We lead with a quartet of posts with special relevance to SC today: First, for those who have been wondering about the SC poll numbers, Mark Blumenthal has “South Carolina: Why So Much Variation?” in his Pollster.com post
Adele M. Stan’s “Can Black Women Save the Liberal Coalition?” mulls over the new leverage African American women have in the primaries in The American Prospect. See also Amy Alexander’s post in The Nation, “Black Women Talk Barack” and Elizabeth G. Hines’s Alternet piece “What Black Women’s Votes Mean for the Presidential Race.”
The Clinton campaign is doing a lot of things right, chief among them is the way they have worked the Hispanic vote. The Politico’s Gebe Martinez “Clinton’s Hispanic Edge” may be the best article yet written about the Latino vote at this juncture in the ’08 campaign.
Time magazine’s Rani Molla probes the factors driving “The Democrats Turnout Triumph” in the primaries, and wonders if the pattern will hold in the general election.
Lest we forget, GOP front-runner John McCain has a messy track record, and The Daily Kos‘s Smintheus has the skinny in his article “McCain still lying after all these years.”

The latest New York Times ‘Bloggingheads’ video features TDS co-editor Ruy Teixeira and The Atlantic.com conservative blogger Ross Douthat discussing Democratic strategy regarding the “blowback on universal health care.”
Also at NYT, Kevin Sack takes an in-depth look at John Edwards’s health care proposal and probes his flexibility on on the issue. The Times also has a convenient gateway link to articles about all the presidential candidates’ health care plans. Yet another way to check out the candidates’ recent statements and positions on health care (and other issues) is through WaPo‘s nifty “issues tracker” tool, which flags relevant articles. Meanwhile, the just-released Pew Research Center report on issue priorities indicates health care reform is increasingly a leading concern of Independents.

Democratic candidates are all in South Carolina on MLK Day prepping for the CNN debate. HRC will start the day in the front ranks of the King Day March and Rally in Columbia and will join Edwards and Obama at the CNN debate in Myrtle Beach. Her husband Bill Clinton will address the MLK Commemorative Service at Dr. King’s Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta. (Interestingly, Huckabee will also attend). Edwards will hold a campaign rally in Columbia before the debate and afterwards will take part in a town hall meeting in Conway. Obama apparently doesn’t have major scheduled events, other than tonight’s debate, according to the New York Times candidate schedule tracker.

Brody Mullins has a WSJ update on union clout in his “Labor Makes Big Comeback In ’08 Races.”
MyDD‘s Jonathan Singer reports on the DCCC’s list of “red to blue” congressional candidates. See also Stuart Rothenberg’s quarterly House Outlook.
Ruy Teixeira has a Century Foundation/Center for American Progress report on “What the Public Really Wants…On Retirement Security.”
Those who want to get up to speed on GOP vote scams should read Steven Rosenfeld’s Alternet article “How to Rig an Election: Confessions of a Republican Operative.” Rosenfeld interviews Allen Raymond, who was reportedly convicted of illegally jamming phone lines to NH Democratic Party offices on election day, 2002.
Even the Washington Times is predicting a Dem pick-up of 3 to 6 U.S. Senate seats.
TPM has Shannon McCaffrey’s AP report “Black voters generations apart“.
Lakoff’s Rockridge Nation takes a perceptive look at “Renewable Energy and the Art of Arguments.”
Pollster.com‘s Margie Omero reports on newly-available cross tabs regarding “The Gender Gap Vanishing Act.”

The Boston Globe‘s Susan Milligan reports on the growing influence of a key group in today’s election — New Hampshire’s young Democrats.
Bob Benenson has a post at CQ Politics highlighting key demographic differences between Iowa and New Hampshire, in terms of what it might mean to the candidates.
L.A. Times reporters Maeve Reston and Doyle McManus address the battle for win the hearts and minds of NH Independents.
Katharine Q. Seelye has a New York Times story on the ad war in NH, with quantitative comparisons of different campaigns and discussing the power of ‘word of mouth’ vs. TV ads.
Justin Wolfers has a Wall St. Journal piece on the “prediction markets” and NH. with a few thoughts on the Granite State’s disproportionate power as a state that provides 1 percent of the delegates to national conventions, but a huge, arguably pivotal, measure of influence.
E. J. Dionne, Jr.’s WaPo op-ed “A Candidacy’s Prose and Cons” provides a perceptive commentary comparing the messaging skills of Obama and Clinton.
Ariel Sabar has a Christian Science Monitor article about the remarkable transformation of NH into a gorgeous shade of blue, led by “the leftward drift of Independents,” no less.

Pollster.com‘s Mark Blumenthal muses soberly, and at length on what the Iowa polls do and do not show.
The Wall St. Journal is getting a little nervous about the ‘populist’ tone of some of the candidates in Iowa.
WSJ’s Amy Chozick reports on the Dems’ surge in rural IA.
In addition to the DMR poll, Open Left‘s Chris Bowers sees increasing signs pointing toward an IA win for Obama
WaPo‘s Dan Balz says the Dems’ contest in IA is a battle over tone, as well as issues and direction.
John Zogby believes that there is a good chance of a three-way tie in the Dem caucuses.
The Politico‘s Roger Simon argues that media buzz may doom 3rd, or even 2nd place candidates.
ABC News Senior National Correspondent Jake Tapper debunks the myth that IA Dems don’t vote for women.
Larry J. Sabato has a bit of a raspberry for the whole Iowa thing.

