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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Harris Poll Finds Race Tied.

An Aug. 10-15 Harris Poll finds Kerry and Bush tied at 47%-47%. A June poll by Harris showed Bush with a substantial lead of 51% vs. 41% making the current tie represent a 6% improvement for Kerry since June and a 4% decline for Bush.

37 comments on “Harris Poll Finds Race Tied.

  1. Bel on

    Thanks Jeff… and Ed. Your support is much appreciated. Dont worry about my response to Ron… I just needed to knock the wind outta his sail while I move on to other posts in later comments sections.. but thanks again.

  2. Ron Thompson on

    God, I’m sick of these long-winded pointless postings by Bel. 32 comments in this chain, and 13 of them by the same half-wit.
    Put a sock in it, Bel.

  3. Bel on

    Matt…. you might think that you are right in your analogy… and you might be right in some measure… but consider this…. to realise that you are stupid and inept and surround yourself with a wall so solid that nothing penetrates it might require the mind of a genius… have you considered that?
    What I am really saying here is that one should never take the other person for granted no matter how stupid he appears.
    The Kerry supporters must fight like hell.. and quit wondering about Bush.

  4. matt on

    i feel that bush on some level elicits a kind of bizarre sympathy…he is so weak, ill-spoken and ill-equipped that people find it hard to allow themselves to really face the obvious truth, terrified to let in the fact this guy is completely inept. the tragic irony is that in times like now, when we really need someone who has what it takes upstairs, so many are willing to bury their heads in the sand…it is simply too much to face the fact this is the human being who has the most power in the entire world. he appeals to some base compassion for the village idiot. i must admit that despite my devout contempt for this guy as he leads my country down the toilet, i find myself actually feeling sorry for the poor bastard as he gets up everyday and works his ass off faking his way.

  5. Bel on

    Follow the above link and you will realise why I have been asking this question about cross over people in the last few weeks.
    Here is a democrat, Koch, who is willing to cross over and support Bush, not only support him but do recruiting also. My original question remains and its why is it such an easy thing for democrats to cross over or by non-partisan but such a hard thing for Republicans to do? Why is it such a simple thing for democrats to have such loose allegiance? In the eyes of the republican, such people are traitors and cannot be trusted.
    Personally, I cant even grip Koch’s reasoning for supporting Bush. He says that he dismisses all of Bush mis-steps and supports him because of his take on Iraq. Look, even if Bush’ concept for iraq is correct, his approach and execution has been dismal failures. What then is Koch supporting? Is he expecting better things from Bush in Iraq? Is he expecting that Bush will conquer terrorism? What is Koch expecting of Bush?
    How is it the intelligent people cannot recognise that terrorism is simply a term for events that governments dont like. Look at the time when some group of folks blew up a cubana airline just over the Carribean sea off Barbados. Those people were consider freedom fighters to the US government but terrorists to the Cuban government. In this light, it must be understood that terrorism as an act and not a term, will never die. It might subside, it might mutate and it might be rebranded but it will never die because in most cases, its government supported or driven.
    Koch is therefore being very narrow minded and silly to stake his support to bush on such an issue. It makes no real sense and hence leads me to query his level of intelligence and I know I dont enjoy doing that.
    Am I really being led to believe that Bush can do something major about terrorism some time soon? The US as a single nation cannot put a dent in terrorism. This type of activity needs a global approach and its takes the world at large to be interested enough to turn over those who are perpetrating these events. No one is talking, so how are they going to find these terrorists?
    I hope the US is not thinking that Parkistan is working in their interest… that government is simply feeding the US with nuggets to make it appear as tho they are labouring intensely to find someone. They realise that they have the president on a string and they are taking him for the proverbial ride. Pakistan knows that as soon as the big fish is delivered, that US support will dry up and Pakistan then becomes a useless ally again. They will ride this support wave for as long as they can and glean as many benefits as they can until the US turns up the pressure so tight that they simply have to hand over something crucial.
    Pakistan also knows that the government there is shaky and hence they are depending on the US to prop up the president there.
    Its really hard to understand Koch’s stance. He must have been living under a rock in recent times. I cant believe that he has no beef with the domestic issues and is fine with how things are going locally. I guess he is retired, prob. filthy rich, expecting to die soon, so I it prob. does not matter what happens on the local front, so long as he can travel safely and find something to eat and a place to sleep. I really dont grip his take on things and hence I need to be enlightened.
    Its amazing that we get to elect some strange people for public office… very strange people.
    In the mean time, I am still expecting a firm statement from McCain sometime today or during the week. I dont think he can be allowed to crawl under a rock with his tail between his legs and hide at this junction. Its not the worlds fault that he allowed GWB to slam dunk him twice in one life time, under the same terms and conditions. The world cannot be held liable for his inability to see ahead. The people of the US and the world at large would need to hear from Mr. McCain to verify if he will accept and support a president who continues to add shadows to the truth and distort and make fuzzy its usually sharp edges.
    Its time to see how much integrity Mc Cain has, lets see if he will perform like Koch and cross over and be with his good and failthful friend Kerry. This is that same Kerry who demanded, in writing, that Bush aplogise for the damaging issues against McCain in the last GOP primiaries. I am beginning to wonder if McCain is as smart as he lets on to be. My mind is wandering.

