As GOP Senate leaders prepare to deploy their “nuclear option,” a new Wall St. Journal/NBC News poll indicates that discontent with congress is approaching stratospheric proportions. The poll, conducted May 12-16, indicates that 65 percent of respondents agree that congress does not share their priorities, while only 17 percent of those polled say it does. As WSJ reporter John Harwood, puts it in his wrap-up of the poll’s results:

While the survey contains warning signs for members of both parties, it is especially problematic for Republicans as the party in power at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. The poll of 1,005 adults, conducted May 12-16, shows that the greatest erosion in congressional approval has occurred among self-described Republicans.

Harwood points out that, when asked “which party they want to control Congress after the 2006 elections, Democrats hold a 47%-40% edge — the party’s best showing since the Journal/NBC survey began asking that question in 1994.”
There’s much more in this poll that bodes ill for the white house and the GOP, especially with respect to the growing discontent of senior citizens, a key constituency, which Republican pollster Bill McInturff says “disproportionately turns out to vote in mid-term elections.”
With a little luck — and a lot of hard work — 2006 could be the year of the donkey.

It’s a long way to November ’06, and a lot can happen between now and then to make predictions look silly. But if Democrats are serious about regaining control of congress, it’s time to focus energies on the strategy that can win and the work that needs to be done to make it happen.
For an expert analysis of the struggle to win control of the House of Representatives, no better place to begin than Alan Abramowitz’s EDM post “Seven Potentially Vulnerable GOP Incumbents.” WaPo columnist Terry Neal has a pretty good wrap-up of the challenges Dems face in winning back congress in “Political Horse Race Season Opens.” Neal transposed his numbers in counting the respective Senate seats defended by the Dems and Republicans. The correct figures are 17 Senate seats being defended by Democrats and 15 being defended by the GOP, according to the Senate’s webpage list. As a practical matter, Dems also must defend the Senate seat of retiring Independent Jim Jeffords, who votes with Dems.
An 18-15 Democratic disadvantage in seats to defend could spread Dem resources a little thin, and regaining control of the Senate will be a tough challenge. Yet historically, the party of the sitting President has lost an average of 6 Senate seats in off-year elections, and Dems have increasing grounds for optimism. As Neal quotes Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Phil Singer:

“I’m not going to say we’re going to win back the Senate but we feel pretty confident about picking up seats,” Singer said. “With [House Majority Leader Tom] DeLay’s issues, and [lobbyist Jack] Abramoff, and Social Security, there’s a general discontent about the way Republicans are running Congress, and we’re waiting for a wave to emerge.”

Republicans, who enjoy a 55-44-1 majority, are already talking up their prospects for a net gain in the ’06 Senate races. For a look at the conservative take on the ’06 Senate races, read John J. Miller’s round-up “Springtime for Senators” in the National Review. Miller’s article has some interesting inside details about 25 of the 33 Senate races. As might be expected, however, Miller is a smidge over-optimistic about GOP prospects, particularly in Rhode Island, Maryland and Ohio, where Dems will run strong.
There’s no denying the GOP has a formidable advantage in 3 fewer seats to defend in ’06, and a net gain of 7 seats to regain control of the Senate is an ambitious goal for Dems. But polls are tilting nicely in the Dems’ favor, issues are breaking our way and the downside of one-party rule is becomming more painfully obvious every day.

Daily Kos has an encouraging wrap-up of poll results evaluating the performance of Democratic Governors, vs. their GOP counterparts. Kos bases his wrap-up on SurveyUSA’s just-posted list of recent approval ratings for Governors of the 50 states. Kos quotes Chris Bowers of MyDD on the Govs’ respective approval/disapproval ratings:

The 22 Democratic Governors have a slightly higher approval rating than the 28 Republican Governors. The average Democratic approval rating is 49, with 39.5 disapproval. The average Republican rating is 47.9 approval, and 41.4 disapproval.

Even better, Bowers says:

Most potential Republican Presidential candidates look terrible. Bush (FL) is at 49/46, Romney (MA) is at 41/51, Barbour (MS) is at 37/55, and Pataki (NY) is at 36/56. Barbour is particularly toxic, considering how conservative Mississippi is… Even Schwarzenegger is at 40/56, and looking very vulnerable.

Bowers points out that, with the exceptions of Christine Gregoire of Washington and Oregon’s Ted Kulongoski, whose approval numbers are way down, western Democratic Governors are doing particularly well, with a 59/30 average:

Freudenthal (WY) is at 67/20, Napolitano (AZ) is at 59/32, Henry (OK) is at 59/30, Schweitzer (MT) is at 58/27, Sebelius (KS) is at 54/34, and Richardson (NM) is at 54/39.

Considering that Governors have historically been the more successful presidential candidates, the polls come as especially good news as Dems look to 2008.

