Don’t look now, but it’s already time for the DNC and the states to figure out the 2028 Democratic presidential primary calendar, so I wrote an overview at New York:
The first 2028 presidential primaries are just two years away. And for the first time since 2016, both parties are expected to have serious competition for their nominations. While Vice-President J.D. Vance is likely to enter the cycle as a formidable front-runner for the GOP nod, recent history suggests there will be lots of other candidates. After all, Donald Trump drew 12 challengers in 2024. On the Democratic side, there is no one like Vance (or Hillary Clinton going into 2016 or Joe Biden going into 2020) who is likely to become the solid front-runner from the get-go, though Californians Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris lead all of the way too early polls.
But 2028 horse-race speculation really starts with the track itself, as the calendar for state contests still isn’t set. What some observers call the presidential-nominating “system” isn’t something the national parties control. In the case of primaries utilizing state-financed election machinery, state laws govern the timing and procedures. Caucuses (still abundant on the Republican side and rarer among Democrats) are usually run by state parties. National parties can vitally influence the calendar via carrots (bonus delegates at the national convention) or sticks (loss of delegates) and try to create “windows” for different kinds of states to hold their nominating contests to space things out and make the initial contests competitive and representative. But it’s sometimes hit or miss.
Until quite recently, the two parties tended to move in sync on such calendar and map decisions. But Democrats have exhibited a lot more interest in ensuring that the “early states” — the ones that kick off the nominating process and often determine the outcome — are representative of the party and the country as a whole and give candidates something like a level playing field. Prior to 2008, both parties agreed to do away with the traditional duopoly, in which the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary came first, by allowing early contests representing other regions (Nevada and South Carolina). And both parties tolerated the consolidation of other states seeking influence into a somewhat later “Super Tuesday” cluster of contests. But in 2024 Democrats tossed Iowa out of the early-state window altogether and placed South Carolina first (widely interpreted as Joe Biden’s thank-you to the Palmetto State for its crucial role in saving his campaign in 2020 after poor performances in other early states), with Nevada and New Hampshire voting the same day soon thereafter. Republicans stuck with the same old calendar with Trump more or less nailing down the nomination after Iowa and New Hampshire.
For 2028, Republicans will likely stand pat while Democrats reshuffle the deck (the 2024 calendar was explicitly a one-time-only proposition). The Democratic National Committee has set a January 16 deadline for states to apply for early-state status. And as the New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher explains, there is uncertainty about the identity of the early states and particularly their order:
“The debate has only just begun. But early whisper campaigns about the weaknesses of the various options already offer a revealing window into some of the party’s racial, regional and rural-urban divides, according to interviews with more than a dozen state party chairs, D.N.C. members and others involved in the selection process.
“Nevada is too far to travel. New Hampshire is too entitled and too white. South Carolina is too Republican. Iowa is also too white — and its time has passed.
“Why not a top battleground? Michigan entered the early window in 2024, but critics see it as too likely to bring attention to the party’s fractures over Israel. North Carolina or Georgia would need Republicans to change their election laws.”
Nevada and New Hampshire have been most aggressive about demanding a spot at the beginning of the calendar, and both will likely remain in the early-state window, representing their regions. The DNC could push South Carolina aside in favor of regional rivals Georgia or North Carolina. Michigan is close to a lock for an early midwestern primary, but its size, cost, and sizable Muslim population (which will press candidates on their attitude towards Israel’s recent conduct) would probably make it a dubious choice to go first. Recently excluded Iowa (already suspect because it’s very white and trending Republican, then bounced decisively after its caucus reporting system melted down in 2020) could stage a “beauty contest” that will attract candidates and media even if it doesn’t award delegates.
Even as the early-state drama unwinds, the rest of the Democratic nomination calendar is morphing as well. As many as 14 states are currently scheduled to hold contests on Super Tuesday, March 7. And a 15th state, New York, may soon join the parade. Before it’s all nailed down (likely just after the 2026 midterms), decisions on the calendar will begin to influence candidate strategies and vice versa. Some western candidates (e.g., Gavin Newsom or Ruben Gallego) could be heavily invested in Nevada, while Black proto-candidates like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Wes Moore might pursue a southern primary. Progressive favorites like AOC or Ro Khanna may have their own favorite launching pads, while self-identified centrists like Josh Shapiro or Pete Buttigieg might have others. Having a home state in the early going is at best a mixed blessing: Losing your home-state primary is a candidate-killer, and winning it doesn’t prove a lot. And it’s also worth remembering that self-financed candidates like J.B. Pritzker may need less of a runway to stage a nationally viable campaign.
