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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

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Unmarried Women Now Key Element of Democratic Base

A recent Democracy Corps analysis by Anna Greenberg and Jennifer Berktold shows that unmarried women, 23 percent of the electorate in 2004, are becomming a strongly pro-Democratic constituency. Greenberg and Berktold report that unmarried women cast 62 percent of their ballots for John Kerry (vs. 44 percent of married women’s ballots), and they tend to hold significantly more liberal views than married women on major issues such as Iraq, the economy and womens’ rights.


Final Harris Poll Points to Kerry Victory

John Kerry leads George Bush 50-47 percent of nation-wide LV’s, according to the final Harris Interactive Online Survey, conducted 10/29-11/1. Kerry also leads Bush 48-47 percent of nation-wide LV’s, according to the final Harris Interactive Telephone Survey. Both poills indicate a surge for Kerry over the previous Harris Poll. The Harris report on the poll notes “If this trend is real, then Kerry may actually do better than these numbers suggest. In the past, presidential challengers tend to do better against an incumbent President among the undecided voters during the last three days of the elections, and that appears to be the case here. The reason: undecided voters are more often voters who dislike the President but do not know the challenger well enough to make a decision. When they decide, they frequently split 2:1 to 4:1 for the challenger.”
The Harris Poll in three key states also affirmed the strong likelihood of a Kerry victory:
Florida – Kerry leads 51-47 percent of LV’s
Pennsylvania – Kerry ahead 50-48 percent of LV’s
Ohio – Kerry up 51-47 percent of LV’s
As the Harris report concluded, “Assuming the forecast is correct, Kerry is likely to win all three large states, and almost certainly the White House along with it.”


Marist Poll: Kerry, Bush Tied Among RVs, Kerry Leads Among LVs

John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 48 percent of nation-wide RVs in a Marist Poll conducted 10/31. Among LVs, Kerry has a one point lead (49-48).


Des Moines Register Poll: Kerry Leads by 3 in Iowa

John Kerry leads George Bush in Iowa 48-45 percent of LV/AV’s, according to a Des Moines Register Poll conducted 10/25-9.


Kerry Leads in NH, PA, MN, Tied in NV, Down 4 in VA

Bush leads Kerry 51-47 percent of Virginia LV’s, according to a SurveyUSA Poll conducted 10/27-9.
John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 49 percent of Nevada LV’s, according to a SurveyUSA Poll conducted 10/28-9.
John Kerry leads George Bush 49-46 percent of New Hampshire LV’s, according to a Concord Monitor Poll conducted 10/26-28.
Kerry leads Bush 48-47 percent of Pennsylvania LV’s, according to a Temple/Inquirer Poll conducted 10/22-7.
Kerry leads Bush 49-41 percent of Minnesota LV’s, according to a Star-Tribune Poll conducted 10/26-9.


Kerry Ahead by 1 in New ARG National Poll

John Kerry leads George Bush 49-48 percent of nation-wide RV’s, according to an American Research Group Poll conducted 10/28-30. The poll also found Kerry leading among Independents 48-45 percent.


Newsweek Poll: Bush Up 3, Approval At 46%

George Bush leads John Kerry 48-45 percent of nation-wide RV’s in a 2-way Newsweek Poll conducted 10/27-29. The poll also found that Bush’s approval rating was 46 percent.


Kerry Up 1 in NM, Tied in NH

John Kerry leads George Bush 48-47 percent of New Mexico LV’s, according to an American Research Group Poll conducted 10/27-30.
Kerry and Bush are tied at 47 percent of New Hampshire LV’s, according to an American Research Group Poll conducted 10/27-30.


Kerry Takes Lead in New Florida Poll

John Kerry leads George Bush 48.3-46.7 among Florida LV’s, with 1.5 percent for Ralph Nader, according to a Florida Opinion Poll conducted 10/23-7 by New York Times Regional Newspapers. The poll also found that Kerry leads Bush among Florida Independents 48-40 percent.


Kerry Ahead by 6 and 4 in Pair of New MI Polls

John Kerry leads George Bush 46-40 percent of Michigan LVs, according to a Detroit News/Mitchell Research and Communications Poll conducted
10/25-28.
Kerry leads Bush 50-46 percent of MI LV’s in a Research 2000 Poll conducted 10/25-27.