A lot of people who weren’t alive to witness the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago are wondering if it’s legendary chaos. I evaluated that possibility at New York:
When the Democratic National Committee chose Chicago as the site of the party’s 2024 national convention a year ago, no one knew incumbent presidential nominee Joe Biden would become the target of major antiwar demonstrations. The fateful events of October 7 were nearly six months away, and Biden had yet to formally announce his candidacy for reelection. So there was no reason to anticipate comparisons to the riotous 1968 Democratic Convention, when images of police clashing with anti–Vietnam War protesters in the Windy City were broadcast into millions of homes. Indeed, a year ago, a more likely analog to 2024 might have been the last Democratic convention in Chicago in 1996; that event was an upbeat vehicle for Bill Clinton’s successful reelection campaign.
Instead, thanks to intense controversy over Israel’s lethal operations in Gaza and widespread global protests aimed partly at Israel’s allies and sponsors in Washington, plans are well underway for demonstrations in Chicago during the August 19 to 22 confab. Organizers say they expect as many as 30,000 protesters to gather outside Chicago’s United Center during the convention. As in the past, a key issue is how close the protests get to the actual convention. Obviously, demonstrators want delegates to hear their voices and the media to amplify their message. And police, Chicago officials, and Democratic Party leaders want protests to occur as far away from the convention as possible. How well these divergent interests are met will determine whether there is anything like the kind of clashes that dominated Chicago ’68.
There are, however, some big differences in the context surrounding the two conventions. Here’s why the odds of a 2024 convention showdown rivaling 1968 are actually fairly low.
Horrific as the ongoing events in Gaza undoubtedly are, and with all due consideration of the U.S. role in backing and supplying Israel now and in the past, the Vietnam War was a more viscerally immediate crisis for both the protesters who descended on Chicago that summer and the Americans watching the spectacle on TV. There were over a half-million American troops deployed in Vietnam in 1968, and nearly 300,000 young men were drafted into the Army and Marines that year. Many of the protesters at the convention were protesting their own or family members’ future personal involvement in the war, or an escape overseas beyond the Selective Service System’s reach (an estimated 125,000 Americans fled to Canada during the Vietnam War, and how to deal with them upon repatriation became a major political issue for years).
Even from a purely humanitarian and altruistic point of view, Vietnamese military and civilian casualties ran into the millions during the period of U.S. involvement. It wasn’t common to call what was happening “genocide,” but there’s no question the images emanating from the war (which spilled over catastrophically into Laos and especially Cambodia) were deeply disturbing to the consciences of vast numbers of Americans.
Perhaps a better analogy for the Gaza protests than those of the Vietnam era might be the extensive protests during the late 1970s and 1980s over apartheid in South Africa (a regime that enjoyed explicit and implicit backing from multiple U.S. administrations) and in favor of a freeze in development and deployment of nuclear weapons. These were significant protest movements, but still paled next to the organized opposition to the Vietnam War.
One reason the 1968 Chicago protests created such an indelible image is that the conflict outside on the streets was reflected in conflict inside the convention venue. For one thing, 1968 nominee Hubert Humphrey had not quelled formal opposition to his selection when the convention opened. He never entered or won a single primary. One opponent who did, Eugene McCarthy, was still battling for the nomination in Chicago. Another, Robert F. Kennedy, had been assassinated two months earlier (1972 presidential nominee George McGovern was the caretaker for Kennedy delegates at the 1968 convention). There was a highly emotional platform fight over Vietnam policy during the convention itself; when a “peace plank” was defeated, New York delegates led protesters singing “We Shall Overcome.” Once violence broke out on the streets, it did not pass notice among the delegates, some of whom had been attacked by police trying to enter the hall. At one point, police actually accosted and removed a TV reporter from the convention for some alleged breach in decorum.