A recently-released Washington Post/ABC News Poll reveals overwhelming public opposition to the GOP ‘Nuclear Option’ for confirming federal judicial nominees. The Poll, conducted on 4/24, indicated that 66 percent of respondents oppose “changing senate rules to make it easier” for Republicans to confirm Bush’s judicial nominees, while only 26 percent said they supported the proposal.
Informed that the Senate confirmed 35 of President Bush’s federal appeals court nominees, while Senate Democrats blocked 10 of them, 48 percent of the poll’s respondents said that Democrats were right to block the nominations, while 36 percent said they were wrong.

It appears that Democratic Party campaign strategists can now add Tom DeLay’s District to the list of possible wins in ’06. In his article “DeLay of the Land: Home Invasion,” in The New Republic, senior editor John Judis argues that changing demographics and a growing number of Republicans disenchanted with DeLay’s ethics problems and his pandering to religious extremists give Democrats a solid shot at winning DeLay’s house seat in ’06. Judis, co-author with Ruy Teixeira of The Emerging Democratic Majority, describes the dynamics of DeLay’s district:

DeLay’s 22nd district, which he designed in a 2003 redistricting effort that aimed to net seven more Republican seats in Texas, has also begun to change in ways that will not benefit an outspoken Christian conservative like himself. When DeLay first won office, the district was predominately white, with a few pockets of black voters. Because the area’s population has ballooned 18 percent since the 2000 census, there are no dependable figures about the district’s overall composition, but both Republican and Democratic leaders agree that, without losing its high levels of wealth and education, it is becoming a “majority-minority” district, in which whites are outnumbered by other ethnic groups. Latinos and blacks moved into the district in the late ’80s. And, in the ’90s, middle-class Indians, Pakistanis, Vietnamese, and Chinese immigrants began to pour in. Two Hindu temples now vie for attention with the Baptist megachurches.
Extrapolating from the census would put the African American population at about 10 percent, Latinos at over 20 percent, and the Asian population at close to 15 percent. The results in Fort Bend County are even more dramatic. In 1980, the area’s public schools, which attract all the area’s children, were 64 percent white, 16 percent black, 17 percent Latino, and 3 percent Asian. Today, they are 29 percent white, 31 percent black, 21 percent Latino, and 19 percent Asian.

Judis notes that DeLay received only 55 percent of the vote in his district in 2004 after outspending his relatively unknown Democratic opponent 5-1. The politics of demographic reallighnment in the 22nd offer hope that Delay’s excesses will translate into a Democratic 22nd district: As Judis points out:

Most of the black and Latino voters are Democrats…But the Asian vote is more complex. The Indians are the most Democratic. The Pakistanis used to be Republican, but, along with other American Muslims, turned to the Democrats in the face of anti-Arab and anti-Muslim sentiment after September 11. The Vietnamese and Chinese were also initially Republicans, but have become increasingly receptive to Democratic support for civil rights.
If you put the district’s disillusioned white professionals together with a majority of the Asians and large majorities of blacks and Latinos, you get a coalition that could unseat DeLay and, over the long run, perhaps, lay the basis for a Democratic resurgence in the area. This potential was evident in two races last year. In a state representative’s district adjoining Fort Bend County and somewhat similar to it in ethnic composition, Vietnamese businessman Hubert Vo, running as a Democrat with the help of Tameez, pulled off an astonishing upset over eleven-term conservative Republican Talmadge Heflin, the powerful chairman of the House Appropriations Committee. Vo won because he mobilized the district’s Asian vote, which is about one-fifth of the electorate. Says Texas Monthly executive editor Paul Burka, “That demographic tidal wave is headed Tom DeLay’s way.”

Nor will DeLay, who made himself poster-boy for political meddling in private family matters during the Terry Schiavo tragedy, find much encouragement in recent polls. As Judis reports:

A poll conducted this month by SurveyUSA found that 51 percent of the district’s residents disapproved of the job DeLay was doing in Washington…A Houston Chronicle poll this spring revealed that 68 percent of the 22nd district’s voters disapproved of government intervention in the Schiavo case.

Winning DeLay’s seat will not be easy, concedes Judis. And it will require some astute politicking to win the support of non-white voters, who are rapidly becomming a majority in the 22nd and Republicans concerned about DeLay’s ethics and financial shenanigans:

Whether Democrats can defeat DeLay will depend partly on their funding a credible candidate to run against him–one who will not scare away the district’s registered Republican majority. Says Leonard Scarcella, a conservative Democrat who has been mayor of Stafford since 1969: “Someone needs to park himself to the right, and take everything to the left of that. You don’t have to convince anyone on the left. You have to convince voters that you can represent conservative values on religion and fiscal stability.”

