For a while there, the independent ticket of ex-Democrats Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan seemed to be taking crucial votes away from Democrat Joe Biden, at least as indicated by comparing three-way and five-way (with Cornel West and Jill Stein) polls to head-to-head matchups of the incumbent and Donald Trump. Now, even as Biden has all but erased his polling deficit against Trump, he’s getting some more good news in surveys that include other candidates.
Two recent major national polls show Biden running better in a five-way than a two-way race. According to NBC News, Biden moves from two points down to two points up when the non-major-party candidates are included. In the latest Marist poll, Biden leads Trump by three points head-to-head and by five points in a five-way race. Since left-bent candidates West and Stein are pulling 5 percent in the former poll and 4 percent in the latter (presumably taking very few votes from Trump), you have to figure Kennedy is beginning to cut into the MAGA vote to an extent that should get Team Trump’s attention. And it has, NBC News reports:
“Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he’s confident that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will pull more votes away from President Joe Biden than from him — a net win for the Republican’s candidacy.
“’He is Crooked Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, not mine,’Trump wrote on Truth Social late last month. ‘I love that he is running!’
“Behind closed doors, however, Trump is less sure. A Republican who was in the room with Trump this year as he reviewed polling said Trump was unsure how Kennedy would affect the race, asking the other people on hand whether or not Kennedy was actually good for his candidacy.”
Politico notes that Kennedy is drawing higher favorability numbers from Republican voters than from Democratic ones, which could indicate a higher ceiling for RFJ Jr. among Trump defectors. And it’s generally assumed from his past performances that there is a lower ceiling on Trump’s support than on Biden’s; he needs to be able to win with significantly less than a majority of the popular vote, as one Republican told Politico:
“’If the Trump campaign doesn’t see this as a concern, then they’re delusional,’ Republican consultant Alice Stewart said. ‘They should be looking at this from the standpoint that they can’t afford to lose any voters — and certainly not to a third-party candidate that shares some of [Trump’s] policy ideas.’”
One likely reason that Kennedy could be appealing to Republicans is the residual effect from the positive attention he received from conservative media when he was running against Biden in the Democratic primaries; his identification with anti-vaccine conspiracy theories also resonates more positively on the right side of the political spectrum than the left. So it’s in the interest of Team Trump to begin telling the former president’s sympathizers that RFK Jr. is actually a lefty, and that started happening recently, as the New York Times reported: “Mr. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, pointed in particular to Mr. Kennedy’s views on climate change and the environment, writing on his social media site that Mr. Kennedy was more ‘radical Left’ than Mr. Biden.”
The idea, of course, is not only to discourage potential Trump voters from drifting toward the independent candidate, but to encourage potential Biden voters to consider a Kennedy vote.
If Kennedy continues to draw votes from both Biden and Trump, each of their campaigns will need to make a strategic decision about how to deal with him: Do you ignore him and count on the usual fade in support afflicting non-major-party presidential candidates as Election Day nears, or do you attack him as too far left (if you’re Trump) or too far right (if you’re Biden) and try to make him a handicap to your major-party opponent? The more aggressive approach has become common among Democrats seeking to intervene in Republican primaries (or in the recent case of the California Senate race, a nonpartisan top-two primary) by loudly attacking candidates they’d prefer to face in the general election, encouraging Republicans to flock to the supposed menace to progressivism. This kind of tactic — if deployed with some serious dollars — could have an effect on Kennedy’s base of support.
Certainly Trump seems to be considering it. With his usual practice of saying the quiet part out loud, Trump opined: “If I were a Democrat, I’d vote for RFK Jr. every single time over Biden, because he’s frankly more in line with Democrats.”
Trying to minimize losses to Kennedy and maximize opposite-party votes for Kennedy could become a routine practice down the stretch. Where and by whom this strategy is pursued will depend in part on where RFK Jr. is ultimately on the ballot. Right now he has nailed down ballot access in just two states, Utah and Michigan. CBS News reports the Kennedy-Shanahan ticket is close to securing a spot on the November ballot in a number of other states:
“Kennedy’s campaign says it has completed signature gathering in seven other states in addition to Utah and Michigan — Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nebraska and Iowa.
“The super PAC supporting Kennedy, American Values 2024, says it has collected enough signatures in Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina.”
Coping with Kennedy could become a game of three-dimensional chess between the Biden and Trump campaigns. But if it begins to look like RFK Jr. has become an existential threat to Democrats or to Republicans, you can bet they’ll go medieval on him without even a moment’s hesitation.
I think independents voted for Bush because they believed the propaganda that he would be a real conservative and not expand the government. During the debates, he said he was against nation-building. Both turned out to be lies. It is a switch to hear that the Democrats are for fiscal responsibility while the Republicans spend like “drunken sailors.” And its a switch for the Republican party to be taking us into limited war adventures.
We are headed in the wrong direction – away from what the founders wanted for this country and towards socialism. The only difference in the two parties is the flavor. Government tells us we’re obese and need to go on a diet? That’s hypocrisy. We are supposed to be a Republic of very limited government. Independents are looking at Kerry. But can he bring back the jobs lost due to China PMFN or NAFTA? No more than Bush can. So we’re stuck between two choices – bad and worse. Independents want a strong third party but we’re not getting one.
Well that makes sense. You have to make sure the consumers are solvent enough to continually consume or things go south real fast.
What’s wrong with spending? Under the label “spending” lives are saved, schools are financed, the military is kept equipped, health care is provided. There is nothing wrong with spending, as long as it’s efficient and motivated. To spend you’ll have to tax. This is common sense.
I don’t but into all these ideologically motivated (rich people who want’s to keep their inherited wealth) lies about taxes and government spending. Noone else should.
