Don’t look now, but it’s already time for the DNC and the states to figure out the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar, so I wrote an overview at New York:
The first 2028 presidential primaries are just two years away. And for the first time since 2016, both parties are expected to have serious competition for their nominations. While Vice-President J.D. Vance is likely to enter the cycle as a formidable front-runner for the GOP nod, recent history suggests there will be lots of other candidates. After all, Donald Trump drew 12 challengers in 2024. On the Democratic side, there is no one like Vance (or Hillary Clinton going into 2016 or Joe Biden going into 2020) who is likely to become the solid front-runner from the get-go, though Californians Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris lead all of the way too early polls.
But 2028 horse-race speculation really starts with the track itself, as the calendar for state contests still isn’t set. What some observers call the presidential-nominating “system” isn’t something the national parties control. In the case of primaries utilizing state-financed election machinery, state laws govern the timing and procedures. Caucuses (still abundant on the Republican side and rarer among Democrats) are usually run by state parties. National parties can vitally influence the calendar via carrots (bonus delegates at the national convention) or sticks (loss of delegates) and try to create “windows” for different kinds of states to hold their nominating contests to space things out and make the initial contests competitive and representative. But it’s sometimes hit or miss.
Until quite recently, the two parties tended to move in sync on such calendar and map decisions. But Democrats have exhibited a lot more interest in ensuring that the “early states” — the ones that kick off the nominating process and often determine the outcome — are representative of the party and the country as a whole and give candidates something like a level playing field. Prior to 2008, both parties agreed to do away with the traditional duopoly, in which the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary came first, by allowing early contests representing other regions (Nevada and South Carolina). And both parties tolerated the consolidation of other states seeking influence into a somewhat later “Super Tuesday” cluster of contests. But in 2024 Democrats tossed Iowa out of the early-state window altogether and placed South Carolina first (widely interpreted as Joe Biden’s thank-you to the Palmetto State for its crucial role in saving his campaign in 2020 after poor performances in other early states), with Nevada and New Hampshire voting the same day soon thereafter. Republicans stuck with the same old calendar with Trump more or less nailing down the nomination after Iowa and New Hampshire.
For 2028, Republicans will likely stand pat while Democrats reshuffle the deck (the 2024 calendar was explicitly a one-time-only proposition). The Democratic National Committee has set a January 16 deadline for states to apply for early-state status. And as the New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher explains, there is uncertainty about the identity of the early states and particularly their order:
“The debate has only just begun. But early whisper campaigns about the weaknesses of the various options already offer a revealing window into some of the party’s racial, regional and rural-urban divides, according to interviews with more than a dozen state party chairs, D.N.C. members and others involved in the selection process.
“Nevada is too far to travel. New Hampshire is too entitled and too white. South Carolina is too Republican. Iowa is also too white — and its time has passed.
“Why not a top battleground? Michigan entered the early window in 2024, but critics see it as too likely to bring attention to the party’s fractures over Israel. North Carolina or Georgia would need Republicans to change their election laws.”
Nevada and New Hampshire have been most aggressive about demanding a spot at the beginning of the calendar, and both will likely remain in the early-state window, representing their regions. The DNC could push South Carolina aside in favor of regional rivals Georgia or North Carolina. Michigan is close to a lock for an early midwestern primary, but its size, cost, and sizable Muslim population (which will press candidates on their attitude towards Israel’s recent conduct) would probably make it a dubious choice to go first. Recently excluded Iowa (already suspect because it’s very white and trending Republican, then bounced decisively after its caucus reporting system melted down in 2020) could stage a “beauty contest” that will attract candidates and media even if it doesn’t award delegates.
Even as the early-state drama unwinds, the rest of the Democratic nomination calendar is morphing as well. As many as 14 states are currently scheduled to hold contests on Super Tuesday, March 7. And a 15th state, New York, may soon join the parade. Before it’s all nailed down (likely just after the 2026 midterms), decisions on the calendar will begin to influence candidate strategies and vice versa. Some western candidates (e.g., Gavin Newsom or Ruben Gallego) could be heavily invested in Nevada, while Black proto-candidates like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Wes Moore might pursue a southern primary. Progressive favorites like AOC or Ro Khanna may have their own favorite launching pads, while self-identified centrists like Josh Shapiro or Pete Buttigieg might have others. Having a home state in the early going is at best a mixed blessing: Losing your home-state primary is a candidate-killer, and winning it doesn’t prove a lot. And it’s also worth remembering that self-financed candidates like J.B. Pritzker may need less of a runway to stage a nationally viable campaign.
