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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority


Latest ARG Polls: Kerry Leading By 3% in Florida, 2% In Ohio, 3% in Pennsylvania.

The latest polls from the American Research Group, conducted October 23-25, show John Kerry ahead in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Earlier ARG surveys also showed Kerry ahead in New Mexico and Oregon and tied in Wisconsin and Iowa. The complete ARG results are shown below.

  Bush Kerry Nader DK Oct
Florida 46% 49% 1% 4% 23-25
Ohio 47% 49% * 4% 23-25
Pennsylvania 47% 50% * 3% 23-25
Wisconsin 47% 47% 2% 4% 16-19
New Mexico 46% 48% 1% 5% 16-18
New Hampshire 47% 46% 1% 6% 16-18
Oregon 44% 49% 2% 5% 9-12
Iowa 47% 47% 2% 4% 10-12
* Ralph Nader is not on the ballot

The State of the Race With 9 Days to Go

By Alan Abramowitz
There have been 35 national polls released since the first presidential debate, not counting tracking polls. Bush holds an average lead of 1.5 percent in these 35 polls. There is no trend evident. In 19 polls released between October 1 and 15, Bush led by an average of 1.6 points. In 16 polls released since October 15, Bush led by an average of 1.4 points.
Here are the results in the 11 most important battleground states. These are the 11 states identified as the key battlegrounds by the N.Y. Times today.

State (EVs) October polls Mean Bush lead/deficit
FL (27) 14 +0.6
OH (20) 12 -1.7
PA (21) 10 -3.7
MI (17) 7 -4.0
WI (10) 9 -0.2
IA (7) 9 +0.7
NV (5) 5 +5.4
NM (5) 5 -0.6
MN (10) 5 -2.4
CO (9) 9 +5.3
NH (4) 9 -1.7

Based on the average of all October polls, Kerry is currently leading in 7 states with 87 electoral votes. Bush is currently leading in 4 states with 48 electoral votes. In addition to these battleground states, The Times has Kerry favored in states with 190 electoral votes with Bush favored in states with 213 electoral votes. Adding these to the electoral votes of the battleground states in which Kerry and Bush now have the edge and you get the following: Kerry 277, Bush 261.
Obviously, neither candidate has a secure lead in the Electoral College right now–a switch of one or two states such as Ohio, Wisconsin, or Florida could change the picture considerably. But based on this analysis of recent polls in the battleground states, if either candidate has a slight edge, it’s John Kerry. And that’s without even factoring in the expected late movement of undecided voters to Kerry.
(Note: source for national and state poll results is website 2.004k.com.)

Battleground States Results

More from Alan Abramowitz.

Here are the results in the 10 battleground states in which polls have
been conducted since the first debate. The number shown is the mean
difference between Bush support and Kerry support in the polls. A
positive number means that Bush was leading and a negative number means
that Kerry was leading. The number of polls is shown in parentheses.
Colorado: 0.0 (1)
Florida: +2.2 (5)
Iowa: +1.0 (2)
Minnesota: -4.0 (2)
New Hampshire: 0.0 (1)
New Mexico: -1.3 (3)
Ohio: -1.0 (1)
Pennsylvania: -5.0 (3)
Washington: -4.0 (2)
Wisconsin: +0.7 (3)
All of these results are based on three-way contests including Ralph
Nader in states where Nader is on the ballot. All of the results are
for likely voters when available or for registered voters when results
for likely voters were not provided. The source for these numbers is

On Day of Debate, Election is a Dead Heat

Alan Abramowitz reports that “a look at the polls that have been conducted since the first debate reveals a race that is close to a dead heat in the nation as a whole and in the key battleground states. There have been 14 national polls conducted since the first debate. In those 14 polls, George Bush holds an average lead of just 1.1 points.”

New Polls in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Oregon

Bush leads Kerry 48-43 percent among Iowa RV’s, with 3 percent for Nader and 6 percent for neither in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted Sept. 16-19, 2004.
Kerry leads Bush 48-44, with 2 perent for Nader and 6 percent unsure in a poll of Michigan LV’s by EPIC/MRA conducted Sept. 15-19, 2004.
Bush leads Kerry 54-43 percent among Ohio LV’s, with 2 percent for Nader and 1 percent unsure, according to the Ohio Poll conducted Sept. 12-18 by the Institute for Policy Research of the University of Cincinnati.
Kerry leads Bush 51-44 among Oregon LV’s, with 5 percent unsure in a poll by Research 2000 for The Portland Tribune, et al. conducted Sept. 13-16.

Kerry Leads in 11 of 16 Swing States In New Zogby Poll

The Zogby Interactive Poll of LV’s was conducted for the Wall St. Journal Sept. 13-17.
Kerry’s leads (%): Arkansas 0.1; Florida 0.5; Iowa 3.0; Michigan 6.0;
Minnesota 9.7; New Hampshire 3.6: New Mexico 12.7; Oregon 12.0; Pennsylvania 3.1; Washington 8.7; Wisconsin 2.4
Bush’s leads (%): Missouri 5.4; Nevada 2.2; Ohio 3.3; Tennessee 5.5; West Virginia 12.4

Kerry, Bush Running Close in 3 PA Polls

Bush leads Kerry 47-45 percent among Pennsylvania RV’s in a head-to-head race, with 8 percent unsure in a Keystone Poll conducted September 8-15 for Franklin & Marshall College/Philadelphia Daily News/CN8.
Bush leads Kerry 47-44 among Pennsylvania RV’s in a head-to-head match-up, with 1 percent someone else, 2 percent wouldn’t vote and 7 percent don’t know in a Quinnipiac University Poll conducted Sept. 11-14, 2004.
Kerry and Bush are tied at 48 percent of Pennsylvania RV’s in a head-to-head contest, with 2 percent neither, 1 percent wouldn’t vote and 1 percent unsure in an ABC News Poll conducted Sept. 9-12, 2004.