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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy Notes

One of these days, when everyone gets tired of yelling at each other about cultural violations, some smart political leader is going to pick up the long-neglected torch of industrial policy, figure out how to sell it to the public and mobilize a majority consensus for a new industrial policy. Meanwhile, it wouldn’t hurt for Democrats to educate themselves about the possibilities. Toward that end, a new book, “Industrial Policy for the United States” by liberal Marc Fasteau and conservative Ian Fletcher is getting some buzz. Consider this teaser from the publication’s web page: “Industrial policy is based on viewing the economy not as one single thing, which is the usual way to view it when people talk about inflation being X% or economic growth being Y%, but as an intricate network of specific industries, some of which are more important than others….The key here is that nations are locked in a ruthless rivalry to possess the most valuable industries. These are not only those important for national security, like aircraft building, but those that generate the highest profits and the most good jobs….foreign nations like China, Japan, Germany, and others use a wide range of policies to grab and hold onto the best industries. For example, they lock America out of their markets with trade barriers, often hidden, to keep the sales for themselves.  They subsidize their exports, overtly and covertly, to build volume and destroy American competitors. They fund not just pure science, but the development of new technologies right down to the factory floor. (Sometimes, they steal technology from us!) They rig their banking systems to build up industry, not financial speculators. (Why don’t we? See Chapter 18.) They don’t try to send all their people to college, but teach them the skills for sophisticated, modern manufacturing industries….Industrial policy is neither liberal nor conservative, and this book is forthrightly bipartisan. Both Trump (tariffs) and Biden (the CHIPS Act) took some small steps in the direction of industrial policy. These moves were a success, but America needs to go much further in this direction and probably will. ​Therefore, this book is the key to understanding how much of the economic agenda of the next 30 years will unfold, what will work and what won’t, and why.”

We can be confident that President Biden will do all that he can in the few remaining days of his presidency to help Los Angeles County recover from the devastation caused by the seven fires which are creating a natural disaster of unprecedented proportions in southern California. President-elect Trump, however, is already using his bully pulpit to blame Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom for the disaster, as if there was something he could do about the freakish weather and ocean conditions that fed the ferocious windstorms. Los Angeles County is the largest County in the U.S., with more than 9.6 million people. Only 10 of the 50 states have more people than L.A. County, and one of them is California. Nobody knows how much money the recovery from this disaster will cost, when all of the recovery expenses are paid, nor what portion will be covered by private fire insurance. But the devastation is so vast that taxpayers will surely pay a large proportion of the final expenses. What Democrats must do is unify against all Republican efforts to short relief aid and foment chaos in L.A. County, hoping that voters will blame California Democrats for Republican failure to fund the recovery. Democrats have always stood for supporting recovery efforts following natural disasters, as a fundamental principle of national patriotism, and now, more than ever, they are challenged to honor that commitment, as they have so often done in red states like Florida.

From “The Federal Reserve Thinks Trump is Going to Make Inflation Much Worse” by Malcolm Ferguson at The New Republic: “Officials at the Federal Reserve are worried that Trump’s policies will cause inflation to rise once again. Recent meeting notes included four separate mentions of the economic impact of changes on immigration, inflation, and trade policy, according to CNBC reporting….“Almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased,” the minutes said. “As reasons for this judgment, participants cited recent stronger-than-expected readings on inflation and the likely effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy.”….Trump has been making broad threats about hardline tariffs against China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as promising mass deportations and deregulation. All of these things are causing the Fed to move carefully….Officials noted that they still expect inflation to get down to 2 percent, but not until 2027 at the earliest.” High inflation, or diminished consumer purchasing power, if you prefer, was the leading cause of Trump’s election victory in November. But soon high inflation will be his to own, and it’s up to Democrats to make sure that happens. it will likely be the pivotal issue of the 2026 midterm elections. If Democrats don’t seize the opportunity, there will be no one else to blame.

In “Sanders doubles down on attacks on Musk over H-1B visas: ‘Dead wrong,’ Lauren Irwin writes a The Hill: “Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is doubling down on his attacks against tech billionaire Elon Musk over H-1B visas, telling him he’s “dead wrong” about the employment visa….In an op-ed published Wednesday on Fox News, Sanders highlighted the ongoing debate about H-1B visas and other guest worker programs as President-elect Trump prepares to implement his immigration plan….The H-1B visa is a temporary, non-immigrant work permit that’s become part of the political debate. …Some say the visa attracts professional talent to the U.S., and others say the program allows employers to hire outside the country and pay workers less than they would if they hired an American citizen….Sanders said that H-1B visas are not intended to employ the “best and brightest” but instead replace American workers with people who can be paid lower wages and people who “often live as indentured servants.”….“If there is truly a major shortage of skilled tech workers in this country, why did Tesla lay-off over 7,500 American workers last year – including many software developers and engineers at its factory in Austin, Texas – while applying to hire thousands of H-1B guest workers?” Sanders wrote.”


No, Jimmy Carter’s Panama Canal Treaty Didn’t Make Ronald Reagan President

I’m sure you’ll be shocked to learn that Donald Trump’s grip on political history is slippery at best. But at New York I went to the trouble of demolishing his claim that the Panama Canal Treaty cost Jimmy Carter the presidency:

In his rambling press conference at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday, Donald Trump said some very curious things, to put it mildly. One claim about Jimmy Carter is just wrong. Following up on his recent threats to retake control of the Panama Canal if Panama doesn’t lower shipping fees and eliminate any Chinese involvement in managing the passageway, the president-elect twice asserted that Carter lost his reelection bid in 1980 primarily due to his sponsorship of the treaty that returned the canal to Panama.

I have no idea where Trump got this idea, but it makes little sense. The Panama Canal Treaty, initially negotiated by Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, was signed and ushered through the Senate by Carter in April 1978. It was ratified by a 68 to 32 margin, with Republican Senate leader Howard Baker playing a key role (conservative icon William F. Buckley was another key backer of the treaty). Yes, the treaty was initially unpopular, but it became less so after its ratification. And while Ronald Reagan opposed the treaty, and made it a campaign issue against incumbent Republican Ford during the 1978 GOP primaries, it wasn’t a big deal at all by 1980, as Ron Elving recently observed at NPR:

“Reagan remained opposed to the Panama deal but ‘noticeably muted his rhetoric in 1977 when the treaties were finally signed by President Jimmy Carter,’ according to Lou Cannon, the reporter and biographer who covered Reagan more closely and for longer than anyone. In President Reagan: The Role of a Lifetime, Cannon reports that ‘Reagan’s interest in the Panama Canal declined after the issue had served its political purpose.’ Cannon has written that Reagan’s pollster told him the issue was primarily of interest to hard-core conservatives. By 1980, Reagan had that category locked up.”

