job….Although Palin made some gains on perceptions that she could serve as president if needed, she rose just nine points on that measure after the debate, to 44 percent. In contrast, almost all uncommitted voters think Biden would be an effective president.

While 71 percent of the CBS respondents remained uncommitted after the debate, 18 percent said they would now vote for Obama, while 10 percent said they would vote for McCain.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll of ‘people who watched the vice presidential debate’ indicates that 51 percent of those polled thought Biden did the best job, while 36 percent thought Palin did better. The poll also found,

On the question of the candidates’ qualifications to assume the presidency, 87 percent of those polled said Biden is qualified and 42 percent said Palin is qualified…The candidates sparred over which team would be the better agent of change, and Biden came out on top of that debate, with 53 percent of those polled giving the nod to the Delaware senator while 42 percent said Palin was more likely to bring change.

The CNN poll also indicates Palin made some gains:

…Respondents said the folksy Palin was more likable, scoring 54 percent to Biden’s 36 percent…84 percent of the people polled said Palin did a better job than they expected, while 64 percent said Biden also exceeded expectations.

Both polls show it was a very good night for the Democratic ticket. While both candidates increased their stature with voters and there were no major blunders or gaffes, most respondents clearly saw Biden as the best prepared.

A new WaPo-ABC poll of 1,070 adults conducted 9/ 27-29 indicates that six in 10 voters believe Governor Sarah Palin “lacks the experience to be an effective president, and a third are now less likely to vote for McCain because of her…Fewer than half of voters think she understands “complex issues.” The poll also found,

About half of all voters said they were uncomfortable with the idea of McCain taking office at age 72, and 85 percent of those voters said Palin does not have the requisite experience to be president….A third of independent voters now indicate they are less likely to support McCain because of Palin, compared with 20 percent who said so in an ABC poll a month ago. Palin now repels more independents than she attracts to McCain.

Yet, 51 percent of voters overall view Palin favorably; compared to 57 for Senator Biden. And, “about three-quarters of those surveyed said he understands complex issues, compared with 46 percent who said so of her.”
A new poll from the Pew Research Center, conducted 9/27-29 found that 51% now say Governor Palin is not qualified to become president, with 37 percent saying she is qualified — a reversal of opinion since early September. The poll indicated that 63 percent believe Senator Biden is qualified to serve as president.
A CBS News Poll. conducted Sept. 27-30, 2008 found 32 percent had a favorable opinion of Palin, with 33 percent unfavorable and 25 percent undecided. Last week, Palin had a net positive rating of 8 percent. The poll also indicated that Democratic veep nominee Joe Biden’s had a 34 percent favorable rating, with 19 percent unfavorable.

Tim Fernholz has an insightful American Prospect article on Chris Van Hollen’s DCCC strategy and expected Dem gains in the House of Reps.
Chris Bowers’ latest House forecast at OpenLeft predicts a 13-18 seat pick-up for Dems.
Kos considers Dem prospects for winning a filibuster-proof Senate majority and Electoral-vote.com sees a seven seat pick up for Dems in the U.S. Senate for a total of 58 seats, while electionprojection.com sees Dems with 56 seats in the next congress.
Five-Thirty-Eight‘s Nate Silver takes a look at the bailout vote among reps from swing congressional districts
MyDD‘s Todd Beeton has a great quote from Al Franken, on the importance of a Nov. 5 landslide for a working congressional majority.
James L at Swing State Project reports on “the biggest single-day money dump for the DCCC so far this cycle” — and who gets how much.
The Wall St. Journal‘s Easha Anand reports on Senate GOP candidates attack ads in CO, LA and MS.
Freedom Watch is rolling out the big bucks to support conservatives in House and Senate races. Chris Cillizza has a report on their target races at The Fix.
Put your money where your mouth is at Act Blue: The Online Clearinghouse for Democratic Action