I’ve worked in the private sector for 20 years and boy, talk about inefficient spending… all image, no content. More money on propaganda (advertising), less on product quality. Unfortunately this is often the truth about free markets.
(This is not to say that taxes can be negative, for example when they stifle growth and entrepreneurial efforts – however this is not so much about the levels of taxation as who you tax. I’m all for lesser taxes – for people with low
incomes)
Give me a “tax and spend” liberal who at least pays for what he spends rather than a Republican who maxes out his credit card like a drunken bum in a liquor store.
Fiscal conservatism fiscal conservatism fiscal conservatism. Nyah!
Tim with a capital “T”: Why get on my case when the public perception of Democrats is “tax and spend”? You didn’t tell me anything I didn’t already know, but if you read what I wrote, you would see I was talking about public perception. Reagan tripled the national debt while spouting off about “tax and spend Democrats.” And he made the charge stick even though it was false. That perception has been worked and reworked since FDR.
As a loyal republican,I must say that Bush has been horrible about limiting the growth in government spending.It is an institutional problem IMO.The democrats are no better on spending and I would argue that they are worse.Electing Kerry is just re-arranging the deck chairs on the titanic.We are not under taxed in the US and especially out here in California.
Tim, I believe you posted to the wrong site. You probably want “Free Republic”.
fiscal conservative?!….. Clinton was just lucky in his timing – sitting on the top of a cycle. I just don’t trust Kerry. Too many constituents make up dem party – so much of the base is blindly for a democrat (minorities for example) Then to justify their selection, they sieze on the hate bush wagon
Dean.. the Dem’s have been out in front on the fiscal responsibility issue since Clinton. Furthermore, Bush is backed into a colossal corner on this issue. He’s racked up historical deficits that dwarf even Reagan’s record. There’s absolutely no way that Bush can turn the tables on Kerry on this front.. if Robert Rubin has anything to do with it.
The issue of fiscal responsibility is an important one to me. As a young person, I view deficits as essentially future taxes on me. It is a burden on our government and our economy that will only materialize many years from now.. when those politicians responsible are retired or dead. My generation will be left with higher taxes and a government that is a drag on future growth in the economy. It is a legacy that will shame both Repug’s and Dem’s.
At the same time.. I wouldn’t put it past Bush to try and seize this issue. Nothing is past this admin. I think the release of the torture memos is evidence that the WH hopes that people aren’t paying attention to the details.. that they just see the headlines.
Go to this link to see coverage of Kerry’s proposals for fiscal responsibility..
http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/clips/news_2004_0408a.html
Opinion on Bush has soured because of the lack of job creation. That is not likely to become a positive for Mr. Bush in time for election.
Why do we call it “fiscal conservatism”??? Conservatism should not figure in any positive statement whatsoever. Fiscal responsibility is the word to use! Please
As I look at the article, I am struck by the passage regarding Bush’s ability to turn his numbers around because of his hard-line conservatism. I think we need to look at what must be done if he does take a different tactic in order to turn those numbers around. Suppose he begins to play the fiscal conservative (fiscal responsibility is NOT a mark of his conservatism). On that front, Democrats remain, because of perception but not reality, vulnerable. It is helpful if the Democratic Party got out in front of fiscal conservatism right now, to prevent a move in that direction from Bush. There are other areas in which the party needs to get out in front to prevent Bush from stealing the center. Bush has already attempted to steal Kerry’s position on Iraq and make it his own by calling for more international involvement. The only thing preventing Bush from really stealing that position is that the international community despises Bush. Even so, he did score a coup in the way of perception by getting his four bogus UN resolutions passed. Only the rush of failures in Iraq prevented him from fully capitalizing on that.
Paul,
Bush has been mixing the optimism ads with the ‘war president’ ads in Ohio. The negative ads about Kerry stopped a couple months back. But I haven’t seen too many Bush ads lately. Maybe he’s holding back his money, or running his ads in other states.
Kerry has been running a health care spot and another one where he talks a little bit about why he wants to be president. It’s not really very optimistic, though, IMHO.
MoveOn.org has been running many ads as well, probably more than either Bush or Kerry. Guess they have all the money! I haven’t seen any GOP advocacy group (is that the correct term?) ads, but I’m in Columbus and that doesn’t mean they aren’t running in Cincy or Cleveland.
I was visiting my mother in Pennsylvania this week-end and caught some of the campaign ads (we dont’ get them here in Massachusetts). Bush’s ad was focused on his optimism regarding the economy. Is this a significant change in focus from being “the war president?” Or has he mixed in this type of ad all along? I would love to hear from anyone in a swing state.
“asshat.” you must be a fark.com reader.
I think that if W had to deal with the same press attitude that Clinton did, you would be seeing more than half the Republicans voting for Kerry.
I really don’t want a close win for Kerry. The Republicans have been shown more than willing to consider any such executive “illegitimate” and further willing to use any extra-constitutional means to unseat them. Can just the independent vote deliver a decisive win?
Not all of us independents are chickens. Until recently, I had the luxury of being able to vote like it was the NFL draft – go for best athelete, not considering the position (yes that seems like loser language to me too).
However, I used to be able to be able to vote for the best person for the job, whether they were democrats, republicans, greens, libertarians, or whatever.
Because I live in Washington State, I no longer currently have the option of voting for whomever I want. That sucks, but I can also sign the initiative which will restore the order I grew up with.
Initiatives are like any other tool which is capable of harming its owner: it’s good when the blade is closed; watch out, otherwise.
This is one of the few initiatives I am willing to sign thanks to Tim “asshat” Eyeman, the Satan worshipping liar and “anti-tax” apocolyte. No, I’m not bitter.