John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 48 percent of Arkansas LV’s, according to a new Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group Poll conducted 10/18-20. Kerry was down by 9 percent in the ANB poll taken two weeks ago.
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Editor’s Corner
By Ed Kilgore
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April 25: Can “Reverse Coattails” Help Biden Win?
A relatively new term is popping up in articles on 2024 strategy for Democrats that I explained and explored at New York:
When you have a presidential candidate who is struggling to generate enthusiasm in the party base, it’s natural to look for some external stimulation. In the case of Joe Biden, the most obvious source of a 2024 boost is the deep antipathy that nearly all Democrats, many independents, and even a sizable sliver of Republicans feel toward Donald Trump. But in case that’s not enough, Team Biden is looking at another avenue of opportunity, albeit a risky one: the possibility of “reverse coattails” taking him past Trump on a wave of turnout that incidentally benefits the president of the United States.
That’s not the conventional wisdom, as the term reverse coattails makes clear: Normally, it’s the head of the ticket from whom all blessings flow, which makes sense insofar as presidential-election turnout dwarfs that of off-year and midterm contests in no small part because people who don’t necessarily care about the identity of their senator or governor are galvanized by the battle for the White House. But as Russell Berman of The Atlantic explains, this year is different:
“Faith in the reverse-coattails effect is fueling Democratic investments in down-ballot races and referenda. In North Carolina, for example, party officials hope that a favorable matchup in the governor’s race — Democratic attorney general Josh Stein is facing Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson, who has referred to homosexuality as ‘filth’ and compared abortion to slavery — could help Biden carry a state that Trump narrowly won twice. Democrats are also trying to break a Republican supermajority in the legislature, where they are contesting nearly all 170 districts. ‘The bottom of the ticket is absolutely driving engagement and will for all levels of the ballot,’ Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, told me.”
In other states, high-profile ballot measures, particularly those aimed at restoring the abortion rights denied by conservative courts and Republican lawmakers, may generate bottoms-up enthusiasm benefiting Biden and embattled Democratic Senate candidates as well:
“In key states across the country, Democrats and their allies are planting ballot initiatives both to protect reproductive rights where they are under threat and to turn out voters in presidential and congressional battlegrounds. They’ve already placed an abortion measure on the ballot in Florida, where the state supreme court upheld one of the nation’s most restrictive bans on the procedure, and they plan to in Arizona, whose highest court recently ruled that the state could enforce an abortion ban first enacted during the Civil War. Democrats are also collecting signatures for abortion-rights measures in Montana, home to a marquee Senate race, and in Nevada, a presidential swing state that has a competitive Senate matchup this year.”
Berman notes that the reverse-coattails strategy is unproven. Voters, for example, who attracted to the polls by abortion ballot measures don’t always follow the partisan implications of their votes when it comes to candidate preferences. Red-hot down-ballot races are probably more reliable in attracting voters who can be expected to follow the party line to the top of the ticket. A positive precedent can be found in Georgia’s coordinated effort of 2020, when a powerful campaign infrastructure built by Democratic Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock clearly helped maximize Biden’s vote; the 46th president won the state by less than 12,000. Perhaps a strong Senate candidate like Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey could help Biden survive as well. As for the possible effect of ballot measures, it was once generally accepted that in 2004 a GOP strategy of encouraging anti-same-sex-marriage ballot measures helped boost conservative turnout in battleground states like Ohio, enabling George W. Bush’s narrow victory (though there are analysts who argue against that hypothesis). One reason it may work better today is the increasing prevalence of straight-ticket voting and the heavy emphasis of Democratic campaigns up and down the ballot on the kind of support for abortion rights that should help them take advantage of ballot-measure-generated turnout.
We won’t get a good idea of how either reverse-coattails strategy is working until late in the 2024 campaign when it becomes possible to measure new voter registrations, screen registered voters for their likelihood to participate in the election, and assess states where down-ballot contests are turning into a Democratic blowout. Team Biden would be wise to do everything in its power to lift the president’s popularity and build a favorability advantage over Trump that can reduce the number of “double haters” likely to stay home or vote for a change in the party management of Washington.
Perhaps the best number for Kerry in the Arkansas poll is his strength in the Third Congressional District. The 3rd, which covers Northwest Arkansas, is the most heavily Republican area in the state. It was heavily Republican long before Republicans had any standing in Arkansas, and the district has had a Republican in Congress since at least the 1960s. The district is now home to big companies like Tyson Chicken and Wal-Mart, and still tends to be very conservative.
Kerry’s showing of 45% in the 3rd district, then, is very, very good. If Bush does not beat Kerry by more than eight percent in the 3rd in Arkansas, Bush will have a very hard time winning the state because the other three Congressional districts are usually fairly Democratic.
Kerry can win this state. Clinton’s doing a few events here would sew it up.
I don’t understand what “link” stands for on your site. It looks to be a way to connect with the original report of a poll, so that more details can be learned. However, clicking on “link” simply provides a repeat of the original paragraph.
I would expect that President Clinton, who plans to be in Fla late tomorrow after a rally with Senator Kerry in Philadelphia, will, as rumored, spend some quality time in Arkansas now that those important handfull of electoral votes are clearly up for grabs.
If we can pick off Ark, then losing NV (which never looked particularly promising for Kerry) surely will be less important.
Thanks Ruy for absolutely the best, most informative and analytical political writing on the web. You are a refuge for many looking for a clear minded look at what really is going on beneath the surface.
dsslaw
Bill Clinton needs to campaign this week in Arkansas. He could really make the difference.
For those who are worrying about Zogby — ironically it seems to be an outlier this weekend. ABC went to just 1 point and, in terms starkly opposite to those of Zogby, found that “Saturday was Kerry’s best single day since this tracking poll began Oct.1.” Rasmussen also tightened up, less than 0.5 now between them, so no time to panic. Zogby himself suggested that most of the undecideds coming home in his poll are probably from the South. We never had them to begin with… Tomorrow’s Zogby’s numbers will be not pretty, perhaps, but in 2000 around this time Bush was also +5 or so in Zogby’s poll.