So sketching out the tracks for all those 2028 horses, particularly among Democrats, is a bit of a game of three-dimensional chess. We won’t know how well they’ll run here or there until it’s all over.
November 3rd
Bush won’t be the only Texas Republican crying for his mommy.
Flabby,
Yes, of course he’s kidding you. God, just how stupid are you? Sad man, trying to pretend you’re a big-time lawyer from a “top 10” school! Wasn’t Gabby Hayes a B-movie pretend cowboy in the 50’s? Made a big impression on you, did he?
Warp did some research huh? That just shows he has as much credibility as Kerry did when he slandered all Vietnam Vets.
See you on Nov 3rd, old man (if you have the nerve).
4 More Years!
Are you kidding me?
BJ Clinton is a 22 year old tub of lard?
HA. Figures.
I’m still going to beat his ass.
A fat virginal goober. HA!
BJ, you’re an even bigger loser than I thought.
GNnaahhrraahhraaaharr,
It amuses me to no end knowing that my monniker is giving l’il BJ a nice red diaper rash. I noticed he still hasn’t answered the call of duty to his country, despite encouragement from many here. I did a little research and discovered the identity of our resident troll. He happens to be non other than Ben “baby hooey” Ferguson, the newest right wing talk show prodigy. You know, this guy.
http://jameswolcott.com/archives/2004/09/baby_hooey.php
“Do you really think that Rush and Newt and Dick Cheney and the rest of them regret that they didn’t serve in Vietnam, that they didn’t do their part for a war they supported and whose cause they still think was just? Do you really think Ben Ferguson wishes he was in uniform fighting for democracy in Iraq instead of plastering his Lumpy Rutherford face on TV?
They have no conscience, they have no decency, so let’s stop fake-pretending that they do.”
Big Mouth BJ
November 3rd Dallas
Your ass whippin
We’ll see who needs diapers when I get through with you.
Don’t wimp out like Bush and Cheney. We all know how you counterfeit cowboys play it. Don’t talk big. Just be there.
That’s a pretty serious accusation, AS. I work at a polling company (actually one of those you cited as reputable), and I’m hard pressed to understand why a pollster would do such a thing. The short-term gain he might reap would be greatly outweighed by the damage to his reputation, which the main currency in the polling business. I’d be interested to know if you have any articles or evidence to back up this claim…
I’m as happy as anyone to see the good polls (for Kerry) but everyone needs to know that Zogby is just completely full of shit, IMO. He’s a total joke among political pros. He’s notorious for “moving” his poll results from sample to sample with creative use of weighting in order to achieve some goal beyond accurate measuring of a race. In other words, he will “make” his results look like the rest of them if he’s an outlier, or sometimes will try and “stake out” new territory briefly in order to get attention, but then revert back to where the other polls are. Don’t even bother with him. If you want a good pollster who is showing the race even, look at Harris or CSM, or even Rasmussen (who is an R, by the way). Zogby’s whole reputation is built on one race, the 2000 presidential, and for all we know he just guessed right on that one. His record since then (and before, for that matter) is so horrible it’s just a joke.
I’m so sick of the LV-RV discussion.
Here’s an idea: Focus on Unlikely Voters. Find them. Register them. Get them to vote.
Step 1. Go offline.
Step 2. Take voter registration cards to places frequented by people unlikely to be registered (hint, poor people shop for food). And REGISTER UNLIKELY VOTERS.
If they say they’re registered, ask them if they’ve moved since the last time they registered. Most likely they will say no. Re-registering will help them find the right polling place on election day.
Step 3. GET THEIR PHONE NUMBER. Call them to remind them where and when to vote.
Quit carping at BJ. Get to work!
Flabby,
Walmart is running a special on incontinence products. You could save a bundle!
