Now that we are into the 2022 primary season, it’s time to lay down some markers on how to evaluate Donald Trump’s candidate endorsement strategy, which will inevitably get attention. I offered some preliminary thoughts at New York:
Ever since he became president, Donald Trump has made a habit of endorsing a lot of candidates for office. According to Ballotpedia, as of today, he has endorsed a total of 497 primary- or general-election candidates, 192 of them since leaving the White House. Trump, of course, claims his endorsements have been a smashing success. A day after his attempt to get revenge on his Georgia enemies failed spectacularly, he was boasting of his prowess on Truth Social:
“A very big and successful evening of political Endorsements. All wins in Texas (33 & 0 for full primary list), Arkansas, and Alabama. A great new Senatorial Candidate, and others, in Georgia. Overall for the “Cycle,” 100 Wins, 6 Losses (some of which were not possible to win), and 2 runoffs. Thank you, and CONGRATULATIONS to all!”
But is Trump actually a midterms kingmaker? The answer is a bit trickier than simply checking his math. The former president has been furiously padding his win record by backing unopposed House incumbents in safe seats, so the numbers don’t tell us much. Instead, let’s look at the objectives behind his aggressive midterms enforcement strategy and how well he’s meeting each goal.
Everyone knows Trump is self-centered to an extreme degree, but there is a rational motive for him wanting to enter every political conversation: It keeps his name in the news and his opinions on people’s minds. This requires some effort given Trump’s loss of key social-media outlets and of the levers of presidential power.
He’s meeting this objective well so far. It’s a rare 2022 Republican primary in which Trump’s support or opposition is not an issue of discussion. He has endorsed 16 gubernatorial candidates, 17 Senate candidates, 110 House candidates, 20 non-gubernatorial statewide elected officials, and even 18 state legislators and three local elected officials. That means a lot of jabbering about Trump and a lot of speculation about who might win his support. And even where his candidates have fallen short, the signature MAGA themes of immigration, “election security,” and “America First” have been on most candidates’ lips. Arguably, Trump nemesis Georgia governor Brian Kemp ran a MAGA campaign.
Some of Trump’s endorsements are meant to settle old scores with Republicans who thwarted his efforts to reverse his 2020 loss or supported one of his two impeachments. In addition to punishing figures such as Representative Liz Cheney, Trump hopes withholding his support from disloyal Republicans will serve as deterrent to anyone who might disobey him in the future.
This is why the victories of Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in Georgia were so damaging to Trump’s brand: These two men (especially Raffensperger, who not only mocked Trump’s election-theft fables and defied his orders to “find” votes for him but wrote a book about it) stood up to the boss on an important matter and didn’t lose their jobs over it. That could be dangerous for Trump if it continues.
Trump demonstrates his power through his ability to instruct Republicans on how to vote and by making his good will the coin of the realm for Republican aspirants to office. From that point of view, the ideal primary for the former president was probably Ohio’s Senate contest on May 3. All but one of the candidates spent months seeking his favor, and the lucky beneficiary of his endorsement, J.D. Vance, surged to victory on the wings of MAGA support. Similarly, in Pennsylvania, Trump managed to get multiple Senate and gubernatorial candidates to dance to his tune before settling on Doug Mastriano for governor (a win) and Mehmet Oz for the Senate (a possible win; his duel with David McCormick has gone to overtime with a recount and a court case).
Trump didn’t do so well in instructing his voters in Idaho, Nebraska, and Georgia, losing gubernatorial primaries in all three. But he barely lifted a finger on behalf of Idaho lieutenant governor Janice McGeachin against Brad Little, and you can’t really blame him for his Nebraska candidate, Charles Herbster, being accused of groping multiple women (though you can certainly blame him for not only sticking with Herbster after the allegations emerged but also advising him to deny everything and fight back).
Here, again, the results in Georgia were devastating for Trump. Voters in the state emphatically rejected Trump’s repeated and incessant instructions to vote again Kemp and Raffensperger; in the gubernatorial race in particular, there was no doubt about his wishes. Yet Kemp won with nearly three-fourths of the vote. That level of voter disobedience hurts.
If we assume Trump is running for president in 2024, then it makes perfect sense for him to attach his name to a midterm Republican campaign effort that, for reasons that have nothing to do with him, is likely to be successful. Getting in front of a parade that is attracting larger and more enthusiastic crowds is a surefire way to look like a leader without the muss and fuss of having to make strategic decisions, formulate message documents, raise money, or plot the mechanics of a get-out-the-vote campaign.