  6. Jeff on

    I think the GOP are sunk. Even more so than yesterday. I mean this story is blowing up like nothing I have seen in a while.
    Every paper mentions Kerry’s heroics. I mean he couldn’t buy more publicity. Bush is looking more and more like the ass that he is. All the evidence is pointing back to the White House (a new story today about one of the swift boaters being a paid member of Bush’s election steering committee – the page has since been removed), which makes him:
    a) A liar. He said there was no involvement.
    b) A smear artist.
    Kerry by contrast is:
    a) The war hero.
    b) The victim of the vicious smear.
    How on Earth does this hurt Kerry?

  7. Bel on

    “THERE’S NEVER BEEN a presidential campaign like John Kerry’s. Never has a presidential nominee made his own experience in a war the centerpiece of his campaign for the White House. In 1960, John F. Kennedy didn’t hide his World War II record as commander of PT-109, but he didn’t talk it up either. When asked about being a hero, he mocked the idea and said it stemmed from having his boat shot out from under him. John McCain’s experience as a POW in Vietnam was well known when he ran for the Republican nomination in 2000. But he rarely mentioned it, except to note that his longest place of residence was Hanoi. Kerry is different. His speeches, TV ads, interviews, the entire Democratic convention–all have dwelled on his four months in Vietnam and the five medals he was awarded”.
    The above paragraph was posted by Fred Barnes. The obvious implication is that Kerry is fueling this debate on his vet status and that Kerry is calling himself a hero etc… etc..
    Actually, its not Kerry who is fuelling this but the GOP… and in any event, the country is at war and whoever wins must deal with war and show themselves capable… this being the case, its important for Kerry to constantly highligh his credentials so that those conducting the interview in Nov would give him the job…
    Fred Barnes needs to quit.

  8. Bel on

    Is there really a segment of the US populace that is willing to elect a spineless whimp and coward like george w. bush?
    I mean, the more I review this man’s actions, the more amazed I become. The man knows no shame when it comes to protecting his own hide.
    He reminds me of what native indians are reported to say many moons ago… “white man speak with fork tongue”. These guys must have known George was coming at some point. He talks about not being involved in those ads, no collusion with the swift boat clan…. knowing nothing about the producers and sponsors, admiring Kerry’s record… but when the wash comes out.. there is George in the mix and looking sheepish and silent.
    If George was ever elected in November, I would roll over on the floor and crackup with laughter… because I would know that entire thing is nothing but a comedy of events.
    By the way, where is the woman in his life? Does she really condone all of these things that Bush reportedly does? Is she really and honestly campaigning that they need another four years in the whitehouse?
    Why isnt she advising her husband? Dont women usually create that balance in the lives of their publicly held men? Where is the wife of GWB?
    If she condones his actions, can she really be classified as the first lady? hmmm
    well… McCain is now under pressure… Bush is under pressure.. rove is under pressure…. mcclennan is muttering as usual…. maybe its the first lady’s turn to rethink her position.
    This latest spate of events is just as they should be until Nov 3….. These guys need to be positioned where they need to defend themselves perpetually… never giving them a moment to breathe.. muchless think.
    I still think Kerry/Edwards are doing fine… and things are working.. might not be according to plan… but things are working… they need to keep the momentum up… and I hope they can.

  9. Bel on

    well.. Rove has plenty of individual situations now to handle…. so lets see his tactics at work. I will be watching with both eyes.