By contrast, no matter what is going on outside the United Center, the 2024 Democratic convention is going to be totally wired for Joe Biden, with nearly all the delegates attending pledged to him and chosen by his campaign. Even aside from the lack of formal opposition to Biden, conventions since 1968 have become progressively less spontaneous and more controlled by the nominee and the party that nominee directs (indeed, the chaos in Chicago in 1968 encouraged that trend, along with near-universal use of primaries to award delegates, making conventions vastly less deliberative). While there may be some internal conflict on the platform language related to Gaza, it will very definitely be resolved long before the convention and far away from cameras.
Another significant difference between then and now is that convention delegates and Democratic elected officials generally will enter the convention acutely concerned about giving aid and comfort to the Republican nominee, the much-hated, much-feared Donald Trump. Yes, many Democrats hated and feared Richard Nixon in 1968, but Democrats were just separated by four years from a massive presidential landslide and mostly did not reckon how much Nixon would be able to straddle the Vietnam issue and benefit from Democratic divisions. That’s unlikely to be the case in August of 2024.
Chicago mayor Richard J. Daley was a major figure in the 1968 explosion in his city. He championed and defended his police department’s confrontational tactics during the convention. At one point, when Senator Abraham Ribicoff referred from the podium to “gestapo tactics in the streets of Chicago,” Daley leaped up and shouted at him with cameras trained on his furious face as he clearly repeated an obscene and antisemitic response to the Jewish politician from Connecticut. Beyond his conduct on that occasion, “Boss” Daley was the epitome of the old-school Irish American machine politician and from a different planet culturally than the protesters at the convention.
Current Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson, who was born the year of Daley’s death, is a Black progressive and labor activist who is still fresh from his narrow 2023 mayoral runoff victory over the candidate backed by both the Democratic Establishment and police unions. While he is surely wary of the damage anti-Israel and anti-Biden protests can do to the city’s image if they turn violent, Johnson is not without ties to protesters. He broke a tie in the Chicago City Council to ensure passage of a Gaza cease-fire resolution earlier this year. His negotiating skills will be tested by the maneuvering already underway with protest groups and the Democratic Party, but he’s not going to be the sort of implacable foe the 1968 protesters encountered.
The 1968 Democratic convention was from a bygone era of gavel-to-gavel coverage by the three broadcast-television networks that then dominated the media landscape and the living rooms of the country. When they were being bludgeoned by the Chicago police, protesters began chanting, “The whole world is watching,” which wasn’t much of an exaggeration. Today’s media coverage of major-party political conventions is extremely limited and (like coverage of other events) fragmented. If violence breaks out this time in Chicago, it will get a lot of attention, albeit much of it bent to the optics of the various media outlets covering it. But the sense in 1968 that the whole nation was watching in horror as an unprecedented event rolled out in real time will likely never be recovered.
Perhaps the most powerful indication yet of how desperate the President is feeling these days?:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A40563-2004Jun14.html
Link is to story in today’s Washington Post about his effusive praise of Bill Clinton at today’s WH ceremony unveiling the portrait of his predecessor. The last time the man showed any grace was during the 2000 campaign when he wanted voters to think he was a compassionate conservative.
> By the way, one of the huge differences I see
> between Reagan and W.
There are others, and Kerry would be wise to stress them as much as he can.
1) Reagan was only willing to pay lip service to the Christian Right’s agenda whereas “Shrub” wholeheartedly embraces it, as his push for a federal marriage amendment shows.
2) For all the bellicose talk, Reagan’s actual policy vs. the main enemy of the day was actually quite cautious and ended with negotiations with Gorbachev. In contrast, “Shrub’s” decision to invade Iraq was both poorly planned and extremely reckless.
3) Fiscal policy. Although both managed to rack up enormous budget deficits, at least Reagan occasionally raised taxes to help balance the budget. He also tried to honestly simplify the tax code. In contrast, “Shrub” has never seen a tax cut he didn’t like (except for the poor). It doesn’t matter to him what it does to the economy in the long term, or how much it will alienate the opposition. And his fiscal policies and tax cuts have deliberately made the tax code even more complicated, whereas Reagan tried to close loopholes.