Trump’s success in making himself the face of the 2022 Republican comeback will, of course, depend on what happens in November. At least three of his endorsed Senate candidates (four if Oz prevails in the Pennsylvania recount) are already Republican nominees in top November battlegrounds. He has also endorsed Senate candidates in future 2022 primaries in Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Wisconsin, which should be close and pivotal races in November. If the Senate candidates Trump has handpicked underperform (e.g., Georgia’s Herschel Walker, whose personal and business backgrounds have come under scrutiny) or, worse yet, cost the GOP control of the upper chamber, you can bet Mitch McConnell and many others will privately or even publicly point fingers of angry accusation toward Mar-a-Lago. The same could be true in states holding crucial gubernatorial elections.
Portraying himself as the leader of a Republican midterm wave may conflict with some of Trump’s other goals. For example, he may need to put aside his thirst for vengeance against Kemp to back the GOP’s crusade against Democrat Stacey Abrams (whom Trump once said he’d prefer to Kemp). More generally, if Trump makes himself too much of the 2022 story, he could help Democrats escape the usual midterm referendum on the current president’s performance. In that case, 2022 could serve as a personal disaster rather than a bridge to his 2024 return to glory.
Georgia’s primaries presented multiple danger signs for Trump’s 2022 strategy of aligning himself with winners, intimidating his enemies, and remaining the center of attention. But despite his recent setbacks, there are no signs Trump is shifting tactics, and it’s a long way to the final reckoning in November.
George Phillies wrote:
Perhaps the most important number, both nationally and in many states that Bush seems to be carrying, is that the first digit of his numbers is a “4”.
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Ah, through all the buzz, a statement of clarity.
Bush is losing and has been losing a long time. If polls are viewed generally for the past several months, there are only limited moments in which Bush has pierced the “50”, and that only if you actually believe those polls.
Sabato said two months ago it would take a miracle for Bush to win, and he was right.
Bush has lost the election. I’m sure their major game plan is still to steal it. Florida and Ohio are where they plan to try to steal it.
The undecideds cannot possibly break for the President. If they were going to support Bush they’d be in his column before now. He’s the known quantity. He’s been consistent for the last 4 years and also during the debates. Anyone who is really undecided at this point has already resisted being swayed by Bush for 4 years and the entire campaign. That’s why there are so few real undecideds. What Kerry had to do and did during the debates is show he’s capable of governing.
Late rapid drifts in the polls can be substantial.
This year, there is an additional complication relative to 2000 that may tend to bias the polls toward Bush relative to the election. In 2000, Bush, Gore and Nader were on the ballot in every (for Nader, almost every) state, Buchanan’s campaign did not catch fire in that conservatives largely were happy with Bush, and Browne’s campaign was ineffective for reasons I outlined in my book Funding Liberty (Third Millennium Press http://3mpub.com/~phillies if anyone is interested.)
This time, Nader is not even on the ballot in many states, so a poll that includes CA or TX voters and asks them if they will vote for Nader is just plain wrong. (and those wrong votes came in fair part from Kerry). This time, the Libertarian campaign (Michael Badnarik) is on and off polling around even with Kerry, is on the ballot in every state except NH and OK, and has a largely unified party and a campaign staff that is campaigning actively. (If that last bit sounds odd as something to mention, see my book.) The Peroutka campaign, with positions many Democrats will find a bit odd, is also firing on at least some cylinders. However, Peroutka and Nader are almost never polled except by Rasmussen. The Nader Peroutka Badnarik flaws may cost Kerry in the polls a percent of the vote, and may give Bush one percent that he will not have in reality.
However, if you are going to drop polls as outliers, you should keep a list of the outlier polls, lest you analyse yourself into rejecting all the good polls and keeping only the bad ones.
Perhaps the most important number, both nationally and in many states that Bush seems to be carrying, is that the first digit of his numbers is a “4”. That’s a losing number. Democrats should not lose heart, should heed the wise advice of the article on which we are commenting, and could consider reminding their conservative and small government friends about Mr Badnarik.
cl8y-
Typically undecideds break for the challenger. I’ve seen polls suggesting that the undecideds, by a large majority, favor a change and have views closer to Kerry’s.
Anything’s possible, of course, but I’m optimistic about them at this point. The Rove quote from Abramowitz, above, fits with this point of view.