  10. Aexia on

    Rove is great at tactics, handling individual situations.
    He sucks at strategery. No concept of how pieces fit into the big picture.
    Remember, if not for the multiple shennanigans in Florida, we wouldn’t be talking about Rove the Campaign Genius, we’d be talking about Rove the Campaign dumbass who sent Bush on a “victory tour” in California late in the campaign.

  11. Peetee on

    Octavo Designs fired one of their
    workers after he protested at a Bush Rally
    in West Virginia.
    Here is the news article:
    Tell them what you think.
    Here is their contact info:
    Octavo Designs
    8 N. East Street, Suite 100
    Everedy Square
    Frederick, Maryland 21701
    PHONE 301/695.8885
    FAX 301/695.0770

  12. Bel on

    you know, its an insult for vets of any war to cross each other. Personally, I feel that vets should remain a brotherhood, a fraternity, never speaking out against each other. Knowing when to speak and what to say… and in such an instance as this, they should speak with their votes.
    Service to one’s country within the military is the highest sacrifice and hence these people should stick together like glue.
    Alas, the botherhood has been broken, the fraternity splintered because of politics. The same institution which makes them give there lives, is the one which splinters them. There is no wisdom here.

  13. Bel on

    Well Ed…
    I sure think that at some point, McCain will have to declare his hand. Its a bad thing to bitten by the same dog twice in the same place for the same reason.
    Your deam is interesting. I am not sure that the nation could handle a fiasco of that magnitude tho.

  14. Ed on

    I heard an interview of Michael Dukakis yesterday, who is 70 years old now buy the way, and he said that Bush better “Look Out” because they tried to cross Kerry on his military record a couple of times in Mass. and Kerry distroyed them.

  15. Ed on

    I had a dream last night that, about 6 hours before Bush gave his acceptance speech, at his convention, McCain announced to the National media that he no longer could support this President and was leaving the Republican party and throwing his support to John Kerry. Bush got so flustered he could not finish his speech and had to be taken off the podium. The convention was a complete disaster.
    A fantasy? maybe not! If this swift boat nonsence can be kept up untill the convention the news media will be so side tracked that the convention will take a back seat.

  16. Jeff on

    Hey guys,
    I think this swift boat thing is turning.
    It’s just everywhere now. But the story is turning negative – against Bush.
    Negative attacks seem to have a negative effect initially against the one targetted by the smear. But after a week or two it turns against the one making the smear.
    Remember California and the “groping” stories involving Ah-nold. Initially, his numbers went down, then he came out (as did his advocates) and called it “puke politics” and blamed Davis. Then Davis got the brunt of the negative press.
    Jeez, every column I read recites three things:
    1) Kerry is a real hero.
    2) Bush is behind these attacks.
    3) This is a smear.
    Kerry played this right. I predict a jump in the polls and a decline in Bush’s numbers in the next week.
    Watch for the GOP to call for the end of these ads shortly thereafter. Just as we go on the offensive.

  17. Maxine on

    It is true that a flyer for the anti-Kerry Swift Boat veterans group was found in a local office of the Republican Party. This happened in Gainesville, Florida and was reported in today’s Gainesville Sun. See link below.
    It was also reported in the same paper today that a local resident complained that all absentee ballots in Florida have the voter’s party registration printed on the return envelope. Another opportunity for mischief?

  18. Bel on

    Have a read on Josh Marshall’s page. The rank and file are coming out and they are talking…. and this is all good.. but there is a need to relentless, accurate, hard and sharp attacking now. Bush has too many skeletons in his closet for him to be allowed to walk around the place to freely. He needs to be called to account and the kerry supporters need to him hard.. and keep him on the defensive… its time.
    Something that I have not heard anyone discuss as yet tho, how can Sen. McCain stick around and support Bush in light of all these nasty tricks and tactics thats swirling around him?
    Everyday someone is coming out and proving that there is something sinister going on in the Bush camp with this Swift boat thing. When is McCain going to dissociate himself from the campaign, considering that tthis is pretty much the same thing that happened to him a few years ago?
    How is he comfortable campaigning with Bush? Is McCain up to something sinister himself also? Is there more in the mortar than the pestle here? How can McCain condemn that adverts in the first instance, is now seeing that the whole thing is unravelling before his eyes… and the wheels have fallen off the cart and still stay onboard?
    Does someone need to call Mr. McCain to account and ask him to verify which standard he is using for public consumption? If before the truth was known, he condemned the ad, how is it now, that he does not give the president a fulll arms length knowing that this entire swift boat trip has the letters BUSH written all over it?
    Is he waiting for his reputation to become tarnished? Is he going to allow Bush to work him over twice in one life time?
    will someone please get McCain on the phone….