4 More Years!
Fee fi fo fum
I smell Matt Drudge’s rectum.
BJ Clinton, it’s you.
Your words come straight from his sphincter.
Zogby was also the most inaccurate major pollster in the 2002 elections:
http://www.mason-dixon.com/news_text.cfm?news_id=158
Zogby Interactive pollees self-select themselves via the web. Therefore, by definition, they are members of the class of people who have computers, an internet connection, and also members of the much smaller class of people who are savvy enough to visit political pollster’s web sites. Probably 90% of these people are in their 20’s. Therefore, his polls are complete bullshit.
Amplifying on that…whoever posted as “tony” at 10:46 is a different person from me. I’ve been posting consistently using tonyjr2650@yahoo.com as my email. This other “tony” is using tonyjr2651@yahoo.com.
So…If anyone is trying to email me, be sure to email me at the correct address. The other tony might well be a troll. And as traffic gets heavier around here, keep an eye out for posters masquerading as others.
And I’ll note that there’s a copycat out there…the tony just previous to this is linked to a yahoo account just a number different from mine….Not sure the point of that.
OK, we’re talking about polls and speeches, but this CBS thing is spinning out of control. It just went to a new level tonight with an admission by CBS that Mapes put this kook Bill somebody in touch with Joe Lockhart (stupid!) — how is the Kerry campaign going to get attention long enough for anyone to know what is Iraq position is?
Sarhento,
Tell the truth.
Were you playing with yourself just now? All those memories about your friend’s dads with their management jobs at insurance companies, got you worked up huh? All those references to getting laid, we’ll we know thats just manly bluster, right?.
You referred twice to the military. I bet that was real hard on you wasn’t it? A man of your, shall we say– sensitivities, surrounded by all those young, virile soldiers. Musn’t ask, musn’t tell!
I bet you lie awake at night, thinking about “kids in dorm rooms” and what a “mature man” like you could teach them. Not that there’s anything wrong with that!
Hey, this is a Democratic site, after all!
4 More Years!
Quit trying to use rational argument with little turd blossoms like “BJ Clinton”. He’s a kid in a dorm — or parents’ house — somewhere. He’s never been near a woman, has never had a girlfriend. Women call him a dork. He’s never served in the miltary, has never been in the company of mature men and is generally an obnoxious little male virgin.
He and his buddies come from homes homes with dads who are mgrs in some insurance company and who somehow identify with people like the Bushies and Cheney and Rove — men who have never been to war — but who are laughing at them as they pick their pockets.
He’s never known what it is to lose a job thru no fault of one’s own with a family and mortgage. He’s never been caught unemployed without health insurance.
He and his friends need to do a hitch has a GI or Marine. Might help if he got laid, too. He might turn into a man in the process. Right now, he belongs in the girls gym.
From TPM:
Investor’s Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor poll out today has exactly the same numbers as Zogby: Bush 46%, Kerry 43% among likely voters. Among registered voters Bush 44%, Kerry 43%.
BJ Clinton,
Did Rove assign you EDM to troll? And how much do you get per post? A nickel or a penny? Enough to buy the new Ted Nugent album?
Has anyone seen Warp Resident?
He apparently has escaped from, er, confinement.
The patient may appear to be disoriented or confused (tertiary syphyllis). This patient is also delusional and will frequently rant about President Bush.
He represents a danger to himself and others, do not try to reason with him! Please call 911 immediately!
Now BJ, don’t talk back to mommy or she’ll have to wash your wittle mouf out wif soap! You’re usually such a good little boy, although you do have some silly ideas. Mommy has to tell you that your all wrong about media bias, sweet feet. Your little friend Georgie who lives in the white house has them all eating out of his hand cause they’re afraid Mean Unca Dick won’t tell them secrets anymore and they won’t have anything for those silly stories they right.
Really BJ, where do you get your ideas?