So sketching out the tracks for all those 2028 horses, particularly among Democrats, is a bit of a game of three-dimensional chess. We won’t know how well they’ll run here or there until it’s all over.
Perhaps the most powerful indication yet of how desperate the President is feeling these days?:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A40563-2004Jun14.html
Link is to story in today’s Washington Post about his effusive praise of Bill Clinton at today’s WH ceremony unveiling the portrait of his predecessor. The last time the man showed any grace was during the 2000 campaign when he wanted voters to think he was a compassionate conservative.
> By the way, one of the huge differences I see
> between Reagan and W.
There are others, and Kerry would be wise to stress them as much as he can.
1) Reagan was only willing to pay lip service to the Christian Right’s agenda whereas “Shrub” wholeheartedly embraces it, as his push for a federal marriage amendment shows.
2) For all the bellicose talk, Reagan’s actual policy vs. the main enemy of the day was actually quite cautious and ended with negotiations with Gorbachev. In contrast, “Shrub’s” decision to invade Iraq was both poorly planned and extremely reckless.
3) Fiscal policy. Although both managed to rack up enormous budget deficits, at least Reagan occasionally raised taxes to help balance the budget. He also tried to honestly simplify the tax code. In contrast, “Shrub” has never seen a tax cut he didn’t like (except for the poor). It doesn’t matter to him what it does to the economy in the long term, or how much it will alienate the opposition. And his fiscal policies and tax cuts have deliberately made the tax code even more complicated, whereas Reagan tried to close loopholes.
4) Personal qualities. I think Reagan was overrated; a dumb, simplistic President for the dumb, simplistic “redneck” half of America. But one has to grudgingly admit his ability to persuade not just Republicans but occasionally even his opponents that he was right. Reagan had style and finesse. At least he looked and sounded like a great president.
—
The less said about the current incumbent, the better.
MARCU$
MoE doesn’t explain it at all. If MoE is the explanation for the high approval ratings, then what we’d have is an oversampling of Bush-friendly voters, which is entirely inconsistent with the congressional preference.
A Dem oversample would explain it all, except for that darn Bush approval score. Maybe they have a weird way of asking or — more likely — scoring that question. Come to think of it, they always have an approval number on the high side.
> Does anyone here read the incredibly lame
> Carlos Watson on CNN?
I do — and I am waiting for the next opinion polls with increasing concern… What he says sounds perfectly logical. The bad news from Iraq *has* recently been overshadowed by other events; the economy *has* shown some modest improvement; all the Reagan nostalgia ought to have *some* positive impact on the political standing of those associated with the Reagan/Bush regime.
—
The upside is, if “Shrub” is still trailing a few weeks from now, we finally ought to have conclusive proof he will have to fight like crazy to get reelected.
MARCU$
Does anyone here read the incredibly lame Carlos Watson on CNN? He had a column earlier this week where he categorically stated that Bush would “regain his lead in the polls” because of Regan’s death. I think I am about to give up on this guy. He is a former Dem staffer, but I have yet to see him write anything other than the GOP line, and never anything particularly inciteful.
By the way, one of the huge differences I see between Reagan and W. (besides competence) is that I think Reagan genuinely believed that his policies would help all Americans. I disagreed completely, but at least I have to grant him the sincerety of his beliefs. W., on the other hand, has such a myopic view of the world, the only people he cares about, or wants to help, are his privileged, born-again circle of friends.
Mickey Kaus talked to the LAT pollster. Read about it here:
http://slate.msn.com/id/2102054/
I have a hypothesis about the strong preferene for Democrats in the generic Congressional race.
I could easily see many folks, who thought of themselves as Republicans because they were fiscally conservative, becoming disgusted with the current Congress, which has shown itself to be very free spenders. One could easily imagine such people wanting a split government, and sticking with Bush because he’s the “strong leader” and because the support his efforts against terrorism and in Iraq.
Consequently, they might easily decide its time to toss Tom DeLay over the side and put up with Democrats in Congress for a while.
I almost forgot, if you check the trendlines, the last LAT poll had Bush’s job approval at 51% also, which is the lowest recorded by LAT since 911. Also, his job DISAPPROVAL went up to 47% from 44% (still statistically insignificant, but it still hints at a decline of support for the President).
Remember everyone, MOE. It is -+3. So, it could be as low as 48% (which would match the recent Fox News job approval rating for W).
These numbers just don’t go together. A poll with a gigantic Dem Congressional preference should not give Bush his highest approval rating in any poll for four months. A poll that has Kerry leading 51-44 nationwide should not show him trailing among independents, behind in MO and barely even in WI and OH.
