An August 18 poll of Michigan voters conducted by Strategic Vision (R) shows Kerry holding his lead over George W. Bush. The survey shows Bush’s disapproval rating rising from 40% to 47% since July 17th.

The News and Observer reports that “In what may be the closest presidential race in the state since 1992, Democrat John Kerry is within 3 percentage points of President Bush in a new poll”.

A Monday August 16, 2004 Rasmussen Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 48% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 47%. Kerry has been at 47% or 48% for ten of the last twelve days. Bush has been at 45% or 46% for eight of those days. In fact, the President has been at 45% or 46% for 22 of the last 26 days.

An August 11th American Research Group survey of 600 respondents shows Kerry 3 points ahead of George W. Bush. The survey also shows Bush’s favorability rating declining from 48% to 41% during the period from June 23 to August 11th while John Kerry’s favorability rating increased from 48% to 51%.

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry is favored over President George W. Bush (47%-43%) among likely voters when Ralph Nader, Libertarian, Constitution and Green Party presidential candidates are factored into the 2004 presidential race, according to a new Zogby America poll.
The presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards gained two points since the Democratic National convention over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney and now leads by seven points (50%-43%).

A poll released on August 12th by The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press reports “With Bush holding the advantage on most personal qualities and Kerry on most issues, the horse race itself is about as deadlocked as it was prior to the Democratic Convention, with 47% of registered voters favoring the Kerry/Edwards ticket, and 45% favoring Bush and Cheney. Just 2% say they would vote for Nader if the election were being held today.”

According to a nation-wide Gallup Poll reported on August 13th, “Among all registered voters, the race is just a one-point difference, with Bush at 48% and Kerry at 47%. The late July/early August poll had each candidate at 48%.
If independent Ralph Nader is included in the ballot, Bush receives 48% among likely voters, Kerry 46%, and Nader 3%. Among registered voters, Bush still has a one-point lead over Kerry, 46% to 45%, and Nader gets 5%.”

An Epic/MRA poll of “active voters” conducted from August 4-10 reports a 49-42 advantage for John Kerry in Michigan, with 3 percent for Nader, and 6 percent “unsure.”

John Kerry leads George Bush among Hawaii’s registered voters 48-41 in a SMS Research poll conducted July 28-August 3rd for the Honolulu Star-Bulletin and KITV.

Along with the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey released August 9th, Democracy Corps has also released a strategy paper by Stan Greenberg and James Carville.
The paper, titled “From Small Bounce to Big Opportunity” examines Kerry’s post-convention gains on personal characteristics and national security issues and points to ways the campaign can use the theme of “Strength at Home” to address both national security and economic issues, where Kerry has not yet won all the support that he has the potential to attract.