An Aug 17-23rd Poll by Investor’s Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP finds Bush and Kerry tied at 43%. Kerry continues to hold lead with independents 41%-35%

A Aug. 20-22 CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll shows Kerry and Bush tied at 46%-46% among registered voters. with 8% still undecided. This represents an improvement in Kerry’s standing from July 19-22 when Bush lead among registered voters 49%-45%

An August 16-18 poll by the London Economist, using a relatively large sample of 1799 respondents, showed John Kerry with a firm lead of 48% to 41% over George W. Bush.

Recent press commentary has combined data from polls by CBS and The Annenberg Center on Public Policy to paint a dismaying picture of the effect of the ads by the Bush surrogate group “Swift Boat Vets for Truth”, particularly among veterans.
The two most widely quoted statistics are The Annenberg Center for Public Policy’s finding that more then half the country knows about the ads, and that, of that group, close to half – 46% – found the ads “very or somewhat believable”. This finding, along with CBS data that show Kerry’s support among vets precipitously falling from a 46%-46% tie with Bush immediately after the Democratic convention to a 37%-55% deficit on August 15-18, has been combined in several analyses to draw the conclusion that the anti-Kerry ads have been very effective and deeply destructive to the Kerry campaign.
Caution is in order, however, in interpreting these findings. The published report of the Annenberg survey does not present separate results for those who found the ads “very” believable versus those who found them only “somewhat” believable. Given the extensive and extremely right-slanted character of the press coverage (FOX/Murdoch providing sympathetic coverage; the other networks neutrally reporting “The Growing Controversy”) a survey response that the charges are “somewhat” believable may represent an cautious “I don’t know, but, heck, there may be something” reservation of judgment, and not a firm belief.
This possibility is bolstered by the fact that, when asked if they believed the major accusation against Kerry – that he did not legitimately earn all his medals – only 21% of the Annenberg respondents agreed. The strong majority — 59% — supported Kerry on this issue, with an additional 20% withholding judgment. Thus, while the data clearly show that the anti-Kerry ads have become widely known, their actual effectiveness is not yet clear.
The CBS data showing a dramatic decline in Kerry’s support among veterans since the convention must also be handled with care. A Rasmussen Reports poll taken shortly after the Democratic convention (Aug 4th) showed Kerry with only 35% support among veterans, compared with 58% for Bush – a result not very different then the CBS data for August 15-18 after the ads had appeared. It therefore remains unclear how much influence the anti-Kerry swift boat ads have actually had.
As the Bush surrogate groups now switch their attack to Kerry’s anti-Vietnam war positions in the early 1970’s, the issues will shift, but it will become increasingly important to consider the extent to which these attacks simply reinforce the views of voters who were already planning to vote for George W. Bush or if they begin to successfully undermine support for Kerry among voters not yet committed. At this point, it’s still too early to tell.

An Aug. 10-15 Harris Poll finds Kerry and Bush tied at 47%-47%. A June poll by Harris showed Bush with a substantial lead of 51% vs. 41% making the current tie represent a 6% improvement for Kerry since June and a 4% decline for Bush.

An Aug. 15-18 CBS poll gives Kerry/Edwards a one-point lead over Bush/Cheney. Without Ralph Nader included, the Kerry advantage rises to 3% – Kerry/Edwards 47% vs. Bush/Cheney 44%

An August 14-17 poll of Ohio voters by Strategic Vision shows Bush/Cheney leading Kerry/Edwards by 49%-46%. But the trend since July 17-19th indicates that undecided voters declined from 8 to 5% and Kerry/Edwards increased from 44% to their current 46%

The report, released August 18th, notes that “With foreign policy and defense issues at the forefront of the presidential campaign this year, swing voters’ views on a range of (foreign policy) issues take on added importance. On eight of the 11 foreign policy issues in the poll on which there are significant partisan gaps, opinions of swing voters are closer to those of Kerry supporters than to those of Bush voters.
On several issues, the differences between swing voters and committed Bush voters is substantial. More than half of swing voters (53%) regard strengthening the United Nations as a top priority compared with 35% of Bush voters who have this view. And about twice as many swing voters as Bush supporters view global warming as a major concern (35% vs. 18%). ”
UPCATEGORY: Ruy Teixeira’s Donkey Rising

An August 18 poll of Michigan voters conducted by Strategic Vision (R) shows Kerry holding his lead over George W. Bush. The survey shows Bush’s disapproval rating rising from 40% to 47% since July 17th.

The News and Observer reports that “In what may be the closest presidential race in the state since 1992, Democrat John Kerry is within 3 percentage points of President Bush in a new poll”.