Bush leads Kerry 48-46 percent of nation-wide RV’s, with 2 percent for Nader in NBC News/Wall St. Journal Poll conducted 10-16-18 by Hart McInturff. (MoE +/- 3.1%)

John Kerry leads George Bush 51-45 percent of Maine LV’s, according to a SurveyUSA Poll conducted 10/17-19.

Kerry Leads Bush 50-47 percent of Ohio LV’s on an ABC News/TNS Poll conducted 10/14-17.

John Kerry leads George Bush 48-47 percent of New Mexico LV’s in a 2-way American Research Group Poll conducted 10/16-18.

Kerry and Bush are tied at 47 percent of NH LV’s, according to American Research Group Poll, conducted 10/16-18.
Kerry Leads Bush 47-41 percent of NH LV’s, according to a Suffolk University/News 7 Poll conducted 10/14-17.

John Kerry Leads George Bush 52-45 percent of Oregon RV’s in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted 10/15-18.
Kerry leads Bush 50-44 percent of of Oregon LV’s in a Tribune/KOIN Poll conducted by Research 2000 10/11-14.

John Kerry leads George Bush 48-43 percent of Wisconsin LV’s, with 2 percent for Nader, 5 percent unsure and 2 percent other, according to a Wisconsin Public Radio Poll, conducted by St. Norbert’s College Survey Center 10/4-13. Kerry’s largest margins over Bush included age 18-24 year-old voters 62-39 percent; Independents 48-31 percent; and women 52-41 percent.
Kerry and Bush are tied at 47 percent of Wisconsin LV’s in a head-to-head American Research Group Poll, conducted 10/16-19.

John Kerry leads George Bush among LV’s in OH +2 and NJ +8, but lags behind George Bush in MO -6, NV -7 and VA -4, according to a new series of polls by SurveyUSA, conducted 10/16-18.

By this I don’t mean that Gallup’s pollsters are themselves racially-biased. Rather I mean that their likely voter (LV) samples–whose results Gallup continues to promote above all others–tend to be racially-biased because of the methodology Gallup employs to draw them.
Here’s a basic sketch of how Gallup’s methodology works:

Gallup asks each [RV] respondent seven LV screening questions, and gives each person an LV score of 0 to 7. [Assuming a turnout of 55 percent], the top 55% are classified as likely voters. In practice that typically means all of the “7”s–given full weight–plus some proportion of those with lower scores (usually the “6”s), who are weighted down so that the size of the likely voter sample matches the projected turnout for the year (apparently 55 percent this year). All other voters are discarded from the sample.

Note that the demographics of Gallup’s LV sample are not adjusted in any way (as their overall samples are) and are simply allowed to fall where they may.
What this means is that if, say, minority voters are much less likely to answer the 7 questions “right”, they will be correspondingly under-represented in the LV sample–perhaps severely under-represented.
That is exactly what turns out to be the case. According to data obtained by Steve Soto over at the Left Coaster, Gallup’s latest LV sample–the one that showed Bush with an 8 point lead–has only 14.5 percent minority representation and only 7.5 percent black representation.
How plausible is this as a representation of the election day electorate? Not remotely plausible. In 1996, minority representation among voters was 17 percent; in 2000, 19.4 percent. In 2004, the minority proportion of voters should be more than this, because minorities are growing, not declining, as a percentage of the US population. So 14.5 percent for nonwhites as a prediction of the 2004 electorate is very, very unlikely. It would defy both recent history and powerful demographic trends.
As for 7.5 percent blacks. C’mon. Blacks were 10.1 percent in 1996 and 9.7 percent in 2000. And they’re 12 percent of the voting age population. There’s just no way in the world blacks will only be 7.5 percent of voters in 2004.
So, in effect, Gallup’s likely voter approach is disenfranchising minorities in assessing American voters’ inclinations on the coming election. That’s wrong and Gallup should stop doing it.
And speaking of disenfranchisement, how about America’s young people? This group is also full of voters who are relatively unlikely to answer the seven LV questions right and thus qualify for admission into the exalted realm of the Gallup LV sample.
Sure enough, Gallup informs us that young voters (18-29) only compose 11 percent of likely voters. Well, that would be quite a trick. In 1992, young voters were 21 percent of voters; in 1996, 17 percent of voters; and in 2000, 17 percent again. And we’re supposed to believe that young voters are all of a sudden going to drop to 11 percent this year? Puh-leeze, this doesn’t pass the laugh test.
As it happens, minorities–no big surprise–lean very heavily toward Kerry this year. But young voters are also Kerry’s best age group this year. Systematically under-representing these groups in Gallup’s LV samples will therefore have an obvious, and fairly substantial, effect on their results, tilting them in the direction of Bush and the Republicans.
That’s not right. Gallup should know better. And we should all know better than to trust results that are based on effective disenfranchisement of large numbers of minority and young voters.

