Having followed the ups and downs and twists and turns of House passage of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, I offered some thoughts at New York of where things stand for Republicans and for Democrats:
Republicans are in a state of euphoric self-congratulation over House passage of what’s known as the Big Beautiful Bill.
Politico Playbook, the Beltway’s daily bread, referred to the GOP Speaker of the House as “Magic Johnson” for his last-minute deal-making and cat-herding in securing its passage by a single vote, which happened before a Memorial Day deadline that many had thought unrealistic. He’s sharing credit, of course, with The Boss, Donald Trump, who wheedled and threatened and thundered in the presence of BBB holdouts at several key moments. In the end, for all the interminable talk of “rebellious” GOP factions unwilling to support the gigantic bill as either too vicious or not vicious enough, the price of collective failure was just too high for nearly all of them.
But now, of course, we are about to be reminded that Congress is a bicameral institution, and despite Republican control of both chambers, there are enough issues in the Senate with the carefully balanced Jenga tower the House built to endanger the edifice anew. And when the Senate does produce its version of BBB (the informal but very real deadline is July 4), the two bills will have to be reconciled, and the final product passed by both Houses and sent to Trump for his signature. This needs to happen before the arrival of the so-called X Date — likely in August — when the Treasury finally breaches the statutory debt limit, which is increased in the BBB.
As a former Senate employee, I can assure you that members and staff of that body have enormous institutional self-regard, regardless of party, and will not accept take-it-or-leave-it demands from the petty little pissants of the House. Beyond that, it’s important to understand that what makes “reconciliation” bills like BBB possible is the ability to avoid a Senate filibuster, and there are arcane but very real rules, policed by the non-partisan Senate parliamentarian, about what can and cannot be included in a budget reconciliation bill. So some changes may become absolutely necessary.
More importantly, the very divisions that came close to derailing the bill in the House exist in the Senate as well, with some special twists.
One of the most powerful House factions was the SALT caucus, a sizable group of Republicans from high-tax blue states determined to lift or abolish the cap on SALT (state and local tax) deductions imposed by the 2017 tax cut bill. They were able to secure an increase in the cap from $10,000 to $40,000 (with an inflation adjustment over the next ten years), a juicy treat for upper-middle-income tax itemizers with big property-tax bills, costing an estimated $320 billion. There are no Republican senators from the big SALT states, but there are a lot who deeply resent what they regard as a subsidy for free-spending Democrats in the states most affected. Maybe they’ll care enough about GOP control of the House to throw a lifeline to vulnerable members like Mike Lawler of New York or Young Kim of California, who have made SALT a big personal campaign-trail issue. But there are limits to empathy in Washington.
Another red-hot issue in the House was the size and nature of Medicaid cuts, with the BBB winding up with big cuts mostly accomplished via new “work requirements” that will cost millions of low-income people their health insurance. Senators are divided on Medicaid as well, notes Politico:
“GOP Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine have all warned they have red lines they will not cross on Medicaid and that they believe the House bill goes beyond ‘waste, fraud and abuse.’ The alignment between Hawley, a staunch conservative, with moderates like Murkowski and Collins, underscores how skittishness over changes to the health safety-net program is resonating across the ideological spectrum.”
There are similar problems with the SNAP (food stamp) cuts that shift many billions of dollars of costs to the states. And the way BBB structure the SNAP cuts the cost-shift will be particularly egregious for states with high “error rates” for SNAP paperwork and benefit determinations. Three states with two Republican senators each, Alaska, South Carolina and Tennessee, could really get hammered. They won’t be happy about it.
But at the same time, the HFC hard-liners, who were the very last faction to cave in to Trump’s pressure on the BBB, have counterparts in the Senate with their own complaints about the roughly $3 trillion the BBB adds to the national debt, notes Politico:
“Sen. Ron Johnson … is pushing for a return to pre-pandemic spending levels — a roughly $6 trillion cut. The Wisconsin Republican said in an interview he knows he won’t get that level of savings in the megabill but wants to tackle a chunk under the budget reconciliation process and then set up a bicameral commission to go ‘line by line’ to find the rest.
“Johnson also believes he has the votes to block a bill that doesn’t take deficit reduction seriously, pointing to Republican Sens. Mike Lee of Utah, Rick Scott of Florida and Rand Paul of Kentucky as senators sharing his concerns.”
If Mike Johnson is “magic,” Ron Johnson is “poison.”
On top of everything else, the budget resolution the Senate passed to set up its version of BBB includes an accounting trick that basically means the two chambers are operating from very different baseline numbers. The Senate’s insistence on “current policy scoring” means $3.8 trillion worth of expiring tax cuts that will be resurrected are deemed as “revenue neutral,” a fancy term for “free.” Perhaps the Senate parliamentarian will blow up that scam, but if not, it will cause problems in the House.