If the treaty had been calamitous for Carter, you’d think he would have paid a big price during the 1978 midterm elections that immediately followed the Senate debate on the subject, but in fact, Republican gains in those midterms were modest, despite a lot of other issues bedeviling Democrats, along with a historic realignment that was already underway in Carter’s home region. Indeed, contra Trump’s assumption that foreign policy cost Carter the White House in 1980, there were plenty of more prominent reasons for the outcome aside from the much-discussed and deeply embarrassing hostage crisis. The economy was in terrible shape in 1980, with an unemployment rate of 7.1 percent, an average inflation rate of 12.67 percent, and average home-mortgage rates of 13.74 percent. That alone almost certainly doomed Carter’s reelection. But aside from that, he had to weather a tough primary challenge from Ted Kennedy; a third-party candidacy from ex-Republican John Anderson that wound up taking away more votes from the incumbent than from the challenger; and an inevitable loss of support in southern-inflected parts of the country following his precedent-breaking win in 1976.

Subsequently Reagan did nothing to unravel the Panama Canal Treaty, and by the time the canal was fully turned over to Panama at the end of 1999 (with Carter present), it was a largely noncontroversial event.

For his own mysterious reasons, Trump clearly wants to inflate the significance in American politics of the Panama Canal issue, past and present. Unfortunately, the main participants in the debate over the Canal Treaty aren’t around to dispute his claims. It’s a shame that Trump has chosen to cast a shadow on Carter’s state funeral later this week by mischaracterizing one of his key accomplishments as a career-ending disaster.


Skelley: The Key Elections of 2025

The following article, “Key elections to watch in 2025” by 538’s Geoffrey Skelley is cross-posted from abcnews.go.com:

The 2024 election may be over, but the electoral hamster wheel will keep on spinning in 2025. In the past, elections that occur the year after a presidential race have often presented opportunities for the party that lost the White House to make gains or hold onto power in places it already controls, and 2025 is no different.

Statewide races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey sit at the top of the 2025 marquee, and Democrats and Republicans, respectively, will hope that recent trends in those states point to success this fall. Meanwhile, Wisconsin will host a race that will determine whether liberals or conservatives control the state’s highly contested Supreme Court. Millions of other voters will also decide on the next mayors of their cities, including the country’s largest city, New York. Lastly, we can already anticipate at least three special elections in the House. Here then is an early look at what’s to come now that the calendar has turned to January.

State elections

Virginia

Virginia’s gubernatorial elections are unique because the Old Dominion is the only state that prevents incumbent governors from seeking immediate reelection. As a result, these races are always open-seat contests that test each party’s strength just a year after the presidential contest — which has usually benefited the party not in the White House. Dating back to 1977, that party has won all but one of 12 gubernatorial contests in the state, with Democrats’ narrow win in 2013 serving as the lone exception. And in each of those contests, the national opposition party has gained ground relative to its statewide performance in the presidential election a year earlier.

This trend could spell bad news for Republican hopes of holding onto Virginia’s governorship. In 2021, now-Gov. Glenn Youngkin only narrowly won by 2 percentage points after President Joe Biden had carried the state by 10 points in the 2020 presidential race. And while competitive, Virginia presently has a blue lean: Outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris carried it by just shy of 6 pointswhile President-elect Donald Trump won nationally by about 1.5 points. All of this could make the GOP’s path to victory even thornier in 2025.

When it comes to the candidates, we already know who’ll likely face off in November — and that history will probably be made. On the GOP side, Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears looks set to be her party’s nominee after another potential contender, state Attorney General Jason Miyares, announced he will seek reelection instead (unlike the governorship, Virginia’s LG and AG posts do not have a one-term limit). Democrats, meanwhile, have mostly coalesced behind former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who announced her retirement ahead of the 2024 election to focus on her gubernatorial bid. Dissatisfaction among Black party leaders with Spanberger’s campaign has left open the remote possibilitythat longtime Rep. Bobby Scott could challenge Spanberger in the Democratic primary. But otherwise, Sears and Spanperger look likely to meet in the general election, which would all but guarantee that Virginia will elect its first woman governor — and first Black woman if Sears can break the commonwealth’s recent electoral trend.

The result in the gubernatorial race could help determine if Virginia will continue to have divided government or if Democrats will claim a “trifecta” — control of the governorship and both chambers of the legislature. All 100 of the seats in the state’s lower legislative chamber, the House of Delegates, will also be on the ballot in November, and Democrats won just a 51-to-49 seat advantage in 2023, so it could be a very tight affair. (The state Senate isn’t on the ballot until 2027, but Democrats’ narrow majorities there and in the House will also have to survive a cadre of low-turnout special elections later this month, albeit mostly in blue-leaning seats.)

Additionally, Virginia will elect its next lieutenant governor and attorney general. Considering the lack of split-ticket voting in recent years, one party is likely to carry all three statewide offices — Republicans swept them in 2009 and 2021, while Democrats did the same in 2013 and 2017. In the lieutenant governor’s contest, Democrats have a crowded field of five contenders, while the Republican race has been slower to develop. Meanwhile, two Democrats are vying to run against Miyares for the AG slot in November: former state Del. Jay Jones, who ran a pretty competitive primary race against then-incumbent Attorney General Mark Herring in 2021, and Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor.

New Jersey

New Jersey’s recent electoral trajectory has whetted Republican appetites for a gubernatorial win in 2025. In 2021, Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy only won reelection by just over 3 points despite being an incumbent in a fairly blue state. Then this past November, Harris only edged Trump by about 6 points, the smallest Democratic margin of victory in a presidential race since Bill Clinton carried the Garden State by 2 points in 1992. Still, with a Republican entering the White House, Democrats may end up facing a friendlier electoral environment come November 2025 than they did in either of those previous elections.

Murphy is term-limited, so the open-seat contest has attracted a cornucopia of candidates, starting with a crowded field of Democratic aspirants. Leading the way may be Democratic Reps. Mikie Sherrill, a Navy veteran who came on stageby flipping a House seat during Trump’s first midterm, and Josh Gottheimer, a fundraising dynamo with a centrist reputation. But four other Democrats are also running: Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, former State Senate President Steve Sweeney and New Jersey Education AssociationPresident Sean Spiller, who each have their own notable backers in state politics. Two November surveys conducted on behalf of Sherril’s campaign and a pro-Sherrill group found her with an early primary lead, but there are many months to go until the state’s June primary.

Republicans may once again turn to the candidate who came close to defeating Murphy in 2021: former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli. He has a mixed record when it comes to supporting Trump, but that’s potentially allowed Ciattarelli to position himself as the candidate who can best unite the party against the eventual Democratic nominee. It’s not immediately obvious who might pose the greatest threat to Ciattarelli, either. Former state Sen. Ed Durr, who upset Democratic contender Sweeney in a 2021 state Senate race, will bring a louder pro-Trump bent to his campaign, as will conservative radio host Bill Spadea. On the other side of Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick offers a moderate and Trump-skeptical approach, which hasn’t exactly been a ticket to success in GOP primaries.

