By Alan Abramowitz
Florida and Ohio are the keys to the 2004 election. If John Kerry carries one of them, he has an excellent chance of winning. If he carries both of them, as I believe he will, he is almost certain to win. Instead of just averaging all of the polls, let’s combine them all, based on the actual numbers of respondents in each sample of likely voters. Remember, I’m looking at likely voters here, but Kerry generally does better among registered voters and in this high turnout election, the registered voter results probably give a better picture of what is going to happen. But many polls do not report results for registered voters, so we’re stuck with the likely voter numbers.
Here’s what they show. In Florida, there have been 12 polls since October 15 with a combined n of 9526 likely voters. George Bush is supported by 47.3 percent, John Kerry by 46.3 percent. So Bush is still well below the crucial 50 percent mark generally needed by an incumbent.
In Ohio, there have been 11 polls since October 15 with a combined n of 9034 likely voters. John Kerry is supported by 47.9 percent, George Bush by 47.4 percent. Again, Bush is not close to the 50 percent mark and is actually trailing slightly in this combined sample of likely voters.
With a huge turnout expected tomorrow and with even a small undecided break toward the challenger, we should all be celebrating tomorrow night.

John Kery leads George Bush 50-47 percent of nation-wide RV’s, with 1 percent for Nader, according to the final Economist/YouGov Poll, conducted 10/29-11/1.

SurveyUSA Polls of LV’s conducted 10/29-11/1 show John Kerry and George Bush locked in tight races in the following states:
PA – Kerry leads 49-48 percent
FL – Bush leads 49-48 percent
OH – Bush leads 49-47 percent
AR – tied at 48 percent
MO – Bush leads 52-47 percent

Today’s tracking polls, like yesterday’s, are a mixed bag in terms of movement favoring Bush or Kerry–which is the typical pattern, as Alan Abramowitz has noted. (You can find all the relevant data and links at NowChannel.com.)
Here are today’s results:
Fox 2way RV: 48-45 Kerry, from 47-45 Kerry yesterday
Fox 2way LV: 48-46 Kerry, from 48-47 Kerry yesterday
Fox 3way RV: 47-45 Kerry, unchanged from 47-45 Kerry yesterday
Fox 3way LV: 48-46 Kerry, from 46-46 tie yesterday
TIPP 2way LV: 45-44 Bush, from 47-42 Bush yesterday
TIPP 3way LV: 47-45 Bush, from 48-43 Bush yesterday
Rasmussen: 48.8-47.4 Bush, from 48.1-47.1 Bush yesterday
WaPo RV: 48-48 tie, from 48-47 Kerry yesterday
WaPo LV: 49-48 Bush, from 48-48 tie yesterday
Zogby: 48-47 Bush from 48-48 tie yesterday
Note: Over the last three days, Fox has moved steadily toward Kerry; over the same time period no other poll has exhibited steady movement toward either candidate. It may be significant that the Fox data are the most recent, since they conduct their tracking poll only over the last two days, while the rest do three days, except for WaPo, which does the last four days. Therefore, if there has been pro-Kerry movement very recently (as suggested, for example, by results of today’s CBS News poll), the Fox poll would be more sensitive to it.
Note: At this stage of the election in 2000, Bush was ahead of Gore by one point in the Zogby tracking poll, by 3 points in the ABC/WP tracking poll and by 6 points in the TIPP tracking poll (3-way).
Note: It is not clear which of these organizations have now done their last polls though, based on past practices, we can expect at least Zogby, TIPP and Rasumssen to release their final results tomorrow–but Fox and WaPo may also release results. I just don’t know.
Note: Today’s results, whatever the movement from yesterday, all imply a close election, with results ranging in a narrow band from +2-3 Kerry to +1-2 Bush.
Note: Taking the most common horse race result whereever possible (3-way LV), these polls average 47.8 percent for Bush to 47.1 percent for Kerry. Not an auspicious result for Bush in light of the “50 percent rule“.