Thanks — I guess — for the advice on Zogby’s polls. But I think I will continue to put stock in them for a variety of reasons, two in particular: 1) Zogby has a contract with the Wall Street Journal — not exactly a liberal stronghold — for exclusive publishing of his battleground polls. Clearly they don’t see him as a Democratic shill. And 2) Of the 10 polls taken on the day before the 2000 election, Zogby was the ONLY one who had Gore winning the popular vote. Others such as NYT and Gallup had Bush winning by 2 to 7 points. I’ll continue to take all the polls with a grain of salt, but Zogby’s is certainly no less reliable than, say, the respected Gallup, whose numbers are consistently so out of whack its laughable.
Smooth Jazz-
I had had some civil discussion with you at one point.
Yesterday I posted a detailed rebuttal of some of your assertions.
You no longer carry any credibility with me. As I said then, I suspect you don’t care. That lack of care, though, is your loss.
Hey Smooth J..
Have you noticed that in your most recent pots, that you confidence is dipping? You dont seem so confident about a Bush victory anymore. What has changed in recent times?
Mark,
You can’t look at Zogby’s interactive poll – That poll is done by Email to Zogby subscribers only. Since Zogby is a known Lib lover, it’s reasonable to assume his respondents will be disproportionately Dem.
I wouldn’t get too excited over Zogby’s or any other interactive Email poll if I were you, since they look only at a discrete group of subscribers not representative of the ASmerican public as a whole
On the other hand, the respected Battleground poll, run by Dem Celinda Lake & Rep Ed Goes, has GWB up by 7:
http://www.tarrance.com/results.cfm
ROFFFFFFFFFLMMMMMMMMMAAAAAAAAOOOOOOOO,
I’d like to have some of that Kool Aid you Libs are drinking. You’re relying on Zogby, a DNC mouthpiece, whose brother, James, is the head of an Arab American organization and a known Bush Hater.
As for all those who say Zogby is a credible pollster, look at the 2002 midterms: At the time, Zogby had Carnahan (MO), Mondale (MN) and Cleland (GA), all winning – And, guess what, they all lost. Besides, 3 months ago, Zogby said the race was Kerry’s to lose, so it’s in HIS interest to insure his polls back up that ridiculous assertion from months ago.
Hey Libs, Kerry may not even win NY, NJ & MD (staunchly Dem states all), much less any Red state which he has to do to win it all.
The latest Zogby Interactive Battleground poll is out today (link below) and it shows a fairly positive picture for Kerry — more so than many of the state-by-state polls we’ve been subjected to.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-an0920.html?mod=home_inside_today_us
“In analyzing Zogby’s results, we begin by assuming that the District of Columbia and the 34 states that aren’t in the battleground poll will vote for the same political party this November as they did in the 2000 election. From that starting point, we add in the electoral votes from the latest poll, regardless of the margin of error or the spread between the candidates. Mr. Kerry’s 11 states control 125 votes, while Mr. Bush’s five states have 52. Thus, if the results on Election Day match the findings of the Zogby poll, Mr. Kerry would win, 297-241.”
Charley Reese stopped being a columnist for the Orlando Sentinel in 2001. The article quoted above was written in mid-May 2004. I don’t know how conservative/right wing he may be, but he was never for the war.
Paul-
I should have included a link. Sorry.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html
And here’s a link that has updates on state races pretty frequently. It’s the source for the rest of the info above.
http://www.race2004.net/
BTW, I finally finished listening to Kerry’s speech. (It took a long time because I kept having to reload! Did anyone else have that problem?) Indeed, it’s a very good speech. In addition to hitting the nail on the head, I’m wondering whether the mainstream press will note two points:
1) Kerry actually has been consistent. Who would have thought it?
2) Kerry is exercising leadership by continuing to focus on Iraq when the pollster types are telling him to focus on the economy. He knows that Iraq and terrorism (two separate things…) are the most important issues facing us and so he’s willing to take the hard road rather than the easy….
How were you able to get Zogby’s battlegorund states when they are not due to go out until tomorrow, the 21st? I subscribe and i just went on and they are not available yet.
Paul
>>>
I think the question is not whether we want to join the Party of Lincoln, but what happened to that party.
>>>
Thanks James.
You know, people throw around the “party of Lincoln” as if it had anything to do with the Republican party as just about anyone now living knows it. But I tend to think that the birth of the Republican party we now know and love so dearly was really 1912, when the progressive wing of the party of Lincoln party spit off to form the Progressive party with Teddy Roosevelt at their head.