4) Personal qualities. I think Reagan was overrated; a dumb, simplistic President for the dumb, simplistic “redneck” half of America. But one has to grudgingly admit his ability to persuade not just Republicans but occasionally even his opponents that he was right. Reagan had style and finesse. At least he looked and sounded like a great president.
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The less said about the current incumbent, the better.
MARCU$
MoE doesn’t explain it at all. If MoE is the explanation for the high approval ratings, then what we’d have is an oversampling of Bush-friendly voters, which is entirely inconsistent with the congressional preference.
A Dem oversample would explain it all, except for that darn Bush approval score. Maybe they have a weird way of asking or — more likely — scoring that question. Come to think of it, they always have an approval number on the high side.
> Does anyone here read the incredibly lame
> Carlos Watson on CNN?
I do — and I am waiting for the next opinion polls with increasing concern… What he says sounds perfectly logical. The bad news from Iraq *has* recently been overshadowed by other events; the economy *has* shown some modest improvement; all the Reagan nostalgia ought to have *some* positive impact on the political standing of those associated with the Reagan/Bush regime.
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The upside is, if “Shrub” is still trailing a few weeks from now, we finally ought to have conclusive proof he will have to fight like crazy to get reelected.
MARCU$
Does anyone here read the incredibly lame Carlos Watson on CNN? He had a column earlier this week where he categorically stated that Bush would “regain his lead in the polls” because of Regan’s death. I think I am about to give up on this guy. He is a former Dem staffer, but I have yet to see him write anything other than the GOP line, and never anything particularly inciteful.
By the way, one of the huge differences I see between Reagan and W. (besides competence) is that I think Reagan genuinely believed that his policies would help all Americans. I disagreed completely, but at least I have to grant him the sincerety of his beliefs. W., on the other hand, has such a myopic view of the world, the only people he cares about, or wants to help, are his privileged, born-again circle of friends.
Mickey Kaus talked to the LAT pollster. Read about it here:
http://slate.msn.com/id/2102054/
I have a hypothesis about the strong preferene for Democrats in the generic Congressional race.
I could easily see many folks, who thought of themselves as Republicans because they were fiscally conservative, becoming disgusted with the current Congress, which has shown itself to be very free spenders. One could easily imagine such people wanting a split government, and sticking with Bush because he’s the “strong leader” and because the support his efforts against terrorism and in Iraq.
Consequently, they might easily decide its time to toss Tom DeLay over the side and put up with Democrats in Congress for a while.
I almost forgot, if you check the trendlines, the last LAT poll had Bush’s job approval at 51% also, which is the lowest recorded by LAT since 911. Also, his job DISAPPROVAL went up to 47% from 44% (still statistically insignificant, but it still hints at a decline of support for the President).
Remember everyone, MOE. It is -+3. So, it could be as low as 48% (which would match the recent Fox News job approval rating for W).
These numbers just don’t go together. A poll with a gigantic Dem Congressional preference should not give Bush his highest approval rating in any poll for four months. A poll that has Kerry leading 51-44 nationwide should not show him trailing among independents, behind in MO and barely even in WI and OH.
In short, these results feel like they were thrown together by someone under the influence. I really await new numbers — from the Times or elsewhere. These are useless.
On the Dem skew issue:
I saw a Bush Campaign official (don’t remeber who) claiwing an over-sampling of Dems and he specifically pointed to the Congressional preference too.
I am curious about this too.
My initial guess about how Kerry could lose among independents and still have a significant lead in the overall numbers is that it might indicate “Republicans” turning into self-identified “Independents.”
AS, I understand your question, but if there were an oversampling of Dems, I seriously doubt Bush’s approval rating would be 51 percent. Plus, the most recent Gallup poll also has Kerry with a lead outside the margin of error. As for the independents, since Kerry has a huge lead among moderate indepdendents, maybe they oversampled conservative independents, because every other poll I’ve seen shows Kerry with a solid lead among indys.
