The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to eliminate the right to an abortion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization was the culmination of the Republican Party’s long and powerful partnership with the anti-abortion movement. This is key to understanding the potential impact of the Court’s ruling; now, that alliance will likely drive even more extreme efforts to eliminate abortion access across the country. For the anti-abortion movement, overturning Roe v. Wade was a starter’s gun, not the finish line.
Prior to 1973, Republicans were about as likely as Democrats to support the decriminalization of abortion. But within three years of the Roe v. Wade decision, both leading candidates for the GOP presidential nomination favored a constitutional amendment overturning Roe. There were a lot of reasons for this sudden change of direction, including the GOP’s effort to win over previously Democratic southern conservatives and Catholic voters, and the emergence of abortion bans as a top priority of conservative evangelical leaders. After 1980, the die was cast; while pro-choice politicians and voters lingered in the GOP for some time, the Republican Party as a whole never wavered from its anti-abortion stance.
Yet for decades, the GOP couldn’t deliver. By the time the profoundly irreligious and previously pro-choice Donald Trump won the GOP presidential nomination, simmering resentment toward Republicans for failing to produce a reversal of Roe was close to boiling over; the marriage between party and movement had become loveless. So in a great irony, the unprincipled Trump made a straight transactional offer to get ’er done if the anti-abortion movement supported his candidacy. They took the deal.
As Trump’s Supreme Court appointments cleared the path for the reversal of Roe, GOP governors and state legislators went into an anticipatory frenzy. Twenty-six states passed abortion bans with provisions violating Roe and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, ranging from laws hassling providers to pre-viability abortion bans, like the 15-week Mississippi standard that led to Dobbs. When the ruling came down on Friday, 13 states had “trigger” laws designed to take effect the minute Roe died.
For decades, Republican politics have been about working with anti-abortion constituencies to set the table for the end of abortion rights in America, but now GOP politicians face a very different situation. As far as what they’ll do next, here are three things to keep in mind.
You might think that having won this huge victory in the Supreme Court, Republican anti-abortion activists would give it a rest for a bit. But that isn’t happening.
Having been invited by the Supreme Court to set abortion policy without any inhibitions, the true goal of the anti-abortion movement — a ban on all abortions from the moment of conception, with few if any exceptions — will become an immediate priority for Republican lawmakers. Where there are 15-week bans like Mississippi’s, six-week bans like Georgia’s will likely emerge. Where there are six-week bans, total bans from conception like Louisiana’s and Oklahoma’s will be pursued and likely enacted. Rape and incest exceptions will be challenged. The pressure on GOP lawmakers to grow more radical will go up, not down. This isn’t a political game anymore. Republican lawmakers have been handed the power to force every pregnancy to full term, and their most powerful religious constituencies expect them to use it.
For most anti-abortion activists and their Republican vassals, overturning Roe was never anything more than an interim step toward a total abortion ban. Now they can publicly advance more audacious goals and impose new litmus tests on GOP politicians.
The states-rights and pro-democracy rhetoric that anti-abortion activists routinely deployed to challenge what they deemed federal judicial tyranny over abortion policy will instantly vanish. Republican elected officials and candidates will begin calling for a national abortion ban by congressional statute. It won’t happen so long as there is either a Democratic president or a Senate filibuster, but Republicans with aspirations for high office will line up to pledge to make it happen someday. Mike Pence took the vow minutes after Dobbs was announced:
“Now that Roe v. Wade has been consigned to the ash heap of history, a new arena in the cause of life has emerged, and it is incumbent on all who cherish the sanctity of life to resolve that we will take the defense of the unborn and the support for women in crisis pregnancy centers to every state in America,” Pence told Breitbart News. “Having been given this second chance for Life, we must not rest and must not relent until the sanctity of life is restored to the center of American law in every state in the land.”
Meanwhile, at the state level, Republicans will do whatever they can to interfere with actions by citizens in blue states to aid people in red states. Even though Justice Brett Kavanaugh warned in his Dobbs concurrence that bans on travel to secure an abortion would represent an unconstitutional restriction on interstate commerce, that won’t keep those determined to “save all the babies” from trying to do so by hook or crook.
Most of all, you will hear more and more talk about the goal the GOP first formally embraced in its 1980 platform: an effort to convince the Supreme Court to recognize fetal personhood as a constitutional right, or to pass a fetal personhood constitutional amendment in Congress.
Ice-cold Republican tacticians looking no further than the 2022 midterm elections or the next presidential contest will welcome the new climate as a base-energizing tonic for the troops. After all, the GOP kept its promises to its culture-war wing, and there will be much MAGA/Christian right excitement about acting on the new freedom to impose forced birth. State legislative and gubernatorial elections in November and beyond are going to be lit.
