December 12: What Do Trump’s Latino Gains Mean for Democrats?
Amid all the conflicting takes on how Donald Trump won the presidency after losing it in 2020, there’s a strong consensus that gains among Latino voters mattered a great deal. I examined this CW at New York:
Definite judgements about how the 2024 presidential election turned out should await voter-file based data that won’t be available for some time. But it’s pretty clear one of the biggest and most counter-intuitive shifts from 2020 was Donald Trump’s gains among Latino voters. Yes, there’s a lot of controversy over the exact size of that shift. Edison Research’s exit polls (which have drawn considerable criticism in the past for allegedly poor Latino voter samples) showed Kamala Harris winning Latinos by a spare 51 to 46 percent margin, while Edison’s major competitor, the Associated Press VoteCast, showed Harris’s margin at a somewhat more robust 55 to 43 percent. Other estimates range up to the 62 to 37 percent win claimed for Harris in the American Electorate Voter Poll.
But most takes showed sizable Republican gains from 2020, and for that matter, Trump did measurably better among Latinos in 2020 than in 2016 (Pew’s validated voter studies showed Trump winning 28 percent in 2016 and 38 percent in 2020). As Equis Research puts it, “this looks and sounds like a realignment.” And while close elections lend themselves to exaggerated focus on specific voter groups, the size and potential future magnitude of the Latino vote make it a natural source of deep concern for Democrats and optimism for Republicans. A New York Times analysis of the startling losses in vote share by Democrats in urban core areas in 2024 concluded that the most consistent pattern was significant Latino populations, which also showed major Republican gains in non-urban areas as well.
To state the obvious, it’s surprising that a politician so associated with nativist rhetoric and policies as Donald Trump is setting records for support in what has traditionally been a Democratic “base” constituency. Is this a trend that would have occurred without Trump leading the GOP, and if so, could it actually intensify once he’s left office for good?
It’s important to understand that this isn’t the first time a pro-GOP Latino “wave” seemed to be developing. While there was immense controversy over the exact numbers (in part because of uniquely flawed exit polls in that particular year), George W. Bush appears to have won about 40 percent of this vote, beating Ronald Reagan’s earlier record of 37 percent in his 1984 reelection landslide. According to the more reliable exit polls in subsequent elections, the GOP share of the Latino vote dropped to 31 percent in 2008 and then to 27 percent in 2012. Some reasons for this reversal of the trend that appeared in 2004 weren’t that hard to discern: the Great Recession that appeared late in Bush’s second term hit Latino households really hard, even as Republicans retreated rapidly from Bush’s support for comprehensive immigration reform (by 2012, Republican nominee Mitt Romney was promoting policies to make life so unpleasant for undocumented immigrants that they would “self-deport”).
But it’s possible that what we are seeing now is the resumption of a slow drift towards the GOP among Latinos that was temporarily interrupted by the Great Recession and a nativist uprising among white Republicans. Whatever unhappiness Latinos felt towards Trump’s immigration views was pretty clearly offset by economic concerns, especially among younger Latino men, who broke towards Trump most sharply. As happened during the Great Recession, the economy mattered most, and the combination of inflation (especially in housing costs) with tight credit eroded already-thin Democratic loyalties. As the above-mentioned Times analysis showed, defections to Trump happened all across the landscape of the Latino electorate, not just among more traditionally Republican-prone groups as Cuban Americans or South Americans. The question as to whether this is a party accomplishment rather than a personal accomplishment by Trump is an open one; Democrats did significantly better among Latinos in down-ballot races in 2024.
A general trend towards a more politically diverse Latino voting population makes some intuitive sense. As former immigrants slowly give way to native-born citizens, particularly those who are entering the middle-class en masse, it’s logical that identification with “the party of immigrants” will decline. Latinos who embrace conservative evangelical–and especially hyper-conservative pentecostal–religious practices also has helped intensify right-leaning cultural attitudes. We may never return to the days of reliable two-to-one Democratic advantages in this community, particularly as young voters who are especially alienated from traditional party loyalties move into the electorate.
