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The Democratic Strategist

Political Strategy for a Permanent Democratic Majority

Teixeira: Some Good News from the Largest Swing State

The following article by Ruy Teixeira, author of The Optimistic Leftist and other works of political analysis, is cross-posted from his blog:

Florida: Ain’t No Sunshine When It’s Gone

That could be Donald Trump, paraphrasing the late, great Bill Withers, if the new University of North Florida poll is foreshadowing his fate in the Sunshine State. The UNF poll finds Biden ahead of Trump by 6 points, 46-40, including strong leads in the swing Central Florida regions of Tampa and Orlando. Trump’s lead among white voters in the state is a mere 10 points, catastrophically low compared to his 22 point margin in 2016.

It’s worth nothing that the poll also shows Trump’s approval rating on handling the coronavirus pandemic underwater at 45 percent approval/53 percent disapproval (including 43 percent strong disapproval). Perhaps Trump is not as immune from political harm from his dreadful handling of the crisis as many Democrats suppose.

It is fair to say that Trump’s chances of re-election in November without Florida are quite poor. Of course, he will pull out all the stops to prevail in the state again, but these data suggest he has a real challenge on his hands.

2 comments on “Teixeira: Some Good News from the Largest Swing State

  1. Joanne Tanner on

    And yet, today (4/7/20), in the NYT, there’s a story about “Trump and Florida, a Love Affair.” Basically saying, Trump will stop at nothing to get Florida in his column. And, he’s targeting South Florida (a tough one for him but if he can make some inroads, he could get Florida). He will stop at nothing and 6 points isn’t much of a lead. Biden needs to be stronger than he is right now…he needs to find a way to break out with more video’s, more social media, and Bernie needs to drop out now and let’s start the Unity Campaign.

    • Martin Lawfore on

      Ms. Tanner, since you wrote your comment, Senator Sanders has dropped out so it is high time to start the Unity Campaign you spoke of. The wide variety of candidates whom Biden had to compete with means that there is a wide variety of constituencies within the Democratic Party. What we need is a unifying theme to put them all firmly behind our nominee, something which will get the environmentalists, the racial minorities, the unions, all the voting blocs, to vote in unison. Can you suggest how to conduct the Unity Campaign, which the Democrats obviously need?


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