These are just the most obvious BBB problems; others will emerge as senators use their leverage to shape the bill to reflect their own political needs and the grubbier desires of the wealthy interests Republicans tend to represent. And for all the talk of the House being the body in which Republicans have no margin for error or division (two voted no and one voted “present”), the same number of GOP senators, four, could blow up the BBB. It’s going to be a long, wild ride, and the only people in Washington who know exactly what to say about the BBB are Democrats. No matter what tweaks Republicans make, the final product is still going to “cut safety net programs to give the wealthy tax cuts” while borrowing money to do so. That’s just baked into the cake.
I see VoteHillary.org which pushed a 2004 Hillary Rodham Clinton Draft presidency is now pushing her for president in 2008. The site is http://www.votehillary.org I have heard it will be launched as early as next week.
Ruy:
Since you don’t have trackback enabled…I wanted you to know that I used your piece on a blog post:
http://preemptivekarma.com/2004/08/we-are-sultans-of-swing.html
send them a few emails… tell them just how you think… in English.
I watched Inside Politics and was pissed off because they spent more than 10 min talking to that lier spewing out his poison about Kerry’s record on the swift boat and they knew all to well that the Washington Post article, with proof from the military records, that his story was a lie. They didn’t even give equal time to Kerry’s side nor did they even mention the story as reported in the Washington Post. Maybe they are taking over for FOX as being “Fair And Balanced”.
I suppose its easy and somewhat expected for persons to start sweating beads of anxiety and why not?
About 8 months ago, everyone was thinking that Kerry had very few of the qualities needed to be president and most were hoping that he would pick a prospective VP that would swing the line his way. Right now however, everyone is somewhat surprised that this same Kerry is now in the lead on every issue and seems to be holding his own quite well, even with his cool, relaxed, calculated, timely demeanor and his long face too.
Its this lead from a person who wasnt quite expected to lead that has everyone wondering and calculating and figuring out stuff, and polling and working out the neck and necks and every other thing.
However, when I stop to think about it, I dont think that Kerry is surprised by his current position. I think that he is truly a reflection of his demeanor. I get the feeling that this game is playing out according to plan, even tho its causing some people to be drenched in sweat with worry and anxiety.
I remember hearing some people say that they are glad that he picked Edwards because Edwards could back him up with better speeches and better facial presentations etc… but, from the looks of it, I dont get the impression that Kerry is even thinking of Edward much.
So much so, that he has sent Edwards off to spread the word, while he handles his end of the campaign. I dont and cant think of anyone who can come right out and say that Kerry is making a mess of things. Kerry is rising like cream to the heart of the game. I read his response to the swift boat ads today and he was right on the mark. hard hitting and yet using the best of English and with words well chosen and well placed. Personally, I dont think todays speech is his best speech yet, but from what I read, I get the distinct impression that he has more to say and will say it.
From what I read today, I dare Bush to personally launch an attack on Kerry to the tune of Kerry’s response to the Swfit boat ad. I dare Bush to change his tune and not continue in his previous mode of saying that Kerry is an honorable Veteran.
Kerry is on the move and hence I agree with the other posts which note that someone needs to check on the GOP and Pat Roberts and Jerry Falwell and that crowd. Someone needs to monitor things and challenge the republicans to be clean this time around.
I dont think that there is any real need for anxiety about Kerry. He seems to know what he is about and he is playing his cards the way he wants to. I have not seen or heard any recent mis-steps from him and currently he is under relentless attack from the GOP fronts.
Even tho I have noticed alot more support from the rank and file dems and various supporting organisations, I still think that its important that every kerry supporter beat the streets, wear out some soles and tell somebody to vote for Kerry.
The world needs a change in the White House. One thing that is certain, is that the world will breathe a sigh of relief when Bush departs this White House. The world stands a better chance of quelling the attacks of terrorist under a Kerry regime. The World stands a better chance of getting help to fix Iraq and the world under a kerry umbrella. The World is much more prone to getting help with just about every world issue if people vote for Kerry.
Unfortunately Americans are not voting for a president this year, the burden is now to vote for a leader of the free world and thats not a role the George Bush can fulfill.. I am very sorry GWB but you just dont cut it. Kerry deserves his opportunity to prove his metal.
Cheers
to SC. Thanks for clearing that up I read it like the writer meant it and didn’t notice the spelling.
I read somewhere that the Kerry campaign had recruited about 2000 lawyers who were going to spearhead efforts in targeted states to monitor the election and respond to fraud. In my state the Kerry campaign is recuriting volunteers with the goal of having a pollwatcher at every polling site. So I think there is concern at the top and actions are being taken. I do think that it is important to publicize every attempt at fraud as widely as possible now so that when the fraud occurs on election day, people will not be surprised. Of course some fraud is hard to detect. I was a poll watcher at an election about twenty years ago and we had a high number of people who came in to vote only to discover that their names were not listed at that site. We gave them absentee ballots so they could vote anyway. It turned out that the business responisble for printing the voting lists had “accidently” printed the names of Democrats at the wrong polling sites. The business was a small local concern owned by the chair of the county Republican party.
