A relatively new term is popping up in articles on 2024 strategy for Democrats that I explained and explored at New York:
When you have a presidential candidate who is struggling to generate enthusiasm in the party base, it’s natural to look for some external stimulation. In the case of Joe Biden, the most obvious source of a 2024 boost is the deep antipathy that nearly all Democrats, many independents, and even a sizable sliver of Republicans feel toward Donald Trump. But in case that’s not enough, Team Biden is looking at another avenue of opportunity, albeit a risky one: the possibility of “reverse coattails” taking him past Trump on a wave of turnout that incidentally benefits the president of the United States.
That’s not the conventional wisdom, as the term reverse coattails makes clear: Normally, it’s the head of the ticket from whom all blessings flow, which makes sense insofar as presidential-election turnout dwarfs that of off-year and midterm contests in no small part because people who don’t necessarily care about the identity of their senator or governor are galvanized by the battle for the White House. But as Russell Berman of The Atlantic explains, this year is different:
“Faith in the reverse-coattails effect is fueling Democratic investments in down-ballot races and referenda. In North Carolina, for example, party officials hope that a favorable matchup in the governor’s race — Democratic attorney general Josh Stein is facing Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson, who has referred to homosexuality as ‘filth’ and compared abortion to slavery — could help Biden carry a state that Trump narrowly won twice. Democrats are also trying to break a Republican supermajority in the legislature, where they are contesting nearly all 170 districts. ‘The bottom of the ticket is absolutely driving engagement and will for all levels of the ballot,’ Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, told me.”
In other states, high-profile ballot measures, particularly those aimed at restoring the abortion rights denied by conservative courts and Republican lawmakers, may generate bottoms-up enthusiasm benefiting Biden and embattled Democratic Senate candidates as well:
“In key states across the country, Democrats and their allies are planting ballot initiatives both to protect reproductive rights where they are under threat and to turn out voters in presidential and congressional battlegrounds. They’ve already placed an abortion measure on the ballot in Florida, where the state supreme court upheld one of the nation’s most restrictive bans on the procedure, and they plan to in Arizona, whose highest court recently ruled that the state could enforce an abortion ban first enacted during the Civil War. Democrats are also collecting signatures for abortion-rights measures in Montana, home to a marquee Senate race, and in Nevada, a presidential swing state that has a competitive Senate matchup this year.”
Berman notes that the reverse-coattails strategy is unproven. Voters, for example, who attracted to the polls by abortion ballot measures don’t always follow the partisan implications of their votes when it comes to candidate preferences. Red-hot down-ballot races are probably more reliable in attracting voters who can be expected to follow the party line to the top of the ticket. A positive precedent can be found in Georgia’s coordinated effort of 2020, when a powerful campaign infrastructure built by Democratic Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock clearly helped maximize Biden’s vote; the 46th president won the state by less than 12,000. Perhaps a strong Senate candidate like Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey could help Biden survive as well. As for the possible effect of ballot measures, it was once generally accepted that in 2004 a GOP strategy of encouraging anti-same-sex-marriage ballot measures helped boost conservative turnout in battleground states like Ohio, enabling George W. Bush’s narrow victory (though there are analysts who argue against that hypothesis). One reason it may work better today is the increasing prevalence of straight-ticket voting and the heavy emphasis of Democratic campaigns up and down the ballot on the kind of support for abortion rights that should help them take advantage of ballot-measure-generated turnout.
We won’t get a good idea of how either reverse-coattails strategy is working until late in the 2024 campaign when it becomes possible to measure new voter registrations, screen registered voters for their likelihood to participate in the election, and assess states where down-ballot contests are turning into a Democratic blowout. Team Biden would be wise to do everything in its power to lift the president’s popularity and build a favorability advantage over Trump that can reduce the number of “double haters” likely to stay home or vote for a change in the party management of Washington.
I think independents voted for Bush because they believed the propaganda that he would be a real conservative and not expand the government. During the debates, he said he was against nation-building. Both turned out to be lies. It is a switch to hear that the Democrats are for fiscal responsibility while the Republicans spend like “drunken sailors.” And its a switch for the Republican party to be taking us into limited war adventures.
We are headed in the wrong direction – away from what the founders wanted for this country and towards socialism. The only difference in the two parties is the flavor. Government tells us we’re obese and need to go on a diet? That’s hypocrisy. We are supposed to be a Republic of very limited government. Independents are looking at Kerry. But can he bring back the jobs lost due to China PMFN or NAFTA? No more than Bush can. So we’re stuck between two choices – bad and worse. Independents want a strong third party but we’re not getting one.
Well that makes sense. You have to make sure the consumers are solvent enough to continually consume or things go south real fast.
What’s wrong with spending? Under the label “spending” lives are saved, schools are financed, the military is kept equipped, health care is provided. There is nothing wrong with spending, as long as it’s efficient and motivated. To spend you’ll have to tax. This is common sense.
I don’t but into all these ideologically motivated (rich people who want’s to keep their inherited wealth) lies about taxes and government spending. Noone else should.
I’ve worked in the private sector for 20 years and boy, talk about inefficient spending… all image, no content. More money on propaganda (advertising), less on product quality. Unfortunately this is often the truth about free markets.
