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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Teixeira: It’s Not As Bad As You Think It Is….It’s Worse!

The following article by Ruy Teixeira, author of The Optimistic Leftist and other works of political analysis, is cross-posted from his blog:

In my latest for The Liberal Patriot, I consider the Democrats’ ongoing problems with Hispanic voters.

“The Democrats are steadily losing ground with Hispanic voters. The seriousness of this problem tends to be underestimated in Democratic circles for a couple of reasons: (1) they don’t realize how big the shift is; and (2) they don’t realize how thoroughly it undermines the most influential Democratic theory of the case for building their coalition.

On the latter, consider that most Democrats like to believe that, since a relatively conservative white population is in sharp decline while a presumably liberal nonwhite population keeps growing, the course of social and demographic change should deliver an ever-growing Democratic coalition. It is simply a matter of getting this burgeoning nonwhite population to the polls.

But consider further that, as the Census documents, the biggest single driver of the increased nonwhite population is the growth of the Hispanic population. They are by far the largest group within the Census-designated nonwhite population (19 percent vs. 12 percent for blacks). While their representation among voters considerably lags their representation in the overall population, it is fair to say that voting trends among this group will decisively shape voting trends among nonwhites in the future since their share of voters will continue to increase while black voter share is expected to remain roughly constant.

It therefore follows that, if Hispanic voting trends continue to move steadily against the Democrats, the pro-Democratic effect of nonwhite population growth will be blunted, if not cancelled out entirely, and that very influential Democratic theory of the case falls apart. That could—or should—provoke quite a sea change in Democratic thinking.

Turning to the nature and size of recent Hispanic shifts against the Democrats—it’s not as bad as you think, it’s worse. Here are ten points drawn from available data about the views and voting behavior of this population. Read ‘em and weep.

1. In the most recent Wall Street Journal poll, Hispanic voters were split evenly between Democrats and Republicans in the 2022 generic Congressional ballot. And in a 2024 hypothetical rematch between Trump and Biden, these voters favored Biden by only a single point. This is among a voter group that favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by 26 points according to Catalist (two party vote).”

Read all ten at The Liberal Patriot. And subscribe!

2 comments on “Teixeira: It’s Not As Bad As You Think It Is….It’s Worse!

  1. Michael Brennan on

    Most American voters polled, whatever their racial identification. have said that they consider affordable health care for ALL Americans “very important”.
    To win, let’s work for our right to healthcare!

    Reply
  2. Maria Ferrera on

    This is such a simplistic analysis. The demographic changes go well beyond ethnicity. There was a major education gap in voting patterns for Hispanics – that was similar to the white population with college educated Hispanics going for Biden and the democrats. Then there are other trends. The silent generation is dying off which voted for Trump being replaced by Boomers which are more evenly split. And the decreasing life expectancy of the white working class which means the educated boomers will be more likely to reach 65 than non educated boomers. You really need a multi variate analysis to tease out the effects of all these complex variables.

    Reply

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