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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

National Tracking Poll Roundup

Today’s tracking polls, like yesterday’s, are a mixed bag in terms of movement favoring Bush or Kerry–which is the typical pattern, as Alan Abramowitz has noted. (You can find all the relevant data and links at NowChannel.com.)
Here are today’s results:
Fox 2way RV: 48-45 Kerry, from 47-45 Kerry yesterday
Fox 2way LV: 48-46 Kerry, from 48-47 Kerry yesterday
Fox 3way RV: 47-45 Kerry, unchanged from 47-45 Kerry yesterday
Fox 3way LV: 48-46 Kerry, from 46-46 tie yesterday
TIPP 2way LV: 45-44 Bush, from 47-42 Bush yesterday
TIPP 3way LV: 47-45 Bush, from 48-43 Bush yesterday
Rasmussen: 48.8-47.4 Bush, from 48.1-47.1 Bush yesterday
WaPo RV: 48-48 tie, from 48-47 Kerry yesterday
WaPo LV: 49-48 Bush, from 48-48 tie yesterday
Zogby: 48-47 Bush from 48-48 tie yesterday
Note: Over the last three days, Fox has moved steadily toward Kerry; over the same time period no other poll has exhibited steady movement toward either candidate. It may be significant that the Fox data are the most recent, since they conduct their tracking poll only over the last two days, while the rest do three days, except for WaPo, which does the last four days. Therefore, if there has been pro-Kerry movement very recently (as suggested, for example, by results of today’s CBS News poll), the Fox poll would be more sensitive to it.
Note: At this stage of the election in 2000, Bush was ahead of Gore by one point in the Zogby tracking poll, by 3 points in the ABC/WP tracking poll and by 6 points in the TIPP tracking poll (3-way).
Note: It is not clear which of these organizations have now done their last polls though, based on past practices, we can expect at least Zogby, TIPP and Rasumssen to release their final results tomorrow–but Fox and WaPo may also release results. I just don’t know.
Note: Today’s results, whatever the movement from yesterday, all imply a close election, with results ranging in a narrow band from +2-3 Kerry to +1-2 Bush.
Note: Taking the most common horse race result whereever possible (3-way LV), these polls average 47.8 percent for Bush to 47.1 percent for Kerry. Not an auspicious result for Bush in light of the “50 percent rule“.