(This is not to say that taxes can be negative, for example when they stifle growth and entrepreneurial efforts – however this is not so much about the levels of taxation as who you tax. I’m all for lesser taxes – for people with low
incomes)
Give me a “tax and spend” liberal who at least pays for what he spends rather than a Republican who maxes out his credit card like a drunken bum in a liquor store.
Fiscal conservatism fiscal conservatism fiscal conservatism. Nyah!
Tim with a capital “T”: Why get on my case when the public perception of Democrats is “tax and spend”? You didn’t tell me anything I didn’t already know, but if you read what I wrote, you would see I was talking about public perception. Reagan tripled the national debt while spouting off about “tax and spend Democrats.” And he made the charge stick even though it was false. That perception has been worked and reworked since FDR.
As a loyal republican,I must say that Bush has been horrible about limiting the growth in government spending.It is an institutional problem IMO.The democrats are no better on spending and I would argue that they are worse.Electing Kerry is just re-arranging the deck chairs on the titanic.We are not under taxed in the US and especially out here in California.
Tim, I believe you posted to the wrong site. You probably want “Free Republic”.
fiscal conservative?!….. Clinton was just lucky in his timing – sitting on the top of a cycle. I just don’t trust Kerry. Too many constituents make up dem party – so much of the base is blindly for a democrat (minorities for example) Then to justify their selection, they sieze on the hate bush wagon
Dean.. the Dem’s have been out in front on the fiscal responsibility issue since Clinton. Furthermore, Bush is backed into a colossal corner on this issue. He’s racked up historical deficits that dwarf even Reagan’s record. There’s absolutely no way that Bush can turn the tables on Kerry on this front.. if Robert Rubin has anything to do with it.
The issue of fiscal responsibility is an important one to me. As a young person, I view deficits as essentially future taxes on me. It is a burden on our government and our economy that will only materialize many years from now.. when those politicians responsible are retired or dead. My generation will be left with higher taxes and a government that is a drag on future growth in the economy. It is a legacy that will shame both Repug’s and Dem’s.
At the same time.. I wouldn’t put it past Bush to try and seize this issue. Nothing is past this admin. I think the release of the torture memos is evidence that the WH hopes that people aren’t paying attention to the details.. that they just see the headlines.
Go to this link to see coverage of Kerry’s proposals for fiscal responsibility..
http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/clips/news_2004_0408a.html
Opinion on Bush has soured because of the lack of job creation. That is not likely to become a positive for Mr. Bush in time for election.
Why do we call it “fiscal conservatism”??? Conservatism should not figure in any positive statement whatsoever. Fiscal responsibility is the word to use! Please
As I look at the article, I am struck by the passage regarding Bush’s ability to turn his numbers around because of his hard-line conservatism. I think we need to look at what must be done if he does take a different tactic in order to turn those numbers around. Suppose he begins to play the fiscal conservative (fiscal responsibility is NOT a mark of his conservatism). On that front, Democrats remain, because of perception but not reality, vulnerable. It is helpful if the Democratic Party got out in front of fiscal conservatism right now, to prevent a move in that direction from Bush. There are other areas in which the party needs to get out in front to prevent Bush from stealing the center. Bush has already attempted to steal Kerry’s position on Iraq and make it his own by calling for more international involvement. The only thing preventing Bush from really stealing that position is that the international community despises Bush. Even so, he did score a coup in the way of perception by getting his four bogus UN resolutions passed. Only the rush of failures in Iraq prevented him from fully capitalizing on that.
Paul,
Bush has been mixing the optimism ads with the ‘war president’ ads in Ohio. The negative ads about Kerry stopped a couple months back. But I haven’t seen too many Bush ads lately. Maybe he’s holding back his money, or running his ads in other states.
Kerry has been running a health care spot and another one where he talks a little bit about why he wants to be president. It’s not really very optimistic, though, IMHO.
MoveOn.org has been running many ads as well, probably more than either Bush or Kerry. Guess they have all the money! I haven’t seen any GOP advocacy group (is that the correct term?) ads, but I’m in Columbus and that doesn’t mean they aren’t running in Cincy or Cleveland.
I was visiting my mother in Pennsylvania this week-end and caught some of the campaign ads (we dont’ get them here in Massachusetts). Bush’s ad was focused on his optimism regarding the economy. Is this a significant change in focus from being “the war president?” Or has he mixed in this type of ad all along? I would love to hear from anyone in a swing state.
“asshat.” you must be a fark.com reader.
I think that if W had to deal with the same press attitude that Clinton did, you would be seeing more than half the Republicans voting for Kerry.
I really don’t want a close win for Kerry. The Republicans have been shown more than willing to consider any such executive “illegitimate” and further willing to use any extra-constitutional means to unseat them. Can just the independent vote deliver a decisive win?
Not all of us independents are chickens. Until recently, I had the luxury of being able to vote like it was the NFL draft – go for best athelete, not considering the position (yes that seems like loser language to me too).
However, I used to be able to be able to vote for the best person for the job, whether they were democrats, republicans, greens, libertarians, or whatever.
Because I live in Washington State, I no longer currently have the option of voting for whomever I want. That sucks, but I can also sign the initiative which will restore the order I grew up with.
Initiatives are like any other tool which is capable of harming its owner: it’s good when the blade is closed; watch out, otherwise.
This is one of the few initiatives I am willing to sign thanks to Tim “asshat” Eyeman, the Satan worshipping liar and “anti-tax” apocolyte. No, I’m not bitter.