Senator Obama has opened up a narrow lead in recent NC polls, in the wake of growing concerns about the financial meltdown, Sarah Palin’s qualifications and McCain’s performance in the first televised debate.
In a survey of 1,041 NC LV‘s conducted 9/28-29 by Public Policy Polling (m.o.e. 3.0), Obama leads McCain 47-45. In more good news for Dems, Senate candidate Kay Hagan increased her lead over Senator Elizabeth Dole to 46-38, a 3 percent net gain from a week ago.
The poll also shows Obama winning 36 percent of NC’s white voters. PPP believes he can win the state with 35 percent. In addition, Obama increased his edge with NC independents by 6 percent over last week to 48-37.
A Rasmussen poll conducted 9/23 also indicates a narrow lead for Obama in NC, 49-47 percent.
Democrats have registered 194,000 new NC voters since January, compared to 28,500 for Republicans. An estimated 1/3 of all new voters are African Americans. NC voter registration ends 10/10, but voters can register and vote at the same time at “One-Stop Voting Sites” across the state between 10/16 and 11/1.
Charlotte is now the nation’s second largest banking center, having overtaken San Francisco, and employs an estimated 83,000 people in the integrated banking and insurance industry, reports Facing South‘s Chris Kromm. Turmoil at Wachovia and Bank of America, two of Charlotte’s banking giants, has raised the specter of a round of layoffs before the election. B of A alone is expected to layoff as much as 10 percent of it’s workforce in the weeks ahead. Wachovia already slashed 11,000 jobs in the area earlier this year, and more layoffs are likely. NC unemployment was 6.3 percent in August, higher than the national average. The PPP poll indicated that Obama has a 55-38 percent lead over McCain among NC voters whose leading concern is the economy.
There is some concern among NC Dems about the so-called “Bradley effect,” in which voters who are polled tend to overstate their support for African American candidates, as happened when Harvey Gantt lost to Jesse Helms in NC’s 1990 senate race. However, Obama’s election percentage in victory and defeat was close to his poll performance, and Nate Silver has concluded that the Bradley effect is no longer a factor.
The Obama campaign has slated new ad-buys and public appearances by the Dem ticket. NC has 15 electoral votes, tied with GA and NJ in ranking 10th among the 50 states, and ranking 3rd in electoral votes on Chris Bowers’ latest short list of swing states, behind only FL and OH. Lots of interesting discussion about the tarheel state’s political transformation awaits readers at Daily Kos.

Greg Sargent and Eric Kleefeld of TPM ElectionCentral have early poll numbers from CNN and CBS polls, both of which indicate a big win for Obama.’ (CNN wrap-up here)
Brian Montopoli reports that a CBS News and Knowledge Networks poll of 500 uncommitted voters indicates that 39 percent said Obama won the debate, with 24 percent favoring McCain and 37 seeing a tie. In addition, 46 percent of uncommitted voters say their opinion of Obama improved, compared to 32 for McCain.
On ongoing poll of Wall St. Journal readers (over 55,000 thus far) has Obama ahead by 53 to 38 percent as we go to press.
Amy Sullivan of Time’s ‘Swampland’ has a report on Stan Greenberg’s focus group of 45 undecided voters, 38 percent of whom said Obama won the debate, with 27 percent giving the advantage to McCain and 36% saying that neither candidate had a clear win.
Daily Kos has a video clip on Frank Luntz’s focus group of Nevada undecideds, who gave Obama a 27-17 edge.
Looking ahead, Palin goes into Thursday’s debate with lowered expectations, as a result of the Couric and Gibson interviews. Conservatives are very worried, and National Review columnist Kathleen Parker has called on her to step down. Another conservative writer, The American Spectator‘s Phillip Klein, says “Palin is not ready to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.”

Here’s the link

CQPolitics Poll Tracker reports on two new polls, by The Marist Institute and SurveyUSA indicating a strong majority of Americans want tommorrow’s debate to continue on sked. First, from the CQPolitics wrap up of the Marist Poll, conducted 9/22-23, with 5 percent m.o.e:

Voters say by a 53 percent to 42 percent margin that Friday’s presidential debate should go on as planned despite John McCain’s call to cancel it while the nation deals with its financial crisis, according to a Marist Institute poll conducted yesterday…Democrats favor pushing on 80 percent to 15 percent, Republicans side with McCain 76 percent to 21 percent and independents want the debate to proceed by 53 percent to 40 percent.
…Twenty-eight percent of voters say the face-offs will help them make up their minds, while 71 percent said they had already decided their choice. For undecided voters, 87 percent are counting on the debates to help them choose and the same is true for 38 percent of independents.

The SurveyUSA poll, conducted 9/24-25 found:

Three of four Americans say the Friday debate should be held on Friday…Twenty-three percent say the debate should be postponed, up from 10 percent yesterday Wednesday.

The Marist Poll also found that 48 percent of RV’s want the candidates to “talk about economic issues, given the ongoing economic turmoil, as opposed to foreign policy which is the topic of the first debate.” The Poll also indicated that 48 percent expect Obama to win compared to 37 percent for McCain.