I was sorry to learn of the sudden death of 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Lieberman. But his long and stormy career did offer some important lessons about party loyalty, which I wrote about at New York:
Joe Lieberman was active in politics right up to the end. The former senator was the founding co-chair of the nonpartisan group No Labels, which is laying the groundwork for a presidential campaign on behalf of a yet-to-be-identified bipartisan “unity ticket.” Lieberman did not live to see whether No Labels will run a candidate. He died on Wednesday at 82 due to complications from a fall. But this last political venture was entirely in keeping with his long career as a self-styled politician of the pragmatic center, which often took him across party boundaries.
Lieberman’s first years in Connecticut Democratic politics as a state legislator and then state attorney general were reasonably conventional. He was known for a particular interest in civil rights and environmental protection, and his identity as an observant Orthodox Jew also drew attention. But in 1988, the Democrat used unconventional tactics in his challenge to Republican U.S. senator Lowell Weicker. Lieberman positioned himself to the incumbent’s right on selected issues, like Ronald Reagan’s military operations against Libya and Grenada. He also capitalized on longtime conservative resentment of his moderate opponent, winning prized endorsements from William F. and James Buckley, icons of the right. Lieberman won the race narrowly in an upset.
Almost immediately, Senator Lieberman became closely associated with the Democratic Leadership Council. The group of mostly moderate elected officials focused on restoring the national political viability of a party that had lost five of the six previous presidential elections; it soon produced a president in Bill Clinton. Lieberman became probably the most systematically pro-Clinton (or in the parlance of the time, “New Democrat”) member of Congress. This gave his 1998 Senate speech condemning the then-president’s behavior in the Monica Lewinsky scandal as “immoral” and “harmful” a special bite. He probably did Clinton a favor by setting the table for a reprimand that fell short of impeachment and removal, but without question, the narrative was born of Lieberman being disloyal to his party.
Perhaps it was his public scolding of Clinton that convinced Al Gore, who was struggling to separate himself from his boss’s misconduct, to lift Lieberman to the summit of his career. Gore tapped the senator to be his running mate in the 2000 election, making him the first Jewish vice-presidential candidate of a major party. He was by all accounts a disciplined and loyal running mate, at least until that moment during the Florida recount saga when he publicly disclaimed interest in challenging late-arriving overseas military ballots against the advice of the Gore campaign. You could argue plausibly that the ticket would have never been in a position to potentially win the state without Lieberman’s appeal in South Florida to Jewish voters thrilled by his nomination to become vice-president. But many Democrats bitter about the loss blamed Lieberman.
As one of the leaders of the “Clintonian” wing of his party, Lieberman was an early front-runner for the 2004 presidential nomination. A longtime supporter of efforts to topple Saddam Hussein, Lieberman had voted to authorize the 2003 invasion of Iraq, like his campaign rivals John Kerry and John Edwards and other notable senators including Hillary Clinton. Unlike most other Democrats, though, Lieberman did not back off this position when the Iraq War became a deadly quagmire. Ill-aligned with his party to an extent he did not seem to perceive, his presidential campaign quickly flamed out, but not before he gained enduring mockery for claiming “Joe-mentum” from a fifth-place finish in New Hampshire.
Returning to the Senate, Lieberman continued his increasingly lonely support for the Iraq War (alongside other heresies to liberalism, such as his support for private-school education vouchers in the District of Columbia). In 2006, Lieberman drew a wealthy primary challenger, Ned Lamont, who soon had a large antiwar following in Connecticut and nationally. As the campaign grew heated, President George W. Bush gave his Democratic war ally a deadly gift by embracing him and kissing his cheek after the State of the Union Address. This moment, memorialized as “The Kiss,” became central to the Lamont campaign’s claim that Lieberman had left his party behind, and the challenger narrowly won the primary. However, Lieberman ran against him in the general election as an independent, with significant back-channel encouragement from the Bush White House (which helped prevent any strong Republican candidacy). Lieberman won a fourth and final term in the Senate with mostly GOP and independent votes. He was publicly endorsed by Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani, among others from what had been the enemy camp.
The 2006 repudiation by his party appeared to break something in Lieberman. This once-happiest of happy political warriors, incapable of holding a grudge, seemed bitter, or at the very least gravely offended, even as he remained in the Senate Democratic Caucus (albeit as formally independent). When his old friend and Iraq War ally John McCain ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, Lieberman committed a partisan sin by endorsing him. His positioning between the two parties, however, still cost him dearly: McCain wanted to choose him as his running mate, before the Arizonan’s staff convinced him that Lieberman’s longtime pro-choice views and support for LGBTQ rights would lead to a convention revolt. The GOP nominee instead went with a different “high-risk, high-reward” choice: Sarah Palin.