  19. Bel on

    I guess there are a few others in the free world who need to new leader. Follow the link.
    Whats with this Clarke guy who thinks that his squad aint sophisticed and are naive? I think his statements are rather derogatory. How does one determine who is sophisticated? What yard stick is used to measure sophistication? How sophisticated should anyone be to answer a question? What kinda credentials does a person have to present to be able to answer a journalist’s question and be sophisticated while doing it? What makes a sophisticated person able to answer a political question?
    Is Bush sophisticated? I have seen him mumble and stutter and stammer and even get upset when answering some questions… Does this mean he is naive and not sophisitcated too?
    This guy Clarke excites my nerves and make them twang in an uncomfortable manner.
    In any event, sophisticated or not.. the guys want Bush to account for his actions. They want to know how he will handle all the blood he has spilled… they want him to run his adverts without them.. that seems pretty sophisticated to me.. and if these not so sophisitcated and naive persons can make such intelligent requests, I wonder what kinda requests will Americans make in November.
    I guess it will take sophisticated and not so naive persons to answer the call in November.

  20. Bel on

    Someone is reporting to have found a flyer of the swift boat thing in a Bush campaign office. Of course one has to wonder about the truth in these things these days and also, whether or not having a flyer in an office is a big deal. Personally, on face value, I dont think its a beig deal.
    However, the real issue is none of the above but more that the DEMS have a prime opportunity to push the bush crew on the back foot and on the denfesive. This is essential as it slows the pace of any developments which might be on the cards regarding the same and other issues. I would hope that the Kerry supporters would look for such issues and blow them to the front of the picture rather than wait for the GOP to highlight their own folly. It may take too long for the next one to come along.
    Of course there is an interesting school of thought that the bush clan is using these events as a diversionary measure. Let’s pretend that they are this smart and have determined to do just this. Stop for one moment and see who is losing momentum just before that convention. If its really a GOP planned diversion, I think they could have done better. Its not going well. There are too many missing “facts”. Too much biting of the lips when critics are responding.
    In any event, its not a real problem. The Kerry clan has been keeping the candidates on the high road from inception and they are still there, coming down only to put in train, a response to the distortions that are being bandied about.
    This situation further highlights the need for Kerry supporters to carry these frivilous issues while the candidates continue to layout a plan for the new america.
    These issues are good for the Kerry crew as it gets Kerry loads of free PR from media houses that were thinking twice about showing his face in front of their cameras or behing a microphone. In this case, kerry is not defending anything, he gets to laugh and casually outline his tenure in Vietnam, while leaving the other side to defend. This is more prefect that can be imagined and I know its working well.
    People give the GOP too much credit for strategy and tact and such. It should be noted by this time that Karl Rove has to be an overblown strategist, along with other memebrs of the Bush camp. If Rove is so great, why did the supreme court appoint Bush and not the people. If he is so excellent, why is the president behind in just about every poll? If the GOP were such great strategists and tactitians, why is it not being paraded in Iraq and Afghanistan and Israel/Palestine?
    Truth be told, they are all a mediocre bunch and hence the reason why NONE of their plans over the past four years can signal any signs of success. God help him who has to clean up their strategic and tactical mess.

  21. Brittain33 on

    That California poll surveyed more registered Republicans than registered Democrats. That’s not particularly accurate for California, which has 3 million more Democrats than Republicans (sorry I don’t know the percentage.)
    I also read that the poll has 28% of African-Americans in California voting for Bush.

