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Inside Romney’s Race Card Strategy

Ron Fournier’s “Why (and How) Romney is Playing the Race Card” at the National Journal takes a perceptive look at the GOP candidate’s dog whistle strategy. It’s about stoking the insecurities of white working-class voters with racially-charged code words. Fournier relates a conversation with two old friends back in McComb County, Michigan, in which they express opinions that African Americans (“they”) in the area are no angry because the get “subsidization” in the form of a “magic card they can swipe” to pay for things. Fournier adds:

A poll this spring by the Pew Economic Mobility Project underscored how minorities and whites see their divergent economic trajectories. Whites earning between $25,000 and $75,000 per year were more than twice as likely as blacks in the same income range–and nearly twice as likely as Latinos–to say they had already achieved the American Dream. A majority of Latinos and a plurality of African-Americans say they expect to be making enough money 10 years from now to live the lifestyle they desire. A majority of whites consider that a pipe dream.
Working-class whites, in other words, are already more prosperous and secure than working-class minorities, but they’re less optimistic because they don’t believe they’re climbing anymore. They’re simply trying to hold on to what they’ve got, and see others grabbing at it.

Further, adds Fournier,

Thanks to Romney, they see minorities grabbing at their way of life every day and all day in the inaccurate welfare ad. It opens with a picture of Bill Clinton (a man obsessed with Macomb County and Reagan Democrats) signing the 1996 welfare reform act, which shifted the benefits from indefinite government assistance to one pushing people into employment and self-reliance.
A leather-gloved white laborer wipes sweat from his forehead. “But on July 12,” the ad intones,” President Obama quietly announced a plan to gut welfare reform by dropping work requirements. Under Obama’s plan, you wouldn’t have to work and wouldn’t have to train for a job. They just send your welfare check and “welfare to work” goes back to being plain old welfare.”

As for the effectiveness of the ad, Fournier notes:

…First, internal GOP polling and focus groups offer convincing evidence that the welfare ad is hurting Obama. Second, the welfare issue, generally speaking, triggers anger in white blue-collar voters that is easily directed toward Democrats. This information comes from senior GOP strategists who have worked both for President Bush and Romney. They spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid retribution.
Furthermore, a senior GOP pollster said he has shared with the Romney camp surveys showing that white working-class voters who backed Obama in 2008 have moved to Romney in recent weeks “almost certainly because of the welfare ad. We’re talking a (percentage) point or two, but that could be significant.”

Fournier goes on to roll out a little polling history that reveals that a substantial percentage of white workers embrace racial stereotypes. He concludes that “Romney and his advisors stand by an ad they know is wrong – or, at the very least, they are carelessly ignoring the facts. That ad is exploiting the worst instincts of white voters – as predicted and substantiated by the Republican Party’s own polling.”
That may be why Romney looked pleased when he got booed at the NAACP gathering back in July for saying he would repeal the ACA. It was likely a case of a planned gambit that worked just the way he wanted.


Kilgore: ‘Pride’ in the ACA a Key Convention Theme

For some insightful comments about the Democrats approach to discussing the ACA at the Convention, read Ed Kilgore’s “Talkin’ Obamacare” at The Washington Monthly. Among Kilgore’s observations:

…Yes, ACA doesn’t poll that great, at least as an abstraction. But as we’ve known for a long time, a sizable chunk of those expressing disapproval of the legislation are people who think it should have been much stronger and/or more “public” than it was–i.e., people with zero sympathy for the GOP point-of-view on the law. And more importantly, polls have consistently shown solid majority support for most of ACA’s key provisions, with the exception of the individual mandate. Given the Republican Party’s ironclad decision not to offer any glimpse of what if anything they’d replace ObamaCare with if they succeed in repealing it, Democrats had little to lose and a lot to gain from dramatizing what Americans would lose if the law goes away–including, very crucially, provisions that have already taken effect…The potential power of this way of discussing ObamaCare was pretty clearly shown yesterday by Stacy Lihn’s speech about the lifetime cap on insurance payments that ACA outlawed, and that if reimposed could rob her of the ability to secure for her daughter life-saving heart surgery…

You can read the rest of it at this link.