Very bad. There’s a reason why Matthew Dowd pledged his immortal soul to Gallup when confronted with the results of this survey.
And it’s not the horse race result of the survey though that was pretty poor for Bush (45-45 in the 2-way RV matchup). It’s the other results and the poll’s internals that are so gruesome for the Bush-Cheney campaign.
Here are some of the key findings:
1. Kerry leads by 7 among independents.
2. Bush’s approval rating is only 44 percent among RVs, but a truly abysmal 34 percent approval/50 percent diapproval among independents.
3. Democrats are up by 6 in the generic house content (10 points among independents).
4. Right direction/wrong track is 39/57 and a stunning 34/61 among independents.
5. Bush’s approval ratings on Iraq, the economy and foreign policy are, respectively, 42, 42 and 41 (35, 34 and 33 among independents).
6. More voters think the economy is getting worse (34 percent) than think it is getting better (24 percent).
7. Among independents, the Democrats’ favorable/unfavorable rating is 54/35, while Republicans’ rating is 42/49.
8. More than four times as many voters believe Bush administration policies have increased the cost of prescription drugs (47 percent) than believe their policies have decreased the cost (11 percent).
9. By 60 percent to 8 percent, voters believe Bush administration policies have mostly benefitted the rich, rather than the middle class.
10. An amazing 81 percent of independents believe that Bush administration policies have either decreased the number of jobs in the country (55 percent) or had no effect (26 percent).
11. Perhaps even more amazing, 72 percent of independents believe that Bush administration policies have either increased their taxes (27 percent) or had no effect (55 percent).
12. About three-quarters of independents (74 percent) believe the Bush administration did a poor job of thinking through what would happen as a result of the Iraq war.
13. Independent voters are evenly split, 46-46 on whether Kerry has the same priorities for the country as they do, but, by 60-24, they believe Bush does not have the same priorities.
14. Independent voters believe, by 8 points (50-42) that Kerry understands the needs and problems of people like themselves but, by 59-37, they believe Bush does not understand these needs and problems.
15. Independents believe, by 65-21, that Kerry is more interested in protecting the interests of ordinary Americans than in protecting the interests of large corporations; by 69-22, they believe Bush sides with large corporations rather than ordinary Americans.
16. Among independents, just 30 percent believe Bush will make sure Social Security benefits are there for them, but 58 percent believe Kerry will make sure those benefits are there.
17. Also among independents: 65 percent believe the Iraq war is only a minor part (12 percent) or not a part at all (53 percent) of the war on terrorism; 63 percent believe efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq are going badly; and 70 percent believe that Iraq was a threat that could have been contained without immediate military action or was not a threat at all.
18. Finally, 67 percent of voters believe their family is not better off today than four years ago and 75 percent believe the number of jobs in their community has not increased in the last four years.
No wonder Dowd was moved to make his touching declaration of faith in the Gallup Organization. If these CBS/NYT data are on the money, his man’s in big, big trouble.
Oh, and the party ID distribution in this poll? A 3 point Democratic advantage among RVs, very close to the Democratic advantage in the 2000 exit poll.
But I guess that’s another reason why Dowd fled as fast as he could into the arms of Gallup, when confronted with this particular poll.