The Republicans ended up carrying two states (UT and VT) that year, the progressives won six and Woodrow Wilson carried the other 40. Sweet.
And just to confuse things further, Mason Dixon has Bush in the lead in Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wisconsin. They do have Kerry in the lead in Pennsylvani and Michigan. Survey USA has Maryland tied!
I know the below is a long post, but after reading all the posts, it struck me that the AMAZING editorial below is why Dems will move back to Kerry’s column, and why there so many reasons to vote against Bush
The following article was just written by Charley Reese of the
Orlando Sentinel. If you know the writer and his strongly
conservative reputation, you should
find it eye-opening. Note in particular what he says about John
Kerry. Other conservative journalists, such as Robert Novak, William
Kristol, and George Will are expressing similar sentiments.
Vote for a Man, Not a Puppet
by Charley Reese
Americans should realize that if they vote for President Bush’s
re-election, they are really voting for the architects of war – Dick
Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz and the rest of that cabal
of neoconservative ideologues and their corporate backers.
I have sadly come to the conclusion that President Bush is merely a
frontman, an empty suit, who is manipulated by the people in his
administration. Bush has the most dangerously simplistic view of the
world of any president in my memory.
It’s no wonder the president avoids press conferences like the
plague. Take away his cue cards and he can barely talk. Americans
should be embarrassed that an Arab king (Abdullah of Jordan) spoke
more fluently and articulately in English than our own president at
their joint press conference recently.
John Kerry is at least an educated man, well-read, who knows how to
think and who knows that the world is a great deal more complex than
Bush’s comic-book world of American heroes and foreign evildoers.
It’s unfortunate that in our poorly educated country, Kerry’s very
intelligence and refusal to adopt simplistic slogans might doom his
presidential election efforts.
But Thomas Jefferson said it well, as he did so often, when he
observed that people who expect to be ignorant and free expect what
never was and never will be.
People who think of themselves as conservatives will really display
their stupidity, as I did in the last election, by voting for Bush.
Bush is as far from being a conservative as you can get. Well, he
fooled me once, but he won’t fool me twice.
It is not at all conservative to balloon government spending, to
vastly increase the power of government, to show contempt for the
Constitution and the rule of law, or to tell people that foreign
outsourcing of American jobs is good for them, that giant fiscal and
trade deficits don’t matter, and that people should not know what
their government is doing. Bush is the most prone-to-classify, the
most secretive president in the 20th century. His administration
leans dangerously toward the authoritarian.
It’s no wonder that the Justice Department has convicted a few
Arab-Americans of supporting terrorism. What would you do if you
found yourself arrested and a federal prosecutor whispers in your
ear that either you can plea-bargain this or the president will
designate you an enemy combatant and you’ll be held incommunicado
for the duration?
This election really is important, not only for domestic reasons,
but because Bush’s foreign policy has been a dangerous disaster.
He’s almost restarted the Cold War with Russia and the nuclear arms
race. America is not only hated in the Middle East, but it has few
friends anywhere in the world thanks to the arrogance and ineptness
of the Bush administration. Don’t forget, a scientific poll of
Europeans found us, Israel, North Korea and Iran as the greatest
threats to world peace.
I will swallow a lot of petty policy differences with Kerry to get a
man in the White House with brains enough not to blow up the world
and us with it. Go to Kerry’s Web site and read some of the magazine
profiles on him. You’ll find that there is a great deal more to
Kerry than the GOP attack dogs would have you believe.
Besides, it would be fun to have a president who plays hockey,
windsurfs, ride motorcycles, plays the guitar, writes poetry and
speaks French. It would be good to have a man in the White House who
has killed people face to face. Killing people has a sobering effect
on a man and dispels all illusions about war.
BJ Clinton,
I think the question is not whether we want to join the Party of Lincoln, but what happened to that party.
It’s really funny now, since now all the old Dixiecrats became Republicans. Ah, the irony…
Bush and his Administration are making Lincoln roll over in his grave.
Billy,
Dan Rather will make that announcement about five minutes after the polls open.
I expect the above named networks to make a full court press in the next five weeks to do everything they can to help Kerry.