Wow. Here’s a big story the MSM missed. The London Economist, the most respected business magazine on the planet, body-slams Romney as an “Olympic flip-flopper,” “a fawning PR man,” and “willing to do or say just about anything to get elected”

A few days before the Republican convention The London Economist ran an editorial titled “So, Mitt, what do you really believe? Too much about the Republican candidate for the presidency is far too mysterious.” The editorial’s quite startling conclusion was that, if Romney continued on his current “evasive, needlessly extreme” approach, “America won’t vote for that man; nor would this newspaper.. ”
It’s a really stunning slap-down. For the self-proclaimed “businessman’s candidate” to get trashed so dramatically by the leading business magazine on the planet blows a gaping hole in his entire case for election.
But don’t believe us. Read these excerpts from the Economist’s editorial (italics ours):

When Mitt Romney was governor of liberal Massachusetts, he supported abortion, gun control, tackling climate change and a requirement that everyone should buy health insurance, backed up with generous subsidies for those who could not afford it. Now, as he prepares to fly to Tampa to accept the Republican Party’s nomination for president on August 30th, he opposes all those things. A year ago he favoured keeping income taxes at their current levels; now he wants to slash them for everybody, with the rate falling from 35% to 28% for the richest Americans.
All politicians flip-flop from time to time; but Mr Romney could win an Olympic medal in it. And that is a pity, because this newspaper finds much to like in the history of this uncharismatic but dogged man, from his obvious business acumen to the way he worked across the political aisle as governor to get health reform passed and the state budget deficit down….
But competence is worthless without direction and, frankly, character… [Romney] has appeared as a fawning PR man, apparently willing to do or say just about anything to get elected. In some areas, notably social policy and foreign affairs, the result is that he is now committed to needlessly extreme or dangerous courses that he may not actually believe in but will find hard to drop; in others, especially to do with the economy, the lack of details means that some attractive-sounding headline policies prove meaningless (and possibly dangerous) on closer inspection. Behind all this sits the worrying idea of a man who does not really know his own mind. America won’t vote for that man; nor would this newspaper…
In theory, Mr Romney has a detailed 59-point economic plan. In practice, it ignores virtually all the difficult or interesting questions (indeed, “The Romney Programme for Economic Recovery, Growth and Jobs” is like “Fifty Shades of Grey” without the sex). Mr Romney began by saying that he wanted to bring down the deficit; now he stresses lower tax rates. Both are admirable aims, but they could well be contradictory: so which is his primary objective?
Mr Romney may calculate that it is best to keep quiet: the faltering economy will drive voters towards him. It is more likely, however, that his evasiveness will erode his main competitive advantage. A businessman without a credible plan to fix a problem stops being a credible businessman. So does a businessman who tells you one thing at breakfast and the opposite at supper. Indeed, all this underlines the main doubt: nobody knows who this strange man really is. It is half a decade since he ran something. Why won’t he talk about his business career openly? Why has he been so reluctant to disclose his tax returns? How can a leader change tack so often? Where does he really want to take the world’s most powerful country?

The Economist editorial concluded by saying that Romney “has a lot of questions to answer in Tampa.” As we now know, his acceptance speech didn’t answer any of them. So, as of right now, the London Economist is on record as saying “America won’t vote for that man; nor would this newspaper…”


Kilgore: Day One’s Aggressive Attack Sets Stage for ‘Epic GOTV’

Aside from Michelle Obama’s rave reviews, the first day of the Democratic Convention included an unusual number of solid speeches and a more aggressive than usual opening strategy, as TDS managing Editor Ed Kilgore, a veteran Dem convention insider, explains at the Washington Monthly:

..the first day of the Democratic convention exhibited two things some observers weren’t sure to expect: (1) a robust defense of Obama’s governing record, especially (and unexpectedly, as Ezra Klein notes) ObamaCare; and (2) a direct, uninhibited assault on the GOP generally and Mitt Romney specifically. On the latter front, Deval Patrick gave what might have been remembered, had Michelle Obama not blotted out the sun, as the best first-night speech. And “keynote” speaker Julian Castro provided a hefty combo platter of Latino solidarity with Obama; an implicit contrast with the laissez-faire oriented Latino outreach of the GOP convention; some good shots at Romney; and an appeal to younger voters.
As a veteran of the 2004 convention, when the word came down that speakers were not to criticize Republicans at all (based on some focus groups of independents expressing hostility to partisanship), this was all pretty amazing…

Read the rest of Kilgore’s post right here.


