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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority


American Prospect’s RX For Dems

The current online edition of The American Prospect includes required reading for wonks, pundits and Democrats concerned about preparing for the ’06 and ’08 elections. A quartet of articles “Facing Up: The Democrats Must Confront What Ails Them,” by Garance Franke-Ruta, Sarah Wildman, Sarah Blustain and Matthew Yglesias, offers insightful diagnoses and cures for Democratic political myopia with respect to middle class priorities, abortion, foreign policy and same-sex marriage.
TAP’s current issue also includes perceptive articles on strategy and a range of issues bearing on the Party’s future health by Alan Brinkley, Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., Lizabeth Cohen, James Mann, Rick Perlstein, Anna Greenberg, Robert Kuttner, Harold Meyerson, Robert B. Reich, Jeff Faux, Robert Borosage and others.

Unmarried Women Now Key Element of Democratic Base

A recent Democracy Corps analysis by Anna Greenberg and Jennifer Berktold shows that unmarried women, 23 percent of the electorate in 2004, are becomming a strongly pro-Democratic constituency. Greenberg and Berktold report that unmarried women cast 62 percent of their ballots for John Kerry (vs. 44 percent of married women’s ballots), and they tend to hold significantly more liberal views than married women on major issues such as Iraq, the economy and womens’ rights.

Final Harris Poll Points to Kerry Victory

John Kerry leads George Bush 50-47 percent of nation-wide LV’s, according to the final Harris Interactive Online Survey, conducted 10/29-11/1. Kerry also leads Bush 48-47 percent of nation-wide LV’s, according to the final Harris Interactive Telephone Survey. Both poills indicate a surge for Kerry over the previous Harris Poll. The Harris report on the poll notes “If this trend is real, then Kerry may actually do better than these numbers suggest. In the past, presidential challengers tend to do better against an incumbent President among the undecided voters during the last three days of the elections, and that appears to be the case here. The reason: undecided voters are more often voters who dislike the President but do not know the challenger well enough to make a decision. When they decide, they frequently split 2:1 to 4:1 for the challenger.”
The Harris Poll in three key states also affirmed the strong likelihood of a Kerry victory:
Florida – Kerry leads 51-47 percent of LV’s
Pennsylvania – Kerry ahead 50-48 percent of LV’s
Ohio – Kerry up 51-47 percent of LV’s
As the Harris report concluded, “Assuming the forecast is correct, Kerry is likely to win all three large states, and almost certainly the White House along with it.”

Kerry Leads in NH, PA, MN, Tied in NV, Down 4 in VA

Bush leads Kerry 51-47 percent of Virginia LV’s, according to a SurveyUSA Poll conducted 10/27-9.
John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 49 percent of Nevada LV’s, according to a SurveyUSA Poll conducted 10/28-9.
John Kerry leads George Bush 49-46 percent of New Hampshire LV’s, according to a Concord Monitor Poll conducted 10/26-28.
Kerry leads Bush 48-47 percent of Pennsylvania LV’s, according to a Temple/Inquirer Poll conducted 10/22-7.
Kerry leads Bush 49-41 percent of Minnesota LV’s, according to a Star-Tribune Poll conducted 10/26-9.

Newsweek Poll: Bush Up 3, Approval At 46%

George Bush leads John Kerry 48-45 percent of nation-wide RV’s in a 2-way Newsweek Poll conducted 10/27-29. The poll also found that Bush’s approval rating was 46 percent.