Also our state Kerry campaign is calling all Democratic and independent voters and urging them to switch to absentee ballots.
The Republicans will cheat in this election. I expect that soon they will start rumors of Democratic cheating since accusing us of their crimes is part of their way of operating.
If you think your state Kerry campaign is not planning for for ways to deal with election fraud, then call them up, get active, voice your concerns. But the fact that the kerry campaign in my safe Kerry state is planning for fraud should be reassuring. If steps are being taken here, they must be taking steps in Ohio and Florida.
Link is to WashPost article this AM discrediting central claims of one of Kerry’s most vocal Swift boat critics:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A13267-2004Aug18.html
Wonderful letter, BT. Honestly, I find myself in a lather of anxiety over the coming election. It has long been my contention that Republicans do not really want educated voters or honest elections because that would be a losing situation for them. When we have a media which is also corporately owned and pretty much do the bidding of the people in power, what hope is there. I feel like we are spitting in the wind!
I don’t usually get so discouraged, but we’ve just been treated to 2 weeks of swift boat ads by the Republican slime machine, and I have a bad, bad feeling that there’s going to be more mud thrown by them shortly, and they are so carefully crafted that they are difficult to dispute. Josh Marshall has a good article this morning about this. We’re going to have to get as good at throwing dirt as the Republicans. God knows, Bush has given us enough to work with!
I’d like to see an ad that talks about the 500 or so men that Bush skipped over to get into the TANG. How many of those men were subsequently drafted to Viet Nam and how many of them died so that the shrub could sit on his ass swigging beers and not showing up for duty?
I’m angry about the dirt these Republicans throw, and I think it’s time we threw some back.
I think Fact Checker is referring to the use of “then” instead of “than”. It’s a common mistake, unfortunately.
“than” means you are making a comparison. “then” means that something else happened next. Very different words, even thought there’s only one letter different.
The headline should be
“Pew Research Center Report Shows Swing Voters Closer to Kerry Than Bush”.
By using “then”, it makes it sound like swing voters were closer to Kerry, but are now closer to Bush.
BT, that’s a terrific letter! (I have read Toobin’s book.) Of course, this problem is bigger than Florida, enormous as Florida is. Maybe we need lawyers to get started filing suits (or something) now. The NY Times has a good editorial this (Thursday) morning on this subject in its broadest context.
BTW, if you or sympathetic others you know are having trouble getting worked up about free and fair elections I’d recommend as page-turner bedtime reading Jeff Toobin’s book on the Florida recount, Too Close to Call.
Michael, I couldn’t agree more, with one exception.
I agree wholeheartedly with Bel’s pleas to ordinary citizens to get involved and help our cause, recognizing that many are doing so now.
While it would be comforting to believe that the DNC, state Dem parties, and advocacy organizations can and will take care of these problems for others of us who share these concerns, I think we are better off assuming they need all the help they can get.
Re Florida, I sent this letter to an influential, sympathetic national columnist this morning:
Dear ,
Pardon my language, but what in the hell has the federal government been doing on election reform during the Bush Administration? The changes they enacted awhile back were mildly helpful as I understand it, but nowhere near what obviously needed to be addressed following the Florida debacle. The buck stops at the White House for this for yet another example of abysmal, utterly failed leadership–this time, at inexcusable peril to the health of our democracy.
What does it say about the level of confidence people have in our voting systems when the Florida Republican party is urging voters to vote absentee, and when many other citizens in jurisdictions with electronic voting machines but no paper trail backup are deciding for themselves that if they want their votes counted, absentee is the way to go?
Regarding the circumstances reported in Bob Herbert’s column earlier this week in the NY Times, why is it that no one–absolutely no one–evidently even believes it is appropriate to demand that Governor Bush see to it that an immediate, impartial, and thorough investigation be launched to determine whether federal voting rights laws have been violated in this instance?! The investigation needs to be completed swiftly and the results shared openly with the public.
Evidently, by the lights of Republican doctrine, it’s just fine for the US Supreme Court to find a sufficiently compelling federal interest in how Florida does its voting to shut down the recount ordered by the Florida Supreme Court in 2000. But it’s not enough of a federal interest for the other two branches of the federal government–controlled by the same party– to take vigorous action to see to it that the problems which led to this extreme and unusual (and of course unjustified) intervention be rectified.
How can we possibly find ourselves in the situation we are in 11 weeks before this election? Amazing.
(end of letter)
Fact Checker, I don’t understand your comment? It looks fine to me.
The is not directly relevant to the Pew poll but is nonetheless extremely important, I feel: There have been a spate of stories in the press lately–notably Paul Krugman’s latest column–concerning the honesty of the coming election. Will all the votes be accurately counted? Will all eligible voters who wish to vote be permitted to do so? I hope the Democratic Party at the highest levels as well as the various “good government” organizations and the media are monitoring these issues very closely. They obviously go to the very core of our democracy.
“Swing Voters Closer to Kerry Then Bush.” So, which is it? Typo perhaps?