What are the chances of Bush occupying the Gore role from 2000? All the poles are close, and many not to be trusted, so how do we know they won’t break for the President instead of for Kerry? Is there something from the internals that would indicate this?
And then there’s the reminder also to be mindful of LV/RV distinctions. I see that the new Newsweek poll is out. By LV’s, Kerry is down 6%. By RV, just 2%, and just 1% in head to head RV.
I’d be willing to bet it’s the 6% that hits the media…
Ruy does well to point out turbulence. Stay calm and focused all.
One question is: these are all examples of the polls UNDERestimating the Democrats’ strength. What about OVERestimations too? Like in 2002 and surely SOME states in 2000, n’est-ce pas?
I think all the polls this year are way off due to the under polling of the 18-30 year olds.
Considering the newly registered voters must be largely from this demographic and their reliance of cellular phones for (nearly) all their telecommunications, these voters will hold a huge surprise impact on this election.
I have two daughters, one 29 and one 25 and I can tell you there is a tremendous difference in their participatory interest.
The older one, going through high school while Reagan and Bush were in office, is pretty much ambivalent about politics.
The younger one, going through high school while Clinton was president, is very much involved and in tune with political activism.
The older one will not vote whereas the younger one is definitely voting for Kerry.
The youth vote will go strong and early for Kerry and this element is what all the major polls will miss.
This effect will become known as the “Cell-Phone Effect” but is really the “Clinton Youth Effect”.
I think la is correct in that the best idea at this juncture is to do the unthinkable- ignore the polls b/c they aren’t going to help one bit. Over on Daily Kos you have people fretting over every little shift inthe polls- ie, Kerry was up by 2 last week, and down by 1 this week, and vice versa, and they look at the negative one as gospel. I think as I have said in other places on here this all feels like a Rorshach’s test to me- people are seeing what they want to see. Right now I spy a tie of around 47 to 48 percent so what does that mean? The same as always and I will say it like a broken record convince everyone, their mama and grandmama to volunteer, to phonebank and drive up the GOTV.
How much did the late DUI revelation factor into the Gore last minute surge and variance from the polls? Rove estimated 1 million votes.
To what extent was Gore’s improvement over the last polls due to DUI and to what extent was it turnout or polling erro?
I read the description of the methodology on the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll (the one that now shows Kerry only 2 points ahead in New Jersey). There was no mention of any weighting procedure. If they don’t weight, it means that Kerry is almost certainly much stronger than the numbers indicate.
I agree that Zogby’s state polls are pretty suspect.(as other pollsters).
His national polls for the presidential race were dead on in 2000 and 1996. I think tthats why we all give his polls so much weight. I’m not all that concerned about the fact kerry is down 4 in the zogby poll now, these jumps happen, i fully suspect that in a few days the polls may show kerry up by 3 or 4.
That was a nice run-down of the wacko poll results from 2000 — I wasn’t aware of those (or I forgot in the horror of what subsequently happened). I am left wondering, however, if there were also poll results that showed Gore with healthy leads in states that he actually lost. Can you give us examples?
The reason I ask is that one conclusion that can be drawn from your interesting post (aside from: don’t believe every poll result) is that the 2000 polling results were uniformily skewed against Gore. Was that the case?
An excellent cautionary message. I am still a little fixated on these recent Zogby numbers, and I certainly accept your explanation for them. But my recollection is that he has pretty consistently shown the race a lot closer than many of the other polls have–for instance, the ABC/Post Poll (and certainly the Newsweek and Time polls right after the GOP convention). So I am puzzled that now, after the debates, when intuitively you would think Kerry had strengthened his position vis a vis, that suddenly Bush seems to have pulled into a fairly good lead. And on top of that, we have ABC/Post now showing the race just about dead even. So I guess my question would be: why has Zogby suddenly seem to have veered off the road?
Ruy raises a good point, which is that everyone is saying Zogby’s the best because of the way he called the last election. In fact there is plenty of evidence to indicate that Zogby polls are highly fallible. I think one of his recent polls had undecides at 25%, which is way over what every other poll is telling us. He also has Bush and Kerry essentially tied among young singles, undecides, you get the idea. I just think the best approach is to go with the average of all the polls, excluding outliers, and then add 1-2 points for the suspected Kerry undercount.
maybe we should get rid of polling on elections. they seem to be being used to try to exercise undue influence on the system.