THE BIG THINGS OBAMA CAN GET DONE AT THE CONVENTION

The following memo, by James Carville and Stan Greenberg, is cross-posted from DCorps.com:
This is a close presidential race where President Obama and the Democrats still need a good convention to get momentum and define the choice in the election to lock in their 3- or 4-point lead. In our view, that is very likely.
The reason why we think it is important to have a good convention is that the real economy is so difficult that it gives Romney and the Republicans an audience on spending and budgets, even when the country views them with disdain. In the survey we conducted just before the Republican convention, Obama maintained a 2-point lead. But because Republican-leaning independents pay more attention in this period and are a larger portion of the national survey, the survey results are tough: the President fell to 6 points behind Romney and Democrats 9 points behind Republicans on who would do a better job on the economy. That poll shows people struggling in their personal economies, which were weakening further, even as there was more churning in the job market. As a result, the president was barely winning big economic arguments in the survey.
So, we just should not underestimate how difficult it is out there and what we are asking people to do – to support re-election – despite 60 percent thinking the economy is headed in the wrong direction and so many thinking spending and deficits hurt the economy. They are ready to vote for Obama because they know how unique these times are and how much Bush contributed to the mess. They are ready to vote for him because they respect President Obama and are not focused on the past but on what the candidates will do to make things better. They are ready to vote for Obama because they worry about the Republicans’ social agenda and because they truly don’t want a new version of trickle-down economics.
There are reasons why Democrats enjoy a 6-point advantage in party identification and are at parity on who voters trust to handle taxes – both pretty amazing numbers – but revealing on why Obama will likely move back into the lead.
But Democrats need a good convention to make all those dynamics dominant over the material economy. That is why we are writing this list of things Obama can get done at the convention.
Read the full memo from James Carville and Stan Greenberg.


Kilgore: ‘Big Dog’ Convention Speech May Have Potent Impact

TDS Managing Editor Ed Kilgore has an interesting take on former President Bill Clinton’s role at the Democratic Convention — and it’s potential impact at the Washington Monthly. Kilgore explains:

Until quite recently, the obvious role for Clinton was to rebut the idea that Obama’s policies–particularly his tax policies–were somehow antithetical to economic growth incompatible with a thriving private sector, or responsible for the nation’s fiscal problems. That remains an important task, and one that Clinton should respond to very personally, since he, too, had to battle the argument that very slightly higher top-level income tax rates would create an economic calamity, or more generally, that political leaders had to bend to the maximum demands of “job creators,” who would spitefully plunge the nation into a downward spiral if forced to support public investments or tolerate regulation.
But as I’ve argued earlier, Clinton has an even more urgent opportunity and obligation in Charlotte: to demolish, as no one else can, the mendacious claim that Obama is unraveling successful and popular Clinton policies, most notably the 1996 welfare reform legislation.

Read the rest of Kilgore’s post right here.


‘Horse Race’ Reporting Substandard — As Well As Overvalued

As the Democratic Convention begins, it’s instructive to take a moment to evaluate the overall quality of campaign reporting thus far. Slate.com columnist Sasha Issenberg’s post “Why Campaign Reporters Are Behind the Curve” at NYT’s ‘Campaign Stops’ is a good place to begin. Issenberg acknowledges the oft-stated critique that too much MSM time and energy is being squandered on “horse race” analysis. But, worse, argues Issenberg, the horse race reportage is generally sub-standard. As Issenberg explains:

…The reality about horse-race journalism is far more embarrassing to the press and ought to be just as disappointing to the readers who consume our reporting. The truth is that we aren’t even that good at covering the horse race. If the 2012 campaign has been any indication, journalists remain unable to keep up with the machinations of modern campaigns, and things are likely only to get worse.
…Over the last decade, almost entirely out of view, campaigns have modernized their techniques in such a way that nearly every member of the political press now lacks the specialized expertise to interpret what’s going on. Campaign professionals have developed a new conceptual framework for understanding what moves votes.
…Campaigns have borrowed techniques from the social sciences, including behavioral psychology and statistical modeling. They have access to private collections of data and from their analysis of it have been able to reach empirical, if tentative, conclusions about what works and what doesn’t.

Issenberg sees the decline in quality of horse-race reporting accelerating around the year 2000, when ” campaign analysts began to pull in reams of new data on individual voters,” including “new demographic data and lifestyle markers” such as “lists of people who purchased religious material or had gun licenses or had recently taken a cruise.” Issenberg continues:

…Few journalists had access to any of the campaigns’ data, or even much understanding of the statistical techniques they used. We found ourselves at the mercy of self-promoting consultants who described how they were changing politics by ignoring stodgy old demographics and instead pinpointing voters according to their lifestyles. We played along, guilelessly imputing new mythic powers to microtargeting. In many retellings, data analysis became the reason George W. Bush was re-elected….It was the combination of hundreds, sometimes thousands, of data points that offered value: algorithms could weigh previously imperceptible relationships among variables to predict political attitudes and behavior.