New Jersey’s 80-seat General Assembly, the state’s lower legislative chamber, will also be on the ballot in 2025. However, Democrats won a 52-to-28 advantagethere in 2023, leaving little reason to think that the GOP can possibly flip the chamber.

Wisconsin

But before New Jersey and Virginia vote, Wisconsin will dominate the 2025 electoral headlines. That’s because control of the state’s closely divided Supreme Court will be up for grabs in April. The same was true in 2023, when liberals flipped a conservative-held seat to take a four-to-three majority in the most expensive judicial election in U.S. history. That narrow liberal advantage has already made waves, with the court overturning Republican-drawn state legislative maps ahead of the 2024 election. But the upcoming retirement of liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley will leave open a seat that could determine the court’s upcoming decisions in key cases on abortion and labor rights.

Liberals will hope that recent shifts in the electorate, along with a potential reaction to Trump, can once again give them an upper hand this year. After all, liberal candidates have won three of the past four Supreme Court races, helped out in part by Democrats’ improved performance among voters with a four-year college degree, who are more likely to cast a ballot in lower-turnout contests like these.

And we can expect it to be a relatively low-turnout election because spring elections in Wisconsin have far lower participation rates than a typical November general election. Based on estimates from the University of Florida Election Lab, about 70 percent or more of Wisconsin’s voting-eligible population cast ballots in each presidential election from 2008 to 2024, while at least 52 percent voted in each midterm from 2010 to 2022. By comparison, less than half of the VEP has voted in Supreme Court races in that time period. And even that’s complicated by the fact that the spring election sometimes coincides with high-profile presidential primaries that drive turnout. The highest turnout outside of those years came in 2023, when 42 percent voted.

With this race now only three months away, the candidates are just about set. Although the candidate filing deadline is Tuesday, only two contenders have entered, and each has the machinery of their associated political party behind them. On the liberal side, Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford has the state Democratic party’s endorsement as well as support from all four liberal justices currently on the court. Former state Attorney General Brad Schimel, a Republican who lost reelection in the blue wave year of 2018, has coalesced support on the conservative side via endorsements from all Republicans in the state’s congressional delegation as well as many law endorsement officials.

Mayoral elections

Not to be overshadowed by statewide races, 19 cities with at least 300,000 residents will hold mayoral elections this year. The most notable of these is definitely New York City, the nation’s largest municipality, but plenty of other notable cities will also choose their next executive leader. Among them, Oakland, California, whose voters recalled Mayor Sheng Thao in November, will hold a special election on April 15 that could feature a retiring member of Congress. Elsewhere, an open nonpartisan mayoral contest in San Antonio has drawn a crowded field, while incumbent Democrats in cities like Minneapolisand Pittsburgh are gearing up for potentially tough primary challenges. These races will take place throughout the year, starting in the spring and stretching into the fall.

Understandably though, the New York race has garnered the most national attention. There, incumbent Democratic Mayor Eric Adams plans to seek reelection while facing felony charges for bribery and fraud. While the Big Apple shifted to the right this past November, it remains a Democratic stronghold, so Adams’s future likely hinges on the result of the party’s June primary. A lengthy list of Democrats have announced their intentions to challenge Adams, including the city’s current and former comptroller and four current or former state legislators. However, Adams can’t count on a divided field aiding him because New York City uses ranked-choice voting to decide most municipal elections. Adams came out on top when this system debuted in 2021, but it could make it harder for him this time around.

Special elections

Last but not least, we can already expect at least three special elections for the U.S. House of Representatives early in 2025 due to vacancies in the 435-seat chamber. Two Florida districts will host primary contests on Jan. 28, followed by special general elections on April 1: The state’s 1st District, vacated by Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz, and the 6th District, from which Republican Rep. Michael Waltz will resign shortly. Gaetz announced his resignation when he was nominated by Trump to serve as attorney general, from which he later withdrew amid a frenzy over a damning, now-released ethics report. Waltz, meanwhile, is set to become Trump’s national security adviser. Additionally, the U.S. Senate appears likely to confirm Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik as Trump’s ambassador to the U.N., which would precipitate a special election this spring in New York’s 21st District.

Each of these districts is pretty solidly Republican, so even a special election boost for Democrats akin to what they saw in 2017 during Trump’s first go-round may not be enough to flip any of these seats. Still, these races will get attention because the House is so narrowly divided — in light of these vacancies, Republicans will hold just 217 seats to the Democrats’ 215 not long after the new Congress begins — making their timing and, especially, any surprise results that much more impactful.

Finally, it’s worth noting that neither of the anticipated special elections for Senate will occur in 2025. Upon taking office, Vice President-elect JD Vance will leave behind a vacant seat in Ohio, while the expected confirmation of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as Trump’s secretary of state would create another vacancy. However, the governor in each state will appoint a senator to fill the vacancies, with special elections to fill the remainder of Vance’s and Rubio’s Senate terms not taking place until 2026 (both senators’ seats are next up for regular election in 2028).


MLK Day: A Jan. 20th Alternative for Dems

House Minority Leader Jeffries got a big applause and a lot of media coverage when he told House members that Trump won the election fair and square, and then added that “there are no election deniers on our side of the aisle.” It was an effective comment, and one that shut down the House Republican gloatfest, as Dems rose up to cheer their leader.

Inauguration day, January 20th, however, does present Dems with an opportunity. No, not angrily protesting the inauguration. There will be some of that. But it doesn’t serve the Democratic cause. Just as Democrats are not election deniers, it behooves Democrats to remember that theirs is not the sour grapes party. It’s a bad look and Democrats shouldn’t wear it.

January 20th is also the Martin Luther King, Jr. federal holiday, a day of nationwide community service projects. The King holiday, as enacted and signed into law in 1983, always falls on the third Monday of January, and sometimes that third Monday is January 20th, Inauguration Day, as it will be this year.

So, Democrats who are looking for an alternative to grumbling about Trump’s inauguration, have an interesting alternative: Get involved in the community service projects that are occurring all across America. It’s a much better look for Democrats to  be doing something to actually help people, and to do it in honor of Martin Luther King, Jr.,  than it is for Dems to be whining and grinding teeth on the sidelines.

There is a lot in Trump’s stated plans which merit protest. Those who feel they must protest the inauguration should feel free to do so. But not all of those in the the majority of Americans who voted against Trump are comfortable with going negative on January 20th. It’s kind of like going to an opening day baseball game and focusing on insulting the visiting team, instead of rooting for your home team.

The MLK holiday presents a positive way for Democrats to express their hopes for a better America – to reaffirm their commitment to MLK’s great dream for our country by helping people in need in community service projects. It’s a good look.