While Democrats should be worried about the future of Latino voting behavior, Republicans have no reason for complacency. It’s now Trump and the GOP who are fully responsible for economic conditions which could turn out to be much worse than vague positive memories of the first Trump administration might suggest. And while (as some polling indicates) Latino citizens may have a negative attitude towards the recent surge of migrants that has become so central to Trump’s grip on his MAGA base, it’s less clear the mass deportation regime Trump has pledged to undertake immediately is going to go over well among Latinos, even those who voted for him. A recent Pew survey showed that Latinos were significantly less supportive of a major deportation program than other voters. And if the Trump administration pursues deportation round-ups in a cruel and ham-handed way (which elements of Trump’s base would welcome as a virtue rather than as a vice), or by methods that affect Latino legal immigrants and native citizens (most likely via ethnic profiling by law enforcement officials), we could see a pretty significant Latino backlash.
In other words, while some Latino trend towards the GOP may be inevitable all things being equal, it’s hardly guaranteed and could be sharply reversed. For their part Democrats need to get more serious about Latino voter outreach (particularly among young men) and identify (and learn to explain!) an economic agenda that prioritizes the practical needs of middle-class folk from every background.
I think independents voted for Bush because they believed the propaganda that he would be a real conservative and not expand the government. During the debates, he said he was against nation-building. Both turned out to be lies. It is a switch to hear that the Democrats are for fiscal responsibility while the Republicans spend like “drunken sailors.” And its a switch for the Republican party to be taking us into limited war adventures.
We are headed in the wrong direction – away from what the founders wanted for this country and towards socialism. The only difference in the two parties is the flavor. Government tells us we’re obese and need to go on a diet? That’s hypocrisy. We are supposed to be a Republic of very limited government. Independents are looking at Kerry. But can he bring back the jobs lost due to China PMFN or NAFTA? No more than Bush can. So we’re stuck between two choices – bad and worse. Independents want a strong third party but we’re not getting one.
Well that makes sense. You have to make sure the consumers are solvent enough to continually consume or things go south real fast.
What’s wrong with spending? Under the label “spending” lives are saved, schools are financed, the military is kept equipped, health care is provided. There is nothing wrong with spending, as long as it’s efficient and motivated. To spend you’ll have to tax. This is common sense.
I don’t but into all these ideologically motivated (rich people who want’s to keep their inherited wealth) lies about taxes and government spending. Noone else should.
I’ve worked in the private sector for 20 years and boy, talk about inefficient spending… all image, no content. More money on propaganda (advertising), less on product quality. Unfortunately this is often the truth about free markets.
(This is not to say that taxes can be negative, for example when they stifle growth and entrepreneurial efforts – however this is not so much about the levels of taxation as who you tax. I’m all for lesser taxes – for people with low
incomes)
Give me a “tax and spend” liberal who at least pays for what he spends rather than a Republican who maxes out his credit card like a drunken bum in a liquor store.
Fiscal conservatism fiscal conservatism fiscal conservatism. Nyah!
Tim with a capital “T”: Why get on my case when the public perception of Democrats is “tax and spend”? You didn’t tell me anything I didn’t already know, but if you read what I wrote, you would see I was talking about public perception. Reagan tripled the national debt while spouting off about “tax and spend Democrats.” And he made the charge stick even though it was false. That perception has been worked and reworked since FDR.
As a loyal republican,I must say that Bush has been horrible about limiting the growth in government spending.It is an institutional problem IMO.The democrats are no better on spending and I would argue that they are worse.Electing Kerry is just re-arranging the deck chairs on the titanic.We are not under taxed in the US and especially out here in California.
Tim, I believe you posted to the wrong site. You probably want “Free Republic”.
fiscal conservative?!….. Clinton was just lucky in his timing – sitting on the top of a cycle. I just don’t trust Kerry. Too many constituents make up dem party – so much of the base is blindly for a democrat (minorities for example) Then to justify their selection, they sieze on the hate bush wagon
Dean.. the Dem’s have been out in front on the fiscal responsibility issue since Clinton. Furthermore, Bush is backed into a colossal corner on this issue. He’s racked up historical deficits that dwarf even Reagan’s record. There’s absolutely no way that Bush can turn the tables on Kerry on this front.. if Robert Rubin has anything to do with it.