Hmm. Much as I’d love to believe it as word from on high, I don’t like this poll (technically speaking) at all. There’s just no way we have a 19 point lead in congressional preference. That would mean 50 Repub incumbents going down. No way.
More strangely, how is it possible for Kerry to lose Independents and still lead by 7? I don’t see a particularly large erosion in Bush support by R’s, so that’s not the reason. This and the congressional preference result point to a very strong over sampling of Dems.
Ruy: Any thoughts? This can’t be right.
The hagiographic port-mortem Reagan worship we have witnessed this week was never likely to do anything but hurt Bush. No current president could do anything but suffer by comparison to the heroic image being cast by those who choose to remember all of President Reagan’s virtues (and he did have them) and none of his faults. George W. Bush is, at best, a mediocre chief executive. I believe that, even unconsciously, people cannot help but make comparisons between the Olympian Reagan of this week’s remembrances and the sallow, defensive, hunkered-down Bush of the last few months. Rush Limbaugh and other Bush lickspittles have spent the entire week trying to get people to see Bush and Reagan in the same light. To some degree, they have succeeded. The problem is, with the Reagan light burning so rhetorically bright, Bush looks quite dim by comparison.
How come every truth (TRUTH) about GOP and their corrupted, immoral and destructive policies is labeled “anti-American”???
Is it just another trick they learnt from their heirs – Joseph Goebbels and Leni Riefenstahl? I suppose the liberals in Germany back then were “anti-German”? Just as the sane muslims (shia, the liberals) are labeled “anti-islam” by Bin Laden, another right wing conservative.
Well: I hate conservatism and I love America. Get that, “Texas Star” (sign with your own name please, and show some spine)??
Texas Star bite me.
I suppose it is true that Bush is roaming around the White House calling every one who disagrees with him a “traitor” or “unAmerican.”
I agree that Bush has been hurt by all this talk about Reagan. Because people remember Reagan, and they see Bush’s deficiencies.
Poor George. He just can’t catch a break. The GOP were all giddy when the Gipper died. Believing that they were finally in the clear. Now it turns out that it didn’t help them at all.
I can’t wait until Kerry takes over and sends all these neo-con bums to prison.
Prefab Sprout, I can’t believe you said that. Ronald Wilson Reagan was not every bit as corrupt as George Walker Bush. That statement just shows a bias brought on by the liberal media. 🙂
I can’t see how dead Reagan can help Bush and I don’t see why anybody thought dead Reagan might. It would be different if dead Reagan could have been on the stump for Bush, but dead he doesn’t do anything, and dead Reagan wasn’t capable of stumping for Bush these past years. The idea that there was a dead Reagan bounce for Bush in the polls seemed to me to be something of a non sequitur.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, I kept repeating the phrase “dead Reagan” because I just like writing “dead Reagan”.
Could you even invent a more typical troll than Texas Star?
Isn’t it sad that you radical morons can’t stop your carping and nasty, pathetic anti-American rhetoric for a week to honor a past President!
Your ignorance is truly showing through, but then again, we expected as much.
Blow your horns, clap your hands, and scream because you are definitely outnumbered?
Why don’t you go and hear another Al Gore rant!
Reagan was an enemy of the poor and helpless, and of the environment and the middle class. In that respect GWB is worth the comparison. However RR was nowhere near as corrupt and stupid as our current pres.
I think that W is suffering from what I refer to as the Benson Effect. Some swing voters are thinking about Bush and saying to themselves “I voted for Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan was a President of mine. You sir, are no Ronald Reagan.”
Of course, even Reagan wasn’t all that this week’s fanfare makes him out to be. By comparison, this hurts Bush even more. Instead of a Reagan Death Bounce, Bush is getting a Reagan Death Punch!
Drive safely, everybody!