After Barack Obama’s victory over Lieberman’s candidate, the new Democratic president needed every Democratic senator to enact the centerpiece of his agenda, the Affordable Care Act. He got Lieberman’s vote — but only after the senator, who represented many of the country’s major private-insurance companies, forced the elimination of the “public option” in the new system. It was a bitter pill for many progressives, who favored a more robust government role in health insurance than Obama had proposed.
By the time Lieberman chose to retire from the Senate in 2012, he was very near to being a man without a party, and he reflected that status by refusing to endorse either Obama or Mitt Romney that year. By then, he was already involved in the last great project of his political career, No Labels. He did, with some hesitation, endorse Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in 2016. But his long odyssey away from the yoke of the Democratic Party had largely landed him in a nonpartisan limbo. Right up until his death, he was often the public face of No Labels, particularly after the group’s decision to sponsor a presidential ticket alienated many early supporters of its more quotidian efforts to encourage bipartisan “problem-solving” in Congress.
Some will view Lieberman as a victim of partisan polarization, and others as an anachronistic member of a pro-corporate, pro-war bipartisan elite who made polarization necessary. Personally, I will remember him as a politician who followed — sometimes courageously, sometimes foolishly — a path that made him blind to the singular extremism that one party has exhibited throughout the 21st century, a development he tried to ignore to his eventual marginalization. But for all his flaws, I have no doubt Joe Lieberman remained until his last breath committed to the task he often cited via the Hebrew term tikkun olam: repairing a broken world.
George Phillies wrote:
Perhaps the most important number, both nationally and in many states that Bush seems to be carrying, is that the first digit of his numbers is a “4”.
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Ah, through all the buzz, a statement of clarity.
Bush is losing and has been losing a long time. If polls are viewed generally for the past several months, there are only limited moments in which Bush has pierced the “50”, and that only if you actually believe those polls.
Sabato said two months ago it would take a miracle for Bush to win, and he was right.
Bush has lost the election. I’m sure their major game plan is still to steal it. Florida and Ohio are where they plan to try to steal it.
The undecideds cannot possibly break for the President. If they were going to support Bush they’d be in his column before now. He’s the known quantity. He’s been consistent for the last 4 years and also during the debates. Anyone who is really undecided at this point has already resisted being swayed by Bush for 4 years and the entire campaign. That’s why there are so few real undecideds. What Kerry had to do and did during the debates is show he’s capable of governing.
Late rapid drifts in the polls can be substantial.
This year, there is an additional complication relative to 2000 that may tend to bias the polls toward Bush relative to the election. In 2000, Bush, Gore and Nader were on the ballot in every (for Nader, almost every) state, Buchanan’s campaign did not catch fire in that conservatives largely were happy with Bush, and Browne’s campaign was ineffective for reasons I outlined in my book Funding Liberty (Third Millennium Press http://3mpub.com/~phillies if anyone is interested.)
This time, Nader is not even on the ballot in many states, so a poll that includes CA or TX voters and asks them if they will vote for Nader is just plain wrong. (and those wrong votes came in fair part from Kerry). This time, the Libertarian campaign (Michael Badnarik) is on and off polling around even with Kerry, is on the ballot in every state except NH and OK, and has a largely unified party and a campaign staff that is campaigning actively. (If that last bit sounds odd as something to mention, see my book.) The Peroutka campaign, with positions many Democrats will find a bit odd, is also firing on at least some cylinders. However, Peroutka and Nader are almost never polled except by Rasmussen. The Nader Peroutka Badnarik flaws may cost Kerry in the polls a percent of the vote, and may give Bush one percent that he will not have in reality.
However, if you are going to drop polls as outliers, you should keep a list of the outlier polls, lest you analyse yourself into rejecting all the good polls and keeping only the bad ones.
Perhaps the most important number, both nationally and in many states that Bush seems to be carrying, is that the first digit of his numbers is a “4”. That’s a losing number. Democrats should not lose heart, should heed the wise advice of the article on which we are commenting, and could consider reminding their conservative and small government friends about Mr Badnarik.
cl8y-
Typically undecideds break for the challenger. I’ve seen polls suggesting that the undecideds, by a large majority, favor a change and have views closer to Kerry’s.