No matter, the people have already decided; they don’t like Kerry.
4 More Years!
I can’t wait for election night to watch Dan Rather announce that “CBS has projected John F. Kerry as the next president of the United States” followed by ABC, NBC, CNN……. There will be celebrating all over the world! What a happy day!
That speech by Kerry was PERFECT. It absolutely hit the nail on the head. It was a balanced and intellectually sharp critique of every significant aspect of the Iraq war. It demonstrated message coherence and “common sense” language. It tactfully wove and demonstrated that Kerry’s votes were correct and internally consistent. It demonstrated the obviously flawed thought process and decision making of the current President. (Has it ever been a surprise why the guy was an utter failure in business for so long?) And, politically, it hits all the right groups in a meaningful way. In short, it smelled and tasted like Clinton.
Count me as excited about a Kerry Presidency rather than just a Bush Exit.
Ahhhh Tony.
I share your view 1000 percent. You are so right. Its quite obvious that the person who gets the better poll, gets the news and get the greater impact when it comes to influencing the electorate..
and we know that dems tend to fall apart at the seams when the numbers dip a fraction…
I share you view.. thanks.
The IBD/Christian Science Monitor poll for 9/14-9/18 is out, too. Bush leads 46-43 among likely voters, 44-43 among registered voters.
Bel-
I’m inclined not to weight polls that much. But I think the more polls that come out that show this thing close or Kerry in front, the more it will help keep the Democrats from being discouraged. Which will keep the stories of backbiting out of the papers and the focus on speeches like Kerry’s of today.
BJ.. we are not hiding you in the attic. We are open to your comments but we do it here in a sane manner. You get way too loud and you literally scream… none of that is safe man…
Join us here and help us campaign for Kerry. we are not asking you to commit suicide and believe in Kerry, we are just reminding you that you are wasting a vote if you try to get bush his first elected term in the whitehouse.
We are aware that you agree that Bush is bad for the US and for the world at large. However you seem to get so hyper about your desire to vote for Kerry. There is really no need to function in this manner, join us and do it with some measure of sanity.
Thanks for joining the Kerry campaign BJ.
Like Abraham Lincoln would have anything to do with a latent homosexual punkass mama’s boy with the nickname BJ Clinton.
I expect the Kerry figures to look much better by the end of the week… esp. if he stays on message like he did today.
For the first time in this race, I see just about every writer lauding Kerry for his forceful presentation today. Its interesting that many writers think that this presentation discounts all the meandering that he has been doing in the past on the Iraq issue. I didnt think it would be so easy to erase those thoughts.
If this is then the case, it means that the Bush chatter about changing stances about the war will become of non-effect, in much the same manner that the public doesnt seem to be interested in Bush’s old records.
Its all interesting… but I still stake no claims in polls… nothing beats on the ground campaigning until the Nov 2.
Bel and Mara,
Thank you for hiding me in your attic and not turning me over to the Nazis. Their first instinct is to ban free speech, they hate any dissent.
Hey, you two seem very tolerant for Democrats, ever thought about joining the Party of Lincoln?
Just thought I’d ask.
4 More Years!
Zogby’s battleground report is out, and shows Kerry winning the electoral college if the vote were held today. But, as is always the story, the vote is close.
The best news is Kerry showing a lead that is outside the margin of error in Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington. He leads within the margin of error in Arkansas (0.1%!), Florida (0.5%, and can we trust that one given the hurricanes?), Iowa (3%), New Hampshire (3.6%), Pennsylvania (3.1%), and Wisconsin (2.4%).
Bush leads in the other 5 states, only one of which (West Virginia, at 12.4%) is outside the margin of error. Missouri (5.4%), Nevada (2.2%), Ohio (3.3%), and Tennessee (5.5%) are within the margin of error.
If you’re just tracking improvements, Kerry has picked up 1.8% in Arkansas, 0.2% in Florida, 0.7% in Iowa, 0.6% in Michigan, 2.9% in Minnesota, 1.1% in New Hampshire, 3% in New Mexico, 7.6% in Ohio, 2.3% in Oregon, 0.3% in Pennsylvania, 4.1% in Tennessee, and 0.2% in Washington.
