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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Teixeira: Dems Make Three Risky Bets

The following article by Ruy Teixeira, author of The Optimistic Leftist and other works of political analysis, is cross-posted from his Washington Post column:

Democrats are making three big bets as they prepare for the 2024 election. None are certain to pay off.

First, Democrats are assuming — or hoping — that Donald Trump, Mr. MAGA himself, will be the Republican nominee. Given the solid 30 percent of GOP voters that back the former president, this calculation isn’t crazy, but it’s hardly a sure thing. Trump’s popularity with Republican voters has fallen, and influential Republican donors, operatives and politicians are turning against him. After stinging losses in 2020 and 2022, Republicans are desperate for a winner.

The uncomfortable fact for Democrats is that other Republican candidates will present a more favorable age contrast to President Biden and, by virtue of not being Trump, will be much harder to depict as unhinged extremists. Partisan Democrats, especially partisan liberals, might well believe that all GOP candidates are exactly the same and exactly as evil. But they should not mistake their own views for those of ordinary voters.

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