Yet, even today, says Issenberg,

Journalists tend to mistake the part of the campaign that is exposed to their view — the candidate’s travel and speeches, television ads, public pronouncements of spokesmen and surrogates — for the entirety of the enterprise. They treat elections almost exclusively as an epic strategic battle to win hearts and minds whose primary tools are image-making and storytelling.
But particularly in a polarized race like this one, where fewer than one-tenth of voters are moving between candidates, the most advanced thinking inside a campaign is just as likely to focus on fine-tuning statistical models to refine vote counts and improve techniques for efficiently identifying and mobilizing existing supporters.

Citing Romney’s “victory” in the Iowa caucuses (it was later revealed he actually lost to Santorum) as an example of distracted media analysis, Issenberg argues that “Mr. Romney had exploited the inefficiency at the core of contemporary campaign coverage: the press’s fascination with strategic calculations and gamesmanship well exceeds its ability to decode the tactics underneath.” Romney had “deployed statistical models to track Iowa supporters and current vote counts for his rivals. It amounted to a largely invisible 21st-century upgrade to the traditional infrastructure of offices, phone banks and staff that most journalists visualized.”
Here’s hoping the Obama campaign has an even stronger edge in advanced statistical analysis and the modernized campaign needed to make the most of it.


Lux: Election Will Turn on Who Wins Four Arguments

The following, by Democratic strategist Mike Lux, author of “The Progressive Revolution: How the Best in America Came to Be,” is cross-posted from HuffPo:
This Republican convention didn’t quite match the Pat Buchanan culture war level of entertainment, but it was close. From the truly odd juxtaposition of the Ann Romney soft and sweet pitch followed immediately by the me, me, me blowhard Chris Christie speech to the bizarro angry old white guy performance of Clint Eastwood getting more attention than Romney last night, this has been a special convention indeed. But in addition to the entertainment value, it did make apparent the battle lines in this election. This campaign will ultimately turn on 4 major things: the battle over Bain, the debate over Medicare, and the questions over who is to blame for this economy and how best to fix it. As a loyal Democrat, I am really pleased as to the strategic decisions the Romney camp has made on Bain and Medicare, because I think we will in the end win those debates decisively. The questions on the economy are much tougher, and I think the Obama team may need to make some adjustments in their strategy on that critical question.
Let me start with Bain, a favorite topic of mine. Romney did as good a job as he could do in describing his work at Bain and making the case for why it was a positive thing. Here’s the weird thing: I couldn’t be more delighted that he did. I’m pleased for 2 reasons. First, the fact that he spent so much time on it and worked so hard to make his case confirms that our side’s attacks on Bain have been striking body blows. Second, and even better, it means that this battle over Bain is going to be fully engaged by their campaign and the media as well as by our side. The Romney camp made the calculated decision that they couldn’t gloss over the Bain experience and keep it at the broad generic level. Instead, Romney made a full-throated defense of his reign as CEO. That means that the Obama campaign and the progressive infrastructure will be able to fully engage this debate, and that the media will have to cover and examine it. And that is a wonderful thing.
It’s wonderful because when you look under the hood even for a moment, Bain stinks. What Romney did there, and the merciless greedy values it shows him to have, should be fully aired out and examined by the media. Our side has never been bothered by Romney’s success in business, it was how he ran his business and made his money. We aren’t bothered by the fact that some of the investments failed, we are appalled by the way Romney loaded these companies up with debt, manipulated the tax code to make big short term profits even if it hurt the companies involved, took big management fees whether the companies involved were doing well or not, and screwed the workers while walking away with big money even when the businesses involved went down the tubes. Bain and Mitt made huge profits even off most of the companies that went bankrupt on their watch, and they did it while doing mass layoffs and out-sourcing, cutting the wages of those workers who were left, and stripping workers’ of their pensions and health coverage. They got rich- really, really rich- because the workers got poorer, and they got profits in the form of tax code manipulations and management fees whether the companies did well or not. If you want to read yet another great explanation of how Bain made its money (and there are many), I highly recommend Matt Taibibi’s truly wonderful piece in Rolling Stone, which should be required reading for every reporter covering this debate.
