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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Teixeira: How Is Biden Running in the Battleground States?

The following article by Ruy Teixeira, author of The Optimistic Leftist and other works of political analysis, is cross-posted from his blog:

As all sentient humans know, simply winning the popular vote will not be enough for Biden since it is quite possible to do that and still lose the electoral college vote.

So, even though Biden has a solid lead nationally, how is he doing in the battleground states that will likely decide the election? Polls specifically targeted at battleground states mostly say he is doing quite well, though there is some disagreement between the polls.

Here are some recent ones:

1. Democracy Corps/Greenberg Research

Biden + 5 across 16 states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

Wisconsin (Clinton performance in same states in 2016: -1)

2. Democracy for All 2021/Hart Research

Biden +9 across 6 states: AZ, CO, IA, ME, MT, NC (Clinton performance in same states in 2016 -2 (self-reported))

3. :Avalanche Strategies

Biden +6 across 7 states (AZ, FL, Mi, NV, NC, PA, WI)

4. CNBC/Change Research

Biden -2 across 6 states (AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, WI)

Somewhat related, here is some recent commentary from G. Elliott Morris, the Economist’s US political data guy:

“Mentioned this the other day, but national and state polls disagree in a big way right now about the state of the 2020 race. National surveys put the contest around Biden +6 nationally, but state-level polls suggest he’s up by 8 or so.”….(Query from reader: “Is it possible that Biden is basically just replicating Clinton ‘16 in some big blue states (CA? NY? MA?) but running ahead of her elsewhere?”….(Morris answer: “Yep, this is what the polls are suggesting”)

One comment on “Teixeira: How Is Biden Running in the Battleground States?

  1. New Voice on

    Our President has a nickname for almost everyone. What nickname should we have for him? How about D.I.C. – Dotard in Charge.
    I can see Putin playing with DIC. Putin is ex-KGB. But for DIC be played by Rocketman. That’s something!
    Oh and now he is back on hydroxychloroquine. First, he is a pathological liar, so I don’t believe him. We should ask him what strength, how often. Also, is hydroxychloroquine prescription only? So what corrupt doctor prescribed it. This sounds fishy, fishy. Second, DIC is only interested in his pocket. So we should find out if he has holdings in hydroxychloroquine. I’ll bet good money DIC is trying to fill his pockets.

    Reply

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