Wisconsin has not changed since the last report.
He has lost 5.8% in Missouri, 2.8% in Nevada, and 3.4% in West Virginia.
Seeing Ohio bounce back into the margin of error is probably the most welcome news, along with the no change (and Kerry leading) in Wisconsin, as well as the continued lead in New Mexico (there’s been no news from there since the last Zogby.)
I’m wondering if it would make sense to add Arkansas to the list of states that Kerry should be pursuing, with (to my mind) Ohio, Florida, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
West Virginia and Missouri are looking less and less attractive.
And obviously defending Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Wisconsin is key.
These results included Nader. Tomorrow, those states without Nader, along with both versions of NC, VA, CO, and AZ.
Oregon Jim, You certainly are nasty piece of work. Hmm, I guess you are getting ready for your butt stomping by Kerry. he he he
I agree with Bel. Don’t ban the trollnuts. It might do them some good to post here, and the level of BJ’s posts speak for itself. He’s lost, poor guy!
Warp resident,
It was really funny the first couple of times, but now its losing its appeal. Talk about projection!
4 More Years!
Nope.. I dont agree that the GOPers should be blocked.. nothing’s wrong with see how the other people think and behave. Surely you can see that BJ needs our help. He is fighting with his conscience and doesnt quite know how to get ahold of himself. This site can help BJ get a proper perspective of life….
BJ will vote for Kerry once he can settle. I hope he doesnt blow a fuse before Nov tho. At his current rate, his blood pressure must be near boiling point. He comes here to gather himself and to calm down.. Let him stay please.
Ruy, why can’t you block these right wing A holes from posting on here?
Now now, l’il BJ, I know you we lost your binket, but we’ll find you a new one, OK pumpkin? Mommy knows what your doing right now sweetums. It’s called “projection.” When you’re older, mummy will tell you all about it and psychology. You’ll be such a big boy then! But first your teeth have to come in…if it helps you can chew on this: it’s those mean nasty Repugs who have ghoulishly exploited fear, from racial hatemongering to their callous utilization of the victim’s of 911 in New York.
I know your gummy gums hurt, but sometimes chewing on tough things like this helps, ok dumpling?
BJ Clinton,
Are there no Republican sites for you to visit? I believe the polls are making the turn – even Rasmussen’s new Electorial College numbers look ok. I too think that Kerry is gaining momentum. And the speech today was terrific.
Are any of you involved with MoveOn PAC? There efforts are very focused and one suspects will make a difference.
Jody
Keith,
Have you no shame! Are you proud of your party that recruits and uses victims of tragedy to advance political objectives? You know perfectly well you are taking advantage of those greiving mothers (just like you tried with 9/11 widows).
Ambushing Laura Bush would make a dramatic photo-op and thats what you want to stage. I know that the Dems believe that the ends justify the means, so do what you do.
Betcha can’t wait to put a microphone in the mother’s face and ask her “how does it make you feel?”
Vultures and ghouls.
4 More Years
18-29yo’s are consistently under-represented in all the polls. This under-representation is presented on a couple of distinct fronts.
1. Cell Phones: A very large number of 18-29yo’s use cell phones as their only phone and have no landline – therefore huge portions of this segment are excluded from polling data. I think if you weight the actual results from this group to compensate, you still risk skewing the results because within the 18-29yo demographic, there is likely a discrepancy of who in that group is more apt to us only cell phones (is it college kids/grads and young professionals who are decisively much more pro-Kerry?). Anyhow, this cell phone issue is likely to make the future of polling increasingly inaccurate and problematic. I think it is really becoming a pronounced issue this election for this demographic.
2. Turnout assumptions: pollsters are making turnout assumptions, assuming that young voters are going to be turning out at rates similar to past elections (or simply pulling turn-out rates out of their asses). I think there is more motivation for younger voters in this election than say in 2000 because of the war and because the bad economy is felt so strongy in this demographic….they cannot get decent jobs, or if they have jobs they are more apt to feel trapped and less optimistic
3. Likely Voter methodologies: If one of the criteria for being included as a likely voter is having voted in previous elections, then any voter in the 18-22 age group is likely excluded. Also excluded are perhaps others who did not feel motivated in 2000, but for the reasons above are this time.