Some of the amazingly-diverse MLK Day community service projects undertaken by groups and individuals in cities, counties and small towns in recent years include:

  • Blood donor drives
  • Cleaning up trash in parks and local rivers
  • Collecting food for feed the hungry projects
  • Painting and refurbishing shelters for homeless people
  • Collecting guns for disposal by the police
  • Tutoring kids
  • Planting trees
  • Reading to vision-impaired seniors
  • Yardwork help for people with disabilities
  • Fixing broken playground equippment
  • Running errands for homebound people
  • Shoveling snow for elderly homeowner walkways
  • Collecting clothes for family violence shelters
  • Organizing free medical care clinics for MLK Day
  • Sponsoring teach-ins about MLK’s nonviolence

Such community service projects and many others have been launched on the King holiday every year since the first MLK holiday was observed in 1986. Presidents Clinton, Obama and Biden have all personally volunteered to serve communities on MLK Day. Countless public service organizations and private sector businesses have also sponsored such projects. More multi-racial community service projects are completed on MLK Day than on any other holiday, and Democrats who want to do something positive on January 20th are encouraged to help fulfill the Dream.

There will be mass marches, community breakfasts, dinners and other activities in hundreds of cities and towns all across the nation on the MLK holiday. But community service will always be the heart and soul of this holiday.


Political Strategy Notes

In “Immigration is no longer the key to securing America’s millions of Latino voters. What is?,” Laurie Carillo writes at USC Annenberg Media that, ” According to the Pew Research Center, U.S. births are the main drivers of the growth of the Latino population, not new immigrant arrivals. Getting further and further away from the immigration experience, there isn’t much holding this diverse community together….“The more Americanized the Latino voter is, the more right-wing they become, the more Trump-supporting they become,” Madrid said. “The closer Latino men are to the country of origin, the more they have supported Black and female candidates.”….The Latino population is largely working class. One in five Latino men work in construction. For some Latinos, labor, not immigration, drives their votes….Although the Republican Party has never been known for supporting unions, labor leader Sean O’Brien of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters appeared at the Republican National Convention in July, demonstrating weakening political cohesion among working-class voters….For millions, the prospect of an improved economy was enough to cast a vote for Trump, despite his platform of mass deportation. If a Latino voter is a citizen, and no one in their family is undocumented, a plan like Trump’s might even sound like a good thing.” Marcelino Quiñonez, a former member of the Arizona House of Representatives, said “I’ve heard from folks who are on the ground and working to get out the vote that men would say, ‘Well, I don’t believe everything that Trump is saying, but at least he’s talking about the things that I want to hear about,’” Quiñonez said. “From a campaigning standpoint, people want to feel like, ‘Oh, if I vote for this person, my life is going to change….“We’re often playing the defense, responding to what’s being said about us, and I think what we need to do is really focus on the things that we’re good at,” Quiñonez said. “We need to go back to some of the bread and butter issues.’”

When a politician loses a U.S. Senate race, he or she frequently fades into obscurity, rarely to be heard much from again. In the case of Rep. Tim Ryan, who lost his senate race to J. D. Vance in 2022 and in 2020 mounted a failed presidential campaign, that would be a shame, because Democrats have few leaders who have as solid an understanding of working-class voters as does Ryan. So, when Ryan argues  that “‘Our brand is toxic’: Former US Democratic lawmaker calls for ‘complete reset’ of party after Harris loss to Trump,” as reported at msn.com, Democrats should listen. Ryan may have indeed lost his seat as part of the trend punishing individual Democrats for their party’s sins against working-class voters. “You start with a complete reset. We need a rebrand. I think you and I have been talking about this since 2016, like, our brand is toxic in so many places and it is like, you are a Democrat? That’s the stuff we get like in Ohio. So it needs — we need a complete reboot. We need a complete reboot with the DNC. We need a complete rebranding,” Ryan said, as reported by Fox News. He believed the party hadn’t offered enough to voters in the political middle ground who were reluctant to vote for Trump….Ryan suggested the Democrats should focus on policies that resonate with working-class voters, like reindustrialization and American competitiveness. He questioned the party’s stance against the crypto industry and called for a return to “bread and butter policies.” He contrasted his view with a focus solely on redistribution….“We are going to tax the bad guys who are rich, which we want people to aspire to make money in America. We will tax them because they’re really bad people and we’re going to give you money. No, it is about growing the pie,” he added.” Can Ryan bounce back after losing high-profile elections to win the presidency? Stranger things have happened in America.

We’ve probably seen most of the post-mortems about the presidential election. Now, get ready for the flood of post-mortems regarding President Joe Biden’s term in the White House. Here’s a handy poster meme from demcastusa.com:

 

“On paper, the 2026 midterms should be a good year for House Democrats,” Emily Singer writes at Daily Kos, explaining “How House Democrats are plotting their comeback. “They need to flip just three seats in order to win back control of the House—something they came painfully close to doing in 2024. Democrats fell short this year in the three districts that determined the majority by a combined total of just 7,309 votes….And given that the party in the White House almost always loses seats in the first midterm election, that puts Democrats in prime position to oust Johnson from the speaker’s office….Democrats will have the added advantage in 2026 of being able to run against what is sure to be Republican dysfunction in Congress, as the GOP will struggle to pass its agenda with a historically small majority and fractious caucus of members who love to vote against legislation and refuse to make the compromises necessary to pass bills….”It has become increasingly apparent that many of my House Republican colleagues want to jam big tax cuts for the wealthy, the well-off and the well-connected down the throats of the American people and try to pay for those tax cuts, which will not benefit everyday Americans, by cutting Social Security and Medicare,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said at a Dec. 11 news conference on Capitol Hill….“This is not a hypothetical. It’s not hype. It’s not hyperbole. It’s happening before our very eyes because extreme MAGA Republicans in the House are telling us, publicly and repeatedly, that’s exactly what they plan to do to the American people,” Jeffries warned. “House Democrats are clear we will oppose any effort to end Social Security and Medicare as we know it.”…. Expect to hear that message a lot over the next two years.”


Biden’s Last Hurrah at a Historic Event

As a political history buff I became fascinated with the history of presidential state funerals, and soon realized why Jimmy Carter’s commemoration on January 9 will be unique, so I wrote about it at New York:

There have been 14 official state funerals in Washington for presidents and ex-presidents since the first, for William Henry Harrison, was held in 1841. Until the 1930 funeral of former president (and sitting chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court) William Howard Taft, this particular honor was reserved for presidents who died in office. The upcoming January 9 memorial in Washington for the 39th president, Jimmy Carter, will be the fourth ex-presidential state funeral of the 21st century, but the first ever to coincide with the transition of power from one president to another.

Though President-elect Donald Trump regularly mocked Carter as a failed chief executive, his reaction to his predecessor’s death was surprisingly gracious, and he quickly indicated that he would attend the funeral. And as Joe Biden first revealed back in March 2023, Carter asked him to deliver a eulogy. So potentially, this state funeral will mark President Biden’s last big moment in the spotlight and a bit of a prequel to the second Trump inauguration. While Trump skipped Biden’s swearing-in in 2021, Biden will be present on January 20 to formally relinquish the office to his bitter rival.