Political commentator and former Clinton advisor Paul Begala, who grew up in what is now DeLay’s district says the slogan of DeLay’s opponent should be “I’m a conservative, not a crook.”
Regardless of the outcome of the race for DeLay’s seat next year, the 22nd’s political and demographic dynamics are emblematic of what is happening in many districts across the nation, particularly in the south and west. If Democrats will pay attention and target their investments and resources carefully, they can end GOP domination of Congress sooner, rather than later.

Steven Hill’s TomPaine.com article “10 Steps to Better Elections: Our electoral system is in tatters. Here’s what we can do to fix it,” offers a 10-point agenda for electoral reform that would not only make America’s elections more fair and just, but also produce more Democratic victories. Most of Hill’s proposals have been suggested before, such as automatic registration, free air time for candidates, weekend voting and abolishing the electoral college. Hill, author of Fixing Elections: The Failure of America’s Winner-Take-All Politics, also calls for nonpartisan administration of elections, a verified paper trail behind every ballot and a constitutional amendment guaranteeing full voting rights to every citizen (including prisoners and residents of the District of Columbia). Hill’s more controversial reforms include having voters rank their choices, instead of picking one and creating multi-member districts, both of which have been successful in some localities.
It looks doubtful that any reforms requiring action by Congress could be passed before ’06, given the reluctance of the Republican majorities to do anything to expand voting rights. However, some of Hill’s proposals could be enacted at the state and local level, in places where where Republicans don’t have the strength to stop needed reforms. For example, reforms to enfranchise felons, or at least those who have served their time and/or those who have only one felony conviction, have recently attracted some bipartisan support and could possibly be passed in some states before ’06. Had such a law been in place in Florida in 2000, for example, America would have almost certainly been spared the current Bush presidency.

“How Low Can He Go?”, our post asked about President Bush’s poll numbers on April 21st. Lower and lower, apparently, according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll on Bush’s Iraq policy, conducted April 29th-May 1st. The percentage of Americans who disapprove of “the way George Bush is handling the situation in Iraq” increased one point over the previous CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll to 55. Those who think “it was not worth going to war in Iraq”? Now 57 percent, up 4 percent from the previous poll. How about those who think the war in Iraq is going “moderately badly or very badly”? Now 56 percent, up a whopping 11 percent over the 45 percent who chose these two options in the previous poll.

…Hope for Democrats, that is, according to an editorial in today’s Los Angeles Times, “A Blue Tinge in the West“. Adding to reports that Democrats are surging in western states (see our recent posts “How the Wast Was Won” and “Go West Young Dem” below), the Times notes that:

The social conservatism that keeps the South red may not be enough for the West. Old-fashioned individual liberty and Democratic populism are getting a hearing. The national Democratic Party seems interested, but unsure how to get to the new rodeo…
The West, once ignored for its paltry populations, has bulked up as the blue states of the Northeast and Midwest lose residents. Latinos with potential Democratic loyalties are moving in. So are retirees from Democratic states, especially California.
The political factors are many. Nevada is at war with the federal government over the proposed nuclear repository at Yucca Mountain. Environmentalism, once sneered at in the spacious, resource-rich West, is gaining a foothold as tourism and adventure sports gain economic importance. Winning candidates have brought fiscal conservatism, pragmatism and workable ideas to the job, generally leaving ideological baggage behind.

The Times editorial offers further clues about the kinds of policies that Dems have ridden to success:

Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal, a native farm boy and former U.S. attorney who took office in 2003, persuaded an initially balky Republican Legislature to spend some of this year’s $1-billion budget surplus from mineral and energy industry tax revenues instead of socking it all away. The state boosted spending on highways, a wildlife habitat trust fund, bonuses for teachers and community college scholarships.
Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico has won tax cuts, incentives for new jobs and rapport with business interests. Richardson, whose mother is Mexican, appointed two Republicans to his Cabinet along with Indians and Latinos. Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano is strong enough that top Republicans are declining to run against her next year.

The editorial suggests that Dems can build on their beachhead in the west by protecting civil liberties and emphasizing privacy issues, such as the GOP’s disastrous handling of Terri Schiavo’s ordeal, that will “resonate with the hands-off individualism of the mountains and deserts.”

Christopher Hayes’s article “Corruption — A Proven Winner” in the May 2nd issue of The Nation (though not yet available through their website) makes a strong case that corruption and ethics are powerful issues for Democratic candidates. Hayes, a contributing editor to In These Times, shows how the corruption issue was skillfully addressed by Democratic candidates to turn Illinois into a solid blue state in a relatively short time. As Hayes explains:

For much of the twentieth century, Illinois was the quintessential swing state, the Ohio of its day. Its state government tilted toward moderate Republicans. It voted for the winner in the presidential election twenty-one of twenty-four times in the twentieth century through 1996, going for Reagan in 1980 and 1984, George Bush I in 1988 and Clinton in 1992 and 1996. The rock-ribbed Republican suburban “collar” counties around Chicago canceled out the heavily Democratic city, leaving the fate of statewide elections to the fiercely independent voters downstate. Now the state looks like a Democratic lock–Gore and Kerry both won it by double-digit margins–and in these dark days you’ve got to wonder, How did this happen? And are there any lessons to be gleaned for Democrats elsewhere?

