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Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

SurveyUSA Polls: Kerry has Edge in OH, NJ; Lags in MO, NV and VA

John Kerry leads George Bush among LV’s in OH +2 and NJ +8, but lags behind George Bush in MO -6, NV -7 and VA -4, according to a new series of polls by SurveyUSA, conducted 10/16-18.

9 comments on “SurveyUSA Polls: Kerry has Edge in OH, NJ; Lags in MO, NV and VA

  1. rerdwagon on

    Where does Zogby say Bush is leading? I heard Kerry leading in all battleground. Is it a Texas thing? I looked over the site. I read on Kos that early voting favored D. Can someone find some public data?
    Here are the new battleground states according to Zogby:
    Four New Battleground States
    Colorado – Bush 2000
    Arizona – Bush 2000
    North Carolina – Bush 2000
    Virginia – Bush 2000
    I find that surprising the positive Bush vote reports given the poll trends. NC? VA? In Play? With R incumbent? This is amazing.
    And the real Big Dog is on the case – Bill Clinton in action.

  2. Edward Garratt on

    Excellent news to see OH moving in Kerry’s favor. We get Ohio or Florida, and it’s a done deal. I think the seniors in Florida will break for Kerry giving us the edge their as well.
    It was so hard to see the country clearly in Bush’s favor months ago, praying that people would wake up and see things for what they were. I believe deep down that most everyone believes that Bush mislead the public while he “rushed to war in Iraq”, but that they did not want to fault a United States President for something so horribly wrong. It was almost like they themselves would have to admit they were wrong and partly to blame. Now, with the debates done, people are making decisions for whatever reason they use to justify, but again, deep down, they are voting against Bush because he has lost their trust and can not be trusted as a Commander in Chief.
    Look for a significant shift in the polls after this weekend. I look for one more event to effect this election, hopefully it will be a leak or something that is damaging to Bush and then it’s lights out for the Bush experiment.

  3. Adelaide on

    Point of curiosity. In Zogby today, those who have already voted are 50-48 Bush leading. Where is the majority of early voting going on? Is this significant? Zogby stated that two things that bear watching are this figure, and the newly registered voters being overwhelmingly for Kerry, but I had just assumed that early voting would tend Democratic.

  4. tony on

    I’d add to this list that SUSA shows the Bush lead at only 3% in North Carolina. Their poll from two weeks before had Bush up 7%. Maybe this is another option for an upset…

  5. tony on

    Slate gives a list of 10 states that are the tightest. 4 are Bush 2000 states, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, and Nevada. 6 are Gore 2000 states. Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Maine, Pennsylvania, Minnesota.
    They then give 9 for possible upstates. 5 are Bush 2000 states. Colorado, Missouri, West Virginia, Virginia, and Arizona. 4 are Gore 2000 states. New Jersey, Michigan, Oregon, and Washington.
    Of these last 9, all are described as safe or pretty safe to go the same way as 2000, except WV and Virginia. So…Virginia is starting to get some press. That 4% is pretty remarkable. With 13 EV’s, that would be one heckuva a big pickup. Great news.

  6. Marcus Lindroos on

    From the SimonsWorld blog (via Andrewsullivan.com)
    Interview with John Zogby, who expressed the following views on the election:
    The Running
    * The race is Kerry’s to lose, barring unforeseen events. If he loses, it is only his fault.
    * Why? Because Bush’s numbers have not gone above 48%. Three other key polling indicators are all terrible for Bush amongst undecideds:
    – Presidential job performance: 35% positive versus 60% negative
    – Is the country headed in the right direction? net negative
    – Does the President deserve re-election? 15% yes versus 40% no.
    These numbers have always been net negative for Bush amongst undecideds. The last 3 Presidents with those numbers were Carter, Ford and Bush snr. None won.
    * Another reason: undecideds tend to break for the challenger. Zogby sees them going like in Reagan in 1980, so that the margin is 2% but it is the same in each key state and it is in favour of Kerry, thus the Electoral Vote ends in a decisive victory.
    * A higher turnout favours Kerry. 2000 election had 105 million voters. Anything over 107 million this time and Kerry will win.
    * The youth vote: always heavily Democrat, this time the youth vote are unusually motivated and may turn out in bigger numbers than expected, tipping the race to Kerry.
    * If the focus of the final two weeks is the War on Terror —> Bush wins
    If the focus of the final two weeks is Iraq and/or domestic issues —> Kerry wins.
    * If the result is like in 2000 there will be masses and months of litigation. Neither side will back down and it will be complete chaos, far worse than 2000.
    * Nader is a spent force and irrelevant to the campaign. He does not take votes from Kerry.
    * Voters for Nader would otherwise have not voted at all, so no loss to either side.

  7. Jason on

    I second Greg’s comment. Why doesn’t Virginia get more attention considering the race is as close as other battlegroudn states? I’m biased, of course: I live in Virginia and I’m working to help him win Virginia. But what’s the argument over ignoring Virginia and pursuing Missouri or Colorado?,

  8. Big Dog on

    I’ve heard this before and in other elections. Evidently the kids are reflecting what they hear at home.
    Kids Pick Kerry to Be the Next President (AP)
    AP – Kid power! Democrat John Kerry is the winner, and the rest of the country should pay attention because the vote on Nickelodeon’s Web site has correctly chosen the president of the United States in the past four elections.
    Yahoo! News | October 20, 2004, 11:01 am

  9. Greg on

    Why isn’t the Virginia number getting more attention? If PA and OH are competitive swing states with similiar spreads, why not VA?
    Obviously, given it’s history VA is traditionally more red, but still, I’d love to see the headline “Bush vulnerable in VA”


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