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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

DCorps: Race unchanged, but millennials assured and white working class men impressed

The following article is cross-posted from a DCorps e–blast:

Debate leaves structure of the race untouched, which is extremely favorable to Biden uniting the country, on middle class values, education, and dealing with the racial strife. The debate affirmed powerfully that Trump governs only for his party and for billionaires and elites.

  • The debate cut the undecided in half — breaking evenly for Biden and Trump, but that helps Biden too.
  • Biden was strong and self-confident in the debate and gained standing with white millennials who were a key part of consolidating the progressive coalition.
  • White working class men may end up playing the biggest role. They came away feeling less positive about Trump (7 points) and they gave Biden 6 more points in the race against Trump.
  • White working class women move to Trump after the debate, but turned to Biden on every issue affecting the middle class.
  • Trump’s aggressive open up the economy drove away white millennials and other voters, but not the white working class who gave him higher marks on the economy.
  • Trump made big gains on health care and keeping health care costs down, but they were most pronounced with white working class women – who went in giving Biden an 11 point margin and came out, supporting Trump on health care by 6 points. Trump led on drug costs while Biden was defending the ACA.
  • The debate put Biden ahead on the big battle for the forgotten Americans that may settle how far Biden can take his advantage.
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