It could be a moment of transition soon to be forgotten, but there are a number of symbolic implications that might be drawn from this crossing of diverging paths. This will be the first state funeral for a Democratic president since the one in 1973 for Lyndon Johnson, another Oval Office occupant who, like Biden, was pressured into withdrawing from a reelection bid. Could the 2024 election, like that of 1968, represent the beginning of an extended period of Republican domination of presidential elections? (The first was interrupted, as it happens, by Jimmy Carter’s one term in the White House.)

We can’t know that for a while, but we can likely rule out another possibility: that Trump and Biden will use the occasion of the ceremony honoring Carter to bury recent partisan grudges. They could probably both find something nice to say about Carter without offering much of an olive branch to their contemporary political foes. For Trump, Carter was an outsider who tried to shake up the federal government and his own party, while Biden (who actually supported Carter’s 1976 presidential bid as a freshman U.S. senator) can rightly view himself as a fellow centrist Democrat who was nonetheless a fierce partisan warrior. But Biden will have the unique opportunity to stand behind the pulpit of the National Cathedral and pay tribute to his predecessor in a way that adds a punctuation mark to his own one-term presidency.

One thing both Biden and Trump (and, for that matter, the other living ex-presidents, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama) can agree on is to hope that they will enjoy a post-presidency that competes with Carter’s in length, distinction, and the approbation of his fellow citizens. The 39th president certainly left this world more appreciated — and loved — than he was when he left the White House.

 


Women Gain Power in State Legislatures

Media coverage of the outcome of the 2024 presidential election does not point to a good year for women in politics. Despite widespread anger about the Dobbs decision, Kamala Harris was defeated, while Trump won a healthy majority of male voters. But Harris did win the votes of women by a margin of 10 percentage points, vs. 13 for Hillary Clinton and 15 percent of Biden. However, Harris lost white women voters by a margin of 5 percent.

Looking at the 2024 elections in general, it was a pretty good year for women in politics. As Simone Pathe, Renee Rigdon and Arit John write in “Fewer women will serve on Capitol Hill, but they’re setting new records in the states” at CNN Politics,

While Vice President Kamala Harris fell short of the Oval Office, women in executive office are setting a record – with 13 female governors set to serve in 2025 after the election of Republican Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire. (President-elect Donald Trump’s selection of South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem to lead the Department of Homeland Security, however, could change that.)

Further down the ticket, 2,467 women across the country will serve in state legislatures – more than ever before, according to CAWP. That’s still just about a third of legislators – more than the roughly quarter of Congress that is female – but similarly far short of the 53% of the 2024 electorate that was female.

Further, “94 Democratic women were elected to the House, while 31 Republican women were elected, fewer than the 34 who served on Election Day 2024. Overall, Democratic women far outnumber Republican women in Congress.”

Pathe, Rigdon and John add that “More than half of [state] legislators in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado will be women, as a result of the 2024 general election. And 12 states are in the range of 40%-50%, nearing equal representation….Women are expected to be about 50% of Democratic state legislators, according to CAWP’s preliminary data, but only about 20% of Republican legislators….Three states will have majority-women legislatures in 2025: Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. All of them have Democratic majorities and, as Dittmar noted, they have state-based programs to recruit and help female candidates.”

Looking toward the next elections, it’s hard to sort out the strategic implications of the way women voted in 2024, other than the conclusion that growing percentages of women in state legislatures should eventually produce increased acceptance of women statewide candidates, which is probably good for Democrats. At the presidential level, Harris came within 1.6 percent of winning the popular vote, close, but still a consolation prize, as long as the Electoral College continues to distort U.S. politics.


RIP Jimmy Carter

As a longtime Georgian and longtime observer of the 39th president, I wrote an obituary of the remarkable Jimmy Carter for New York:

Jimmy Carter was America’s oldest ex-president and had by far the longest former presidency. Indeed, his remarkable life — which ended today after 100 years — can be divided into the stretches before (38 years) and after (43 years) he held public office, with a comparatively short stretch of public service (four in the Georgia state senate, four as governor, and four as president, plus a couple of stints of campaigning) between those two eras. While his ascent to the presidency was in many respects astonishing, his record as a politician was at best mixed: He won one statewide political contest in Georgia and lost one, then won one presidential election and lost one. Assessments of his presidency never quite turned positive in hindsight, and for many years he continued to hold controversial positions on the ultimate hot-button international concern, the Middle East. Most recently, the return of inflation in the early 2020s brought back memories of one of the more painful aspects of his administration’s record.

Yet the man always known by the informal name of Jimmy became and remained a beloved figure in his postpresidency, owing in no small part to his dogged efforts to combat such basic scourges of the human condition as war, disease, political corruption, and homelessness.

Carter was born in 1924 on a large family peanut farm near the hamlet of Plains in southwestern Georgia, the son of an experienced farmer and entrepreneur, Earl, and a trained nurse, Lillian, the remarkable woman who eventually found fame by joining the Peace Corps at age 68 as her son ran for governor. He helped in his family’s agricultural and commercial ventures while growing up. (One, which he was later to revive and expand, was wine-making, unusual for rural Baptists at the time.) Though a dutiful son of the land, Carter longed for travel, and after some preliminary higher education, he gained admission to the U.S. Naval Academy in 1943, graduating in the top 10 percent of his class in 1946, shortly after World War II ended. Around the same time, he married Rosalynn Smith, a friend of his sister’s from Plains, and the couple soon began a family that ultimately included three sons and a daughter.

Carter was well embarked on a naval career (notably serving on the research staff of Hyman Rickover, the “father of the nuclear Navy,” whose hands-on taskmaster management style made a deep impression on the young officer) when his father was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, leading Carter to secure a discharge and return to Plains to take over the family farm and businesses. By the end of the 1950s, he was both prosperous and restless, and he became involved in civic and political life. He entered politics at the larger tail end of Jim Crow, when it didn’t take much to get a reputation as a relative liberal on racial matters. Carter quietly qualified by supporting the desegregation of his own Southern Baptist congregation and refusing to join the militantly racist White Citizens’ Council movement when it reached his county. By the time he got to the state senate in 1962 (a judicial intervention aimed at a rival’s fraud forced a second election), he was known as a strong supporter of President John F. Kennedy.

But in Carter’s initial and subsequent campaigns prior to his election as governor, he was hardly a profile in courage on racial matters. In his first gubernatorial bid, in 1966, he cleverly positioned himself between the self-described liberal ex-governor Ellis Arnall and the notorious segregationist Lester Maddox. (I was a kiddie volunteer for that first statewide Carter campaign.) He narrowly missed making a Democratic runoff against Arnall mostly because of Republican crossover votes for Maddox, who was deemed the Democrat that GOP nominee Bo Callaway could most easily defeat. When write-in votes for Arnall forced the election into the legislature under Georgia’s archaic and poorly written Constitution, Carter joined most (but not all) Democrats in casting a party-line vote for the buffoonish racist Maddox. I was shocked to hear my hero’s voice clearly announcing a vote for “Lester G. Maddox” on the live radio broadcast of the balloting, and I did not support his subsequent gubernatorial effort.