The issue of fiscal responsibility is an important one to me. As a young person, I view deficits as essentially future taxes on me. It is a burden on our government and our economy that will only materialize many years from now.. when those politicians responsible are retired or dead. My generation will be left with higher taxes and a government that is a drag on future growth in the economy. It is a legacy that will shame both Repug’s and Dem’s.
At the same time.. I wouldn’t put it past Bush to try and seize this issue. Nothing is past this admin. I think the release of the torture memos is evidence that the WH hopes that people aren’t paying attention to the details.. that they just see the headlines.
Go to this link to see coverage of Kerry’s proposals for fiscal responsibility..
http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/clips/news_2004_0408a.html
Opinion on Bush has soured because of the lack of job creation. That is not likely to become a positive for Mr. Bush in time for election.
Why do we call it “fiscal conservatism”??? Conservatism should not figure in any positive statement whatsoever. Fiscal responsibility is the word to use! Please
As I look at the article, I am struck by the passage regarding Bush’s ability to turn his numbers around because of his hard-line conservatism. I think we need to look at what must be done if he does take a different tactic in order to turn those numbers around. Suppose he begins to play the fiscal conservative (fiscal responsibility is NOT a mark of his conservatism). On that front, Democrats remain, because of perception but not reality, vulnerable. It is helpful if the Democratic Party got out in front of fiscal conservatism right now, to prevent a move in that direction from Bush. There are other areas in which the party needs to get out in front to prevent Bush from stealing the center. Bush has already attempted to steal Kerry’s position on Iraq and make it his own by calling for more international involvement. The only thing preventing Bush from really stealing that position is that the international community despises Bush. Even so, he did score a coup in the way of perception by getting his four bogus UN resolutions passed. Only the rush of failures in Iraq prevented him from fully capitalizing on that.
Paul,
Bush has been mixing the optimism ads with the ‘war president’ ads in Ohio. The negative ads about Kerry stopped a couple months back. But I haven’t seen too many Bush ads lately. Maybe he’s holding back his money, or running his ads in other states.
Kerry has been running a health care spot and another one where he talks a little bit about why he wants to be president. It’s not really very optimistic, though, IMHO.
MoveOn.org has been running many ads as well, probably more than either Bush or Kerry. Guess they have all the money! I haven’t seen any GOP advocacy group (is that the correct term?) ads, but I’m in Columbus and that doesn’t mean they aren’t running in Cincy or Cleveland.
I was visiting my mother in Pennsylvania this week-end and caught some of the campaign ads (we dont’ get them here in Massachusetts). Bush’s ad was focused on his optimism regarding the economy. Is this a significant change in focus from being “the war president?” Or has he mixed in this type of ad all along? I would love to hear from anyone in a swing state.
“asshat.” you must be a fark.com reader.
I think that if W had to deal with the same press attitude that Clinton did, you would be seeing more than half the Republicans voting for Kerry.
I really don’t want a close win for Kerry. The Republicans have been shown more than willing to consider any such executive “illegitimate” and further willing to use any extra-constitutional means to unseat them. Can just the independent vote deliver a decisive win?
Not all of us independents are chickens. Until recently, I had the luxury of being able to vote like it was the NFL draft – go for best athelete, not considering the position (yes that seems like loser language to me too).
However, I used to be able to be able to vote for the best person for the job, whether they were democrats, republicans, greens, libertarians, or whatever.
Because I live in Washington State, I no longer currently have the option of voting for whomever I want. That sucks, but I can also sign the initiative which will restore the order I grew up with.
Initiatives are like any other tool which is capable of harming its owner: it’s good when the blade is closed; watch out, otherwise.
This is one of the few initiatives I am willing to sign thanks to Tim “asshat” Eyeman, the Satan worshipping liar and “anti-tax” apocolyte. No, I’m not bitter.