In short, these results feel like they were thrown together by someone under the influence. I really await new numbers — from the Times or elsewhere. These are useless.
On the Dem skew issue:
I saw a Bush Campaign official (don’t remeber who) claiwing an over-sampling of Dems and he specifically pointed to the Congressional preference too.
I am curious about this too.
My initial guess about how Kerry could lose among independents and still have a significant lead in the overall numbers is that it might indicate “Republicans” turning into self-identified “Independents.”
AS, I understand your question, but if there were an oversampling of Dems, I seriously doubt Bush’s approval rating would be 51 percent. Plus, the most recent Gallup poll also has Kerry with a lead outside the margin of error. As for the independents, since Kerry has a huge lead among moderate indepdendents, maybe they oversampled conservative independents, because every other poll I’ve seen shows Kerry with a solid lead among indys.
Hmm. Much as I’d love to believe it as word from on high, I don’t like this poll (technically speaking) at all. There’s just no way we have a 19 point lead in congressional preference. That would mean 50 Repub incumbents going down. No way.
More strangely, how is it possible for Kerry to lose Independents and still lead by 7? I don’t see a particularly large erosion in Bush support by R’s, so that’s not the reason. This and the congressional preference result point to a very strong over sampling of Dems.
Ruy: Any thoughts? This can’t be right.
The hagiographic port-mortem Reagan worship we have witnessed this week was never likely to do anything but hurt Bush. No current president could do anything but suffer by comparison to the heroic image being cast by those who choose to remember all of President Reagan’s virtues (and he did have them) and none of his faults. George W. Bush is, at best, a mediocre chief executive. I believe that, even unconsciously, people cannot help but make comparisons between the Olympian Reagan of this week’s remembrances and the sallow, defensive, hunkered-down Bush of the last few months. Rush Limbaugh and other Bush lickspittles have spent the entire week trying to get people to see Bush and Reagan in the same light. To some degree, they have succeeded. The problem is, with the Reagan light burning so rhetorically bright, Bush looks quite dim by comparison.
How come every truth (TRUTH) about GOP and their corrupted, immoral and destructive policies is labeled “anti-American”???
Is it just another trick they learnt from their heirs – Joseph Goebbels and Leni Riefenstahl? I suppose the liberals in Germany back then were “anti-German”? Just as the sane muslims (shia, the liberals) are labeled “anti-islam” by Bin Laden, another right wing conservative.
Well: I hate conservatism and I love America. Get that, “Texas Star” (sign with your own name please, and show some spine)??
Texas Star bite me.
I suppose it is true that Bush is roaming around the White House calling every one who disagrees with him a “traitor” or “unAmerican.”
I agree that Bush has been hurt by all this talk about Reagan. Because people remember Reagan, and they see Bush’s deficiencies.
Poor George. He just can’t catch a break. The GOP were all giddy when the Gipper died. Believing that they were finally in the clear. Now it turns out that it didn’t help them at all.
I can’t wait until Kerry takes over and sends all these neo-con bums to prison.
Prefab Sprout, I can’t believe you said that. Ronald Wilson Reagan was not every bit as corrupt as George Walker Bush. That statement just shows a bias brought on by the liberal media. 🙂
I can’t see how dead Reagan can help Bush and I don’t see why anybody thought dead Reagan might. It would be different if dead Reagan could have been on the stump for Bush, but dead he doesn’t do anything, and dead Reagan wasn’t capable of stumping for Bush these past years. The idea that there was a dead Reagan bounce for Bush in the polls seemed to me to be something of a non sequitur.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, I kept repeating the phrase “dead Reagan” because I just like writing “dead Reagan”.
Could you even invent a more typical troll than Texas Star?
Isn’t it sad that you radical morons can’t stop your carping and nasty, pathetic anti-American rhetoric for a week to honor a past President!
Your ignorance is truly showing through, but then again, we expected as much.
Blow your horns, clap your hands, and scream because you are definitely outnumbered?
Why don’t you go and hear another Al Gore rant!
Reagan was an enemy of the poor and helpless, and of the environment and the middle class. In that respect GWB is worth the comparison. However RR was nowhere near as corrupt and stupid as our current pres.
I think that W is suffering from what I refer to as the Benson Effect. Some swing voters are thinking about Bush and saying to themselves “I voted for Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan was a President of mine. You sir, are no Ronald Reagan.”
Of course, even Reagan wasn’t all that this week’s fanfare makes him out to be. By comparison, this hurts Bush even more. Instead of a Reagan Death Bounce, Bush is getting a Reagan Death Punch!
Drive safely, everybody!