Carter barely stopped running between 1966 and 1970, and he confirmed his twin reputations for cautious ambivalence on racial issues and impressive (if cynical) political skills. This time, his principal opponent was former governor Carl Sanders, who had earned the loyalty of Black voters during a relatively enlightened first term. While Carter was quietly wooing some of the same Black civil-rights leaders who would later spearhead his presidential run, his public campaign focused on a populist appeal to white rural and small-town voters who disliked “Cufflinks Carl” for his corporate ties and his racial moderation. Most notoriously, Carter supporters widely distributed photos of Sanders celebrating a victory with Black players from the Atlanta Hawks, the NBA team he partially owned. Carter also went out of his way to express solidarity with Alabama’s George Wallace, who was running an overtly racist campaign in 1970 to recapture power in Montgomery. Carter consolidated conservative white voters and nearly won a majority against Sanders in the first round of primaries, then dispatched the former governor handily in a runoff.

But upon taking office (after a pro forma general-election victory over Republican TV newsman Hal Suit), Carter engineered a sharp left turn on racial issues, making this blunt statement in his 1971 inaugural address:

“I say to you quite frankly that the time for racial discrimination is over … No poor, rural, weak, or Black person should ever have to bear the additional burden of being deprived of the opportunity of an education, a job, or simple justice.”

Thanks to his reputation for quiet decency on racial matters and the strength of his outreach to civil-rights leaders, his campaign demagoguery, not this new departure, was widely viewed as tactical and disposable.

While racially enlightened, Carter’s governorship (limited at the time to a single term) was to a significant extent focused on the dry process issue of government reorganization. He successfully proposed to consolidate 300 state agencies into 22. He made small but politically significant gestures in areas ranging from the equalization of public-education revenues to prison reform and environmental protection.

Meanwhile, like most southern (and not a few northern) politicians in both parties, Carter opposed busing to achieve school desegregation. He nonetheless kept himself in the national political news as an exemplar of “New South” Democratic governors (whose ranks included Dale Bumpers of Arkansas, Reubin Askew of Florida, and John West of South Carolina) who were outmaneuvering the old segregationists of their own party while heading off Republican gains in the region that threatened Democrats’ national viability. They were the first truly “national” Democrats in the South since the party had fully abandoned its ancient willingness to support, or at least tolerate, Jim Crow.

Carter’s astonishing rise to the presidency just two years after a meh single term as governor of a Deep South state was a testament to both his unique positioning in a Democratic Party struggling with realignment and the political skills he and his advisers often showed even as they were being mocked as backwoods rubes. Team Carter exploited the emergence of the Iowa caucuses as a pre–New Hampshire nominating contest and out-organized the field there. He then took advantage of national Democrats’ desire for someone to end the threat of Wallace’s presidential candidacy by securing support for one-on-one contests with the Alabaman in the South, which Carter won with the regionally resonant slogan “Don’t send them a message. Send them a president.” He used crucial support from the Atlanta-based King-family network of civil-rights stalwarts to head off attacks on his dubious background on racial matters and turned criticism of his lack of experience into an asset among voters still furious at Watergate-era Washington. Even his Baptist piety became a selling point among both Evangelicals (who had not yet begun their mass exodus to the GOP) and voters inclined to believe his “I’ll never tell you a lie” pledge.

But it was in the general-election contest against Gerald Ford that Carter’s unique regional political appeal became crucial, as I explained in a meditation on the 2020 revival of the southern Democratic Party:

“[Carter] defeated Wallace in most southern primaries and then gained his endorsement, subsequently putting together a mind-bending coalition of Black and conservative white voters united by regional pride (between Andrew and Lyndon Johnson, no president was elected from a state that had been part of the Confederacy). Carter won every state of the former Confederacy (producing huge swings compared with Hubert Humphrey’s performance in 1968 and George McGovern’s in 1972) except Virginia; he won the border states of Delaware, Kentucky, and Missouri as well as southern-inflected areas of Ohio and Pennsylvania that helped keep those states in the Democratic column.”

It is unlikely that any other Democrat could have won the presidency in 1976, and Carter won by an eyelash. Yet like other regional or ethnic-racial pioneers, his peak of support among the home folks was a thing of the past once he took office. Thus began a troubled four years.

Carter’s one-term presidency had its ups and downs and was rarely stable or predictable. Yes, he inherited a lot of economic trouble from the Nixon and Ford administrations, but his response to double-digit inflation (involving some austerity measures and a lot of austerity talk) divided Democrats, particularly when the Carter administration deprioritized full employment and put in place a Federal Reserve Board chairman (Paul Volcker) determined to use a tight monetary policy to tame inflation, triggering a recession.

This economic turbulence and a closely associated energy crisis (both kicked off by the Arab oil boycott of 1973–74 and a subsequent huge price spike in petroleum products) led Carter to indulge his inner Baptist deacon and sternly lecture Americans about the need for belt-tightening and self-discipline. For one famous week in 1979, he holed up at Camp David summoning advisers and elected officials in preparation for what was later known as the “malaise speech” (though he did not use that term). He struggled regularly with congressional Democrats, who joined with Republicans in sufficient numbers to kill his proposals for a stepped-up federal consumer-protection effort, standby gas-rationing powers, and canceling major water projects he deemed unnecessary. As he had in Georgia, Carter emphasized government-reorganization schemes and did succeed in creating new Cabinet-level Departments of Education and Energy.

But foreign policy was an unusually large focus for Carter as president, leading to some of his biggest triumphs and setbacks. He invested enormous amounts of capital and personal time into engineering the 1978 Camp David Accords, the landmark Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement signed by Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat. (It has, extraordinarily, held for more than four decades.) Earlier that year, after a long, tense negotiation, he secured Senate ratification of a treaty to relinquish the Panama Canal to Panama. Beyond establishing any individual bilateral relationships, Carter introduced human rights as a key consideration in U.S. foreign and defense policy, modifying the strict anti-Communist priorities of his immediate predecessors.

Carter’s interactions with Iran characterized the ambiguities of his presidency, helping him beat Ted Kennedy in the 1980 Democratic primaries but putting an exclamation point on his general-election defeat.

Kennedy had been leading Carter two-to-one in primary polls in mid-1979 when the Massachusetts senator all but decided to run; Carter’s combative streak was engaged, and he went out of his way to tell journalists that if Kennedy ran, “I’ll whip his ass.” But a few days before Kennedy’s official announcement, Iranian student revolutionaries took 66 Americans hostage in Tehran in response to Carter’s decision — against the caution of his advisers — to let the deposed Shah of Iran into the U.S. for cancer treatment. The hostage-taking launched a simmering crisis that did not end until the last day of Carter’s presidency. The international emergency did bolster the incumbent’s public standing, particularly among Democrats, and Carter’s “Rose Garden strategy” of running for renomination without holding personal campaign events worked, at least initially. He won 14 of the first 15 caucuses and primaries (losing only Massachusetts), in part by rebuilding his biracial coalition of support in southern and southern-inflected states.

