By this I don’t mean that Gallup’s pollsters are themselves racially-biased. Rather I mean that their likely voter (LV) samples–whose results Gallup continues to promote above all others–tend to be racially-biased because of the methodology Gallup employs to draw them.
Here’s a basic sketch of how Gallup’s methodology works:

Gallup asks each [RV] respondent seven LV screening questions, and gives each person an LV score of 0 to 7. [Assuming a turnout of 55 percent], the top 55% are classified as likely voters. In practice that typically means all of the “7”s–given full weight–plus some proportion of those with lower scores (usually the “6”s), who are weighted down so that the size of the likely voter sample matches the projected turnout for the year (apparently 55 percent this year). All other voters are discarded from the sample.

Note that the demographics of Gallup’s LV sample are not adjusted in any way (as their overall samples are) and are simply allowed to fall where they may.
What this means is that if, say, minority voters are much less likely to answer the 7 questions “right”, they will be correspondingly under-represented in the LV sample–perhaps severely under-represented.
That is exactly what turns out to be the case. According to data obtained by Steve Soto over at the Left Coaster, Gallup’s latest LV sample–the one that showed Bush with an 8 point lead–has only 14.5 percent minority representation and only 7.5 percent black representation.
How plausible is this as a representation of the election day electorate? Not remotely plausible. In 1996, minority representation among voters was 17 percent; in 2000, 19.4 percent. In 2004, the minority proportion of voters should be more than this, because minorities are growing, not declining, as a percentage of the US population. So 14.5 percent for nonwhites as a prediction of the 2004 electorate is very, very unlikely. It would defy both recent history and powerful demographic trends.
As for 7.5 percent blacks. C’mon. Blacks were 10.1 percent in 1996 and 9.7 percent in 2000. And they’re 12 percent of the voting age population. There’s just no way in the world blacks will only be 7.5 percent of voters in 2004.
So, in effect, Gallup’s likely voter approach is disenfranchising minorities in assessing American voters’ inclinations on the coming election. That’s wrong and Gallup should stop doing it.
And speaking of disenfranchisement, how about America’s young people? This group is also full of voters who are relatively unlikely to answer the seven LV questions right and thus qualify for admission into the exalted realm of the Gallup LV sample.
Sure enough, Gallup informs us that young voters (18-29) only compose 11 percent of likely voters. Well, that would be quite a trick. In 1992, young voters were 21 percent of voters; in 1996, 17 percent of voters; and in 2000, 17 percent again. And we’re supposed to believe that young voters are all of a sudden going to drop to 11 percent this year? Puh-leeze, this doesn’t pass the laugh test.
As it happens, minorities–no big surprise–lean very heavily toward Kerry this year. But young voters are also Kerry’s best age group this year. Systematically under-representing these groups in Gallup’s LV samples will therefore have an obvious, and fairly substantial, effect on their results, tilting them in the direction of Bush and the Republicans.
That’s not right. Gallup should know better. And we should all know better than to trust results that are based on effective disenfranchisement of large numbers of minority and young voters.

Very bad. There’s a reason why Matthew Dowd pledged his immortal soul to Gallup when confronted with the results of this survey.
And it’s not the horse race result of the survey though that was pretty poor for Bush (45-45 in the 2-way RV matchup). It’s the other results and the poll’s internals that are so gruesome for the Bush-Cheney campaign.
Here are some of the key findings:
1. Kerry leads by 7 among independents.
2. Bush’s approval rating is only 44 percent among RVs, but a truly abysmal 34 percent approval/50 percent diapproval among independents.
3. Democrats are up by 6 in the generic house content (10 points among independents).
4. Right direction/wrong track is 39/57 and a stunning 34/61 among independents.
5. Bush’s approval ratings on Iraq, the economy and foreign policy are, respectively, 42, 42 and 41 (35, 34 and 33 among independents).
6. More voters think the economy is getting worse (34 percent) than think it is getting better (24 percent).
7. Among independents, the Democrats’ favorable/unfavorable rating is 54/35, while Republicans’ rating is 42/49.
8. More than four times as many voters believe Bush administration policies have increased the cost of prescription drugs (47 percent) than believe their policies have decreased the cost (11 percent).
9. By 60 percent to 8 percent, voters believe Bush administration policies have mostly benefitted the rich, rather than the middle class.
10. An amazing 81 percent of independents believe that Bush administration policies have either decreased the number of jobs in the country (55 percent) or had no effect (26 percent).
11. Perhaps even more amazing, 72 percent of independents believe that Bush administration policies have either increased their taxes (27 percent) or had no effect (55 percent).
12. About three-quarters of independents (74 percent) believe the Bush administration did a poor job of thinking through what would happen as a result of the Iraq war.
13. Independent voters are evenly split, 46-46 on whether Kerry has the same priorities for the country as they do, but, by 60-24, they believe Bush does not have the same priorities.
14. Independent voters believe, by 8 points (50-42) that Kerry understands the needs and problems of people like themselves but, by 59-37, they believe Bush does not understand these needs and problems.
15. Independents believe, by 65-21, that Kerry is more interested in protecting the interests of ordinary Americans than in protecting the interests of large corporations; by 69-22, they believe Bush sides with large corporations rather than ordinary Americans.
16. Among independents, just 30 percent believe Bush will make sure Social Security benefits are there for them, but 58 percent believe Kerry will make sure those benefits are there.
17. Also among independents: 65 percent believe the Iraq war is only a minor part (12 percent) or not a part at all (53 percent) of the war on terrorism; 63 percent believe efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq are going badly; and 70 percent believe that Iraq was a threat that could have been contained without immediate military action or was not a threat at all.
18. Finally, 67 percent of voters believe their family is not better off today than four years ago and 75 percent believe the number of jobs in their community has not increased in the last four years.
No wonder Dowd was moved to make his touching declaration of faith in the Gallup Organization. If these CBS/NYT data are on the money, his man’s in big, big trouble.
Oh, and the party ID distribution in this poll? A 3 point Democratic advantage among RVs, very close to the Democratic advantage in the 2000 exit poll.
But I guess that’s another reason why Dowd fled as fast as he could into the arms of Gallup, when confronted with this particular poll.