The final Des Moines Register Poll Democratic results are great news for Barack Obama. The LV percentage results: Obama 32; Clinton 25; Edwards 24; Richardson 6; Biden 4; Dodd 2; Kucinich 1; Gravel less than 1. Part of the good news is that the final DMR poll before the Iowa caucuses has a perfect track record in ranking the order that candidates finished in the caucuses for both 2004 and 2000. In addition, Obama’s margin was double the m.o.e (3.5%) for the poll.
The cautionary note for Obama is that the percentage of first-time Iowa caucus-goers and self-identified Independents is much higher in the ’07 DMR sample. Historically, first-time caucus-goers have not shown up at the caucuses in impressive percentages. As Pollster.com‘s Mark Blumenthal puts it “this Register sample predicts a very different set of caucus participants than in years past” (As always, Blumenthal’s analysis is required reading for poll junkies.) The only thing to add is that there is a bit more of a lag between the final DMR poll and the caucuses this year than in ’04, when the poll was released the day before the caucus.

Adam Nagourney and Jeff Zeleny report on the ground game in their Sunday New York Times article “Candidates Digging for a Deeper Pool of Iowa Voters.” See also Scott Helman’s report “Ground game is key for Democrats,” focusing primarily on the front-runners campaigns in The Boston Globe.
Also in the NYT, Patrick Healy’s piece, “Iowa Saturated by Political Ads” discusses ad spending of the candidates and 527’s and notes that candidates are expected to triple the amount spent in 2004. And Jeff Zeleny also co-authors with David D. Kirkpatrick a round-up of the candidates’ messages on the last weekend before the launch of primary season. See also Todd Beeton’s MyDD post “Romney v. McCain: The New Hampshire Ad Wars.” As this week’s guests on Meet the Press, Huckabee and Obama get the functional equivalent of a huge free ad, a nice edge — if they do well.
A just-released Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll, conducted 12/26-29, reported by John Whitesides has Clinton with 31, Obama 27 and Edwards with 24 percent of likely caucus goers. Biden and Richardson were at 5 percent, while Dodd and Kucinich had 1 percent. On the GOP side, it’s Huckabee 29, Romney 28 and McCain at 11. Thompson, Giuliani and Paul each got 8 percent. Both parties had 6 percent undecided. Clinton had a big lead in percentage of her supporters who described their support as “very strong” (76 percent), compared to 65 percent for Edwards and 56 percent for Obama. However, Edwards was the most popular “second choice” with 30 percent, compared to 25 percent for Obama and 12 percent for Clinton.
Another poll of likely caucus goers, conducted by the American Research Group 12/26-28, has Clinton at 31 and Obama and Edwards at 24, with the rest of the Dems in single digits, according to Alexander Mooney of CNN’s Political Ticker. But the ARG poll has Romney ahead of Huckabee 32-23 percent, with McCain trailing at 11 percent. Mooney reports on yet another poll, a Quad City Times poll conducted by Research 2000 (released Friday), that has Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 27 and Thompson 11 percent. The Quad City poll has Edwards and Obama tied at at 29 percent, with Clinton at 28 percent.

Robert Borosage has one of the better round-ups of the closing Iowa arguments of the Dem presidential front-runners at the HuffPo.
Kathy Kiely’s USA Today article “Democrats focus on getting out supporters,” takes a look at turnout issues and demographic considerations being addressed by Democratic presidential candidates in Iowa in the closing days of the Iowa primary campaign.
No major surprises in the 12/26-7 Lee Enterprises newspapers Iowa poll (sample size 500 ‘likely caucus-goers,” 4.5 m.o.e.), with Obama, Edwards and Clinton still in a stat tie, with Richardson 4th, followed by Biden. Edwards is up 5 since the Lee poll two weeks ago, Clinton is up 4 and Obama is down 4. Huckabee now leads Romney by 7 and Thompson is a distant third.
The Cedar Rapids Courier has Jens Manuel Krogstad’s report on how “Bhutto’s Assassination Jolts Presidential Politics.” The Politico rounds up the presidential candidates’ latest comments on the Bhutto assassination. See also Patrick Healy’s “Crisis Overseas Is Sudden Test for Candidates” in today’s Grey Lady, Peter Walsten’s L.A. Times article “Assassination May Shift Focus of Presidential Race” and E. J. Dionne Jr.’s WaPo op-ed “A Crisis Intrudes in Iowa.”
The Wall St. Journal‘s Amy Chozick reports on the presidential candidates’ efforts to reach Iowa’s 37,000 registered Hispanic voters.

Jason Zengerle reports in TNR’s The Plank that Biden will hold a press conference on the Bhutto assassination
Swing State Project‘s DavidNYC has DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen’s target list of 40 GOP-held House of Reps seats, with “leading” Dem challengers and ’04 and ’06 D-R percentages. Reader comments are also worth a gander.
Progressives considering making a contribution to Ron Paul’s campaign should first read Kos‘s post, “The overt racist in the GOP field” (with more than 700 comments this far). Digby elaborates here.
Larry J. Sabato’s “Senate Sensibilities” (posted 12/13) update on the ’08 Senate campaign has interesting maps, charts and commentary on key Senate races.
Paul Starr, co-editor of The American Prospect, rolls out a post-election “road map for the start of a new America” in his article, “The Democrats’ Strategic Challenge.”