Hayes acknowledges the important role of demographic change in producing the Dems Illinois miracle:

Local observers use the term “perfect storm” to describe the confluence of disparate factors that has produced such a true-blue state, but it’s clear that demographic changes account for much of the transformation. Over the past decade, both Chicago and its surrounding suburbs have been getting progressively more Democratic as a result of the widespread migration of black and Latino families into the collar counties, an influx of immigrants and the rightward tilt of the national GOP on social issues, which has alienated many suburban moderates. Also, as John Judis and Ruy Teixeira argue in their book The Emerging Democratic Majority, the transition of the regional economy from manufacturing to service and technology has brought with it a substantial number of professionals with graduate degrees, a group that increasingly forms a bedrock Democratic constituency.

Illinois was clearly ready for a strong Democratic candidate to lead the charge. They found him in Rod Blagojevich, a candidate for Governor who took advantage of an exploding “license for bribes” scandal in the GOP statehouse and turned it into Democratic gold:

In 2002, as the scandal was reaching a fever pitch, Blagojevich won the gubernatorial race by successfully exploiting the taint of scandal against his opponent, Attorney General Jim Ryan, who, while neither related to nor implicated in the scandal, had the misfortune of sharing the same political party and last name as George Ryan. Blagojevich ran a barrage of ads showing side-by-side pictures of Jim Ryan and George Ryan, and promised to clean up state government and pass ethics reform.
But the damage done by licenses-for-bribes has reverberated well past that election, tarnishing the entire Republican brand in the state. When in last year’s US Senate race Republican nominee Jack Ryan went down in flames after sealed divorce records revealed he had pressured his wife into attending sex clubs, there was a general “here we go again” feeling to the coverage, despite the fact that Jack Ryan’s sins were venial and George Ryan’s mortal…[Democratic congressional candidate} Melissa Bean attributes at least some of her support to scandal fatigue among Republicans in her district. “I think it helped a lot,” she told me. “It’s one thing to be the right candidate for the district and another to be the right candidate at the right time. There’s no question that this was a district that was ready for change.”

Not every state is as ripe as Illinois, but the Dems do have opportunities elsewhere, including Washington, where the DeLay scandal is percolating nicely. But Hayes argues that they have to work the right levers:

Democrats do have to make the case forcefully. In Illinois the US Attorney’s office played a key role in doggedly pursuing GOP corruption, and if Democrats learned anything from the Clinton years, it’s the power of an officially sanctioned investigation to turn smoke into fire. But with the GOP currently controlling both houses and barring any ethics investigations that don’t have majority support, Democrats will have to rely on the press and public outrage. Of late, it seems Congressional Democrats have been catching on to this, taking steps to move the ball forward on the scandals that the blogosphere has worked feverishly to call attention to, pushing for a floor vote to reinstate revoked ethics rules, and issuing a 147-page report about the “death of deliberative democracy” under the GOP’s reign.

The Dems have a great start in making corruption a pivotal issue that will pervade the ’06 election. But the outcome will ride on the Dems follow-through, says Hayes:

Congressional Democrats should take a page out of Gingrich’s and Blagojevich’s books and propose comprehensive ethics reform. They should talk about the “corrupt Republicans” and “restoring transparency and integrity” at every turn. They should use DeLay’s mounting ignominy to tar fellow Republicans who benefit from his fundraising and clout. In short, they should make Republican scandal and Democratic reform one of the central narratives of their opposition over the next two years. “Newt Gingrich came to power because of an ethics scandal,” says Obama’s state political director, Dan Shomon. “Rod Blagojevich got elected partly because of scandal. You can defeat an incumbent if you can catch his or her hand in the cookie jar.”

Corruption will be a powerful issue for Democrats for as long as there is a GOP, which is driven by greed as much as any other value. Hayes’s article should be included in the playbook for all Democratic candidates in upcoming elections.

The “Buying Blue Can Be Tricky” post below (April 15) mentioned that the AFL-CIO does not provide a list of currently unionized companies on its web page. Not exactly accurate, it turns out. The AFL-CIO does provide a separate web page “Buy American. Buy Union!,” which helps consumers identify unionized companies, as well as companies that have been targeted by unions for boycotts as a result of their backward labor policies. “Buy American. Buy Union” should be used as a screen for companies endorsed by the “Buy Blue” campaign.