Kennedy made a comeback in the later primaries, and voters grew tired of the hostage crisis (particularly after a rescue attempt went bad in April) and the country’s chronic economic problems. Kennedy won New York, Pennsylvania, California, and New Jersey, but it wasn’t enough to defeat the incumbent. Still, he didn’t concede until the convention and managed to avoid the traditional arms-raised unity gesture with Carter as the proceedings ended.

Carter had his moments in the general-election contest with Republican Ronald Reagan (and his low points, as when he briefly slipped behind independent candidate John Anderson in the polls), managing to keep the race competitive until late in the campaign despite an assortment of ongoing crises in domestic and foreign policy. There were persistent rumors then and later (and recently, spurred by Carter’s transition to end-of-life care, a confession from an associate of Republican power broker John Connally) of Republican efforts to talk the Iranian regime out of a hostage release prior to the election, but the outcome was probably sealed in any event.

In their one debate, Reagan famously called for voters to make the election a referendum on “the last four years,” and right at the end of the race, Carter’s numbers collapsed. Reagan won by nearly ten points, carrying 44 states.

Although he left office at only 55, Carter never gave a thought to running again. His vice-president, Walter Mondale, won the 1984 Democratic presidential nomination but lost 49 states in the general election, which proved the country was undergoing a partisan realignment. Carter’s strength in the South had masked it earlier, keeping Democratic losses from being much worse. But Carter didn’t brood about his difficulties as president and embraced a simple if robust postpresidential agenda that kept him in good stead for over four decades.

His principal vehicle was the Carter Center, a nonprofit organization created in 1982 in partnership with Atlanta’s Emory University; he and Rosalynn Carter served as co-founders. Its three main international programs have centered on conflict resolution (in areas ranging from North Korea–U.S. nuclear cooperation, to the restoration of democracy in Haiti, to disputes between Sudan and Uganda and between Colombia and Ecuador), election monitoring (in 39 countries), and health initiatives. The center has led efforts to eradicate deadly diseases like Guinea worm and to help diagnose and treat others like river blindness and trachoma. It has also fought to reduce the stigma of mental illness in the U.S. and beyond. In 2002, Carter was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for the Carter Center’s efforts to “find peaceful solutions to international conflicts, to advance democracy and human rights, and to promote economic and social development.” He also continued his work for Middle East peace, leading to the one big controversy surrounding his postpresidential years: allegations that he was hostile to Zionism and to Israel itself, which grew stronger with the publication of his 2006 book, Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid.

Another postpresidential commitment of Carter’s (and Rosalynn’s) involved Habitat for Humanity, a Georgia-based NGO that had long been doing modest work to build housing for the homeless. The Carters began working with Habitat in 1984 and over the years helped it expand its programs to all 50 states and to 70 countries. We’ve all seen those celebrated photographs of Carter framing up walls. During the 1992 presidential campaign, I was having dinner at the Atlanta political hangout Manuel’s Tavern, and I asked a waiter about all the security loitering around a back room. “Jimmy’s back there showing Clinton and Gore how to drive a nail,” the waiter replied; sure enough, the next day, the three men held a Habitat event nearby and nary a nail was missed.

Yet the nongovernmental entity to which Carter devoted the most years was probably the Baptist Church. He taught Sunday school off and on at the Maranatha Baptist Church in Plains from its founding in 1977 as a church that welcomed Black worshippers. As the Southern Baptist Convention became militantly conservative in the 1980s and ’90s, Carter eventually broke any identification with the SBC (especially objecting to its refusal to ordain women as ministers) and became a leader of the moderate spinoff group the Cooperative Baptist Fellowship.

Carter’s legacy as a president and a politician is substantial but not entirely settled. He was prescient in a number of policy areas, notably the search for a comprehensive energy strategy and his strong stance on human rights as a touchstone of U.S. foreign policy. He was also a personal diplomat of great courage and skill. From a political perspective, he was the key bridge figure between the Jim Crow era of southern politics and the biracial Democratic coalitions that followed; the Democratic victories in Georgia in 2020 — including the election of a Black U.S. senator — must have gratified him immensely. But Carter also exemplified centrist and even conservative strains in the Democratic Party that persisted while white Democratic racist politics largely vanished.

What made Carter’s postpresidential career so popular, however, was the simple sense, shared far beyond his own region or party, that he was a fundamentally good man who eschewed riches and power for a more humble path to righteousness.


Political Strategy Notes

Morgan Stephens shares “How Democrats can win back the working class” at Daily Kos: “Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut is calling for a break from the economic neoliberalism of the past. He joins a growing list of progressives who argue that Democrats must prioritize the needs of working-class Americans to stay relevant in today’s political climate of staggering economic inequality….He also highlighted what he sees as a false choice between unfettered market capitalism and socialism, proposing a middle ground: “common-good capitalism.” This vision, according to Murphy, would ensure that economic rules value workers just as much as shareholders and that certain sectors—such as health care—should not be commoditized for profit. “I think that’s the winning argument for Democrats,” Murphy concluded….Democrats like Murphy are right to assume Americans feel economic discontent. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, wealth inequality has steadily increased for those at the top, with the wealthiest 5% of Americans owning a staggering two-thirds of the wealth distribution. Meanwhile, wages have remained stagnant, and home ownership is unattainable.” Stephens adds, “At its core, populism claims the system is rigged against the average, working-class citizen in favor of wealthy “elites.” Defining features of populism are a disdain for the ruling class and a focus on the working class, critiques of government and corporate institutions, nationalism and identity politics, and perhaps, most importantly, an overall sense of economic discontent.”

An excerpt from “New progressive chair says Dems don’t have to abandon trans folks to reconnect with working class” by Greg Owen at lgbtqnation.com: “The progressive movement needs to change,” he told NBC News in an interview on Wednesday before his election to chair the influential caucus. “We need to re-emphasize core economic issues every time some of these cultural war issues are brought up.”….“So when we hear Republicans attacking queer Americans again, I think the progressive response needs to be that a trans person didn’t deny your health insurance claim, a big corporation did — with Republican help,” Casar said. “We need to connect the dots for people that the Republican Party obsession with these culture war issues is driven by Republicans’ desire to distract voters and have them look away while Republicans pick their pocket.”….And he asserted Democrats can do it “without throwing vulnerable people under the bus.”….That response may have been in answer to his colleagues Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) and Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) laying blame for Democrats’ losses in part on Vice President Kamala Harris’ stance on trans rights….Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear also recently backed away from his support of health care for trans inmates — mandated by the Eighth Amendment to the Constitution barring cruel and unusual treatment of prisoners….During the election, Republicans spent over $215 million on attack ads highlighting the Democrats’ and their standard bearer’s support of trans rights.”