So when Mitt is bragging about the companies which were success stories, don’t forget a few little things Mitt left out of his speech last night. The first is that they were success stories in spite of the huge debt and management fees Bain saddled them with- the fact that they made it was a lucky thing. Secondly, they weren’t success stories for a great many of their workers, many of whom lost their jobs and pensions and health coverage- and even for those who didn’t, frequently had jobs where the average pay wasn’t exactly sterling. Finally, remember that the failures were usually failures precisely because of Bain’s vulture capitalism.
So let’s have the Bain debate. The more voters know, the better off Democrats are. Which is exactly the case with the Medicare issue as well. In that case, the Romney-Ryan campaign team is well aware of that fact. It is very telling that neither Romney nor Ryan, the intellectual architect of the Republican proposals on Medicare, said a word about their actual plan. Beyond their bogus, thoroughly debunked attacks on the Obama “Medicare cuts”, and beyond pounding their chests saying they “wanted this debate”, Romney like Ryan before him did not say a single word to explain or defend argue for their proposal. As I wrote about yesterday, their strategy is to keep saying as loud as they can that they want this debate precisely so that people won’t notice that they never want to actually have the debate. But by forcing them to speak to the specifics, by explaining exactly what they proposed and what we are for in contrast, we will win this debate by a wide margin. The Medicare coupon idea, where you take your inadequate amount of money and try to negotiate individually with a huge insurance company that may be the only one that serves your market, would be a disaster for most people, and when voters hear about it, they understand that.
The Romney-Ryan strategy on Medicare is a lot like their strategy on discussing their economic ideas: namely, proclaim loudly that they have a plan for jobs and growth and the economy without saying much at all about what that plan does. Romney and Ryan literally spent more time in their speeches talking about having a plan and putting the Democrats “on notice” that they wanted to debate their plan and the fact that their plan would produce all these miracle cures for everything wrong with America than they did actually talking about their plan. The portion of Romney’s speech that was about his plan was 5 very general points discussed in a grand total of 11 sentences. (We’re going to promote trade! We’re going to help small businesses by repealing Obamacare and not taxing or regulating them!) Ryan, the great Republican policy maven, said even less about actual policy.
They aren’t saying much because they really, really don’t want people to know the details, because they know that when people hear the details in focus groups, voters are generally appalled. Which brings me to the last great debate on which this campaign will turn. I am convinced that the more voters hear about Bain and Medicare and other specific policy proposals, the more they will dislike Romney and Ryan. The thing the Republicans have left in the arsenal, though, is as big a weapon as you can have: the bad economic times we have been living through. People are in a foul mood about it, and they have good reason to be. The Republicans did a very effective job at the convention of pounding away on that central issue, and hammering away at the theme that Obama is trying to blame Bush despite not having fixed things. It’s undoubtedly the Republicans most dangerous weapon, their “big one”, because voters want to (a) level the blame somewhere, and (b) have someone fix it. On the ways to fix it, Democrats clearly have the edge, with the entire Republican convention as the best evidence: talk as little about our actual proposals as humanly possible. But on the who is to blame thing, there is a real danger that Republicans will win that argument.
The main place from a message perspective I would fault the Obama campaign is that they have so far failed to tell the story of why this economy has been in such big trouble. There have been plenty of generic references to the failed policies of the past, but I would argue that to seal the deal and win this election, Obama needs to explain to the American public who caused this mess and who is holding us back from recovery: Wall Street and the big special interests who have an iron grip on the throat of our economic system. It has the twin virtues of being completely believable to the American public and completely true. Obama needs to tell that story, and he needs to remind people that the same mega-companies who caused this mess are the exact ones backing Romney-Ryan and personified by Bain Capital and the Romney-Ryan budget.
Every election comes down to a series of big debates. In this one there are 4 big ones that everything will turn on: what does Romney’s tenure at Bain say about him, which side has the better Medicare plan, why are we having such tough economic times, and how do we get out of this mess. I think that right now, we Democrats have an excellent chance at winning on Bain, Medicare, and plans for the future. But if we don’t win on why we are in such trouble, I fear it could pull everything else down. I think Obama can win that debate, but he needs to tell the story of how the Wall Street crowd and the wealthy special interests- Romney and Ryan’s buddies- are choking our economy.