By Alan Abramowitz
Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania are the big three in the presidential race. John Kerry and George Bush were both in Florida this morning. Kerry will be in Pennsylvania and Ohio later today. Bush will be there shortly. Both campaigns see these three states as the most crucial in the entire nation. Whoever wins two of these three states will probably win the election and right now George Bush is in big trouble in all three.
In seven polls conducted since the first presidential debate, John Kerry held an average lead of 4.0 points over George Bush among likely voters in Pennsylvania. Kerry led Bush in all seven polls.
In five polls conducted since the first presidential debate, John Kerry held an average lead of 1.2 points over George Bush among likely voters in Ohio. Kerry led Bush in four of the five polls. No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio.
In nine polls conducted since the first presidential debate, George Bush held an average lead of 0.8 points over John Kerry among likely voters in Florida. Kerry led in four polls, Bush led in four, and one was tied. In the four most recent polls, conducted since October 10, Kerry led in two, Bush in one, and one was tied. Kerry led by an average of 0.5 points in these four polls.
Kerry also led Bush by an average of 4.4 points in five polls conducted in the small but important state of New Hampshire–a state that George Bush carried in 2000. Kerry led in four of the five polls with one poll tied.
George Bush is not leading in a single state that Al Gore carried in the 2000 election. And remember, recent history shows that an incumbent president needs a lead of 3-4 points in the final polls in order to win because undecided voters tend to break heavily for the challenger.

By Alan Abramowitz
This poll of New Jersey likely voters is by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, a long-established, very reputable polling organization. Kerry leads by 13 among likely voters. Kerry’s firm support is 48 percent; Bush’s firm support is 36. Kerry is likely to carry NJ by about the same margin as Gore did four years ago. This state is not in play.

“They’re the ones I pay attention to”
–Matthew Dowd, Bush’s chief campaign strategist, on Gallup relative to other polling organizations, quoted in today’s New York Times

By Alan Abramowitz
If you just look at their results for registered voters, there has actually been very little change in the Gallup Poll results since early October. Bush had a 1 point lead then, he has a 3 point lead now. Not that different from what most other polls have been showing. Almost all of the change since their last poll is in the results for likely voters. Unfortunately, the likely voter number is the only one the media will focus on now.
So how do you go from a 3 point lead among registered voters to an 8 point lead among likely voters? By projecting that 89 percent of registered Bush supporters will vote but only 81 percent of registered Kerry supporters will vote. But as we know, this is totally unrealistic.

By Alan Abramowitz
A new Gallup poll has George Bush leading John Kerry by 8 points among likely voters. A new Democracy Corps poll has Kerry leading Bush by 3 points among likely voters. Who should you believe? Hint: If you’ve been following my previous messages, you should know the answer to this question.
Remember, in 2000, Democracy Corps’ final poll, released five days before the election, was right on the money. In fact, every D.C. poll in the final weeks of the 2000 campaign showed the race to be very, very close.
Remember, a Gallup poll released on October 26, 2000, less than two weeks before the election, had George Bush leading Al Gore by 13 points! Numerous Gallup polls during the final weeks of the 2000 campaign had Bush with ludicrously large leads.
And this time, Gallup has Bush ahead by 8 among likely voters but by 3 among registered voters. This is just too large a gap between registered and likely voters.
It looked for a while, after the first debate, like the Gallup Poll was getting reasonable again. Looks like they were just teasing us.