If you were wondering “Why Democrats Are Losing Americans Without a College Degree—and How to Win Them Back,” Neil Krauss and Jon Shelton provide some answers at The Nation, including: “The Democrats have been losing white non-college-graduates for some time. But when we consider racial disparities in educational attainment in relation to voting patterns, there is an equally troubling pattern emerging: In 2016, Clinton won voters of color without a college degree by 56 points. In 2020, even with Biden’s over-performance relative to Clinton, Trump still narrowed the gap in this demographic to 46 points. In 2024, Trump closed the gap even further, to just 30 points (and only 24 points in Wisconsin). That’s massive. In 2024, whatever has turned white non-college-graduates off Democratic candidates is now happening for other racial groups, as well. And that’s really bad news for Democrats, considering that the majority of American adults don’t have a college degree….To win back working-class voters—particularly those with less formal education—Democrats must clearly commit to a vision and a narrative that prioritizes meaningful economic security for working people. In 2016 and 2024, Trump capitalized on the Democratic Party’s failure to offer a transformative economic vision for workers, especially for those without bachelor’s degrees….What Democrats must do, instead, is to offer a big transformative vision, and stick to it for as long as it takes to actualize it. Offering such a vision is not as daunting as it sounds. Rather, the Democrats need to tap into their own history of changing the nation’s economic tapestry, through traditions like the New Deal and Great Society, which made them a majority party for decades, to improve the livelihoods of the people who do all the work.”

Krauss and Shelton continue, “Democrats can side with corporate interests, or they can win elections. But they cannot do both…Economic inequality and insecurity are typically framed in terms of inflation, and it’s true, the cost of nearly everything skyrocketed during Covid and never came down, despite inflation’s coming down to normal levels well over a year before the election. But inflation is largely a problem because so many workers have so few mechanisms—like collective bargaining—to ensure that they can keep, or purchase, a larger slice of what the economy produces….Regardless, this election hardly realigned American politics. Remember that Trump was defeated in 2020 after offering absolutely nothing for working people as president. Rather, when we consider the last three presidential elections in tandem (each time the effective incumbent lost), it becomes clear that most Americans are voting, with desperation, for any political party that seems to prioritize their economic livelihoods….Nationally, Democrats must do what they have done in Wisconsin: show up at our union meetings and picket lines and connect economic messages directly to those of unions, so working people can see their livelihoods connected with Democrats. Democratic candidates need to publicly and vocally show up to help organize new workers in unions, too, so we can build a more vibrant labor movement capable of building political power for the long term.”


Why Door-Knocking is B.S.

The following article, “New Year’s Resolution for Democrats: Be Honest and End the Myth that Door Knocking is Real ‘Ground Game’” by Scott Goodstein, Founder & CEO of CatalystCampaigns.com, is cross-posted from scottgoodstein.medium.com:

Once upon a time, in a precinct long, long ago, there was a campaign that built voter contact programs solely from those who lived in the targeted neighborhood. The entire community shopped at the same grocery stores and even saw one another at the bank, gym, and library. In other words, this was totally different from today’s “ground game,” manned by people who drive from hours away, armed with clipboards, shiny new campaign t-shirts, and ready to tell residents exactly how they should vote.

While a ton of articles have been written about the importance of the “ground game” in the final days of the Harris campaign, no one is discussing the increasing problems and decreasing rate of return of this tactic. Time Magazine’s October election article, “Democrats Bank on Ground Game Advantage in Pennsylvania,” opens with the author observing that “most of the people on Elana Hunter’s list weren’t answering the door,” but does not dig into the actual problem. The same is true with campaign analysis in hundreds of other news outlets. The New York Times wrote a lengthy piececomparing Vice President Kamala Harris’ in-house door-knocking operation to the Trump campaign’s outsourced field operation. The article highlights both sides bragging about how many doors they knocked on and how much paid staff was hired. But, neither side (nor the writers) discuss how few people answer their doors or even care what the stranger is selling.

This analysis misses the real problems of modern-day door knocking: Voters don’t open their doors anymore, voters do not know their neighbors, and undecided voters are more skeptical than ever when it comes to talking about politics.

As Democrats, we should know that a last-minute paid “ground game” that gets dropped into the battleground days before an election hasn’t worked in years.

Year-round precinct work with “local captains” who knew their “turf” and how each neighbor would vote disappeared as the campaign industry grew and political parties stopped building traditional ward systems. Instead, they were replaced with volunteers and paid voices that only knocked on doors during major elections. This transition from a known, trusted neighbor to an unknown door knocker has made modern campaigning a data-driven competition that ignores effectiveness as it optimizes toward knocking on the most doors.

Nonetheless, message and messenger still matter in all aspects of campaigns, especially in the field. Door-to-door salesmen are a relic of history (Even the legendary Fuller Brush company started transitioning out of door-to-door sales in 1985).

Public safety studies show neighborhoods are more responsive to community policing programs when public safety officers know the people they serve. Why would political campaigns be different?

Technology has also had a major impact on door knocking. It’s now been a decade since the invention of video door camera technology. According to a 2024 Consumer Reports study, 30% of Americans use video door cameras. These changes in neighborhood dynamics and consumer behaviors are realities that must be faced.

The rite-of-passage, where a volunteer gets lost in below-freezing weather canvassing an unknown precinct or gets bitten by a dog while knocking on doors, needs to be relegated to history. While campaign war stories are fun, it’s time to be honest about the changing times and begin a new chapter: These age-old tactics are neither sacred nor effective. If no one is home or no one is answering their door even if they are home, political campaigns need to change with the times.

To win more elections, target voters with appropriate messages and messengers. It’s time to explore better ways to use scarce time, people, and money to achieve the desired victory. Are there better places to send volunteers to work more efficiently and rally potential voters?

This is not to say that field organizing should be discarded or that campaigns should go completely digital. (Lots of criticism is being written on the current problems with these newer tactics that will hopefully be fixed.) But, as the Democratic Party’s messaging and mobilization are transformed, an honest assessment of all tactics is needed to understand what works and create better ways to win.

Remember, just because a tactic worked on one campaign, it will not always continue to work the same four years later. We have tried this with auto-calling and text messaging technologies and know they have diminishing returns each cycle. Now is the time to dig deep and have honest conversations with field organizers and volunteers to learn what tactics need to be retired and start adopting new approaches.

Let’s stop pretending that more “fake neighbors” door-knocking is the solution to the Democrats’ problems and focus on how to best reach targeted voters with a message that resonates, delivered by respected voices that matter, while we have time now to build a real organic field effort.

As Democrats, we should know that a last-minute paid “ground game” that gets dropped into the battleground days before an election hasn’t worked in years. It didn’t work on Howard Dean’s well-funded 2004 campaign that flew tons of staff and volunteers to Iowa. It’s now 20 years after the infamous Dean scream, and we continue to blindly follow the same failed “orange cap” tactics of these past campaigns: inserting last-minute volunteers and door-knocking teams instead of thinking about how to create long-term community-based approaches.

We all have to grow up at some point and face the truth. Or you could keep believing in Santa Claus and see what gift he brings you in the next election cycle.