Yesterday, two days before the election, CBS News reported a 3 point Bush lead among LVs. That survey covered October 28-30. Today, they released survey data covering October 28-31 which show Bush and Kerry now tied among RVs (46-46) and Bush up by only a point (47-46) among LVs. Since these data only differ from the data released yesterday in the inclusion of interviews from Sunday, that suggests Sunday was a strong day for Kerry in this poll–and, perhaps, in others.)
It’s interesting to note that, in 2000, Bush was also leading (by 5 points) in the CBS News poll released 2 days before the election. But that lead also pulled a disappearing act between then and election eve. History may be repeating itself.

By Alan Abramowitz
1. The National Polls
In the 12 most recent national polls listed on pollingreport.com, among likely voters, Bush is leading in 7 polls, Kerry in 2, and 3 are tied. Average support was 48.2 percent for Bush, 46.7 percent for Kerry, and 0.8 percent for Nader. In the 7 polls that provide results for registered voters, however, Kerry is leading in 4, Bush in 1, and 2 are tied. Average support was 47.0 percent for Kerry, 46.7 percent for Bush, and 0.9 percent for Nader.
Bottom line: Even in the samples of likely voters, Bush is well below the 50 percent mark generally needed by an incumbent. In fact, when Gallup allocates the undecided vote, their likely voter sample goes from a 49-47 Bush lead to a 49-49 tie. In the broader samples of registered voters, Bush is actually trailing in most of the recent polls. With a very high turnout expected tomorrow, the registered voter samples are probably more representative of the actual electorate than the likely voter samples.
2. The Four Major Battleground States
In Florida, there have been 11 polls since October 15. Bush led in 5, Kerry led in 5, and 1 was tied. Average support was 47.5 percent for Bush, 46.5 percent for Kerry, and 1.2 percent for Nader. Turnout in the early voting has been enormous, with a clear advantage for Democrats. Expect a huge turnout tomorrow as well that will put this state in the Kerry column.
In Ohio, there have been 11 polls since October 15. Kerry led in 7, Bush led in 3, and 1 was tied. Average support was 47.2 percent for Bush and 48.3 percent for Kerry. Ralph Nader is not on the ballot. Turnout is going to be enormous and two federal judges ruled this morning that Republican political operatives cannot challenge voters in minority precincts. That was Karl Rove’s last gasp in Ohio. The Buckeye state will go Democratic this year and no Republican has ever won a presidential election without carrying Ohio.
In Pennsylvania, there have been 11 polls since October 15. Kerry led in 8, Bush led in 2 and 1 was tied. Average support was 46.8 percent for Bush and 48.7 percent for Kerry. Ralph Nader is not on the ballot. Pennsylvania looks solid for Kerry.
Finally, in Michigan, there have been 5 polls since October 15, including only the most recent release of the Mitchell tracking poll. Kerry led in all 5 polls. Average support was 44.2 percent for Bush, 47.2 percent for Kerry, and 1.0 percent for Nader. Michigan also looks solid for Kerry.
Bottom line: George Bush’s situation in all four of these key battleground states is dire. His support is well below 50 percent in all of them and he is currently trailing John Kerry in 3 of the 4. A clean sweep of all four states by John Kerry is a distinct possibility.

John Kerry leads George Bush 47-45 percent among nationwide RVs and and 48-46 among LVs in a 3-way contest, according to a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll conducted 10/30-31. The Poll also found that Kerry leads among Independents 46-40 percent and Bush’s approval rating was 47 percent.
Kerry also leads by 3 among RVs and by 2 among LVs in a 2-way contest.

The new DCorps poll finds Kerry leading Bush, 48-47 percent, among nation-wide LVs, with 1 percent for Nader in a new Democracy Corps Poll conducted 10/29-31. The poll also finds that Kerry leads Bush 51-46 percent of LV’s in the key battleground states (CO, FL, IA, NH, NV, NM, OH, PA and WI).

Bush leads Kerry 49-46 percent of nation-wide LV’s, with 1 for Ralph Nader, according to a CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted 10/28-30. The poll also found that Kerry lead among Independents 50-43.
Bush leads Kerry 48-47 percent of nation-wide LV’s, with 1 percent for Nader, according to an NBC News/Wall St. Journal Poll conducted 10/29-31.
Note: RV data were not available for either of these two polls.

John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 48 percent of nation-wide RVs in a Marist Poll conducted 10/31. Among LVs, Kerry has a one point lead (49-48).