The new Time poll, conducted October 14-15, has the race tied 46-46 in a 2-way RV matchup. That’s pretty bad for an incumbent seeking re-election, but the rest of the poll has even worse news.
Start with the debates. The poll confirms that voters see Kerry as the winner of the final debate (37-28), though not by the crushing margin of the first debate (59-23). But when asked to consider all three presidential debates, voters do indeed see Kerry as the victor by a crushing margin, 57-27.
Moreover, voters give Kerry very high marks on specific aspects of the last debate, despite the fact that they were less likely to see him as the overall winner. This presumably reflects the extent to which (positive) impressions of Kerry are settling in voters’ minds.
For example, by 49-40 voters thought Kerry, rather than Bush, had the best understanding of the issues. That’s actually better than after the first debate, when voters saw the candidates tied on this attribute.
And then there’s this one: on who “took positions on issues that are closer to your own”, voters gave Kerry a wide 54-39 margin after the last debate, compared to 48-42 after the first debate.
And how about this one: after the first debate, voters gave Bush a slight one point edge on who seemed more presidential; after the last debate, voters gave Kerry the edge, 49-44.
On which candidate can be trusted more on different issues and in different areas, the poll finds little change from their post-first debate poll. Kerry’s gains after that debate have apparently stabilized.
Here are some of these gains, as summarized in the SRBI release on the poll:

Handling of the economy: Kerry has opened a 6 point lead over Bush, 49% – 43%. Just before the first debate, the candidates were even, 44% for each.
Health care: Kerry has widened his lead to 13 points, 51%-38%. Before the debates, Kerry had an 8 point edge.
Understanding people’s needs: Kerry is up by 7 points, 49% – 42%. Before the debates, he was up by just 4 points.
Commander-in-Chief: Bush is ahead by 10 points, 51%-41%, but this has narrowed from a 16 point advantage before the debates.
Providing leadership in difficult times: Bush leads by 8 points, 52%-40%. Before the debates, he dominated by as much as 21 points.
War on terrorism: Bush tops Kerry 51%-40%, after leading Kerry by as much as 18 points before the debates.

The poll also asked about some of the specific issues Kerry and Bush differed on in the last debate.
Assault weapons. By 73-22, voters favor the ban on assault weapons; by 49-8 they feel gun control laws should be more strict, not less strict; and by 41-40 they say Kerry is closer to their position on gun control than Bush.
Embryonic stem cell research: By 69-22 voter favor using discarded embryos to conduct stem cell research; by 49-34 they say Kerry is closer to their position on this issue than Bush.
Abortion. Voters say by 45-40 that Kerry is closer to their position than Bush on this issue.
Gay rights. Voters say by 44-41 that Kerry is closer to their position than Bush on this issue; by 54-41 they oppose amending the US constitution to ban same-sex couples from marrying.
Supreme Court appointments. By 43-38, voters say the issue of Supreme Court appointments makes them more likely to vote for Kerry rather than Bush.

By Alan Abramowitz
I just received the following message from a colleague at another university who is totally trustworthy:
“I have friend who is a co-chair of the Bush Cheney campaign. Rove believes that Bush needs to have a 4 point lead going into the last weekend to win given the undecideds that will break againt the president.”

By Alan Abramowitz
Fasten your seat belts and make sure that your tray tables and seat backs are in their fully upright and locked positions. The 2004 presidential campaign is coming in for a landing and it’s going to be a bumpy ride. You’re going to see some strange poll results over the next two weeks and the most important thing to keep in mind is that if a poll’s results don’t make sense–if they seem to be out of line with most other polls or if they show a big difference between registered voters and likely voters–don’t believe them.
We’ve already pointed out that during the final week of the 2000 campaign, 39 out of 43 national polls showed George Bush leading Al Gore. A look back at the state polls released during the final two weeks of the 2000 presidential campaign shows that while most of the polls were reasonably accurate, there were some that were way off the mark.
The final Zogby tracking poll in California showed Al Gore with a razor thin 1 point lead over George Bush. Maybe that’s why Bush ran off to California during the final few days of the campaign. Gore won the state by 12 points.
In Delaware, which was considered a swing state by many analysts in 2000, a late Mason-Dixon Poll had Bush leading Gore by 4 points. Gore won the state by 13.
In Illinois, which many pundits did not consider safe for Al Gore either, a Mason-Dixon Poll had Gore with only a 3 point lead and a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll had Bush with a 3 point lead. Gore carried the state by 12.
In Michigan almost all of the polls showed Al Gore with the lead. But a Market Research Group Poll completed on October 26 had Bush ahead by 6. Gore carried the state by 5. Market Research Group was a Republican polling organization and this year we’re seeing a lot more of those Republican polls, a lot of them from an outfit called Strategic Vision. Take their results with a very large grain of salt.
In New Jersey, three late polls, two by Quinnipiac University and one by the Gannett newspapers, all showed Al Gore with a fairly narrow lead–ranging from 5 to 8 points. Gore carried the state by 16. This year we’re again seeing some state polls showing that New Jersey is close. We’ll see if they’re any more accurate this time than they were four years ago.
In Ohio, two late polls, one by the University of Cincinnatti and one by The Columbus Dispatch, gave George Bush a 10 point lead over Al Gore. On Election Day, Bush’s margin was only 4 points.
Finally, in Wisconsin, a swing state in 2000 and in 2004, the final Zogby tracking poll and a late poll by Market Shares had Bush ahead of Gore by 6 and 5 points respectively. Al Gore carried the state by less than 1 percentage point.