Anything’s possible, of course, but I’m optimistic about them at this point. The Rove quote from Abramowitz, above, fits with this point of view.
What are the chances of Bush occupying the Gore role from 2000? All the poles are close, and many not to be trusted, so how do we know they won’t break for the President instead of for Kerry? Is there something from the internals that would indicate this?
And then there’s the reminder also to be mindful of LV/RV distinctions. I see that the new Newsweek poll is out. By LV’s, Kerry is down 6%. By RV, just 2%, and just 1% in head to head RV.
I’d be willing to bet it’s the 6% that hits the media…
Ruy does well to point out turbulence. Stay calm and focused all.
One question is: these are all examples of the polls UNDERestimating the Democrats’ strength. What about OVERestimations too? Like in 2002 and surely SOME states in 2000, n’est-ce pas?
I think all the polls this year are way off due to the under polling of the 18-30 year olds.
Considering the newly registered voters must be largely from this demographic and their reliance of cellular phones for (nearly) all their telecommunications, these voters will hold a huge surprise impact on this election.
I have two daughters, one 29 and one 25 and I can tell you there is a tremendous difference in their participatory interest.
The older one, going through high school while Reagan and Bush were in office, is pretty much ambivalent about politics.
The younger one, going through high school while Clinton was president, is very much involved and in tune with political activism.
The older one will not vote whereas the younger one is definitely voting for Kerry.
The youth vote will go strong and early for Kerry and this element is what all the major polls will miss.
This effect will become known as the “Cell-Phone Effect” but is really the “Clinton Youth Effect”.
I think la is correct in that the best idea at this juncture is to do the unthinkable- ignore the polls b/c they aren’t going to help one bit. Over on Daily Kos you have people fretting over every little shift inthe polls- ie, Kerry was up by 2 last week, and down by 1 this week, and vice versa, and they look at the negative one as gospel. I think as I have said in other places on here this all feels like a Rorshach’s test to me- people are seeing what they want to see. Right now I spy a tie of around 47 to 48 percent so what does that mean? The same as always and I will say it like a broken record convince everyone, their mama and grandmama to volunteer, to phonebank and drive up the GOTV.
How much did the late DUI revelation factor into the Gore last minute surge and variance from the polls? Rove estimated 1 million votes.
To what extent was Gore’s improvement over the last polls due to DUI and to what extent was it turnout or polling erro?
I read the description of the methodology on the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll (the one that now shows Kerry only 2 points ahead in New Jersey). There was no mention of any weighting procedure. If they don’t weight, it means that Kerry is almost certainly much stronger than the numbers indicate.
I agree that Zogby’s state polls are pretty suspect.(as other pollsters).
His national polls for the presidential race were dead on in 2000 and 1996. I think tthats why we all give his polls so much weight. I’m not all that concerned about the fact kerry is down 4 in the zogby poll now, these jumps happen, i fully suspect that in a few days the polls may show kerry up by 3 or 4.
That was a nice run-down of the wacko poll results from 2000 — I wasn’t aware of those (or I forgot in the horror of what subsequently happened). I am left wondering, however, if there were also poll results that showed Gore with healthy leads in states that he actually lost. Can you give us examples?
The reason I ask is that one conclusion that can be drawn from your interesting post (aside from: don’t believe every poll result) is that the 2000 polling results were uniformily skewed against Gore. Was that the case?
An excellent cautionary message. I am still a little fixated on these recent Zogby numbers, and I certainly accept your explanation for them. But my recollection is that he has pretty consistently shown the race a lot closer than many of the other polls have–for instance, the ABC/Post Poll (and certainly the Newsweek and Time polls right after the GOP convention). So I am puzzled that now, after the debates, when intuitively you would think Kerry had strengthened his position vis a vis, that suddenly Bush seems to have pulled into a fairly good lead. And on top of that, we have ABC/Post now showing the race just about dead even. So I guess my question would be: why has Zogby suddenly seem to have veered off the road?
Ruy raises a good point, which is that everyone is saying Zogby’s the best because of the way he called the last election. In fact there is plenty of evidence to indicate that Zogby polls are highly fallible. I think one of his recent polls had undecides at 25%, which is way over what every other poll is telling us. He also has Bush and Kerry essentially tied among young singles, undecides, you get the idea. I just think the best approach is to go with the average of all the polls, excluding outliers, and then add 1-2 points for the suspected Kerry undercount.
maybe we should get rid of polling on elections. they seem to be being used to try to exercise undue influence on the system.