But as it happens, Republicans were already cruising toward major midterm gains thanks to economic worries, Democratic discouragement, the GOP turnout advantage in non-presidential elections, and the historical pattern of midterm losses by the party controlling the White House. All things considered, they want voters to go to the polls thinking about inflation, not abortion; about their grievances with Joe Biden, not their grievances with Samuel Alito.
Democrats have been thinking that Roe’s demise could change the dynamics of the midterms by encouraging high turnout from young voters and suburban women and giving Democratic voters something to feel more passionate about than a bipartisan infrastructure bill. Many Republicans may fear that outcome too, but they are in no position to tell their own base to stop thinking about abortion policy, which in turn means GOP candidates won’t stop talking about it. And that could complicate the anticipated GOP midterm victory, while also changing the landscape going into 2024. Potential Republican presidential candidates could go into a competitive frenzy of anti-abortion extremism, and that’s exactly what Democrats need to hang onto swing voters.
Perhaps the most powerful indication yet of how desperate the President is feeling these days?:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A40563-2004Jun14.html
Link is to story in today’s Washington Post about his effusive praise of Bill Clinton at today’s WH ceremony unveiling the portrait of his predecessor. The last time the man showed any grace was during the 2000 campaign when he wanted voters to think he was a compassionate conservative.
> By the way, one of the huge differences I see
> between Reagan and W.
There are others, and Kerry would be wise to stress them as much as he can.
1) Reagan was only willing to pay lip service to the Christian Right’s agenda whereas “Shrub” wholeheartedly embraces it, as his push for a federal marriage amendment shows.
2) For all the bellicose talk, Reagan’s actual policy vs. the main enemy of the day was actually quite cautious and ended with negotiations with Gorbachev. In contrast, “Shrub’s” decision to invade Iraq was both poorly planned and extremely reckless.
3) Fiscal policy. Although both managed to rack up enormous budget deficits, at least Reagan occasionally raised taxes to help balance the budget. He also tried to honestly simplify the tax code. In contrast, “Shrub” has never seen a tax cut he didn’t like (except for the poor). It doesn’t matter to him what it does to the economy in the long term, or how much it will alienate the opposition. And his fiscal policies and tax cuts have deliberately made the tax code even more complicated, whereas Reagan tried to close loopholes.
4) Personal qualities. I think Reagan was overrated; a dumb, simplistic President for the dumb, simplistic “redneck” half of America. But one has to grudgingly admit his ability to persuade not just Republicans but occasionally even his opponents that he was right. Reagan had style and finesse. At least he looked and sounded like a great president.
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The less said about the current incumbent, the better.
MARCU$
MoE doesn’t explain it at all. If MoE is the explanation for the high approval ratings, then what we’d have is an oversampling of Bush-friendly voters, which is entirely inconsistent with the congressional preference.
A Dem oversample would explain it all, except for that darn Bush approval score. Maybe they have a weird way of asking or — more likely — scoring that question. Come to think of it, they always have an approval number on the high side.
> Does anyone here read the incredibly lame
> Carlos Watson on CNN?
I do — and I am waiting for the next opinion polls with increasing concern… What he says sounds perfectly logical. The bad news from Iraq *has* recently been overshadowed by other events; the economy *has* shown some modest improvement; all the Reagan nostalgia ought to have *some* positive impact on the political standing of those associated with the Reagan/Bush regime.
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The upside is, if “Shrub” is still trailing a few weeks from now, we finally ought to have conclusive proof he will have to fight like crazy to get reelected.
MARCU$
Does anyone here read the incredibly lame Carlos Watson on CNN? He had a column earlier this week where he categorically stated that Bush would “regain his lead in the polls” because of Regan’s death. I think I am about to give up on this guy. He is a former Dem staffer, but I have yet to see him write anything other than the GOP line, and never anything particularly inciteful.
By the way, one of the huge differences I see between Reagan and W. (besides competence) is that I think Reagan genuinely believed that his policies would help all Americans. I disagreed completely, but at least I have to grant him the sincerety of his beliefs. W., on the other hand, has such a myopic view of the world, the only people he cares about, or wants to help, are his privileged, born-again circle of friends.
Mickey Kaus talked to the LAT pollster. Read about it here:
http://slate.msn.com/id/2102054/
I have a hypothesis about the strong preferene for Democrats in the generic Congressional race.
I could easily see many folks, who thought of themselves as Republicans because they were fiscally conservative, becoming disgusted with the current Congress, which has shown itself to be very free spenders. One could easily imagine such people wanting a split government, and sticking with Bush because he’s the “strong leader” and because the support his efforts against terrorism and in Iraq.
Consequently, they might easily decide its time to toss Tom DeLay over the side and put up with Democrats in Congress for a while.
I almost forgot, if you check the trendlines, the last LAT poll had Bush’s job approval at 51% also, which is the lowest recorded by LAT since 911. Also, his job DISAPPROVAL went up to 47% from 44% (still statistically insignificant, but it still hints at a decline of support for the President).