New DCorps Poll: Romney’s High Personal Negatives Give Obama Edge

The following article, by Erika Seifert, is cross-posted from DCorps.
Mitt Romney will need to make up a lot of ground tonight if he is to restore his image heading into the fall campaign season. The most recent Democracy Corps survey, which concluded on Monday, finds that almost half of all voters (47 percent) still give Mitt Romney a negative personal rating. This is despite the fact that the Republican ticket dominated the news through much of August — first with the nomination of Paul Ryan, and more recently with abundant headlines leading up to the Republican convention.
This will be a significant challenge for Romney in a close, but remarkably decided election. This year, more than any other, clear lines were established early on and most voters have either selected a candidate or decided to stay home on November 6. This most recent survey finds that just 1 percent of likely voters remain undecided. Even as early as June, just 2 percent were undecided. In the last week of the 2008 election, by contrast, 3 to 4 percent remained undecided.
While the vote remains close — Obama holds a marginal 2 point edge over Romney — the Republican challenger has thus far been unable to make inroads among key voting blocs, largely because of his high personal negatives. Once again, our poll shows that negative personal ratings of Romney are a stronger predictor of the vote than even party identification.
By a significant 11-point margin, voters prefer Barack Obama over Mitt Romney when it comes to looking out for the middle class, and by a 3-point margin on health care reform. By a marginal 2 points, voters say they trust the President more than Romney to make the right decisions for the future.
While Romney holds the edge on which candidate would do a better job on the economy in general, the President is now even with Romney on having the right approach to taxes. This is an issue where we expect Republicans to dominate, but as this recent Los Angeles Times/USC survey finds, voters reject the Republicans’ hard line on tax cuts for the wealthiest.


Teixeira: Romney’s Already Low Latino Support Evaporating

The following article, by TDS Co-founder Ruy Teixeira, is cross-posted from Univsion News:
The minority vote looks rock solid for President Obama as we head toward November’s election, coming very close to the 80 percent support level he received in 2008.


Part of this of course is due to overwhelming backing from black voters. But it was more or less expected that African-American voters would continue to support the first African-American president by very lopsided margins. It was less expected that Latinos would be as strong as they have been so far for Obama. Indeed, in ten national polls of Hispanics since December of last year, Latino voters have favored Obama over Romney by an average of 44 points, substantially higher than the margin of 36 points they gave Obama in 2008.


It is striking how uniform this support appears to be across segments of the Latino population. In a July Latino Decisions poll, Obama was ahead of Romney 70-22 percent among all voters. This included margins of 72-19 among the foreign-born, 69-25 among the U.S. born, 76-15 among Spanish speakers, and 66-28 among English speakers. In addition, Obama was ahead 72-20 percent among those who said they voted in 2008 (Obama actual margin in 2008 was “only” 67-31).


How important is a strong overall minority vote to Obama? Without it, he cannot absorb the additional losses he is expected to suffer among white voters this November, particularly white working-class voters. But if the minority vote remains as strong as it is now, Obama can still win even if Romney’s advantage among white working-class voters is far greater than John McCain’s 18 point margin in 2008. In short, the minority vote, where a big Latino margin is so vital, is Obama’s insurance policy in a year when he is sure to receive a reduced share of the white vote.


In addition, judging from eligible voter trends, minorities should be a larger share of voters in 2012 than 2008, making that insurance policy all the more potent. Since Hispanics are providing the bulk of the increase in minority eligible voters, without solid Hispanic turnout–still a question mark given relatively low voter enthusiasm among Hispanics–the projected increase in minority voters is not likely to happen. That would enhance the importance of Obama’s white working class problem.
Of course, the election is still two and a half months away. There’s still a chance Romney could undercut Obama’s support among Hispanics and weaken the minority voting bloc backing Obama. But Romney’s recent selection of Paul Ryan as a vice presidential running mate augurs poorly for Romney’s chance of doing so.


Start with Ryan’s positions on immigration. There is essentially no daylight between his
positions and those Romney supports; Ryan, like Romney, opposes any path toward citizenship or permanent legal status for illegal immigrants and Ryan, like Romney, opposes the DREAM Act. Ryan has the additional distinction of having voted against the proposal in Congress, something Romney never had the opportunity to do.


Then there are Ryan’s famously hard line positions on massively cutting spending, particularly on Medicare, while ruling out any tax increases for the affluent. Recent Latino Decisions data show that Latinos oppose cutting spending on Medicare to reduce the national debt by an overwhelming 73-22 margin. And just 8 percent think cutting spending without raising taxes on the wealthy is the best approach to reducing the budget deficit. Finally, 55 percent of Hispanics think more federal spending to stimulate the economy is a better way to grow the economy than cutting taxes (31 percent). None of this, of course, is at all compatible with the views of Romney’s new running mate.


Romney still has some time to chip away at Obama’s overwhelming lead among Hispanics. But time is running out and the Ryan selection is just the latest sign that the Romney campaign lacks a strategy for cutting into that lead.