  22. Bel on

    Well it seems as tho the terminator wont change the dynamics in CA for this elections then.
    Dems will appear “sissy”, even tho I am not sure that the term means, because they are a very dispersed group of people. They seem to function in a very singular mode and hence, they dont seem to have opportunities for group therapy. The therapy which would be easily derived from meeting as groups would not apply to the average DEM.
    There are no shoulders to cry on, there are no re-juevenation and encouragement sessions. There are no pep talk and pep rallies and group hugs.
    In this regard, you will tend to find DEMS “whining” much more than republicans. The DEMS dont quite know what the other one is thinking, so there is no singular approach to anyone issue, so logistical support is easily lost. The DEMs behave in a nomadic manner, moving, shifting, progressing, developing… etc… etc.. While the GOPs set up camp, have camp meetings, sing patriotic songs, raise a flag.. and someone hits the podium and lays out a pep talk, a sermon… etc.. etc.. etc..
    The day that the DEMs become organised into cells which talk back to a head cell, then the orgnisation will be a formidable force in the US. I guess they are too busy moving to the next issue of life to get organised.

  23. Jeff on

    Democrats can be sissy’s sometimes.
    The Survey USA poll had Bush behind by 2% about one month ago. Then the LA Times and a couple of others showed Kerry ahead by 11% to 12% about one week later.
    I remember polls showing Bush behind by 2% against Gore in the days up to the election, and voila he lost it by 13%.
    There always seems to be polls that come out showing the race closer than it is in California, and Democrats always freak out.
    If Bush thinks he will win California, he should spend money there. Personally, I am not all that concerned about it.

  24. Ed on

    Of course I was being sarcastic about the “Terminator” but He is a bit of a conumdrum. His big backer is and was Warren Buffet who is a big contributer to the Democratic Party and is on record as saying ” the rich don’t need a tax cut and I should know”. Some say the Terminator, if there is such, a Liberal Republican. That is probably one of the reasons he is so popular besides being the “Terminator”. But only time will tell. I don’t know what happened in that poll but California will ramain a Blue state. If not with 55 electorial votes Kerry can kiss this election goodby.

  25. Allan Bartlett on

    As a California Republican, I can you that Arnold is very popular. His most recent approval rating was 67%. It’s unprecedented in modern California politics. Our Democratic legislature is not doing so good. They’re around 35% approval. It definately remains to be seen whether Arnold can translate his approval over to Bush. I would bet that he can swing some of the people, but not enough for Bush to beat Kerry here. I hope I’m wrong. This begs the question though if he actually really wants to try to help Bush or if he would just be content to let Bush twist in the wind out here and not stick his own political capital out there. If he does stick his neck out for Bush and Bush wins then Arnold will have huge leverage on Bush to get some $$$ flowing to the state. We are a huge federal donor state. I think we only get back like 75 cents on each tax dollar right now.

  26. Bel on

    The Terminator…. hmm. Scary guy on screen and off screen. I have not tracked him in recent months but this notion that he will create havoc is perplexing. What are the reasons why you guys think that he will wreck the DEMS apple cart?
    What is his record? Is it just his popularity? What are the reasons why people will use him to support Bush in CA?
    Are the people of CA removed from the failing economy, removed from the travesties in Iraq and Iran? Are they safe from terrorists while the rest of the world is looking over their shoulders? Are the people of CA, happy about the rising oil prices and the higher prices at the pump? Are the people of CA immuned from the lies of the Bush administration? Is CA so far away from everything and sooooo independant that they have not yet heard of Bush’ record? Are they sooo removed from life that they have not yet tasted Bush’ hand?
    I would really love to know what is it about the terminator that he could swing CA for Bush. If rhis could ever happen, then I would really have to start an interview and survey process with CA peoples to see what makes them tick. I dont think the terminator is that heavy but I will admit that I might be dead wrong, seeing as how I have not paid attention to him in recent months.. and I dont have the facts.
    So now I am curious and cant wait to be informed.

  27. joeKelley on

    No, no! It’s real! If the Bush campaign would just spend $40 or $50 million here in CA, they could take the state! Really, they could! I’m very afraid! That Governator, he’s the man! They have a real chance this year! They just need to spend the money!
    Oh no! Oh no! Oh no!

  28. Paula on

    Maxine, I just saw it on their Web site. It has to be an outlier because every other poll in the state has Kerry up by double digits. Remember, there was a poll late in the 2000 campaing that had Bush almost tying Gore and Gore won the state by a large margin.

  29. Maxine on

    Has anyone seen the new survey USA poll (Aug. 18) which has Kerry only 3 points ahead of Bush in CALIFORNIA??!! Does anyone know anything about this? I found it frightening.


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