Anyhow, I’m pulling a lot of this out of my ass, but then again it is about as scientific as the methodology Gallup uses.
Zogby has been the most accurate pollster over the past several years and his results are most in line with common sense. His current results also in agreement with the majority of the polls.
Interesting note – even though his current tally isn’t quite as favorable for Kerry as the Pew or TIPP or Harris polls, the internals are MORE favorable for Kerry – he has Kerry with a substantial edge on Iraq, for instance. Bush’s job performance ratings are more negative for Zogby too. The “deserves to be re-elect” numbers are similar to other polls that show the race to be close.
The reason why Zogby’s “issues” numbers are so different from other pollsters is because he has a really useful way of measuring the candidates performance on issues.
Some pollsters ask “Which candidate would do better at X?” Instead, Zogby (if his phone polls are like his internet polls), asks “Who are you voting for?” then asks later in the survey “Which two issues are most important to you?” If more Kerry voters say Iraq is an important issue for them, then it is concluded that voters who care about that issue have judged Kerry to be better at it. Likewise, somebody who thinks Bush is better at Iraq, but doesn’t list that as an important issue doesn’t get their opinion counted on Iraq.
Zogby has Bush WAY ahead on “War on Terror” and “Strong macho, verile, turgid leadership”. On all the other popular issues Kerry has an edge, though usually smaller. That means that Kerry voters are more diverse in the issues they care about and Bush voters only care about the GOP scare tactic issues.
Zogby was on C-SPAN talking about his polling (and his 20th anneversary). He basically said (paraphrased) Kerry’s actually demotivated his base, which is remarkable, becase his base HATES George W. Bush. He is still in a good position to win, and GOTV efforts have a good chance to put him over the top. If young people vote, Kerry wins. If women vote, Kerry wins. If minorties vote, Kerry wins. If single people vote, Kerry wins. If there is an unusually high-turnout overall, Kerry wins.
All the rumor mills (and some of the fact mills) say that voter registration is going through the roof, espescially among young people. So, things are really looking up espescially with the fierce language Kerry’s been using in his most recent speeches.
Ron Reagan talking live on stem cell research on a medical website. My mom has parkinsons so this is somewhat selfesh…but pls. show up & ask democrat questions at the same time. I admire his work! Click my name. the event is live on wednesday but you can pre-ask your questions.
Are Bush hecklers/trolls worse than the Bush supporters who have the mothers of GI’s who’ve died in Iraq arrested at Bush campaign events when they have the temerity to ask Bush’s wife why their sons died?
Bush trolls are like Bush hecklers. It’s the same sad bunch of cybernerds who populate freeperland when they’re not reenacting a civil war battle or gone to a Star Wars convention.
Speech at New York University
http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/speeches/spc_2004_0920.html
Kerry’s is poised for the end game…
Yesterday I posted Kerry/Edwards have solid winning positions on the KEY ISSUES except for Iraq/war on terror. What Kerry has been saying linking the Iraq war cost of $200B to domestic woes is good but still not enough in the eyes of undecideds and potential swing Republican voters.
Well today Kerry delivered on EVERYTHING we’ve been asking him to say on Iraq/war on terror with Straight Talk and and set the stage for the debates. With a great performance I think he’ll attract most independents and enough swing Republicans in the 10 key battleground states to win !
Frenchfries, sweety, it’s jammy-jam time. But first, Frenchy honey, I thought I’d tell you that Zogby doesn’t publish his registered voter info, Ok honeycakes? Now up the stairs, brusha brusha, and to bed.
I’ll sing you your lullaby later, my little gumball.
A quick question on weighting by party affiliation. Is the weighting done only on national party self-ID? That is, does a pollster giving proper weight to party ID use a national average, or does the pollster use a regional or state average? Results in Missouri or Tennessee, for example, might end up very based upon what source is used for the party ID. Any ideas?
Zogby weights by party, Gallup doesn’t. Does Zogby publish RVs for this one? I assume not, otherwise we’d see those #s here too.
In other words, Ruy: You trust the LVs of Zogby but not the ones of Gallup?