If you were wondering what is going on in regard to the venerable tradition of political gerrymandering, read Kyle Kondik’s post, “A re-gerrymander of Texas?” at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, in which he writes: “Republicans will need a lot of breaks to hold their House majority next year. New gerrymanders could be their way of making their own breaks…Ohio is already slated to have a new congressional map next year, and Republicans should have the ability to produce a better map for themselves there than the one currently in place, which has produced a 10-5 Republican edge statewide in its two cycles of use. We might get more clarity on Ohio in August and September, per a report Tuesday from Gongwer, a publication that covers state government…Beyond that, J. David Goodman and Shane Goldmacher of the New York Times reported on Monday night that the Trump White House is leaning on Texas Republicans to pick up the pen and more aggressively gerrymander their state. The Times reported that the Republicans hope to squeeze an extra 4-5 seats out of Texas. In a House where the majority party has only gotten a few seats over the majority-making line of 218 the past three cycles, one could see how an aggressive Republican remap in Texas that succeeds in its aims could decide the House in 2026…Mid-decade redistrictings—which occur when U.S. House district maps are drawn in cycles other than post-census national redistricting years—are a common feature of American politics. However, such remaps in recent years have typically come in response to court rulings: That was the case, to varying degrees, for the five states that drew new maps between 2022 and 2024 (Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, New York, and North Carolina)…Frequent gerrymandering was a feature of late 1800s House politics, according to scholar Erik Engstrom in his history of partisan gerrymandering: Ohio had six different House maps from 1878-1890, and a Pennsylvania gerrymander helped Republicans win the House in 1888. There is no federal prohibition on mid-decade congressional redistricting, although some states do not allow it.” Read more here.
Americans probably don’t pay enough attention to the cost of Trump’s misguided leadership worldwide. But Oliver Willis does in “US approval plummets around the world thanks to Trump” at Daily Kos. As Willis explains, “Since the start of President Donald Trump’s second term, approval of the United States has fallen by double-digit percentage points in multiple countries, according to a Pew Research Center poll released on Wednesday…The drop in global support follows Trump’s decision to insult multiple nations by imposing tariffs on allies—and even threatening military action…In total, support for the United States fell in 19 of the 24 countries that Pew surveyed… “Majorities in most countries also express little or no confidence in Trump’s ability to handle specific issues, including immigration, the Russia-Ukraine war, U.S.-China relations, global economic problems, conflicts between Israel and its neighbors, and climate change,” the Pew report summarized…Support for the United States significantly declines from Pew’s 2024 poll, when President Joe Biden was in office. Notable declines occurred among the closest U.S. allies, including a 32% decrease in Mexico, 20% in Canada, 10% in France, 15% in Japan, and 16% in Germany…Only three nations view the United States more favorably than they did in 2024: Israel, Nigeria, and Turkey. Though support increased by just 7% or less…This loss of global support comes after Trump decided to unilaterally impose tariffs on a host of nations, increasing the costs for businesses worldwide.” But the real cost of Trump’s chaotic policies will come in the months ahead. Stay tuned.
Andrew Gumbel reports that “Troops and marines deeply troubled by LA deployment: ‘Morale is not great’” at The Guardian, and writes: “California national guards troops and marines deployed to Los Angeles to help restore order after days of protest against the Trump administration have told friends and family members they are deeply unhappy about the assignment and worry their only meaningful role will be as pawns in a political battle they do not want to join…Three different advocacy organisations representing military families said they had heard from dozens of affected service members who expressed discomfort about being drawn into a domestic policing operation outside their normal field of operations. The groups said they have heard no countervailing opinions…“The sentiment across the board right now is that deploying military force against our own communities isn’t the kind of national security we signed up for,” said Sarah Streyder of the Secure Families Initiative, which represents the interests of military spouses, children and veterans…“Families are scared not just for their loved ones’ safety, although that’s a big concern, but also for what their service is being used to justify.”…Chris Purdy of the Chamberlain Network, whose stated mission is to “mobilize and empower veterans to protect democracy”, said he had heard similar things from half a dozen national guard members. “Morale is not great, is the quote I keep hearing,” he said.”
“Compared to other states, North Carolina Democrats had a pretty good election cycle in 2024,” Thomas Mill writes in “Who’s voting and who’s not in North Carolina” at PoliticsNC. “While Kamala Harris lost the state by about three percent, the party won five of ten Council of State seats, including the governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. They broke the veto-proof majority in the state house despite the heavily gerrymandered districts, and they held a Supreme Court seat despite Republican attempts to steal it…However, Democrats face structural problems that prevent them from becoming a stronger party. Turnout statistics show that they have difficulty turning out their base voters and their share of registered voters is shrinking. They will need to fix these issues if they want to make the state a bluer shade of purple…Overall, turnout was down very slightly from the 2020 presidential turnout of 75%. Just under 74% of registered voters showed up last November. For the first time in a presidential cycle in over a 125 years, more registered Republicans voted than registered Democrats. For the first time in North Carolina history, unaffiliated voters made up a larger portion than either major party…Turnout among Democrats was 73% while almost 80% of Republicans voted. Despite having the largest block of voters, unaffiliated turnout was only 67%…A look at demographics reveals the structural problems holding Democrats back. Turnout among African American voters, Democrats’ most consistent supporters, dropped two percent from 2020, despite having a Black woman at the top of the ticket. They made up less than 18% of the electorate, down to pre-Obama levels…Republican voters maintained their high presidential year turnout. Turnout among White voters was over 78%, close to their 2020 turnout of 79%. Voters over 65 years old turned out at a rate of more than 83%. Rural counties in the piedmont and west, areas that are predominantly white and older, had the highest turnout in the state with most seeing turnout between 75% and 80%. Most supported Republicans by double digits.”