Remember everyone, MOE. It is -+3. So, it could be as low as 48% (which would match the recent Fox News job approval rating for W).
These numbers just don’t go together. A poll with a gigantic Dem Congressional preference should not give Bush his highest approval rating in any poll for four months. A poll that has Kerry leading 51-44 nationwide should not show him trailing among independents, behind in MO and barely even in WI and OH.
In short, these results feel like they were thrown together by someone under the influence. I really await new numbers — from the Times or elsewhere. These are useless.
On the Dem skew issue:
I saw a Bush Campaign official (don’t remeber who) claiwing an over-sampling of Dems and he specifically pointed to the Congressional preference too.
I am curious about this too.
My initial guess about how Kerry could lose among independents and still have a significant lead in the overall numbers is that it might indicate “Republicans” turning into self-identified “Independents.”
AS, I understand your question, but if there were an oversampling of Dems, I seriously doubt Bush’s approval rating would be 51 percent. Plus, the most recent Gallup poll also has Kerry with a lead outside the margin of error. As for the independents, since Kerry has a huge lead among moderate indepdendents, maybe they oversampled conservative independents, because every other poll I’ve seen shows Kerry with a solid lead among indys.
Hmm. Much as I’d love to believe it as word from on high, I don’t like this poll (technically speaking) at all. There’s just no way we have a 19 point lead in congressional preference. That would mean 50 Repub incumbents going down. No way.
More strangely, how is it possible for Kerry to lose Independents and still lead by 7? I don’t see a particularly large erosion in Bush support by R’s, so that’s not the reason. This and the congressional preference result point to a very strong over sampling of Dems.
Ruy: Any thoughts? This can’t be right.
The hagiographic port-mortem Reagan worship we have witnessed this week was never likely to do anything but hurt Bush. No current president could do anything but suffer by comparison to the heroic image being cast by those who choose to remember all of President Reagan’s virtues (and he did have them) and none of his faults. George W. Bush is, at best, a mediocre chief executive. I believe that, even unconsciously, people cannot help but make comparisons between the Olympian Reagan of this week’s remembrances and the sallow, defensive, hunkered-down Bush of the last few months. Rush Limbaugh and other Bush lickspittles have spent the entire week trying to get people to see Bush and Reagan in the same light. To some degree, they have succeeded. The problem is, with the Reagan light burning so rhetorically bright, Bush looks quite dim by comparison.
How come every truth (TRUTH) about GOP and their corrupted, immoral and destructive policies is labeled “anti-American”???
Is it just another trick they learnt from their heirs – Joseph Goebbels and Leni Riefenstahl? I suppose the liberals in Germany back then were “anti-German”? Just as the sane muslims (shia, the liberals) are labeled “anti-islam” by Bin Laden, another right wing conservative.
Well: I hate conservatism and I love America. Get that, “Texas Star” (sign with your own name please, and show some spine)??
Texas Star bite me.
I suppose it is true that Bush is roaming around the White House calling every one who disagrees with him a “traitor” or “unAmerican.”
I agree that Bush has been hurt by all this talk about Reagan. Because people remember Reagan, and they see Bush’s deficiencies.
Poor George. He just can’t catch a break. The GOP were all giddy when the Gipper died. Believing that they were finally in the clear. Now it turns out that it didn’t help them at all.
I can’t wait until Kerry takes over and sends all these neo-con bums to prison.
Prefab Sprout, I can’t believe you said that. Ronald Wilson Reagan was not every bit as corrupt as George Walker Bush. That statement just shows a bias brought on by the liberal media. 🙂
I can’t see how dead Reagan can help Bush and I don’t see why anybody thought dead Reagan might. It would be different if dead Reagan could have been on the stump for Bush, but dead he doesn’t do anything, and dead Reagan wasn’t capable of stumping for Bush these past years. The idea that there was a dead Reagan bounce for Bush in the polls seemed to me to be something of a non sequitur.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, I kept repeating the phrase “dead Reagan” because I just like writing “dead Reagan”.
Could you even invent a more typical troll than Texas Star?
Isn’t it sad that you radical morons can’t stop your carping and nasty, pathetic anti-American rhetoric for a week to honor a past President!
Your ignorance is truly showing through, but then again, we expected as much.
Blow your horns, clap your hands, and scream because you are definitely outnumbered?
Why don’t you go and hear another Al Gore rant!
Reagan was an enemy of the poor and helpless, and of the environment and the middle class. In that respect GWB is worth the comparison. However RR was nowhere near as corrupt and stupid as our current pres.
I think that W is suffering from what I refer to as the Benson Effect. Some swing voters are thinking about Bush and saying to themselves “I voted for Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan was a President of mine. You sir, are no Ronald Reagan.”
Of course, even Reagan wasn’t all that this week’s fanfare makes him out to be. By comparison, this hurts Bush even more. Instead of a Reagan Death Bounce, Bush is getting a Reagan Death Punch!
Drive safely, everybody!